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[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

How will Brexit go?

  • The EU will continue to grow but will change to address the feelings that drove Brexit.

    Votes: 13 11.4%

  • The EU will continue to grow but will not address the feelings that drove Brexit

    Votes: 16 14.0%

  • The EU will see more countries pulling out after we leave.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • The UK will break up as a consequence of Brexit.

    Votes: 26 22.8%

  • The UK will still hold after all is done and dusted.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • There’ll be a second Brexit related referendum. (Independence / Brexit etc)

    Votes: 22 19.3%

  • We’ll end up with soft Brexit and end up staying within EFTA.

    Votes: 18 15.8%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit, a disaster ending with WTO rules.

    Votes: 29 25.4%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit which will be a success, even under WTO rules

    Votes: 18 15.8%
  • Total voters
    114
Vadinho said:
At this point, the choices are limited to only two options. One is a new referendum. If Brexit wins, the outcome of this effort will be the same as the second option. The second option is a hard Brexit. So in reality there are only two possible outcomes now. Remain or hard Brexit.
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If Remain won narrowly (which is realistically their best hope), probably on a reduced turnout, what would that settle?


The second vote would have had less legitimacy than the first, the score would be 1-1.


We all know intuitively that 1-1 is a draw, which means a third referendum. Why not make it like the World Series - best of 7?
 
Infinite Chaos said:
Sometimes when another person asks you for clarification or examples - it's to aid the discussion so the next time on this thread when you are asked for clarification for a statement you have made, could you try answering the question directly and in a more helpful way next time?

It helps with the discussion.
Click to expand...

I do not wish to insult my interlocutors by belaboring the obvious.
 
Interesting comments from Monsieur Macron that "the only people who will suffer as a result of the referendum is the British public."

Coming from a man whose leadership has given rise to some of the worst riots in Paris since the '60s.


"In the time we are living, it says a lot about what referendums which seemed nice to create.

It’s a referendum that has been manipulated. Manipulated from the outside by a lot of what we call fake news, where everything and anything was said and now they are being told ‘figure it out yourselves'.

Result: it is not true.

‘We [the Leave campaign] have lied to the people, and what they [the public] have chosen is not possible.'

Good luck to the representatives of the nation who has to implement a thing which doesn’t exist and explain to the people: ‘You have voted on a thing, we lied to you."

https://www.indy100.com/article/bre...iadswiqyT9tBZvGiQw73jngjQMCGq5HlTJmdsmku1JPKY
 
The views of Macron will have a big influence on British public opinion. Just like Obama when he visited to lecture people on how to vote :roll:.
 
If de Gaulle were still around and running things in France, this whole shebang would never have materialized for the English.:mrgreen:
 
Chagos said:
If de Gaulle were still around and running things in France, this whole shebang would never have materialized for the English.:mrgreen:
Click to expand...
Yea and the UK would be the poor man of Europe.

Sent from my Honor 8X using Tapatalk
 
Westphalian said:
If Remain won narrowly (which is realistically their best hope), probably on a reduced turnout, what would that settle?


The second vote would have had less legitimacy than the first, the score would be 1-1.


We all know intuitively that 1-1 is a draw, which means a third referendum. Why not make it like the World Series - best of 7?
Click to expand...


You do have a point but at least if remain won the 2nd the UK would not have to endure the hardships of a hard Brexit. I want to believe that two years on, the voters in the UK now know more about what it really means to leave then they did originally. I cannot see how Brexit can ever help the citizens of the UK. In fact, I believe it will hasten its break up. Ireland unifies and Scotland goes to the EU bringing back Hadrians Wall.
 
Vadinho said:
I want to believe that two years on, the voters in the UK now know more about what it really means to leave then they did originally.
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In the last two years of arguments that it is a huge error, I have not detected the slightest change in position of the leave camp of those I know, and I have only had one person tell me he thought he had made a mistake.
 
Snazzy said:
In the last two years of arguments that it is a huge error, I have not detected the slightest change in position of the leave camp of those I know, and I have only had one person tell me he thought he had made a mistake.
Click to expand...

That is unfortunate. We have the same type of person here in the States, they still support Trump. It is mind boggling how otherwise rational people can defend irrational choices. There is no upside for the people of the UK to Brexit. I hope they remain but from where it stands today, I fear the UK is in for a very, very hard Brexit.
 
Vadinho said:
~ I cannot see how Brexit can ever help the citizens of the UK ~
Click to expand...

For a large proportion of the public - it's never been about economic success or economic growth. You will still read (or see on TV) people who fundamentally believe that Britain is ruled from Brussels, others will say the EU is a fascist superstate and for another group - it's about EU migration. For this group, facts have never mattered and never will - it's about "gut feel." Their "gut feel" is that the EU is somehow a threat to the UK and has been in control of our laws and destiny for 45 years. These are the purest hard Brexiteers.

A smaller number do believe there will be economic growth and new opportunity with Brexit but these are the ones who would have supported Theresa May's deal - understanding that there would be an extended negotiation period to finalise the actual details.

An even smaller number - usually business people want a hard Brexit because there are possible economic developments and opportunities for them - interestingly, many of them have also fallen foul of EU law and been fined or faced censure - such as Dyson / JCB while others want a pure and hard Brexit for the nation but are either moving their business headquarters into Europe or actually moving there to live.

Jack Hays said:
I do not wish to insult my interlocutors by belaboring the obvious.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I agree asking you to actually and honestly engage in discussion without dodging is an insult the the intelligent. I don't know what I keep trying to get you to respond properly in the different threads I've bumped into you on - it always ends the same with you dodging once hard questions start coming your way.
 
Westphalian said:
If Remain won narrowly (which is realistically their best hope), probably on a reduced turnout, what would that settle?


The second vote would have had less legitimacy than the first, the score would be 1-1.


We all know intuitively that 1-1 is a draw, which means a third referendum. Why not make it like the World Series - best of 7?
Click to expand...
If you're going to dismiss the validity of a theorized 2nd vote on an equally theoretical (but indeed probable) narrow margin, one wonders why you'd attach any validity to the first vote.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
For a large proportion of the public...............~
Click to expand...
Conundrums will continue to abound in that any counter proposal (hopefully arrived at) that falls short of hard Brexit (out without compromises), can hardly be put thru on a parliamentary majority, if not put to the people first.

Because if that were attempted, cries of the will of the people having been betrayed will never end.

That such a "will" remains undefined in detail to this day will be of little import, seeing how everybody believes his/her personal will to represent all.
 
So?

Is this already a glimpse of things to come?

Londonderry bomb: PSNI say two arrests have been made
Police in Londonderry have arrested two men in their 20s in connection with a bomb in the city on Saturday.

They said the attack may have been carried out by dissident republican group the New IRA.
Click to expand...
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46937061
 
A ‘non-starter’: Varadkar and Coveney reject backstop treaty plan

Bilateral treaty envisaged both governments bypassing EU for deal on invisible border
Click to expand...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/wor...coveney-reject-backstop-treaty-plan-1.3764268

It should be noted that no formal approach of this kind from the UK was received by the Irish government, details of such a treaty were merely reported upon by the Sunday Times this weekend.

With ye aulde English principle of "divide and rule", wouldn't surprise me though if some unofficial approach was attempted.

Very much in character with May's constant conniving in trying to by-pass the EU and go to individual heads of government, all in the pursuit of turning one against the other.

Where one could grant her to be trying all angles in this situation, based on her long record of cognitive dissonance (and if an approach was indeed made) one may suspect that she remains as stupid as her obstinacy and stubbornness always make her.

If the EU so far refused to stab Ireland in the back, it takes a special kind of stupid to think that Ireland would stab the EU.
 
“You’ve got a Leave population and a Remain Parliament,” he told BBC1’s "The Andrew Marr Show."

“Parliament has not got the right to hijack the Brexit process because Parliament said to the people of this country ‘We make a contract with you, you will make the decision and we will honour it’.
Click to expand...

I'm beginning to think we need a 3 month hiatus granted by the EU in extending the article 50 process so that we can hold a General Election PDQ to test the veracity of this. It will get nasty and vicious but if he is right then the quickest resolution is a Parliamentary reshuffle where Remain and Leave candidates are put forward.

Personally I do think the referendum should be honoured but if there truly is a Leave population then that Leave population should have the opportunity to change Parliament by election.
The Conservative Brexiteers should have voted May down last week to force a GE.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
I'm beginning to think we need a 3 month hiatus granted by the EU in extending the article 50 process so that we can hold a General Election PDQ to test the veracity of this. It will get nasty and vicious but if he is right then the quickest resolution is a Parliamentary reshuffle where Remain and Leave candidates are put forward.
Click to expand...
Actually......--->

1. The assessment of there being a Leave population is based on the results of the 2016 referendum. IOW it says nothing about today where nobody can tell any numbers for sure.

2. The UK Parliament IS sovereign and that means it can "unmake any law whatever: and, further, that no person or body is recognised by the law of England as having a right to override or set aside the legislation of Parliament."
( A.V. Dicey's Introduction to the Study of the Law of the Constitution (1885)

With regard to point 2., that means that it has every right to do with the Brexit process whatever it decides and can vote upon in majority.

The morality of whatever action it should choose being, of course, a different matter altogether.
Personally I do think the referendum should be honoured but if there truly is a Leave population then that Leave population should have the opportunity to change Parliament by election.
The Conservative Brexiteers should have voted May down last week to force a GE.
Click to expand...
I'm inclined to agree on that the referendum result should be honoured even if Leavers voted on something they knew nothing about. If ignorance nullifies any and all votes, let's just have a dictator and be done.

Even where I don't cotton much to the currently popular theme of not honouring the referendum amounting to the end of democracy. People constantly spouting this convenient sound bite need to remember that we have elections every 5 years and not one to end all further ones.
 
Chagos said:
~ 2. The UK Parliament IS sovereign and that means it can "unmake any law whatever: and, further, that no person or body is recognised by the law of England as having a right to override or set aside the legislation of Parliament."
( A.V. Dicey's Introduction to the Study of the Law of the Constitution (1885)
Click to expand...

You know as well as I do that a large proportion of Leave voters believe that sovereignty lies in Europe and nothing will convince them otherwise - even Parliament choosing to deal with Brexit by itself.

Chagos said:
~ need to remember that we have elections every 5 years and not one to end all further ones.
Click to expand...

You hopefully have noticed that those who swear blind that we are ruled from Brussels will also say that we should not have a second referendum because it will apparently end Democracy. Personally, rather than hang all politicians as you keep asking - I want all those who spout rubbish about the end of democracy to be banned from ever voting again. They had their one vote, any further vote on any matter ever again apparently will end democracy so we need to be saved from that terrible fate.....
 
Infinite Chaos said:
~............... Personally, rather than hang all politicians as you keep asking ......................~
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spoil sport, just won't let me have ANY fun.:2razz:
I want all those who spout rubbish about the end of democracy to be banned from ever voting again. They had their one vote, any further vote on any matter ever again apparently will end democracy so we need to be saved from that terrible fate.....
Click to expand...
Well, that would work as well, I suppose.;)
 
Infinite Chaos said:
For a large proportion of the public - it's never been about economic success or economic growth. You will still read (or see on TV) people who fundamentally believe that Britain is ruled from Brussels, others will say the EU is a fascist superstate and for another group - it's about EU migration. For this group, facts have never mattered and never will - it's about "gut feel." Their "gut feel" is that the EU is somehow a threat to the UK and has been in control of our laws and destiny for 45 years. These are the purest hard Brexiteers.

A smaller number do believe there will be economic growth and new opportunity with Brexit but these are the ones who would have supported Theresa May's deal - understanding that there would be an extended negotiation period to finalise the actual details.

An even smaller number - usually business people want a hard Brexit because there are possible economic developments and opportunities for them - interestingly, many of them have also fallen foul of EU law and been fined or faced censure - such as Dyson / JCB while others want a pure and hard Brexit for the nation but are either moving their business headquarters into Europe or actually moving there to live.



Yeah, I agree asking you to actually and honestly engage in discussion without dodging is an insult the the intelligent. I don't know what I keep trying to get you to respond properly in the different threads I've bumped into you on - it always ends the same with you dodging once hard questions start coming your way.
Click to expand...

I don't recall any hard questions, and I certainly don't dodge.
 
Theresa May seems to have abandoned (if she ever truly considered them seriously) cross party agreement and now seeks to create an agreement for her deal with her own backbenchers and the DUP. Personally I think the ERG are becoming another party within the party and will never support her.

We have yet another interesting week in politics here...

Jack Hays said:
I don't recall any hard questions
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No surprise there.

Jack Hays said:
certainly don't dodge.
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No, you just vigorously avoid them.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
Theresa May seems to have abandoned (if she ever truly considered them seriously) cross party agreement and now seeks to create an agreement for her deal with her own backbenchers and the DUP. Personally I think the ERG are becoming another party within the party and will never support her.

We have yet another interesting week in politics here...



No surprise there.



No, you just vigorously avoid them.
Click to expand...

Hard Brexit is the likely outcome because there's no majority for any other solution.
 
Jack Hays said:
Hard Brexit is the likely outcome because there's no majority for any other solution.
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How do we know this without holding a referendum or elections?

Sent from my Honor 8X using Tapatalk
 
PeteEU said:
How do we know this without holding a referendum or elections?

Sent from my Honor 8X using Tapatalk
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There is no need for further referendum or elections really. Unless some other deal/agreement is reached by negotiation the defacto outcome of triggering Article 50 is the UK leaves on March 29th 2019... End of story. In my humble opinion basic common sense should indicate that the only sensible question "Leave or Remain" has been asked and answered. The more complex you try to make the ballot question the more you water down it's efficiency. Had the politicians accepted the will of the people and spent their time constructively trying to fulfill their (oft repeated) promises to do so it would have been fairly straight forward to end this process with something constructive on both sides.
 
Seems like a hard Brexit is in the cards. The Brit economy is going to take a hard hit I think.
 
GerryUK said:
There is no need for further referendum or elections really. Unless some other deal/agreement is reached by negotiation the defacto outcome of triggering Article 50 is the UK leaves on March 29th 2019... End of story. In my humble opinion basic common sense should indicate that the only sensible question "Leave or Remain" has been asked and answered. The more complex you try to make the ballot question the more you water down it's efficiency. Had the politicians accepted the will of the people and spent their time constructively trying to fulfill their (oft repeated) promises to do so it would have been fairly straight forward to end this process with something constructive on both sides.
Click to expand...

So basically you are advocating no elections at all, despite people dying off.. so who should take over if May dies? Some random white male from the Tory party? No more elections ever!!!!

It is highly undemocratic and frankly insulting to think that a person or population can not change their minds about issues... especially when the facts and conditions change over time. 100 years ago, the position of the state run by white males, was that women were too stupid and fragile to be given the right to vote. 70 years ago, the defacto rules was that women could not run long distances and frankly were discouraged to do any sort of physical exercise.. too fragile. Times change...

In the 2 years since Brexit, things have changed.

1) We now know that the Brexit camp lied.
2) We know they were funded and supported by enemies of the state.
3) We know the consequences of leaving can be highly problematic without giving any real benefits.

Now I knew all those above before Brexit, but hey getting through to a brainwashed people who actually think that Brussels rule over them aint easy when the very media that is supposed to be the 4th Estate, is actually owned by people who will benefit hugely from Brexit as they have bet against the UK and its finances beforehand.

So why is it that the people are not allowed to change their minds?
 
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