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[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

How will Brexit go?


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Re: How will Brexit go?

We are going to still have access with little to no barriers. The EU needs our consumer buying power.

I appreciate the optimism Higgins, but I think it would be a reckless EU that allowed the UK to trade as normal without contributing to the overall project. I know that Brexiters are firmly of the belief that the EU needs the UK market more than the UK needs the EU market. I think the two are intrinsically co-dependent and that both will suffer.
 
~ the EU will offer EU citizenship access to any Brit that wants ~

That's associated EU citizenship for Brits based in European countries. Surely it wouldn't apply to UK nationals living and working in the UK and this plan still might need approval by UK Gov.
 
That's associated EU citizenship for Brits based in European countries. Surely it wouldn't apply to UK nationals living and working in the UK and this plan still might need approval by UK Gov.

We shall see. There are benefits of being an EU citizen that cant be transferred... free medical and such, because it relies on the cooperation of the country of origin. However, unlike the May government, the EU has come out in a positive way wanting to guarantee British citizens rights in the EU.. however that cant happen as long as the UK does not do the same for EU citizens in the UK.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

I appreciate the optimism Higgins, but I think it would be a reckless EU that allowed the UK to trade as normal without contributing to the overall project. I know that Brexiters are firmly of the belief that the EU needs the UK market more than the UK needs the EU market. I think the two are intrinsically co-dependent and that both will suffer.
I'm no great fan of the "who needs whom more or even most" theories either, nevertheless the fact that the EU sells more to the UK than it buys from there is often (almost comically) confused by ardent Brexiteers with some sort of favour being granted in the West-East cross channel direction. Recklessly ignored in this is that a country's trade deficit often results from its inability to sufficiently self-supply at acceptable effort and is not principally always a case of rolling in the money to such an extent that it needn't bother along those lines. Because it can simply buy what it's not producing.

It's indisputable that Brexit will hurt both sides and that the loss of the UK consumer market would (will) be a grave blow to EU suppliers. But one also needs to see the number of EU companies producing goods in the UK and, pertinently here, the share of those goods that then go back to the EU.

Let one side start the dance of imposing import tariffs (with the other retaliating) and the UK can , just as an example, kiss its car industry (which isn't British anyway) good bye virtually for good. Because whatever foreign makers deem fit to produce in the UK to meet market demands there, will certainly not maintain the number of jobs currently in place.

IF having a production site in UK is deemed worth the trouble at all, seeing how that location will lose its attraction for satisfying the overall EU market. When that can be done from plants already existing elsewhere in the EU.

I raised a similar point (with BMW as the example) in a thread dealing with envisaged US protectionism. Namely that BMW has created a considerable number of jobs in the US but that, just all on its own (forget VW and Merc) it exports more cars FROM the US than GM and Ford together.

That's "just" the automotive industry but even here we're getting silly if we dwell on pipe-dreaming over "how they need to buy our stuff more than we need to sell it". Or vice versa "they need to sell more than we need to buy".

Put import tariffs alone on stuff moving to the UK and affordability will sink, add unavoidable job losses and the attractiveness of the market will as well.

I'd very much hope for a settlement that avoids any of this, yet I don't dwell in cloud cuckoo land sufficiently (yet) to not see that mechanisms of today forbid the EU to grant any special status to anyone leaving. If it did, it would provide incentive for others to follow suit and then it might as well dissolve itself right here and now.

It isn't just about political principles (however nebulously defined), it's about business. And in business comes a time to cut one's losses rather than to throw good money after bad.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

The real issue is how hard the EU wants to make it. Nothing else. The treaty could be done in a very short period and not change any economically decisive terms of trade. If the negotiators wanted, the economic effects could actually be win/win. It is clear, however, that the EU cannot do that. Any number of EU dignitaries have said as much. The UK must not be as well or better off after its exit. That would destabilize the EU and risk its very existence.

The EU is not a cohesive entity. Here the Commission is pulling one way and the most important Member State another. My guess is that the UK will end up with a deal leaving it more or less where it is now - but which the Eurocrats can portray as being worse off. Germany, which will be paying an even greater percentage of the EU's budget after the UK's departure, will decide.
 
We shall see. There are benefits of being an EU citizen that cant be transferred... free medical and such, because it relies on the cooperation of the country of origin. However, unlike the May government, the EU has come out in a positive way wanting to guarantee British citizens rights in the EU.. however that cant happen as long as the UK does not do the same for EU citizens in the UK.

True, I hope you read my comment of surprise when I heard Farage strongly suggest this on Wednesday? However it seems the UK Gov want to use those people as pawns. That's all beside the point however about those passports. Guy Verhofstadt is apparently pushing this idea quite hard but let's see where it ends up.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

I'm no great fan of the "who needs whom more or even most" theories either, nevertheless the fact that the EU sells more to the UK than it buys from there is often (almost comically) confused by ardent Brexiteers with some sort of favour being granted in the West-East cross channel direction. Recklessly ignored in this is that a country's trade deficit often results from its inability to sufficiently self-supply at acceptable effort and is not principally always a case of rolling in the money to such an extent that it needn't bother along those lines. Because it can simply buy what it's not producing.

It's indisputable that Brexit will hurt both sides and that the loss of the UK consumer market would (will) be a grave blow to EU suppliers. But one also needs to see the number of EU companies producing goods in the UK and, pertinently here, the share of those goods that then go back to the EU.~

I'm always puzzled when people claim the EU will collapse because it could lose a market worth 16% of it exports.
 
I incidentally made the mistake in past posts (repeatedly:3oops:) of stating that just one EU member's veto on the (finally) negotiated terms of divorce would nullify any agreement.

That is totally wrong where article 50 is concerned.

As such any negotiated terms of divorce have to be agreed by at least 20 EU countries AND those have to represent 65 pct of the EU population.

One of the purposes of this regulation obviously being to discourage outside attempts at "divide and rule".
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

I'm always puzzled when people claim the EU will collapse because it could lose a market worth 16% of it exports.
Whistling in the dark!

Fervently hoping that this would be the case and so favourable conditions granted to the UK are simply a must.

Where dogs at least have something of a brain, tails clearly do not.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

The EU is not a cohesive entity. Here the Commission is pulling one way and the most important Member State another. My guess is that the UK will end up with a deal leaving it more or less where it is now - but which the Eurocrats can portray as being worse off. Germany, which will be paying an even greater percentage of the EU's budget after the UK's departure, will decide.
Do you base your guesses on anything of substance (and concurrent analysis of same) or do you just voice what comes to mind?

For those interested beyond wild guesses, if the (til yesterday) current EU-28 model is replaced by a future EU-27 model, based on current payment figures Germany would be paying around €2.5 billion more into the kitty (about +17 pct.).

To put this into more of a perspective, that would be around 0.75 pct of the 2017 German national budget or, for more perspective, around a tenth of the budget of Berlin.

But it isn't as simple as just that, the figure does not account for the savings that the EU will incur overall by the sums no longer going to London and, far more importantly, makes no allowance on what the UK may be paying to the EU for ANY form of access (Norway ring a bell?)

So even if the latter issue doesn't even occur ("hey, EU, go shove access"), the notion that a sum like the above will have Germany bending over backwards is truly laughable.

Specifically in view of the fact that such a rollover would somewhat endanger what is far more important to Germany than the UK can ever be.

I'll leave the guesswork on what that might be to whoever cares to engage in it.:lol:
 
True, I hope you read my comment of surprise when I heard Farage strongly suggest this on Wednesday? However it seems the UK Gov want to use those people as pawns. That's all beside the point however about those passports. Guy Verhofstadt is apparently pushing this idea quite hard but let's see where it ends up.

Well Farage needs to have an EU citizenship if he is to continue to have sex with his European lovers or even his wife who is German :) Seems he has a type!
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

I'm always puzzled when people claim the EU will collapse because it could lose a market worth 16% of it exports.

And yet the UK wont, despite it losing 48% of its exports... :)
 
And yet the UK wont, despite it losing 48% of its exports... :)

You can't argue the case with a Brexiter. That market of 400 million will collapse because 60 million are leaving.

Well Farage needs to have an EU citizenship if he is to continue to have sex with his European lovers or even his wife who is German :) Seems he has a type!

Hasn't he separated from his wife?
 
You can't argue the case with a Brexiter. That market of 400 million will collapse because 60 million are leaving.



Hasn't he separated from his wife?

yea he has... his German wife, and he is sleeping with his French mistress..For a man who wants all foreigners out of the UK, he surely likes screwing them :)
 
Well Farage needs to have an EU citizenship if he is to continue to have sex with his European lovers or even his wife who is German :) Seems he has a type!

You need to have EU citizenship to have sex with Europeans? We left a political economic union not the species
 
I appreciate the optimism Higgins, but I think it would be a reckless EU that allowed the UK to trade as normal without contributing to the overall project. I know that Brexiters are firmly of the belief that the EU needs the UK market more than the UK needs the EU market. I think the two are intrinsically co-dependent and that both will suffer.

There is no indication based on the markets that the Euro zone can afford to be so picky when it comes to trade and who they export to. Companies like Renault, Audi etc are going to be whispering in there governments ears, we're a huge market for them.
 
There is no indication based on the markets that the Euro zone can afford to be so picky when it comes to trade and who they export to. Companies like Renault, Audi etc are going to be whispering in there governments ears, we're a huge market for them.
I addressed the car industry in relation to (and in) the UK in post #54.

Just to add that in 2016 Audi sold around 1.8 million cars worldwide, round 900 thousand in Europe of which around 180 thousand went to UK.

Where Renault is concerned, we'll have to wait and see what it does with (cartel authority's decision pending) its newly acquired GM-Europe division. Read Opel and Vauxhall, both of which reaping in such deficits that GM decided to flog them.

With both Vectras and Astras produced in the UK and much of them re-exported back to "the continent", it'll all depend on what import tariffs are imposed upon the parts without which neither could be built in the UK. That'll have impact on prices achievable both in UK and on "the continent".

It's not going to be a question of "being picky", it'll be a question of "worthwhile" or not.
 
You need to have EU citizenship to have sex with Europeans? We left a political economic union not the species

You really think that the EU will allow him into the EU once the UK leaves? :)
 
There is no indication based on the markets that the Euro zone can afford to be so picky when it comes to trade and who they export to. Companies like Renault, Audi etc are going to be whispering in there governments ears, we're a huge market for them.

In order to trade, England must still meet the EU standards, worker mobility, and state aid rules, never mind wasting millions on nineteen-fifties style passports and dreams of empires lost.

" ...Mrs May is not just making the wrong choices, but also downplaying awkward trade-offs. By promising barrier-free access to the single market while stopping EU migrants and ending the ECJ’s jurisdiction, she is still telling Britons they can have their cake and eat it. Although she concedes that exporters to the EU will have to obey EU rules, the more Mrs May insists on controlling EU migration and escaping the ECJ, the less barrier-free will be Britain’s overall access to the single market. This is not just because free movement of people is a condition for the EU, nor because it will be hard to secure tariff-free access for trade in goods, something both sides can readily agree on. It is because the biggest obstacles swept away by the single market are not tariffs or customs checks, but non-tariff barriers such as standards, regulations and state-aid rules. Unless Britain accepts these, which implies a role for the system’s referee, the ECJ, it cannot operate freely in the single market—as even American firms trading in the EU have found. ..."


http://www.economist.com/news/leade...rexitbeginsbritainsbrutalencounterwithreality
 
In order to trade, England must still meet the EU standards, worker mobility, and state aid rules ~

I find it hard to see around the current position. I'm very against Brexit as the way things are headed will damage the UK economy however possible solutions

  • Some form of UK specific enhanced WTO rules that apply to the UK. Not quite tariff free but not full WTO. We are not going to have our cake and eat it free.
  • Work Permits for EU migrants to allow various areas of UK industry to survive.
  • Reciprocal agreement on EU citizens status in the UK and for UK citizens in the EU.

Other things like product standards, worker rights and emissions standards and recycling / environment policy don't need to change. I can't see how the EU could agree to let us have the free trade agreement the Brexiteers think is out there. We just don't have the clout to force it to happen.
 
Seems some Tories want a war with Spain now over Gib.... pathetic attempt to distract over the failing Brexit plan they have...
 
Seems some Tories want a war with Spain now over Gib.... pathetic attempt to distract over the failing Brexit plan they have...

say Spain was attacked by the rUK ... i think you'll find you might get a few volunteers from Scotland


... England/London still thinks the UK is a world power/empire ... the truth is their jingoistic rhetoric will actually hinder their Brexit negotiations
 
We are about to find out what happens when a nation becomes so uncertain about its economic future that it suddenly stops buying clothes ~

Business Insider Link.

Some interesting charts and findings here.
 
Angela Merkel warns Britain over Brexit ‘illusions’

In her toughest message on Brexit to date, Ms Merkel pledged that the EU would put its interests first and manage the negotiations in its chosen way.

This involves dealing first with the exit bill, in defiance of Britain’s demands for the financial issues to be handled at the same time as talks on a new relationship. .....~

~..............."I have to put it in such clear terms because unfortunately I have the feeling that some in Britain still have illusions,” said the chancellor, the EU’s most powerful leader. “But that would be a waste of time.”
https://www.ft.com/content/4deb1d40-2b3c-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7

I'd certainly agree with her last comment above.

In view of this stance being nothing new (Merkel has been saying this all along), Theresa May immediately responding by calling it all a conspiracy by "the 27" seems to justify the call of "get real".

Of course May knows all of this, it's just playing to the gallery of the coming snap election.

If anyone thought things could get no more dishonest than with Boris and Co., better get real as well.
 
Angela Merkel warns Britain over Brexit ‘illusions’

https://www.ft.com/content/4deb1d40-2b3c-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7

I'd certainly agree with her last comment above.

In view of this stance being nothing new (Merkel has been saying this all along), Theresa May immediately responding by calling it all a conspiracy by "the 27" seems to justify the call of "get real".

Of course May knows all of this, it's just playing to the gallery of the coming snap election.

If anyone thought things could get no more dishonest than with Boris and Co., better get real as well.

She really pulled out the nationalistic hammer on this one, but a lot are calling her on it with.. "what did you expect!!". She sounds more like a spoilt brat but of course the faithful brainwashed will love what she is saying.

And new numbers out, UK economy is tanking as consumers stop spending because the falling pound has increased prices.
 
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