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[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

How will Brexit go?

  • The EU will continue to grow but will change to address the feelings that drove Brexit.

    Votes: 13 11.4%

  • The EU will continue to grow but will not address the feelings that drove Brexit

    Votes: 16 14.0%

  • The EU will see more countries pulling out after we leave.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • The UK will break up as a consequence of Brexit.

    Votes: 26 22.8%

  • The UK will still hold after all is done and dusted.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • There’ll be a second Brexit related referendum. (Independence / Brexit etc)

    Votes: 22 19.3%

  • We’ll end up with soft Brexit and end up staying within EFTA.

    Votes: 18 15.8%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit, a disaster ending with WTO rules.

    Votes: 29 25.4%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit which will be a success, even under WTO rules

    Votes: 18 15.8%
  • Total voters
    114
Parliament ceded decision making authority to the people in the referendum.

The people voted to leave the EU and the government pledged to implement the will of the people.

Parliament (already believed by most Leave voters to be out of touch) can not now fail to deliver Brexit, and instead go back to the people and say - 'vote again, you got it wrong last time'.

Such would be a fatal blow to the credibility of democracy. It would be the first time in UK history that the outcome of a vote (the biggest mass participation vote in UK history) had been ignored. Democracies can not afford to do that.
 
Due to the distortions of the FPTP electoral system there are plenty of UK votes where this has already happened, not to mention the first Scottish devolution referendum in 1979.
 
Chagos said:
I incidentally made the mistake in past posts (repeatedly:3oops:) of stating that just one EU member's veto on the (finally) negotiated terms of divorce would nullify any agreement.

That is totally wrong where article 50 is concerned.

As such any negotiated terms of divorce have to be agreed by at least 20 EU countries AND those have to represent 65 pct of the EU population.

One of the purposes of this regulation obviously being to discourage outside attempts at "divide and rule".
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Please correct me if I'm wrong but it is my understanding that the triggering of Article 50 needs no agreement from anybody... it is only the future dealings between the "ex" member and the remaining 27 that requires ratification. As a fervent Brexiteer I had stupidly hoped any future relationship could be negotiated in a framework of mutual respect. Now fervently believe that the half hearted approach by UK politicians (who largely want to remain), together with (a very understandable) wish by the EU to make a point to other disgruntled populations has brought things to their current deplorable state.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

Infinite Chaos said:
Oh I agree we were a pain in the butt. Sometimes I think we saved you from yourselves but overall, it'll be interesting to see how things progress once we have left. I don't think other countries will leave unless the EU moves to address many of the fears and concerns the public in many countries have.

Anyhow, very interesting program on TV last night. If you can see it, watch this.

BBC iPlayer - Question Time - Britain after Brexit
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Yes The UK has been holding the EU back for many years. Largely because our politicians have lied to us for a generation. The EU has always been a longterm project for greater integration on the globalist/borderless model... and in fairness has never made a secret of this. In the UK it was sold to the population as the Common Market, a simple free trade area and anybody since who was stupid enough to try to tell the people the truth was shouted down as a knuckle dragging xenophobe.

This con job continues in the UK. All those who want to remain continue to use trade and finance fear mongering to color the argument while being very careful not to mention the future plans, already well advanced, for greater integration in defence: taxation: bugets and law;
 
Surely it can't be beyond the wit of man to work out a fair and amicable deal. This 'mess' is a pure political confection created by people with vested interests who are trying to convince ordinary people that they're too stupid to understand the bigger picture and are happy to use smoke and mirrors to do so no matter who it harms.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
You can say that again. The Hard Brexit mob were the same ones who rubbished analysts and financial experts on the costs. When it came to major businesses warning that jobs would be lost the hard Brexiteers said don't believe the globalists and big business such as automotive and other engineering - not to mention the city.

The funny thing is Northern Ireland is being offered a deal that Scotland and the SNP wold kill for - one foot in the EU and one foot out with the WTO.



The biggest mess imaginable.
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As a proud member of the "Hard Brexit Mob" let me point out:
These are the same people who led the scare campaign to get us to join the Euro. There are an equal number of analysts and financial experts who give a totally opposite view of the costs. History and the current state of unemployment, economic growth, etc within the EuroZone are facts. Who would you believe?
The major businesses create a much smaller percentage of jobs in the UK than the small and medium business sector who have nothing to do with exporting to Europe and ALL claim that release from the restrictive practices forced on them by the EU would encourage growth and employment.

To lump NI together with Scotland and the SNP shows a total disregard for the people in both countries to the benefit of self serving politicians.
 
GerryUK said:
As a proud member of the "Hard Brexit Mob" let me point out:
These are the same people who led the scare campaign to get us to join the Euro. There are an equal number of analysts and financial experts who give a totally opposite view of the costs. History and the current state of unemployment, economic growth, etc within the EuroZone are facts. Who would you believe?
The major businesses create a much smaller percentage of jobs in the UK than the small and medium business sector who have nothing to do with exporting to Europe and ALL claim that release from the restrictive practices forced on them by the EU would encourage growth and employment.

To lump NI together with Scotland and the SNP shows a total disregard for the people in both countries to the benefit of self serving politicians.
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IMHO, the Vote Leave campaign was as dishonest as the day is long. You were bamboozled.
 
GerryUK said:
Please correct me if I'm wrong but it is my understanding that the triggering of Article 50 needs no agreement from anybody... it is only the future dealings between the "ex" member and the remaining 27 that requires ratification. As a fervent Brexiteer I had stupidly hoped any future relationship could be negotiated in a framework of mutual respect. Now fervently believe that the half hearted approach by UK politicians (who largely want to remain), together with (a very understandable) wish by the EU to make a point to other disgruntled populations has brought things to their current deplorable state.
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If you want to put the blame for this fiasco onto everybody but the Brexit side, that's okay. If you're actually able to discern by now what the hell the Brexit side is.

But even if you still delude yourself over any clear camp lines existing, the blame game over lack of respect should start at home. Which would in this case be Westminster and the atrocious spectacle it is currently presenting not only to the world but, more importantly, to its own people.
 
Westphalian said:
Parliament ceded decision making authority to the people in the referendum.

The people voted to leave the EU and the government pledged to implement the will of the people.

Parliament (already believed by most Leave voters to be out of touch) can not now fail to deliver Brexit, and instead go back to the people and say - 'vote again, you got it wrong last time'.

Such would be a fatal blow to the credibility of democracy. It would be the first time in UK history that the outcome of a vote (the biggest mass participation vote in UK history) had been ignored. Democracies can not afford to do that.
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Thank you for demonstrating once again that you are as totally clueless on the development of this whole mess as you are clueless in defining 34.73 % of the whole electorate as representing the will of the people.

And before you spout forth any further here on the credibility of democracy, I suggest you turn your St. Petersburg gaze land-inwards and deal with your own political system.

And where the point is probably completely wasted on you, for the benefit of others: giving the decision back to the people would not be a case of "get it right this time" but a case of "now you know exactly what you're voting for, something we the political class, were criminally amiss in informing you upon last time".
 
GerryUK said:
Surely it can't be beyond the wit of man to work out a fair and amicable deal. This 'mess' is a pure political confection created by people with vested interests who are trying to convince ordinary people that they're too stupid to understand the bigger picture and are happy to use smoke and mirrors to do so no matter who it harms.
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Well, why don't you address this condemnation to the likes of Boris the Clown and the rest of his dishonest smoke and mirrors gang?
 
I am happy to condemn anyone who is trying to b****s the people. Yes Boris can be a clown but he is not a stupid man and fortunately I credit myself with the good sense to be able to work out/learn how to be able to tell the difference. I posted that comment in the hope of starting a discussion among sensible people about the possible solutions not an argument about which side has the most clowns, liars and conmen because trust me there are more than enough of them to go around. just sayin'
 
Chagos said:
Thank you for demonstrating once again that you are as totally clueless on the development of this whole mess as you are clueless in defining 34.73 % of the whole electorate as representing the will of the people.

And before you spout forth any further here on the credibility of democracy, I suggest you turn your St. Petersburg gaze land-inwards and deal with your own political system.

And where the point is probably completely wasted on you, for the benefit of others: giving the decision back to the people would not be a case of "get it right this time" but a case of "now you know exactly what you're voting for, something we the political class, were criminally amiss in informing you upon last time".
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I don't know where your 34.73% figure comes from but I do know that the majority of those who could be bothered to vote voted leave. You follow the old line 'they didn't know what they were voting for' and suggest that this has changed. Got to tell you... we knew exactly what we were voting for. In addition, despite nearly two years of so called negotiation, there is still no deal on offer just the vague promise that if we give all the concessions so far promised they will make their 'best endevours' to reach one. Forgive me for believing that nothing focuses the mind like a deadline.

Pay nothing, get out now and spend as long as it takes trading on WTO rules while the negotiations continue. Painful for both parties in the short term but I'll their best endevours will suddenly become meaningful
 
GerryUK said:
I don't know where your 34.73% figure comes from but I do know that the majority of those who could be bothered to vote voted leave.
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Sure, and if the turnout of those bothering to vote had been at 50 pct, you'd still think that a majority of those would have represented the people?

I'm fully aware of the idiocy of any side claiming the non-voters would have voted their way, but that's not the point here.
You follow the old line 'they didn't know what they were voting for' and suggest that this has changed. Got to tell you... we knew exactly what we were voting for.
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Maybe YOU did but I'm assuming you're merely using the pluralis majestatis when you describe yourself as "we".
In addition, despite nearly two years of so called negotiation, there is still no deal on offer just the vague promise that if we give all the concessions so far promised they will make their 'best endevours' to reach one. Forgive me for believing that nothing focuses the mind like a deadline.
Click to expand...
So what's your point here? If you have a gripe over the nigh on two years period of non-negotiation, address it to the proper people.
Pay nothing, get out now and spend as long as it takes trading on WTO rules while the negotiations continue. Painful for both parties in the short term but I'll their best endevours will suddenly become meaningful
Click to expand...
Okay, that's your stance and presumably what you also decided to be voting for.

Doesn't look though as if it garners universal support even from all leavers. Which however we'll never know for sure unless the question is posed again, but for the first time with the option being in your above wording
 
Re: How will Brexit go?

You may be surprised by the amount of respect the people of England have for their European neighbors and the genuine affection that has grown over the years of cross border visits.

Who knows, given a generation of truth to grow used to the idea many more of us may have grown used to the idea of suborning our sovereignty and cultural identity to the European super state. However it has become more and more difficult for our elite (even with the collusion of their counterparts on the continent) to hide the intended ever closer integration necessary to make the project work.

After careful consideration and armed with as many facts as we've been able to pull out of the hyperbole generated by both sides the majority voted leave. So let us go our separate ways with as little rancor as possible.
 
Chagos said:
Sure, and if the turnout of those bothering to vote had been at 50 pct, you'd still think that a majority of those would have represented the people?

In fact I think the turn out was near 75%... but yes, however many turned out is the only representation you'll ever get surely.

Chagos said:
I'm fully aware of the idiocy of any side claiming the non-voters would have voted their way, but that's not the point here.
Maybe YOU did but I'm assuming you're merely using the pluralis majestatis when you describe yourself as "we".So what's your point here? If you have a gripe over the nigh on two years period of non-negotiation, address it to the proper people.
Okay, that's your stance and presumably what you also decided to be voting for.
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The Proper People are doing all they can to subvert the vote.

Chagos said:
Doesn't look though as if it garners universal support even from all leavers. Which however we'll never know for sure unless the question is posed again, but for the first time with the option being in your above wording
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I see. Keep changing the question till you can garner the answer you want a tried and tested tactic by the EU.
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Rogue Valley said:
IMHO, the Vote Leave campaign was as dishonest as the day is long. You were bamboozled.
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Believe me I hold the vast majority of politicians on both sides in equal contempt and accept they were equally guilty of trying to bamboozle as many people as possible. However I was finally give the opportunity to have my voice heard and jumped at it. I would be happy to have a fact based debate with anybody on the very real reasons that I and a large number of others have for not wanting to travel any further down the EU road.
 
GerryUK said:
~ Who would you believe? ~
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Not Bojo, nor the ERG nor Dyson for one.

GerryUK said:
~the small and medium business sector who have nothing to do with exporting to Europe
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Medium businesses yes, however the small business sector comprising market stall holders, hairdressers, carpenters and others who are often on our screens telling us to walk away with no deal have very little to worry about where exporting anywhere is concerned. I'd be more convinced if Rees Mogg hadn't shifted a large amount of his business HQ into the EU or Dyson had put his money where his mouth was and actually invested in the UK.

Anyhow, you may have missed my point earlier - I think we should take our pain and quit. I am a democrat; I hate the result and see the stupidest decision made for some of the most ill informed reasons ever but it was a democratic decision by the population. I am disappointed to read that the Norway model is one option - we've basically chucked away Thatcher's rebate and single market victories for lies and exaggeration.

Rules existed to allow UK govts to deal with EU migration but were never implemented. Taxes gained from EU migrants in Lincoln and other similar places were never re-invested locally and this helped foment anger and suspicion. We did this to ourselves just like the huge economic self harm that a hard Brexit will entail.
 
GerryUK said:
~ I and a large number of others have for not wanting to travel any further down the EU road.
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There you can find a lot of agreement across the leave and remain divide. I have my own limits too and I also agree many of our politicians in the past withheld basic information about what the project was and where it was going.

Chagos keeps talking about flogging all politicians over Brexit - I would specifically point at the British politicians who did not honestly discuss what the project was and I would also hold those who lied in the referendum to account.

Sadly, none of the ERG had the balls to honestly put themselves forward for leadership - why not?

000a%20ERGcartoon-022%20Brexit.jpg


That in essence is the hard Brexit position. Leap into the unknown but none of them will put their name to "it," none will tell us what "it" is.
 
GerryUK said:
In fact I think the turn out was near 75%... but yes, however many turned out is the only representation you'll ever get surely.
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You asked how I arrived at 34.7 % and I indeed have to correct that figure in that 2 numbers were switched in my post. It should have read 37.4 %.

Of the total electorate, i.e. of all eligible to cast their vote.
The Proper People are doing all they can to subvert the vote.
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YOU are not the "proper people" without offering anything more than claiming to be. In fact you are also clearly bent on obfuscation in the "sensible" discussion you call for, by quoting a part of a post of mine but addressing only a single point that fits your convenience.

I repeat: if you want to criticize the fact that for nearly two years the British government was unable to even enter into any Leave-deal negotiation, take it to them.
I see. Keep changing the question till you can garner the answer you want a tried and tested tactic by the EU.
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I have already outlined in post #547 what the questions (note the plural) could be and perhaps should be.

Kindly pay attention and you'll see that I wasn't referring to the EU at all but to Britain..
 
Infinite Chaos said:
*.......................Chagos keeps talking about flogging all politicians over Brexit - I would specifically point at the British politicians who did not honestly discuss what the project was and I would also hold those who lied in the referendum to account.................~
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I actually advocated hanging the whole bloody lot and only dampened the proposal down a bit later.

But where I agree with a past post of Gerry's (and with you) is that the lying goes way back to well before this current brouhaha.

In that "project Europe", as a unity that even Sir Winston once propagated in 1946, was practically never informed to the British people by its leaders. The latter more interested in the economic benefits and selling UK membership to the Brits exclusively on that pretext.

Incidentally another failure that was always conveniently laid at Brussels' door, even to the point of accusations of treachery and fraud.

Well, anyone keeping up over the decades will know that Europe never made any bones about its aspirations, it thus being easy to determine where treachery and fraud actually transpired.
 
Chagos said:
~ failure that was always conveniently laid at Brussels' door, even to the point of accusations of treachery and fraud ~
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In many ways, the complete mess we have is because we are trying to put a square peg into a round hole. Even now, facts remain thin on the ground.
 
Chagos is right. There has never been much support in the UK for European integration. That's precisely why even pro EU politicians either hid or denied the real purpose. Pro EU forces in the UK, as now to this day, still talk almost exclusively about economics. Remain is about economics not about 'ever closer Union'.

So even if Brexit was cancelled (which won't happen) the UK problem would be unresolved. It would still have all its opt outs and exemptions, and it would still be opppsed to European integration, EU army and all the other schemes of Brussels.

Those who advocate another referendum are as deluded as the Brexiters they deride. Remaining in the EU would not set the clock back to 2016, as though that never happened, it would not heal divisions, it would not solve any of Europe's problems.

I have no skin in this game, but I do believe that the EU is better off without the UK. The UK is tied by language, history, geography and culture to an Atlanticist vision, an island mentality, and a super close relationship with the US.
 
Chagos said:
You asked how I arrived at 34.7 % and I indeed have to correct that figure in that 2 numbers were switched in my post. It should have read 37.4 %.

Of the total electorate, i.e. of all eligible to cast their vote.
YOU are not the "proper people" without offering anything more than claiming to be. In fact you are also clearly bent on obfuscation in the "sensible" discussion you call for, by quoting a part of a post of mine but addressing only a single point that fits your convenience.

I repeat: if you want to criticize the fact that for nearly two years the British government was unable to even enter into any Leave-deal negotiation, take it to them.
I have already outlined in post #547 what the questions (note the plural) could be and perhaps should be.

Kindly pay attention and you'll see that I wasn't referring to the EU at all but to Britain..
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I see. Are you sure you are not in fact a politician. I split your quote to try and answer all your points fairly whereas instead of answering any of them you juggle. Correcting the number while still selecting the total electorate completely misses the point. Suggesting I was claiming to be the Proper People again covers the fact that i stating my reason for discussing it here in the absence of a hearing by the Proper People so couldn't take it to them. Criticism of what I say but no mention of anything that would persuade leavers to remain part of the EU.
 
Couldn't agree more. As I've said more than once they are all a bunch of self serving w*****S. I believe it will be painful but like all arguments where both sides shout apocalypse you don't go their way I expect the end result to fall somewhere in the middle. Calls for a second referendum cannot be justified as anything but sour grapes and would make a nonsense of any future election. Common sense and a little reading of the actual treaties show that "Norway +" or "Canada +" etc are a total non starter for practical reasons. Not the least of which is that they are only open to non members so we'd have to leave first. The whole purpose of the dogs dinner that British politics have become was supposed to be our relationship with Europe after leaving. Any attempt to remain in any shape or form will be betrayal pure and simple.
 
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