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[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

How will Brexit go?

  • The EU will continue to grow but will change to address the feelings that drove Brexit.

    Votes: 13 11.4%

  • The EU will continue to grow but will not address the feelings that drove Brexit

    Votes: 16 14.0%

  • The EU will see more countries pulling out after we leave.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • The UK will break up as a consequence of Brexit.

    Votes: 26 22.8%

  • The UK will still hold after all is done and dusted.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • There’ll be a second Brexit related referendum. (Independence / Brexit etc)

    Votes: 22 19.3%

  • We’ll end up with soft Brexit and end up staying within EFTA.

    Votes: 18 15.8%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit, a disaster ending with WTO rules.

    Votes: 29 25.4%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit which will be a success, even under WTO rules

    Votes: 18 15.8%
  • Total voters
    114
FirstTracksGirl said:
I think the exit should go well. Britain can still very much be involved in the EU through their economy, trade, markets, and other aspects without sacrificing their sovereignty or sacrificing key internal focuses within their borders. Just like other major economic powers such as Norway that aren't in the EU can still be independent, not need direction from a more centralized authority, and yet still have good cooperation with the EU. Just because they leave the EU doesn't mean they are on a figurative island.
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The EU / Norway deal.

Basically Norway pays into the EU but is a 2nd class member - no voting rights on the EU direction or policies. There are 3 basic options -
Remain a member with our rebates and special exceptions won over 40 years of deal making.
Norway / Switzerland model of associate membership - see above.
Complete break and WTO rules.

FirstTracksGirl said:
So are you saying the UK can't survive without being in the EU or that the EU can't survive without the UK?
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The EU and UK will survive whatever option is chosen. How well and the extent of the economic impact is where the question remains.

Many in the hard Brexit camp felt that our leaving would force the EU to its knees and further membership loss but not much has been said about this since the actual referendum. Some on the completely weird / conspiracy theory front talked of "global elites" and similar such rubbish but the EU has sheer market size to ensure it survives.
 
FirstTracksGirl said:
How did Britain survive prior to their entry into the EU? Is it not possible for Britain to still partner with EU countries without being a member of the EU?
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Birtain was the "Poor man of Europe" before entry.We tried and tried to get in, but de Gaulle kept saying "Non" till he died and we got in.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
The EU / Norway deal.

Basically Norway pays into the EU but is a 2nd class member - no voting rights on the EU direction or policies. There are 3 basic options -
Remain a member with our rebates and special exceptions won over 40 years of deal making.
Norway / Switzerland model of associate membership - see above.
Complete break and WTO rules.



The EU and UK will survive whatever option is chosen. How well and the extent of the economic impact is where the question remains.

Many in the hard Brexit camp felt that our leaving would force the EU to its knees and further membership loss but not much has been said about this since the actual referendum. Some on the completely weird / conspiracy theory front talked of "global elites" and similar such rubbish but the EU has sheer market size to ensure it survives.
Click to expand...

Stephen Fry has prepared an explanatory vid.

 
Does anybody, just as an aside, remember the big mouth noise of a party-internal no confidence move that the Reese-Mogg gang of thugs was going to hang around May's neck?

Silent fart?
 
Chagos said:
Does anybody, just as an aside, remember the big mouth noise of a party-internal no confidence move that the Reese-Mogg gang of thugs was going to hang around May's neck?

Silent fart?
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They did not get the required votes/signatures to force a vote.

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Sven Karma said:
Beginning of the end ('a valedictory tone in her statement'):
https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-day-of-brexit-losses-parliament/

She didn't just lose the votes today by a small margin, she got schooled. The DUP would sooner work with Jeremy Corbyn than her, which is no mean achievement.
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One interesting thing is Laura Kuensberg at the BBC suggests it could be the first step in excluding the paths full remainers and hard Brexiteers have for their option.

She argues that what may be on the cards is ~

"So far, so disaster. Except it could actually peel off some rebels on both sides... possibly.
Former Remain rebels now have a possible route to get what they want if the PM's plan is rejected, as there is a possible - I emphasise the possible - way to get a vote with a majority for a Norway-style agreement or, less likely, a push for another referendum.
That won't go unnoticed by Brexiteers too, who may feel (some of them at least) that Mrs May's deal might be their best bet in that case, rather than risk that softer, squidgier Brexit."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46449498
 
That 'possibly' sounds a polite way of 'if hell freezes over'.
 
Sven Karma said:
Beginning of the end ('a valedictory tone in her statement'):
https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-day-of-brexit-losses-parliament/

She didn't just lose the votes today by a small margin, she got schooled. The DUP would sooner work with Jeremy Corbyn than her, which is no mean achievement.
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On the contrary if they were going to do so they would have pulled the plug allready. No one in the DUP wants it to be the party that put Jeremy Corbyn into power but they have learned that if simply they make noises about doing so then they can get what they want. I think they have overplayed their hand enormously and much to the detriment of pretty much everyone involved.
 
Red_Dave said:
On the contrary if they were going to do so they would have pulled the plug allready. No one in the DUP wants it to be the party that put Jeremy Corbyn into power but they have learned that if simply they make noises about doing so then they can get what they want. I think they have overplayed their hand enormously and much to the detriment of pretty much everyone involved.
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They haven't pulled the plug for the same reason not enough no confidence letters got sent, why overtly precipitate the inevitable?, and they've hardly overplayed their hand seeing as May herself handed them all the aces and however many billions the confidence and supply scam cost.

And acting 'to the detriment of pretty much everyone involved' is the DUP's mission statement, no? Because 1688, Battle of the Boyne etc etc.
 
A leading Brexiteer has suggested that "we" use the threat of food shortages to "persuade" Ireland to support us against the EU! They live in a total bubble, where history means nothing.
Not-so Priti Patel.
 
Manc Skipper said:
A leading Brexiteer has suggested that "we" use the threat of food shortages to "persuade" Ireland to support us against the EU! They live in a total bubble, where history means nothing.
Not-so Priti Patel.
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Now I have to live with the image of the UK inundated in Kerrygold all night. Brrrrhhhhh.

Thank you very much :roll:


:lol:
 
Oh the agony.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrgh!
 
Chagos said:
Oh the agony.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrgh!
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Reminds me of the deadpool scene where he kills someone with a zamboni..


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Sage077 said:
UK PM May expected to delay Brexit vote and try get better deal

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/uk...et-better-deal/?utm_source=push_notifications


hard to tell just how this mess can be cleaned up.
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Good catch as it turns out.

This is a huge mess whichever side of the debate you're on. She's delayed so as to save her skin. I wonder whether she will go back to the country as the only way to see this out and come to a decision she can force through Parliament.

Apparently she's going to go back to the EU but like Cameron she will find the EU has always stuck to their original decision.
 
May faced a humiliating defeat with a vote. She blamed that on the murky status of the Ireland/Northern Ireland border, but I believe the Brexit mess is more complex than that issue.
 
Today saw May try to kick Brexit into the long grass. Unfortunately for her the grass is on fire and made of petrol.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
Good catch as it turns out.

This is a huge mess whichever side of the debate you're on. She's delayed so as to save her skin. I wonder whether she will go back to the country as the only way to see this out and come to a decision she can force through Parliament.

Apparently she's going to go back to the EU but like Cameron she will find the EU has always stuck to their original decision.
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At best she will find "re-formulations" in Brussels, re-negotiating what's on the table is not going to happen. Not only Brussels is clear on that one, the countries' leaderships have made it clear as well.

What she understands "re-assurances" would be on, remains as much a mystery as to how they'd appease any of the warring parliament factions, were they to be obtained.

The main stumbling stone for her and everybody else in Westminster and NI is the backstop, and there'll definitely be no "re-assurances" from Brussels that even the most creative can see as changing the eventual withdrawal from the backstop clause from bilateral to unilateral.

It actually looks more and more like the Brexit (in whatever form) is far less an issue than personal MP interests and party machinations playing the primary role.

Fighting over the deck chairs while heading full tilt for the iceberg.

If the political class finds itself as incapable and incompetent in delivering anything at all (of whatever form), put it to the people ferchrissake. And that cannot be going to the country to grovel for support, it can only be giving the vote back.

Three choices:

1) deal as it's on paper now
2) crash out
3) revoke article 50

If one draws more than 50 pct, take that as the people's will. If all three draw more or less even, let the lowest vote drop out and the two remainders go to heat.

That'll all take time but is probably the only possibility of ending this shambolic handling, also to induce the EU to extend the throat-cut period beyond end of March next year.
 
Neither kicking May off her chair (by Tory internal coup) nor new elections will solve this in time. Whatever propagators of either think they can install as alternatives, clearly nobody has one.

I repeat previous proposals that by now they should actually all be hanged.
 
Just watching BBC simultaneously grilling Amber Crudd and her Labour counter part (Pong-Bailey?), appears to confirm the prudence of expedited hangings.

Okay, to avoid anything that overly drastic (although one remains enthusiastic), at least floggings.

And don't let David Cameron be forgotten.
 
Rogue Valley said:
~ the Brexit mess is more complex than that issue.
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You can say that again. The Hard Brexit mob were the same ones who rubbished analysts and financial experts on the costs. When it came to major businesses warning that jobs would be lost the hard Brexiteers said don't believe the globalists and big business such as automotive and other engineering - not to mention the city.

The funny thing is Northern Ireland is being offered a deal that Scotland and the SNP wold kill for - one foot in the EU and one foot out with the WTO.

Chagos said:
~ The main stumbling stone for her and everybody else in Westminster and NI is the backstop, and there'll definitely be no "re-assurances" from Brussels that even the most creative can see as changing the eventual withdrawal from the backstop clause from bilateral to unilateral
Click to expand...

The biggest mess imaginable.
 
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