What would happen if the UK collapsed...?

Abbazorkzog said:

What would happen if, say, Brexit caused England to become an isolated pariah state, or the fragmentation of the UK between Scotland, England and Ireland. What would happen? Asking for a friend. (I have a pretty good idea but a consensus would be nice). Thanks.

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England still has the largest military in Westerm Europe so there is no chance of her being an outcast. England has been a major player in Europe since Elizabeth I. Two scenarios may play out:

Now for some reason if the UK were to become outcast she would do what every outcast has done since WW2, look further afield for political and trade partners, meaning the USA, in a nutshell, the Special relationship would advance to a new level.

The UK already has a special relationship, its called the Commenwealth, who will have there mother countrys back.

DaveFagan said:

The Bank of England and Bank of London are very large players on the Central Bank level, ergo the collapse would have to be a Banking collapse. Just my thoughts.
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What is the 'Bank of London'?

Godric1970 said:

economically dependant on England ... this the poll we we're warned about due to it's leading questions and the Times is a unionist rag based in England

here is the questions asked http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/pbpollmar17.pdf

we have had numerous polls recently with Yes ahead by 4%

and as for Scotland being dependent on England your having a laugh it was our oil and gas industry that bankrolled the UK throughout the 1980s and 1990s ... Scotland has never been subsidised by the UK ... you are one of these people that believes the figures spouted by GERS founded by Tory MP now Lord Lang and IFS founded and owned by Tory peer Lord Astor

if Scotland is such a basket case why is the UK so desperate to keep a hold of us ... wouldn't happen to be the fact Scotland is surrounded by £trillions of untapped reserves of oil and gas including at least £1.5 trillion worth of known oil and gas reserves in our north sea ... we will be fine ... i can't say the same about "little England"

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/new...ntapped-oil-and-gas-reserves-worth-trillions/

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Don't be so sure that the English want to 'keep hold of Scotland' . For example I would be pleased - make that delighted - in the unlikely event of the Scots being brave enough to vote for independence.

Sweden said:

Don't be so sure that the English want to 'keep hold of Scotland' . For example I would be pleased - make that delighted - in the unlikely event of the Scots being brave enough to vote for independence.

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Scotland also generate £58 billion in taxes and Holyrood receives under £30 billion in running Scottish services

Scotland also generates 14% of the UK's total exports with 8.3% of the UK's taxes

Sweden said:

What is the 'Bank of London'?

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Misquote, my fault. City of London.

Godric1970 said:

Scotland also generate £58 billion in taxes and Holyrood receives under £30 billion in running Scottish services

Scotland also generates 14% of the UK's total exports with 8.3% of the UK's taxes

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Excellent! Now convince your timid compatriots to let go of Mummy England's hand and go it alone. Oh, what's that? You want to grasp the hand o the moribund EU instead?

DaveFagan said:

Misquote, my fault. City of London.

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Thanks for the clarification.

Sweden said:

Excellent! Now convince your timid compatriots to let go of Mummy England's hand and go it alone. Oh, what's that? You want to grasp the hand o the moribund EU instead?

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England controls the whole media even in Scotland ''' last time round we had to fight the campaign with no media support ... this time round will be different as more papers have seen the see saw change in Scotland some are neutral a couple are coming over more pro independence

a Tory MP pointing out the obvious that we are and never have been subsidy junkies
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VOuSN2j5iU

Abbazorkzog said:

What if Wales went neutral/distanced itself from England (in near future) due to ultranationalist/Brexit ideology in London in an effort (by Wales) to be closer to Europe/EU? Most people I've talk to in Wales are pretty pro-EU.

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Brexit is not ultranationalist ideology. It is a basic belief in the nation-state, which is still the best way of organising politically.

Godric1970 said:

Scotland also generate £58 billion in taxes and Holyrood receives under £30 billion in running Scottish services

Scotland also generates 14% of the UK's total exports with 8.3% of the UK's taxes

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Actually most oil is Shetland oil. It is an open question what happens to the Shetlands. The islanders themselves are not necessarily Scots (in many ways having closer ties to Norwegian culture) and have shown reluctance to join an independent Scotland. The SNP have previously said they will respect the islanders choice about their future. They should be made too, and the islanders can choose to join Scotland, Norway, be independent, or stau with the UK. Obviously, their oil goes with them.

Wessexman said:

Actually most oil is Shetland oil. It is an open question what happens to the Shetlands. The islanders themselves are not necessarily Scots (in many ways having closer ties to Norwegian culture) and have shown reluctance to join an independent Scotland. The SNP have previously said they will respect the islanders choice about their future. They should be made too, and the islanders can choose to join Scotland, Norway, be independent, or stau with the UK. Obviously, their oil goes with them.

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you listening to a bunch of Liberal Democrat Politicians ... funny i could swear all 32 regions of Scotland including the Shetland's voted to remain in the EU ... actually the bulk of Scotland's oil and Gas is off our entire west coast i have provided a link in a earlier post

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/new...ntapped-oil-and-gas-reserves-worth-trillions/

gunner said:

You've contradicted your own blog: "Thou shalt not use small numbers to represent the all.
[ -Hasty Generalization- ]" Sorry.

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Even if that's what I was insinuating (its not, I was merely stating I hadn't met any), the EU is largely irrelevant to the Welsh one way or the other. But if you want to have a serious intellectual discussion, here is what I've gathered from my research...

Wales voted for Brexit because it has been ignored by Westminster for too long

Progressives in Wales should resist the kind of hostile nationalism that has defined certain pockets of the country, but should look at building a kind of distinct Welsh identity against the meanness fostered by the Leave campaign. And Welsh voters should be worried. The unfortunate truth is Wales needed the EU to invest in it. It’s highly unlikely Boris Johnson and his ilk will compensate for the losses it will sustain by leaving.

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So, like I said in the original post - this is a purely hypothetical worst-case-scenario and the discussion of the fallout indicative therein. I realize I a lot of people don't see the point in postulating about the future, but I always enjoy it.

As we agreed earlier, any time in the near future or at least for another decade or two - the prospect of real political instability in the UK is at the moment highly unlikely, but that could change with Scottish independence. While it is certainly a minority effort, it has the highest support at any point in the past decade, so it is certainly not impossible, if that is what your soundbite is attempting to assert.

Wessexman said:

Brexit is not ultranationalist ideology. It is a basic belief in the nation-state, which is still the best way of organising politically.

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Bull****. Brexit is about power pure and simple. If it was a basic belief in "the nation-state", then there would be no United Kingdom.

PeteEU said:

Bull****. Brexit is about power pure and simple. If it was a basic belief in "the nation-state", then there would be no United Kingdom.

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Exactly. The UK would cease to exist at the behest of England if the hyper-nationalistic trend begun with Brexit continues. Brexit is all about England. To hell with Scotland and N. Ireland so long as England/London gets to bully the rest of the UK and EU around.

Abbazorkzog said:

What would happen if, say, Brexit caused England to become an isolated pariah state, or the fragmentation of the UK between Scotland, England and Ireland. What would happen? Asking for a friend. (I have a pretty good idea but a consensus would be nice). Thanks.

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The US would divert its trade to them or through them most likely, give loan guarantees and the like to get them back on their feet.

backpacker said:

The US would divert its trade to them or through them most likely, give loan guarantees and the like to get them back on their feet.

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I wonder if it would become a partisan issue, though. I could see Trump doing that, but maybe not Hillary, or another New Democrat administration. They would probably support Scotland instead. And then the US has its own dilemma (and many other countries, since England is the largest of the British countries by far and has the biggest economy, culture) and I suppose it would depend on what England's government looks like as well. If they're moderate then that would hold true for both factions of the US. But, if they were more extremist - say, ultra-nationalists - then we'd have a big problem.

Abbazorkzog said:

I wonder if it would become a partisan issue, though. I could see Trump doing that, but maybe not Hillary, or another New Democrat administration. They would probably support Scotland instead. And then the US has its own dilemma (and many other countries, since England is the largest of the British countries by far and has the biggest economy, culture) and I suppose it would depend on what England's government looks like as well. If they're moderate then that would hold true for both factions of the US. But, if they were more extremist - say, ultra-nationalists - then we'd have a big problem.

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Clinton would probably have preconditioned the aid on Scottish Independence. Trump, on the other hand, owns a golf course in Scotland is probably not keen on the downside possibility that if they released their own currency, he would be getting no return on investment as the demand for whatever it happened to be would surely be very low.

Abbazorkzog said:

What if Wales went neutral/distanced itself from England (in near future) due to ultranationalist/Brexit ideology in London in an effort (by Wales) to be closer to Europe/EU? Most people I've talk to in Wales are pretty pro-EU.

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Wales voted for Brexit for the most part, partly due to European fishing restrictions and immigration more than ultranationalist ideology per se (though bear in mind that many in Wales would xenophobic enough to people from the next village). This may seem like a contradiction but many of those voted out due to immigration (and that wasn´t that the only issue) did so because they lived in economically depressed parts of the country where jobs were scarse, not because they were Hitler loving white nationalists (indeed most of them seem to be moving to Hungary these days).

I´ve never met an American in real life who liked Donald Trump, nor an Italian who liked Berlusconi, they tend to be ones who stay put . However Brexit voter doesnt necessarily mean "white nationalist". On the contrary one interesting demographic that was surprisingly pro brexit was Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi resturant owners , given the amount of trouble they had bringing freinds and family over to work whereas those from Eastern Europe could arrive without any checks. Thats not to say that xenophobia didnt play a disturbingly significant role in the referendum (which was part of the reason I voted to stay) but its by no means as clear cut as you are making it out to be.

Red_Dave said:

Wales voted for Brexit for the most part, partly due to European fishing restrictions and immigration more than ultranationalist ideology per se (though bear in mind that many in Wales would xenophobic enough to people from the next village). This may seem like a contradiction but many of those voted out due to immigration (and that wasn´t that the only issue) did so because they lived in economically depressed parts of the country where jobs were scarse, not because they were Hitler loving white nationalists (indeed most of them seem to be moving to Hungary these days).

I´ve never met an American in real life who liked Donald Trump, nor an Italian who liked Berlusconi, they tend to be ones who stay put . However Brexit voter doesnt necessarily mean "white nationalist". On the contrary one interesting demographic that was surprisingly pro brexit was Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi resturant owners , given the amount of trouble they had bringing freinds and family over to work whereas those from Eastern Europe could arrive without any checks. Thats not to say that xenophobia didnt play a disturbingly significant role in the referendum (which was part of the reason I voted to stay) but its by no means as clear cut as you are making it out to be.

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That's an interesting thing to look at. I wasn't particularly being anti-Brexit so much as in favor of the EU and a United Kingdom, to the bold. I think a lot of it has to do with the so-called "Hitler loving white nationalists" and ultranationalists in powerful political positions taking advantage of the scarcity of jobs and the economic deficiencies to turn people against one another. "Predatory elites" if you will (like Trump and Berlusconi) exploiting a divide-and-conquer agenda, which is many times more complex than simply an epidemic of xenophobia.

I found this article yesterday:

Brexit's Potential to Fracture the U.K.

Splitting from the European Union will inevitably strain the United Kingdom's territorial integrity. Those pushing for Scotland and Northern Ireland to secede from the United Kingdom are using Brexit to justify their agendas. Brexit will also open a debate between the central government in London and the country's devolved governments about who will control the powers that will be repatriated from Brussels. With authority over policy areas such as agriculture, fisheries, industry and the environment returning to the United Kingdom after Brexit, the administrations of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will push London to transfer many of those attributions to them.

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Wales also expects to gain from whatever concessions London makes to Scotland. In the months leading to the Scottish independence referendum of 2015, for example, London promised to grant Scotland additional powers over taxes, welfare benefits and energy. In the coming months, London may offer new sweeteners to Scotland to appease secessionist sentiments. This will open the door for Wales to make its own demands. While the Welsh issue will not be nearly as pressing as the Scottish or Northern Irish questions, it will create yet another headache for May's Cabinet.

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STRATFOR is a fairly reliable news source in my experience. There's also this sentiment:

Brexit can't just be for England, Theresa May must make it work for Wales too

Whatever happens, we're not looking at the same Great Britain we were prior to Brexit. Like I said earlier in the thread, the total collapse and extinction of Britain and a rogue England is a very extreme, sensationalist, novelist outcome. Like you said (and the articles above), it would probably be somewhere in between with the various countries gaining more autonomy from London.

There's also the spectre of right-wing populism:

Why right-wing populism is a threat to Europe. Which is something we also have to factor in. While Trump seems to be contained (for the most part), his election has divided this country (the U.S.) among partisan and ideological lines. Now, imagine if someone ten times worse seized power in the U.K., a multi-country alliance that already has nation-state identities within its constituency to give an extra boost to rebellious and trouble making ideologies.