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How long will liberal republicanism hold?

Been reading up on Bannon.


Don't really see solid evidence of white supremacist ties.


Most of the hoopla seems to be b/c of his previous association with Breitbart.


That's far less significant that some Dem politicians who actually WERE in the Klan.
 
President Bannon is most certainly a white nationalist, and that's being nice .
 
Helix said:
in a binary political system, the pendulum swings both ways, and this time, it has been given quite a push. if it follows modern historical patterns, the political swing in the other direction should be significant. the questions are when, how, and by how much. i'm not necessarily arguing that we're due to get back on course for long term equilibrium, though, because the situation becomes more volatile as population density and the socioeconomic divide increases. i hope that we can manage to avoid catastrophe somehow.
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When was it given quite a push?
Culture and society exert considerable power and when progressive forces push too far too fast you will have a Thermidorean reaction. I see what is happening in the US similar to Chile in 1973. The US is deeply divided and there was pushback against the direction Obama was going. I don't consider Trump to be Pinochet but simply working toward some equilibrium and changing the trajectory from this point on. Many are sick of identity politics as well as economic doldrums.
 
NIMBY said:
President Bannon is most certainly a white nationalist, and that's being nice .
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I will be surprised if Bannon is still in the White House in 18 months.
 
Cavendish said:
Relax - Europe will not go Fascist. What will happen though, is that anti-immigration politicians will be elected.
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They will be elected, but I doubt they will be able to stop immigration. For one they would have to change the French constitution and the European treaties and directives, which seems impossible (28 agreements needed and more than 10 referendums), or leave the EU altogether. Then they would have to face a reluctant and disobedient administration, protests, legal mug battles, hostile medias, and ridiculous interpretations from constitutional courts.

Besides they would also have to deal with serious diplomatic issues with Muslim countries, who will refuse to take their illegals back. They would likely have to resort to military force to force the hand of those countries, and it could result into a mere strength showcase or escalate into a full-fledged war with the whole Muslim world.

And provided those parties would try to expel a significant number of immigrants, it would also mean a financial effort of many tens or hundreds of billions as those illegals would have to be detained for years until the issues are settled. Add short-term economic damages akin to a couple of years of growth.


I doubt democracy can still change anything significant in an European country. Because of the European mess and because of the rigidity of the European version of human rights and its ridiculous interpretations by constitutional courts. And because of our propaganda (school, medias), censorship (ban on ethnic stats) and judiciary repression (ban on hate speech to silence critics of Islam), all of them which prevent us to get informed and hold serious debates. And because we would have to become a lot more radical than we are, ready to far bigger sacrifices, despite medias promoting moderation, concessions and compromises.

In a recent poll, 49% of French people declared that they would like a strong leader who would not have to care about the elections or the parliament. A dictator in other words.


Personally I only see three ways through which things could change: the introduction of constitutional initiatives (to allow citizens to redact and vote constitutional amendments without parliament interference), a coup from the army to instigate a dictatorship, or armed conflicts.

The latter seems the most likely: I envision a future like Lebanon for France, with Muslims and Frenchmen occasionally slaughtering each other at local scale, with Muslim cities cohabiting alongside French cities, and no government between them because both sides will not be able to agree on anything. Until partition or until one of us disappear through assimilation or extermination.
 
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Eric7216 said:
When was it given quite a push?
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i'd call the election of Trump with a right wing congress quite a push.

Eric7216 said:
Culture and society exert considerable power and when progressive forces push too far too fast you will have a Thermidorean reaction. I see what is happening in the US similar to Chile in 1973. The US is deeply divided and there was pushback against the direction Obama was going. I don't consider Trump to be Pinochet but simply working toward some equilibrium and changing the trajectory from this point on. Many are sick of identity politics as well as economic doldrums.
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we'll see. as i said, if historical trends hold, the swing in the other direction could be significant. given that our choices are so purposefully limited, the only way of effectively expressing utter disgust is to vote for the other party. hopefully, the opposition will discover a way to extricate their heads from their asses in the coming years, because like it or not, they are pretty much the only alternative option.
 
Helix said:
i'd call the election of Trump with a right wing congress quite a push.



we'll see. as i said, if historical trends hold, the swing in the other direction could be significant. given that our choices are so purposefully limited, the only way of effectively expressing utter disgust is to vote for the other party. hopefully, the opposition will discover a way to extricate their heads from their asses in the coming years, because like it or not, they are pretty much the only alternative option.
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This
given that our choices are so purposefully limited, the only way of effectively expressing utter disgust is to vote for the other party. hopefully, the opposition will discover a way to extricate their heads from their asses in the coming years, because like it or not, they are pretty much the only alternative option.
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.......to just address the OP's country of residence (albeit his opening post addressing a far more global scope) is exactly the problem that some countries face.

In Germany's case the two main opposing parties having been alternatively in government or opposition in the past, yet having formed a Great Coalition from 2005 to 2009 and ever since 2013 (the intermediate term still being dominated by Merkel's party in coalition with the now almost extinct Free Democrats). That means up til now she's been the leader for almost 12 years and looks to start towards 16 years of leadership, if her conservative party again gets the most votes (very likely) in the coming fall. By whatever coalition she forms with anyone else (only viable partner appearing to be the same as now).

It's no wonder that the concept of "change" that once (1969) led to the eviction of the conservatives that had governed ever since the end of WWII, has become a term there which one hears in cross pond news but barely understands in meaning.

What I'm trying to get at is that recognizable opposition has become an impossibility and more and more citizens are becoming sick of that condition.

Since, come fall, a complete government replacement is impossible (the so far co-ruling Social Democrats would still have to be part of it to supply sufficient votes) and since such a turn away from Merkel's party would require a coalition of those same Social Democrats with the Left, the Greens and (probably a necessity) the Free Democrats. And quite apart from the one party (Free Democrats) getting on almost as badly with the other two small ones (Greens and Left) as those get on with each other, the average voter will shy away from what he can only deem to be a dangerous experiment that leads to a most fragile constellation.

As a consequence, votes of frustrations are what the far rightwingers of AfD are harvesting right now and will continue to do, despite their totally undemocratic goals and considerable Nazi base.

Unlike in the US there being no way to vote other than to thumb one's nose at the established and entrenched, most voters knowing the vote will change nothing much beyond reducing some of the comfort of the ruling bodies.

One need also see that the conditions of Germany cannot be transposed on to even any neighbouring European country, the parameters governing elsewhere being completely different.

What all have in common by now though is the total absence of any opposition deemed worth having the nation put its push behind. To the point of afterwards at least feeling that an iron broom has been swung.

One of the best things I find with the US is that a President has to go after two terms. That may not always oust his party but often enough does.
 
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German guy said:
Yeah, I hope we'll get through this cycle without too much damage.

If NATO collapses/is given up? We might not stand long enough to witness the pendulum swing back, I'm afraid.

I hope Trump is not crazy enough to give up NATO, and we Europeans are not crazy enough to vote fascists into our governments.
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We need to distinguish here, I believe, between Western Europe and Eastern Europe. And even those two are not homogeneous blocs in voter behavior. See for the East, Polish oppositional unrest, the Baltics showing little taste for fascism etc. and for the West neither Wilders nor Petry being able to get into government, at least not right now.

With Le Pen I'm assuming that the second round will thwart her immediate ambitions, even where she won't slow down.

No doubt Putin is highly interested in causing Europe to fraction back into small entities but being interested in that and achieving it are two different coins altogether. Preventing it from happening is primarily up to Europe though and one can only hope that traditionally "Eastern" fears of the Russian Bear (never mind under which czar) will have that dawning on some of the numbskulls.

Trump isn't going to give up NATO. He's a dealer and if one is named after the best card, one doesn't throw it away.:mrgreen:

Demands that its member nations darn well start paying their way are reasonable and should finally be met. Something that everybody keeps promising to do for years but then forgets (except, I believe, for Britain).
 
Chagos said:
This .......to just address the OP's country of residence (albeit his opening post addressing a far more global scope) is exactly the problem that some countries face.

In Germany's case the two main opposing parties having been alternatively in government or opposition in the past, yet having formed a Great Coalition from 2005 to 2009 and ever since 2013 (the intermediate term still being dominated by Merkel's party in coalition with the now almost extinct Free Democrats). That means up til now she's been the leader for almost 12 years and looks to start towards 16 years of leadership, if her conservative party again gets the most votes (very likely) in the coming fall. By whatever coalition she forms with anyone else (only viable partner appearing to be the same as now).

It's no wonder that the concept of "change" that once (1969) led to the eviction of the conservatives that had governed ever since the end of WWII, has become a term there which one hears in cross pond news but barely understands in meaning.

What I'm trying to get at is that recognizable opposition has become an impossibility and more and more citizens are becoming sick of that condition.

Since, come fall, a complete government replacement is impossible (the so far co-ruling Social Democrats would still have to be part of it to supply sufficient votes) and since such a turn away from Merkel's party would require a coalition of those same Social Democrats with the Left, the Greens and (probably a necessity) the Free Democrats. And quite apart from the one party (Free Democrats) getting on almost as badly with the other two small ones (Greens and Left) as those get on with each other, the average voter will shy away from what he can only deem to be a dangerous experiment that leads to a most fragile constellation.

As a consequence, votes of frustrations are what the far rightwingers of AfD are harvesting right now and will continue to do, despite their totally undemocratic goals and considerable Nazi base.

Unlike in the US there being no way to vote other than to thumb one's nose at the established and entrenched, most voters knowing the vote will change nothing much beyond reducing some of the comfort of the ruling bodies.

One need also see that the conditions of Germany cannot be transposed on to even any neighbouring European country, the parameters governing elsewhere being completely different.

What all have in common by now though is the total absence of any opposition deemed worth having the nation put its push behind. To the point of afterwards at least feeling that an iron broom has been swung.

One of the best things I find with the US is that a President has to go after two terms. That may not always oust his party but often enough does.
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yeah, the two term rule is probably best, at least for presidents. i'm still on the fence about congressional term limits. i'd much rather see gerrymandering banned nationwide, which would do more to solve the problem, IMO.
 
German guy said:
we Europeans are not crazy enough to vote fascists into our governments.
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You are wrong, totalitarianism has a bright future in Europe.

Totalitarianism will rise one again because Europe is creating the conditions required for totalitarianism. Every new Muslim who comes in our countries will yield ten more electors in favor of totalitarianism.


For one because totalitarianism is the natural reaction to a weakened identity. When a country gets divided and people distrust themselves and their governments (as it is the case with the forever increasing number of Muslims and the setback of democracy in front of a foreign bureaucracy called EU, and our countless defeats to come), it turns towards totalitarianism to attempt to recreate cohesion again. It can be fundamentalism, nationalism, etc, but it's always the same story and Islam and the EU are putting that into motion.

For two because Europeans are hopeless about future. More and more people grow convinced that we are fated to become Muslim countries (in France I can name writers and philosophers such as Onfray, Hoeullebecq, Zemmour, Finkelkraut, ...), that their children will be poorer than they are and submitted to Muslims, that what awaits us is only one defeat after the other. As a result they reject traditional parties. Their first reaction today is to try catch-all candidates who are out-of-the-system. Those messiahs will fail and people will then turn towards those who clinch their fists and promise authority and to defend national interests rather than foreign ones.


Moreover you do not understand that horror is the end of a long and gradual process. The Holocaust was not invented in 1933, it was invented in the midst of a war where human life was no longer worth much and radical solutions had to be found by a country with its back on the wall. Detaining Jews became too expensive for the Reich at war, so they killed them.

Such a gradual process is at play: the relations between Muslims and Europeans are oriented towards an inevitable clash in Europe. Despite the growing number of Muslims, the number of mixed weddings is decreasing, just like the number of veils is increasing, because we are separating and radicalizing without any hint of improvement.

People now do realize that soft policies do not work and that we need to halt immigration. But by the time we will have stopped it, it will be too late and our countries will be blatantly divided between autonomous Muslim zones and European ones, and the bilateral slaughters will have started.


People will then consider other ways to "fix" the problem that nothing managed to fix so far. It will happen in a context where Muslims will be naturally considered as an enemy and dehumanized. It seems unimaginable today, but you too will adhere to this idea after decades of gradual transform.
 
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NIMBY said:
President Bannon is most certainly a white nationalist, and that's being nice .
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Something you keep saying and refuse to prove.
 
Helix said:
i'd call the election of Trump with a right wing congress quite a push.
we'll see. as i said, if historical trends hold, the swing in the other direction could be significant. given that our choices are so purposefully limited, the only way of effectively expressing utter disgust is to vote for the other party. hopefully, the opposition will discover a way to extricate their heads from their asses in the coming years, because like it or not, they are pretty much the only alternative option.
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I see it differently. Society has been changing over the recent past and for significant numbers the changes has been too fast so they voted for a reset. And the post Trump election reactions and protests are reinforcing the belief among many that things were spinning out of control. Poll numbers for Trump are going up. Not unlike the later 60s that led to law and order/silent majority candidate Nixon. Nixon was not followed by a significant swing in the other direction. Society just readjusted their course and when off on a different trajectory than the pre-Nixon path.
 
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