Auvergnat
Banned
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2016
- Messages
- 773
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- 344
- Location
- France
- Gender
- Undisclosed
- Political Leaning
- Independent
Yesterday took place the primary election for the dominant right-wing party for the 2017 presidential race. With 66% of votes they selected François Fillon, who embodies the catholic little bourgeoisie and positioned himself as a conservative, and economically presented himself as a Thatcherist!
In a country where churches are empty and atheism commonplace, where no one ever debates abortion, where Thatcher is at best suspiciously looked at, and seen by the left as the right arm of Satan, this choice raises eyebrows. Apparently the project to legalize homosexual wedding and parentality a few years ago has woke up the religious electorate. Yet it seems like the right-wing electors rather favored his calm but resolute character rather than his program, and the fact that he ends decades of timidness and moderation, where the French right-wing did not dare to be right-wing.
But what does it entail for the presidential race? This two-round election will be disputed by three major candidates: Le Pen (FN, far-right) who was sure to win the first round but unlikely to conquer the second, Fillon (LR, right-wing), and a still unknown socialist candidate.
Most newspapers think that Fillon is a threat for Le Pen because he will attract her conservative electors. But most of the FN electors did not give a damn about the homosexual wedding, and they are blue collars and little employees unlikely to vote for Fillon's program. They are sovereignist and anti-immigrationnist, not conservatives. Moreover many observers seem to underestimate the amount of leftist electors who would vote for Le Pen rather than a new Thatcher. I cannot imagine communists voting for Fillon. Newspapers want this contest to be a bourgeois debate between liberalism versus conservatism, but it could very well be a good old class war with Le Pen as the strange champion of the working class, more for identity reasons rather than economy.
Another consequence is that such a polarizing candidate is a blessing for the left. The socialist party was doomed a few weeks ago, promised to a harsh defeat where it would fail to reach the second round and would drown in the course of history. But fearing Fillon they will probably recompose themselves and unite behind a candidate.
On immigration, his speeches sound good, but of course he would actually change nothing and let Islam grow. His main proposal, a referendum to set up quotas, is illegal since referendums cannot concern immigration. At least we can now hope an interesting election with meaningful debates.
In a country where churches are empty and atheism commonplace, where no one ever debates abortion, where Thatcher is at best suspiciously looked at, and seen by the left as the right arm of Satan, this choice raises eyebrows. Apparently the project to legalize homosexual wedding and parentality a few years ago has woke up the religious electorate. Yet it seems like the right-wing electors rather favored his calm but resolute character rather than his program, and the fact that he ends decades of timidness and moderation, where the French right-wing did not dare to be right-wing.
But what does it entail for the presidential race? This two-round election will be disputed by three major candidates: Le Pen (FN, far-right) who was sure to win the first round but unlikely to conquer the second, Fillon (LR, right-wing), and a still unknown socialist candidate.
Most newspapers think that Fillon is a threat for Le Pen because he will attract her conservative electors. But most of the FN electors did not give a damn about the homosexual wedding, and they are blue collars and little employees unlikely to vote for Fillon's program. They are sovereignist and anti-immigrationnist, not conservatives. Moreover many observers seem to underestimate the amount of leftist electors who would vote for Le Pen rather than a new Thatcher. I cannot imagine communists voting for Fillon. Newspapers want this contest to be a bourgeois debate between liberalism versus conservatism, but it could very well be a good old class war with Le Pen as the strange champion of the working class, more for identity reasons rather than economy.
Another consequence is that such a polarizing candidate is a blessing for the left. The socialist party was doomed a few weeks ago, promised to a harsh defeat where it would fail to reach the second round and would drown in the course of history. But fearing Fillon they will probably recompose themselves and unite behind a candidate.
On immigration, his speeches sound good, but of course he would actually change nothing and let Islam grow. His main proposal, a referendum to set up quotas, is illegal since referendums cannot concern immigration. At least we can now hope an interesting election with meaningful debates.