Montenegro: Prime-minister Djukanovic’s house of cards

On the eve of parliamentary elections in Montenegro the police arrested a certain group of people; the arrestees were indicted on a charge of hatching a plot, breaking into the parliament and an attempt on prime-minister Milo Djukanovic’s life. The public prosecutor’s office of Montenegro claimed the conspirators’ purpose was the victory of opposition in the parliamentary elections.

Milivoje Katnić, Montenegro’s Chief Special Prosecutor for Organized Crime, was quick enough to claim, a very powerful criminal organization nearly 50 men strong had been detected, with Russians, Serbs and Montenegrins participating in it. Katnić explained that Russian nationalists had organized the group designed to have the Montenegrin pro-Western policy buried and prevent the country from joining NATO.

At the same time many Western mass media pointed out quite an odd behavior of Serbian prime-minister Aleksandar Vučić. A few days after Katnić’s statement he made it public that Serbian security service had detained several men spying upon Montenegrin prime-minister and even developed proof and got suspects’ admission. Little wonder it looked rather strange as if Vučić, a proved ally of Kremlin, were playing into Djukanovic hands.

The authorities of Serbia and Montenegro apparently tried to take advantage of anti-Russian message pursuing strong backing from the West. However, new actors on the international scene may bring Djukanovic’s house of cards to a collapse.

Changes like that are mainly concerned with US-President-elect Donald Trump, who promised during his election campaign to put a regime change policy and nation building to an end.

A short while ago Trump told The New York Times reporters the US should not be a nation builder and interfere into the other countries state regimes. He also noted it would be nice if Americans got along with Russia and he would be personally glad to be on good terms with Putin.

So Djukanovic’s expectations the USA would extend its support over Montenegro in exchange for sanctions against Russia turned out to be a fatal flaw. Will he appeal to NATO? Quite doubtful. Trump even raised a question about the very NATO existence in the way we see it today.

Europe is likely to get rid of Djukanivic soon, too. Pasi Eronen, an expert of the US-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, believes that the forthcoming parliamentary elections-2017 in the Netherlands and Germany as well as presidential elections in France (April, 2017) will have profound geopolitical consequences for Russia. Staunch Russophobes may be forced out of top government echelons to let pragmatic Russia-friendly politicians come in to stay.

Milo Djukanovic used to enjoy Kremlin’s support and be a Russia’s reliable partner. As soon as friendship with the East turned unprofitable he betrayed his allies and let down his own nation in chase of Western temptation. He left no stone unturned to fulfill his promises to the EU and NATO. He feared defeat in the elections like plague. Winston Churchill was right to say: defeat is one thing, disgrace is another.

robinfred said:

On the eve of parliamentary elections in Montenegro the police arrested a certain group of people; the arrestees were indicted on a charge of hatching a plot, breaking into the parliament and an attempt on prime-minister Milo Djukanovic’s life. The public prosecutor’s office of Montenegro claimed the conspirators’ purpose was the victory of opposition in the parliamentary elections.

Milivoje Katnić, Montenegro’s Chief Special Prosecutor for Organized Crime, was quick enough to claim, a very powerful criminal organization nearly 50 men strong had been detected, with Russians, Serbs and Montenegrins participating in it. Katnić explained that Russian nationalists had organized the group designed to have the Montenegrin pro-Western policy buried and prevent the country from joining NATO.

At the same time many Western mass media pointed out quite an odd behavior of Serbian prime-minister Aleksandar Vučić. A few days after Katnić’s statement he made it public that Serbian security service had detained several men spying upon Montenegrin prime-minister and even developed proof and got suspects’ admission. Little wonder it looked rather strange as if Vučić, a proved ally of Kremlin, were playing into Djukanovic hands.

The authorities of Serbia and Montenegro apparently tried to take advantage of anti-Russian message pursuing strong backing from the West. However, new actors on the international scene may bring Djukanovic’s house of cards to a collapse.

Changes like that are mainly concerned with US-President-elect Donald Trump, who promised during his election campaign to put a regime change policy and nation building to an end.

A short while ago Trump told The New York Times reporters the US should not be a nation builder and interfere into the other countries state regimes. He also noted it would be nice if Americans got along with Russia and he would be personally glad to be on good terms with Putin.

So Djukanovic’s expectations the USA would extend its support over Montenegro in exchange for sanctions against Russia turned out to be a fatal flaw. Will he appeal to NATO? Quite doubtful. Trump even raised a question about the very NATO existence in the way we see it today.

Europe is likely to get rid of Djukanivic soon, too. Pasi Eronen, an expert of the US-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, believes that the forthcoming parliamentary elections-2017 in the Netherlands and Germany as well as presidential elections in France (April, 2017) will have profound geopolitical consequences for Russia. Staunch Russophobes may be forced out of top government echelons to let pragmatic Russia-friendly politicians come in to stay.

Milo Djukanovic used to enjoy Kremlin’s support and be a Russia’s reliable partner. As soon as friendship with the East turned unprofitable he betrayed his allies and let down his own nation in chase of Western temptation. He left no stone unturned to fulfill his promises to the EU and NATO. He feared defeat in the elections like plague. Winston Churchill was right to say: defeat is one thing, disgrace is another.

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The EU is working on that.