Yup, I think a Scottish yes-to-independence vote would be pretty much guaranteed. NI is a tricky one, but a Brexit could serve to reignite the sectarian conflict as the pro-EU and pro-reunification side might well find common cause. Wales is generally anti-independence, but strip it of all the assistance that it has received from the EU over the years and they might consider independence within the EU as the lesser of two evils. Frankly, who has treated Wales better? Brussels or London?
Nick Cohen, not a writer I'm usually very enthusiastic about, makes a very interesting point
in today's Observer when he talks about the degree of faith the 'out' campaign seems to have in the EU.
The loudest noises in the out campaign (Farage, Redwood, Cash, Hannan, Carswell, Fox et al) are deluded, xenophobic, and reactionary little Englanders. There are a few seriously eurosceptic voices that are not, that make excellent points about the EU's democratic deficit and dictatorial instincts, especially in the economic realm, but they aren't the ones setting the agenda.
Those in favour of Bremain should be simultaneously horrified that the bunch of braying, white, old Tories are the ones painting the image of Britain in a terrible light to the rest of the entire world, but also slightly heartened to remember that British people generally are not as reactionary or as short-sighted and dogmatic as the richest, whitest and most conservative element of British society would have us believe.