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Thread: When the Data Refute the Model

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    When the Data Refute the Model

    This is pretty straightforward. Paleoclimate evidence suggests climate model CO2 sensitivity is too high. What a shock.


    Study: High End Model Climate Sensitivities Not Supported by Paleo Evidence

    Guest essay by Eric Worrall University of Michigan researchers have done the unthinkable, and checked climate model predictions against available paleo-climate data to see if the predictions are plausible. Some of the latest climate models provide unrealistically high projections of future warming Date:April 30, 2020Source:University of MichiganSummary:A new study from climate researchers concludes that some…
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    " . . . In a letter scheduled for publication April 30 in the journal Nature Climate Change, the researchers say that projections from one of the leading models, known as CESM2, are not supported by geological evidence from a previous warming period roughly 50 million years ago.
    The researchers used the CESM2 model to simulate temperatures during the Early Eocene, a time when rainforests thrived in the tropics of the New World, according to fossil evidence.
    But the CESM2 model projected Early Eocene land temperatures exceeding 55 degrees Celsius (131 F) in the tropics, which is much higher than the temperature tolerance of plant photosynthesis — conflicting with the fossil evidence. On average across the globe, the model projected surface temperatures at least 6 C (11 F) warmer than estimates based on geological evidence.
    “Some of the newest models used to make future predictions may be too sensitive to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide and thus predict too much warming,” said U-M’s Chris Poulsen, a professor in the U-M Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and one of the study’s three authors.

    Our study implies that CESM2’s climate sensitivity of 5.3 C is likely too high. This means that its prediction of future warming under a high-CO2 scenario would be too high as well,” said Zhu, first author of the Nature Climate Change letter. . . .

    The paywalled study is available here."

    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

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    Re: When the Data Refute the Model

    Complete with a Boomer-pleasing pic.


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    Re: When the Data Refute the Model

    High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate [link]
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

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    Re: When the Data Refute the Model

    Breaking : Climate Models Don’t Work

    Posted on May 4, 2020 by tonyheller
    [INDENT]“a study published in April which said the Arctic would start losing its ice in summer very soon, even if we managed to rapidly reduce carbon emissions in the short-term.
    “This really surprised us,” said Dirk Notz of the University of Hamburg, who led that research. “The Arctic will become practically sea-ice free in September before the year 2050… in all scenarios.”
    But a closer look at CESM2 has suggested a potential explanation for the extreme result – it could simply be wrong.

    Climate scientists used to predict an ice-free Arctic every summer, but are getting smarter now and push their worthless forecasts out past their retirement date. . . .
    Last edited by nota bene; 05-05-20 at 09:56 AM. Reason: Rule 9
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

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    Re: When the Data Refute the Model

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate [link]
    But it is supported by the religion of AGW.
    A Joe Biden type remark:

    "People are dying who haven't died before."

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    Re: When the Data Refute the Model

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord of Planar View Post
    But it is supported by the religion of AGW.
    Not religion, a cult!

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    Re: When the Data Refute the Model

    Quote Originally Posted by PoS View Post
    Not religion, a cult!
    I was being nice.
    A Joe Biden type remark:

    "People are dying who haven't died before."

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    Re: When the Data Refute the Model

    Quick! We gotta get new data. See if you guys can find some data that actually fits our models for a change, will ya? I can't make up data all by myself. We need a consensus.

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    Re: When the Data Refute the Model

    Quote Originally Posted by humbolt View Post
    Quick! We gotta get new data. See if you guys can find some data that actually fits our models for a change, will ya? I can't make up data all by myself. We need a consensus.
    Well said.
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

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    Re: When the Data Refute the Model

    Stefan Rahmstorf concedes the models are faulty.

    Climate Alarmist Rahmstorf Quietly Concedes Models Are Crap, Running Way Too Hot

    By P Gosselin on 15. May 2020
    Share this...


    Stefan Rahmstorf on the IPCC modelling breakdown: Reason to breathe a sigh of relief, new climate models are far too sensitive.
    By Die kalte Sonne
    (Translated by P. Gosselin)
    DER SPIEGEL provides a regular platform for the controversial climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf. On 12 May 2020 he was allowed to:
    Stronger temperature rise: Why the climate models are running hot
    A guest article by Stefan Rahmstorf
    New calculations have alarmed the scientific community – they suggest the earth could be more sensitive to greenhouse gases. Will global warming be stronger than previously thought?
    Here the quick reader will suspect one of the usual Rahmstorf climate alarm pieces. And this is exactly how the beginning of the article reads. However, it deals with a tricky topic that will certainly hit the Potsdam scientists quite hard to the stomach.
    Huge mishap
    In the course of the preparation of the 6th Climate Status Report, the IPCC has again run a large number of climate models. This time, however, a huge mishap has occurred. Several of the models have delivered far too much warming, which is not compatible with the measured data of the last decades. This fundamentally casts the models into question. They suggest that the warming effect of CO2 is far too high. A scandal that should actually cast everything into question. . . .
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

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