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Thread: The IPCC at a Dead End?

  1. #171
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    Re: The IPCC at a Dead End?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    Oh but it did. You just didn't understand it.

    ". . . Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir−Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities, which is consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios. Major TCs pose, by far, the greatest threat to lives and property. Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade, with a 95% CI of 2 to 15% per decade."
    There is nothing in that quote about frequencies. Where did you even get that from?

    You really are clueless about this.


  2. #172
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    Re: The IPCC at a Dead End?

    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz View Post
    There is nothing in that quote about frequencies. Where did you even get that from?

    You really are clueless about this.

    You are making a fool of yourself.

    ". . . Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir−Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities, which is consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios. Major TCs pose, by far, the greatest threat to lives and property. Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade, with a 95% CI of 2 to 15% per decade."

    "Exceedance" has no meaning apart from frequency.
    "Proportion" of major hurricanes has no meaning apart from frequency.
    "Trends" are trends in frequency.
    "Exceedance probability" is a reference to frequency.

    Study and get back to me when you've learned the basics.
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

  3. #173
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    Re: The IPCC at a Dead End?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    "Exceedance" has no meaning apart from frequency.
    "Proportion" of major hurricanes has no meaning apart from frequency.
    "Trends" are trends in frequency.
    "Exceedance probability" is a reference to frequency.
    That is all completely ridiculous.

    Later, Jack... see you on your next false or misleading cut and paste.

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    Re: The IPCC at a Dead End?

    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz View Post
    That is all completely ridiculous.

    Later, Jack... see you on your next false or misleading cut and paste.
    I see you don't even grasp the basics. I can't dumb it down further.
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

  5. #175
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    Re: The IPCC at a Dead End?

    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz View Post
    Actually... I walked away from Jack's repeated lying. He never could show what I keep saying is wrong.

    But feel free to go back over to that thread and prove me wrong. Show where the ClimateRealism article even mentions storm intensity even once.
    Jack's post #72 is a pretty dang good argument, which you failed to refute.

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    Re: The IPCC at a Dead End?

    The Reassuring Facts About The Climate In 2019


    • Date: 26/05/20
    • Press Release, Global Warming Policy Foundation

    London, 26 May: 2019 saw the continuation of many climate trends, most of them unalarming and even reassuring. That’s the conclusion of a new reportpublished by the Global Warming Policy Foundation.


    According to the author, Professor Ole Humlum, although there has been a gentle warming in the last 40 years, storm activity is unchanged and snow cover remains stable. And while sea ice has declined, much of this may be natural variation.

    “This report focuses on empirical observations and not on climate modelling speculations, says Professor Humlum. “We should therefore be greatly reassured by what these data are telling us”.

    Professor Humlum also points out that new data on rising ocean temperatures raise interesting questions about the source of the heat.

    “We can detect a great deal of heat rising from the bottom of the oceans. This obviously cannot be anything to do with human activity. So although people say the oceans are warming, in reality there is still much to learn.”

    And Professor Humlum points out that where there is ignorance, it is always wise to be cautious.

    “We have learned in recent months about the potentially high cost of leaping to conclusions. We must take more care in our response to small changes in the climate.”

    The full report can be downloaded here
    The State of the Climate 2019 (pdf)
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

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