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Scientists predict more major hurricanes than normal in 2020 season

JacksinPA

JacksinPA

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Scientists predict more major hurricanes than normal in 2020 season | TheHill

Meteorologists are forecasting a significant hurricane and tropical storm season for the Atlantic coast in 2020, according to researchers at Colorado State University.

Experts have listed the names of 16 storms, including the prospects of eight turning into hurricanes, according to a report from CNN.

The advanced forecast predicts four of the hurricanes will become major storms registering as category 3 to 5, with winds amounting to 111 mph.
=====================================================
Just what we don't need.

Our entire area lost electricity for 7 days during Hurricane Sandy. Historically, prolonged power outages around here are common. When I moved into my current house I insisted on a 14 kW propane-fueled generator that kicks on within 20 seconds of the power failing. So far I've only had to use it for 36 hours straight. With 2 full propane bottles, I can run on the generator continuously for over a week before I need to get them topped off.
 
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JacksinPA said:
Scientists predict more major hurricanes than normal in 2020 season | TheHill

Meteorologists are forecasting a significant hurricane and tropical storm season for the Atlantic coast in 2020, according to researchers at Colorado State University.

Experts have listed the names of 16 storms, including the prospects of eight turning into hurricanes, according to a report from CNN.

The advanced forecast predicts four of the hurricanes will become major storms registering as category 3 to 5, with winds amounting to 111 mph.
=====================================================
Just what we don't need.

Our entire area lost electricity for 7 days during Hurricane Sandy. Historically, prolonged power outages around here are common. When I moved into my current house I insisted on a 14 kW propane-fueled generator that kicks on within 20 seconds of the power failing. So far I've only had to use it for 36 hours straight. With 2 full propane bottles, I can run on the generator continuously for over a week before I need to get them topped off.
Click to expand...

Were not they completely wrong last year?
 
Scientists predict more major hurricanes than normal in 2020 season

In other news, Francisco Franco is still dead, and the sun will rise in the east.
 
"Only in seven seasons—1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, and 2019—has more than one Category 5 hurricane formed. Only in 2005 have more than two Category 5 hurricanes formed, and only in 2007 and 2017 did more than one make landfall at Category 5 strength. The years 2016 through 2019 are the longest sequence of consecutive years which all featured at least one Category 5 hurricane each."
 
JacksinPA said:
Scientists predict more major hurricanes than normal in 2020 season | TheHill

Meteorologists are forecasting a significant hurricane and tropical storm season for the Atlantic coast in 2020, according to researchers at Colorado State University.

Experts have listed the names of 16 storms, including the prospects of eight turning into hurricanes, according to a report from CNN.

The advanced forecast predicts four of the hurricanes will become major storms registering as category 3 to 5, with winds amounting to 111 mph.
=====================================================
Just what we don't need.

Our entire area lost electricity for 7 days during Hurricane Sandy. Historically, prolonged power outages around here are common. When I moved into my current house I insisted on a 14 kW propane-fueled generator that kicks on within 20 seconds of the power failing. So far I've only had to use it for 36 hours straight. With 2 full propane bottles, I can run on the generator continuously for over a week before I need to get them topped off.
Click to expand...

I don’t like predictions. The weatherman said it would be warm and sunny, but it was cold and snowed. I will wait until it happens.
 
"Like the birth pangs of a pregnant woman"...
 
Is that slightly more or significantly more than would be within the normal range of variability?

I mean just more than noraml has a 50% chance of being right...
 
JacksinPA said:
Scientists predict more major hurricanes than normal in 2020 season | TheHill

Meteorologists are forecasting a significant hurricane and tropical storm season for the Atlantic coast in 2020, according to researchers at Colorado State University.

Experts have listed the names of 16 storms, including the prospects of eight turning into hurricanes, according to a report from CNN.

The advanced forecast predicts four of the hurricanes will become major storms registering as category 3 to 5, with winds amounting to 111 mph.
=====================================================
Just what we don't need.

Our entire area lost electricity for 7 days during Hurricane Sandy. Historically, prolonged power outages around here are common. When I moved into my current house I insisted on a 14 kW propane-fueled generator that kicks on within 20 seconds of the power failing. So far I've only had to use it for 36 hours straight. With 2 full propane bottles, I can run on the generator continuously for over a week before I need to get them topped off.
Click to expand...

Consider the source.

The Hill is actually citing CNN who pulled an obscure study from Colorado State University (which does not border any coast, much less the Atlantic). When you read the actual study even they admit their predictions are only 65% accurate. If you look at their prediction last year they completely blew it. They had predicted 13 named storms in April 2019, then revised that prediction to 14 in June 2019. In reality there were 18 named storms in 2019. They had predicted 4 Major Hurricane Days (MHD) in April 2019, then upgraded that prediction to 5 days in June 2019. There were actually 10 MHDs in 2019. So their predictions are not very credible. The kind of source CNN loves to use.


Sources:
Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts for 2019 - Colorado State University, December 12, 2019
Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2020 - Colorado State University, April 2, 2020
 
JacksinPA said:
Scientists predict more major hurricanes than normal in 2020 season | TheHill

Meteorologists are forecasting a significant hurricane and tropical storm season for the Atlantic coast in 2020, according to researchers at Colorado State University.

Experts have listed the names of 16 storms, including the prospects of eight turning into hurricanes, according to a report from CNN.

The advanced forecast predicts four of the hurricanes will become major storms registering as category 3 to 5, with winds amounting to 111 mph.
=====================================================
Just what we don't need.

Our entire area lost electricity for 7 days during Hurricane Sandy. Historically, prolonged power outages around here are common. When I moved into my current house I insisted on a 14 kW propane-fueled generator that kicks on within 20 seconds of the power failing. So far I've only had to use it for 36 hours straight. With 2 full propane bottles, I can run on the generator continuously for over a week before I need to get them topped off.
Click to expand...

I hope so. A foot of rain will drown COVID-19
 

Figure: Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) -- 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL.

 
JacksinPA said:
Scientists predict more major hurricanes than normal in 2020 season | TheHill

Meteorologists are forecasting a significant hurricane and tropical storm season for the Atlantic coast in 2020
Blah ... blah ... blah ... blah
Click to expand...

From the link in the original post:

The models use data based on 40 years of weather patterns and conditions,
...the presence of El Niño typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity, which
very few models call for the existence of this year.
​
Then there's this tidbit in the news today:

Trump’s advisers doubt White House’s coronavirus deaths estimate

Anthony Fauci ... there are too many variables at play in the pandemic to
make the models reliable: "I've looked at all the models. I've spent a lot
of time on the models. They don't tell you anything. You can't really rely
upon models."​

In other words:

Models? I've looked at all the models.
I've spent a lot of time on the models.
You can't rely on the stinking models!
Click to expand...

Actually, almost the same words
 
Glitch said:
Consider the source.

The Hill is actually citing CNN who pulled an obscure study from Colorado State University (which does not border any coast, much less the Atlantic). When you read the actual study even they admit their predictions are only 65% accurate. If you look at their prediction last year they completely blew it. They had predicted 13 named storms in April 2019, then revised that prediction to 14 in June 2019. In reality there were 18 named storms in 2019. They had predicted 4 Major Hurricane Days (MHD) in April 2019, then upgraded that prediction to 5 days in June 2019. There were actually 10 MHDs in 2019. So their predictions are not very credible. The kind of source CNN loves to use.


Sources:
Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts for 2019 - Colorado State University, December 12, 2019
Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2020 - Colorado State University, April 2, 2020
Click to expand...

65% eh? LOL!!!

Do you think I can get half thier pay for being 50% accurate?
 
Glitch said:
Consider the source.

The Hill is actually citing CNN who pulled an obscure study from Colorado State University (which does not border any coast, much less the Atlantic). When you read the actual study even they admit their predictions are only 65% accurate. If you look at their prediction last year they completely blew it. They had predicted 13 named storms in April 2019, then revised that prediction to 14 in June 2019. In reality there were 18 named storms in 2019. They had predicted 4 Major Hurricane Days (MHD) in April 2019, then upgraded that prediction to 5 days in June 2019. There were actually 10 MHDs in 2019. So their predictions are not very credible. The kind of source CNN loves to use.


Sources:
Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts for 2019 - Colorado State University, December 12, 2019
Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2020 - Colorado State University, April 2, 2020
Click to expand...

/thread
 
Tim the plumber said:
65% eh? LOL!!!

Do you think I can get half thier pay for being 50% accurate?
Click to expand...

Isn't guessing which side of a flipped coin comes up statistically 50% accurate? So they are just slightly better than flipping a coin. I'll bet the pollsters during the 2016 election wish they were that accurate. :lamo
 
JacksinPA said:
Scientists predict more major hurricanes than normal in 2020 season | TheHill

Meteorologists are forecasting a significant hurricane and tropical storm season for the Atlantic coast in 2020, according to researchers at Colorado State University.

Experts have listed the names of 16 storms, including the prospects of eight turning into hurricanes, according to a report from CNN.

The advanced forecast predicts four of the hurricanes will become major storms registering as category 3 to 5, with winds amounting to 111 mph.
Click to expand...

Uh huh.

They said last year was gonna be a bitch kitty too. Not much happened.
 
Glitch said:
Isn't guessing which side of a flipped coin comes up statistically 50% accurate? So they are just slightly better than flipping a coin. I'll bet the pollsters during the 2016 election wish they were that accurate. :lamo
Click to expand...

Even easier, last year was lower than average so.. 65% is very easy.
 
JacksinPA said:
Scientists predict more major hurricanes than normal in 2020 season | TheHill

Meteorologists are forecasting a significant hurricane and tropical storm season for the Atlantic coast in 2020, according to researchers at Colorado State University.

Experts have listed the names of 16 storms, including the prospects of eight turning into hurricanes, according to a report from CNN.

The advanced forecast predicts four of the hurricanes will become major storms registering as category 3 to 5, with winds amounting to 111 mph.
=====================================================
Just what we don't need.

Our entire area lost electricity for 7 days during Hurricane Sandy. Historically, prolonged power outages around here are common. When I moved into my current house I insisted on a 14 kW propane-fueled generator that kicks on within 20 seconds of the power failing. So far I've only had to use it for 36 hours straight. With 2 full propane bottles, I can run on the generator continuously for over a week before I need to get them topped off.
Click to expand...

I hope someone keeps this thread alive during the hurricane season.

Such predictions are so idiotic.
 
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