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Thread: A way to convince the deniers

  1. #521
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    Re: A way to convince the deniers

    Quote Originally Posted by bluesmoke View Post
    You've got an expert. I've got thousands.
    “Why 100? If I were wrong, one would have been enough. [In response to the book "Hundred Authors Against Einstein"]”

    Albert Einstein
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

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    Re: A way to convince the deniers

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    If you have a study that shown an "acceptable scenario" with a sea level rise of 20 feet by year 2100, cite it.
    These are the scenarios, and even RCP8.5 is not acceptable.
    https://scenarios.globalchange.gov/sea-level-rise
    Attachment 67275847
    The high end is 8.2 feet by 2100, and even with the near impossible RCP8.5, they only assign
    a sea level rise that high with a 0.1% possibility, yes one in one thousand!


    I will clarify. Studies of sea levels often include ranges of various scenario of just a few inches to, in this case, 20 ft. in sea level rise. While IPCC rejected the study that showed the 20 ft scenario as possibility, that study did include acceptable data of lesser rise in sea level that the IPCC did use. The IPCC, though, may have actually gotten that same data from a different study. Many different studies that have different projections use the same, though not all the same, data.

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    Re: A way to convince the deniers

    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

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    Re: A way to convince the deniers

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    “Why 100? If I were wrong, one would have been enough. [In response to the book "Hundred Authors Against Einstein"]”

    Albert Einstein
    That's what flat earthers say

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    Re: A way to convince the deniers

    Quote Originally Posted by bluesmoke View Post
    I will clarify. Studies of sea levels often include ranges of various scenario of just a few inches to, in this case, 20 ft. in sea level rise. While IPCC rejected the study that showed the 20 ft scenario as possibility, that study did include acceptable data of lesser rise in sea level that the IPCC did use. The IPCC, though, may have actually gotten that same data from a different study. Many different studies that have different projections use the same, though not all the same, data.
    So you still cannot cite this supposed study that projects a 20 foot sea level rise by year 2100.
    Without the study, there is no way to tell if the scenario used is even plausible, or if that is what their prediction was!

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    Re: A way to convince the deniers

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    So you still cannot cite this supposed study that projects a 20 foot sea level rise by year 2100.
    Without the study, there is no way to tell if the scenario used is even plausible, or if that is what their prediction was!
    We all know that there is no possible way any such sea level rise is at all possible without a massive asteroid strike so don't hold your breath.

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    Re: A way to convince the deniers

    Quote Originally Posted by Tim the plumber View Post
    We all know that there is no possible way any such sea level rise is at all possible without a massive asteroid strike so don't hold your breath.
    I am thinking that one study, stated that a 20 foot increase was possible at some undetermined point in the future,
    based on past sea levels. It looks like the actual studies peak out at about 2.5 meters by 2100, but even those
    are a 0.1% possibility.

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    Re: A way to convince the deniers

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    I am thinking that one study, stated that a 20 foot increase was possible at some undetermined point in the future,
    based on past sea levels. It looks like the actual studies peak out at about 2.5 meters by 2100, but even those
    are a 0.1% possibility.
    And we all know that they are equally impossible. Just drawing lines on a map and hoping. No mechanism.

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    Re: A way to convince the deniers

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    So you still cannot cite this supposed study that projects a 20 foot sea level rise by year 2100.
    Without the study, there is no way to tell if the scenario used is even plausible, or if that is what their prediction was!
    They just believe the dogma and deny the science.

    A 20 ft rise would be a 0.006098 kilometer rise.

    The ocean has an area of 361 million square kilometers.

    This would require an increased ocean volume of 2.20 million cubic kilometers or 2.20 million gigatons of ice melting.

    Divide by 80 years, means around 100 times the net ice loss as estimated by some of their alarmist material today, or 27,500 gigatons annually. I believe they like to use something like 280 gigatons annually.

    Did someone crashed a Mars probe? Just looking at my spreadsheet, 20 ft. is 240 inches. 3mm annually for 80 years is 240 mm. It looks like someone didn't look at the units of measurement correctly.

    I wonder which of their holy bloggers made that mistake?
    A Joe Biden type remark:

    "People are dying who haven't died before."

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    Re: A way to convince the deniers

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    I am thinking that one study, stated that a 20 foot increase was possible at some undetermined point in the future,
    based on past sea levels. It looks like the actual studies peak out at about 2.5 meters by 2100, but even those
    are a 0.1% possibility.
    That still means over 900 thousand gigatons of melt, averaging over 11,300 gigatons annually.

    The heat required is enormous to melt that much ice. 333.55 joules per gram, at zero degrees Celsius. A joule is 1 watt-second.
    A Joe Biden type remark:

    "People are dying who haven't died before."

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