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The Warming of Winter

calamity

calamity

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As most of us have noticed, winter is not quite what it used to be.

How Warming Winters Are Affecting Everything : NPR


Winters are warming faster than other seasons across much of the United States....


Four of the warmest Januaries have occurred since 2016. So far, this winter has been one of the warmest on record for much of the United States...

"The cold seasons are warming faster than the warm seasons," says Deke Arndt, chief of climate monitoring at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information. "The colder times of day are warming faster than warmer times of day. And the colder places are warming faster than the warmer places."
Click to expand...
 
Yep, we no longer hire snow plowing service as the number of times it's needed dramatically dropped over years. Climate is changing and it's becoming more and more visible but deniers will have blinders no matter what.
 
This has been the mildest winter in my lifetime. Its been fan F'ing tastic. If this is global warming, then gimme more!!!
 
Slavister said:
Yep, we no longer hire snow plowing service as the number of times it's needed dramatically dropped over years. Climate is changing and it's becoming more and more visible but deniers will have blinders no matter what.
Click to expand...
Sorry but the denial is on the part of the proponents of AGW.
The concept of AGW, is that the highs and lows will increase equally, and that diurnal asymmetry is
temporary. Publications from over a century ago, validate that the asymmetrical warming from CO2
is the way CO2 warms. (roughly 75% winter and evening lows, and 25% daytime highs.)
https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1995/1995_Hansen_ha09800r.pdf
Finally, we note that the claim made by "greenhouse critics" in the popular press, that global warming is
a "benign" nighttime phenomenon, is incorrect. The temperature changes, as we have shown,
represent the combination of an overall warming and a damping of the diurnal cycle.
We can safely predict that on the long run the effect of the diurnal damping on maximum temperatures
will be small, for the following three reasons. First, even during the past four decades the 0.56°C
damping of the diurnal cycle did not eliminate daytime warming, but rather reduced it from 0.56°C to 0.28°C.
Second, as illustrated by Fig. 21, almost all of the damping caused by a climate forcing occurs immediately
with the introduction of the forcing, while the mean temperature rise is delayed by the thermal inertia of
the climate system.
Click to expand...
As for the historic reference to diurnal asymmetry, it was noted by Tyndail in Arrhenius's 1896 paper
https://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf
A great deal has been written on the influence of the absorption of the
atmosphere upon the climate.
Tyndail in particular has pointed out the enormous importance of this question.
To him it was chiefly the diurnal and annual variations of the temperature that were
lessoned by the circumstance.
Click to expand...
 
Fletch said:
This has been the mildest winter in my lifetime. Its been fan F'ing tastic. If this is global warming, then gimme more!!!
Click to expand...

Tim the plumber said:
This is a good thing surely?
Click to expand...

Yeah, we are messing with climate and ecosystems and you think it's a good thing? Some people are just too dumb.

Why don't you talk to people flooded by Mississippi in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia about how great this is. One of 1000s of unintended consequences.

longview said:
The concept of AGW, is that the highs and lows will increase equally
Click to expand...

Provide a single shred of evidence for above statement. Where does AGW stipulate equal increases of highs and lows?
 
Slavister said:
Yeah, we are messing with climate and ecosystems and you think it's a good thing? Some people are just too dumb.

Why don't you talk to people flooded by Mississippi in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia about how great this is. One of 1000s of unintended consequences.



Provide a single shred of evidence for above statement. Where does AGW stipulate equal increases of highs and lows?
Click to expand...

Flooding of the Mississippi river happens all the time, maybe people should stop building in flood plains.
 
Slavister said:
Yeah, we are messing with climate and ecosystems and you think it's a good thing? Some people are just too dumb.

Why don't you talk to people flooded by Mississippi in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia about how great this is. One of 1000s of unintended consequences.
Click to expand...
Are you saying those states never had floods before? The idea that EVERY case of extreme weather can be blamed on climate change from now on is idiotic.
 
jdog21 said:
Flooding of the Mississippi river happens all the time, maybe people should stop building in flood plains.
Click to expand...

Fletch said:
Are you saying those states never had floods before? The idea that EVERY case of extreme weather can be blamed on climate change from now on is idiotic.
Click to expand...

In case you did not notice this thread is about patterns, over time. Warm winters also happened before. But if warm winters and floodings happen more often over years, there is an underlying trend here.


Scientists say the Mississippi is flooding more than it has in 500 years — and we caused it

But yeah, we all know you dismiss scientists as part of a "Deep State", so that's Ok.
 
Here in Texas, the day before a big cold front is usually very warm and sometimes record-breaking.

I suspect the climate would act the same way.

Winter is Coming back.
 
Slavister said:
Yeah, we are messing with climate and ecosystems and you think it's a good thing? Some people are just too dumb.

Why don't you talk to people flooded by Mississippi in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia about how great this is. One of 1000s of unintended consequences.



Provide a single shred of evidence for above statement. Where does AGW stipulate equal increases of highs and lows?
Click to expand...
https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1995/1995_Hansen_ha09800r.pdf
Finally, we note that the claim made by "greenhouse critics" in the popular press, that global warming is
a "benign" nighttime phenomenon, is incorrect. The temperature changes, as we have shown,
represent the combination of an overall warming and a damping of the diurnal cycle.
We can safely predict that on the long run the effect of the diurnal damping on maximum temperatures
will be small, for the following three reasons. First, even during the past four decades the 0.56°C
damping of the diurnal cycle did not eliminate daytime warming, but rather reduced it from 0.56°C to 0.28°C.
Second, as illustrated by Fig. 21, almost all of the damping caused by a climate forcing occurs immediately
with the introduction of the forcing, while the mean temperature rise is delayed by the thermal inertia of
the climate system.
Click to expand...
So James Hansen, the guy who started all this, thinks that damping of High temperatures will get smaller,
and eventually daily highs will increase roughly the same as nighttime lows.
Yet as I have shown more than a century ago, the diurnal asymmetry was present, it is likely an ongoing thing.
Consider that if Hansen's wonderland model incorporated his belief that the highs and the lows would increase the same.
It might make the model run hot!
 
Slavister said:
Yeah, we are messing with climate and ecosystems and you think it's a good thing? Some people are just too dumb.

Why don't you talk to people flooded by Mississippi in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia about how great this is. One of 1000s of unintended consequences.



Provide a single shred of evidence for above statement. Where does AGW stipulate equal increases of highs and lows?
Click to expand...

Given the sea level rise due to warming is about 2 inches I don't think the flooding has anything to do with sea level rise due to human caused climate change. I think all normal climate problems are being blamed on CO2 with no scientific justification.

Still the warming of winter temperatures is surely a good thing.

Not as good as the increase in plant fertility due to warmer climates and increased CO2 though.
 
Slavister said:
In case you did not notice this thread is about patterns, over time. Warm winters also happened before. But if warm winters and floodings happen more often over years, there is an underlying trend here.


Scientists say the Mississippi is flooding more than it has in 500 years — and we caused it

But yeah, we all know you dismiss scientists as part of a "Deep State", so that's Ok.
Click to expand...

Your article claims that this flooding is caused by the construction of levees and the engineering of the river not global warming.
 
Fletch said:
Your article claims that this flooding is caused by the construction of levees and the engineering of the river not global warming.
Click to expand...

Sorry but my point is that human intervention leads to a lot of unintended consequences as this article illustrates. It's extremely shortsighted to celebrate warmer winders without understanding all the other consequences global warming is leading to, including extreme weather events, even if not these floodings specifically.

Tim the plumber said:
Still the warming of winter temperatures is surely a good thing.
Click to expand...

No, because of all the other unintended consequences of us messing with fragile environmental systems. Also, we are changing things at incredibly high speed. Environmental systems cannot adopt fast enough to our "experiment", when they used to glacier-speed-changes.

longview said:
... daily highs will increase roughly the same as nighttime lows ...
Click to expand...

who cares. We are not talking about daily changes on this thread.
 
Slavister said:
Sorry but my point is that human intervention leads to a lot of unintended consequences as this article illustrates. It's extremely shortsighted to celebrate warmer winders without understanding all the other consequences global warming is leading to, including extreme weather events, even if not these floodings specifically.



No, because of all the other unintended consequences of us messing with fragile environmental systems. Also, we are changing things at incredibly high speed. Environmental systems cannot adopt fast enough to our "experiment", when they used to glacier-speed-changes.



who cares. We are not talking about daily changes on this thread.
Click to expand...

The climate changes all the time. The last couple of decades have been exceptionally stable. Lots faster climate change has been recorded within the instrumental record than has happened since 1950. The longer view of history shopws clear evidence of very much faster climate change with no mass extinction events.

This thread is talking about the waming of winter. Do you think that this, on its' own, is a good thing?
 
Slavister said:
Sorry but my point is that human intervention leads to a lot of unintended consequences as this article illustrates.
Click to expand...
Yeah? No kidding. If you want all the advantages of modern society you will have to live with some of the negative aspects that will come with that.
It's extremely shortsighted to celebrate warmer winders without understanding all the other consequences global warming is leading to, including extreme weather events, even if not these floodings specifically.
Click to expand...
I plan to continue celebrating warmer winters because that is a benefit to not only me but to all of mankind. Be thankful its not cooling. That would be a disaster.
 
Tim the plumber said:
The climate changes all the time. The last couple of decades have been exceptionally stable. Lots faster climate change has been recorded within the instrumental record than has happened since 1950. The longer view of history shopws clear evidence of very much faster climate change with no mass extinction events.

This thread is talking about the waming of winter. Do you think that this, on its' own, is a good thing?
Click to expand...

No, climate is changing much faster now than before.

As for warmer winters, they may feel nicer, but then there are all kinds of systems out there that may get affected... e.g. there will be more pollen, there will be more ticks carrying Lyme disease (temperatures below freezing kill them off better), snow helps water resources out west, peach trees in Georgia won't produce as much as they need certain number of days of lower tempratures, etc. etc, etc.

Fletch said:
Yeah? No kidding. If you want all the advantages of modern society you will have to live with some of the negative aspects that will come with that. I plan to continue celebrating warmer winters because that is a benefit to not only me but to all of mankind. Be thankful its not cooling. That would be a disaster.
Click to expand...

"Negative aspects", like making life barely sustainable in a few generations? Yeah, enjoy it.
 
Slavister said:
who cares. We are not talking about daily changes on this thread.
Click to expand...
The thread is titled " The Warming of Winter",
and is directly related to the asymmetry between warming affecting highs and lows.
I cited something mentioned over a century ago that
Tyndail in particular has pointed out the enormous importance of this question.
To him it was chiefly the diurnal and annual variations of the temperature that were
lessoned by the circumstance.
Click to expand...
so it is not only the diurnal but annual variation.
The reality is that ~75% of the observed increase in average temperature over the last century,
has come from winter and evening lows, not going as low.
 
Slavister said:
No, climate is changing much faster now than before.

As for warmer winters, they may feel nicer, but then there are all kinds of systems out there that may get affected... e.g. there will be more pollen, there will be more ticks carrying Lyme disease (temperatures below freezing kill them off better), snow helps water resources out west, peach trees in Georgia won't produce as much as they need certain number of days of lower tempratures, etc. etc, etc.



"Negative aspects", like making life barely sustainable in a few generations? Yeah, enjoy it.
Click to expand...

We can have a look at the instrumental record if you wish and see how quickly the climate has changed in the past. You will be upset though.

Given life is easier in Florida than Alaska for somebody on the same income and wealth it is generally better to live in a warmer place. Generally you get more food per hectare as well. I'm sure that you might manage to find some very tiny negative effects such a reduced Maple Syrup production from Maple trees, the farmers have used modern technology to boost the syrup after taking it from the tree and now get more output.

You think that life will be barely sustainable in a few generations, why? What super bad thing do you think will happen? Do you imagine that there is any science to support it?
 
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