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Thread: 2019 2nd Hottest Year On Record

  1. #291
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    Re: 2019 2nd Hottest Year On Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    Actually, the paradigm will be flipped by Svensmark and Shaviv. Watts is more like a canary in the mineshaft, signaling something is wrong.
    Cosmic ray theory of global warming gets cold response | Cosmos

    Waiting for Gidot. Or the paradigm shift. Whatever.

    Meanwhile, the Earth burns.
    Last edited by jpn; 01-18-20 at 04:45 PM.
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    Re: 2019 2nd Hottest Year On Record

    Quote Originally Posted by jpn View Post
    Cosmic ray theory of global warming gets cold response | Cosmos

    Waiting for Gidot. Or the paradigm shift. Whatever.

    Meanwhile, the Earth burns.
    The deniers' alternative theories have so little credible that the deniers can't even agree on what alternative theory to believe in.

    "In an article for the Guardian, one of the researchers, Dana Nuccitelli points out another red flag with the climate-change-denying papers: “There is no cohesive, consistent alternative theory to human-caused global warming,” he writes. “Some blame global warming on the sun, others on orbital cycles of other planets, others on ocean cycles, and so on. There is a 97% expert consensus on a cohesive theory that’s overwhelmingly supported by the scientific evidence, but the 2–3% of papers that reject that consensus are all over the map, even contradicting each other.”"

    The 3% of scientific papers that deny climate change are all flawed — Quartz

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    Re: 2019 2nd Hottest Year On Record

    The devastating effects of climate change are being felt all across the world.

    The Top 10 Weather and Climate Stories of 2019 - Scientific American Blog Network

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    Re: 2019 2nd Hottest Year On Record

    Quote Originally Posted by jpn View Post
    Here's the problem with using climate denier websites to support your position. You can find any denier claim supported there. Any at all. And they can all be just as easily refuted:

    The 1970s Global Cooling Zombie Myth and the Tricks Some People Use to Keep it Alive, Part I
    Posted on 3 May 2018 by David Kirtle


    So that gets us nowhere.

    Admit it. You don't have the chops to really investigate the reality of climate change. Neither do I. So instead we're left with relying on our perception of what is reasonable to believe.

    I believe the vast majority of people who study this thing for a living and base their professional reputations on their work. I have no reason not to believe them.

    You believe in isolated websites run by people with nothing more than a High School degree, or a "scientist" who quit research fifty years ago to write novels and screenplays, and even a few actual scientists who claim lots of stuff but for some reason don't seem to move the needle much on the scientific consensus on climate change. On the contrary, the evidence today is just overwhelming and the deniers within the scientific community are more and more isolated and pathetic. Your reason for believing these people is obvious. It's not your penetrating insight. It's not your comprehensive grasp of the nuances of climate theory. No, they simply fit your preexisting ideology.
    I assume you noticed that the paper to which you linked had among its authors the same William Connolley who was banned from Wikipedia editing for "disappearing" global cooling papers.
    I started as a conventional AGW believer. I was repelled by the chicanery of AGW advocates and attracted by the insights or some skeptics' arguments.
    Most of all I was influenced by study of the history of science, where I do have chops, btw. In many cases of scientific revolution, newer, bigger science supplants older thinking. AGW theory is essentially a product of 19th century physics. The science of Svensmark and Shaviv (and others) draws on 20th and 21st century knowledge and concepts unknown to Arrhenius et al.
    The attractiveness of AGW theory for many is its implicit limits-to-growth and anti-capitalist message.
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

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    Re: 2019 2nd Hottest Year On Record

    Quote Originally Posted by jpn View Post
    Cosmic ray theory of global warming gets cold response | Cosmos

    Waiting for Gidot. Or the paradigm shift. Whatever.

    Meanwhile, the Earth burns.
    It's Godot.
    That article came out literally within days of the publication of Svensmark et al 2017. It's hard to escape the suspicion that it was drafted before the paper was read, let alone studied.
    Svensmark et al have a follow-up paper due out shortly.
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

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    Re: 2019 2nd Hottest Year On Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    It's Godot.
    That article came out literally within days of the publication of Svensmark et al 2017. It's hard to escape the suspicion that it was drafted before the paper was read, let alone studied.
    Svensmark et al have a follow-up paper due out shortly.
    Thanks for the discussion. You are level-headed and I guess sincere. You posted a number of articles from highly questionable sources, but basing your climate skepticism on the Kuhnian critique of science is novel in my experience and interesting. As I posted earlier, I think the Kuhn critique is highly overdrawn. Kuhn's insights were certainly interesting, as far as they went, and I know The Structure of Scientific Revolutions is one of the most highly cited works in the philosophy of science. It gained a popular following in the 1980s when some social scientists were busy trying to take down the physical sciences in a pique of jealousy (IMHO).

    Basing your denialism on Kuhn is better than mere hackery. Which is about the best thing I've ever been able to say about climate denial.
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    Re: 2019 2nd Hottest Year On Record

    Quote Originally Posted by jpn View Post
    Thanks for the discussion. You are level-headed and I guess sincere. You posted a number of articles from highly questionable sources, but basing your climate skepticism on the Kuhnian critique of science is novel in my experience and interesting. As I posted earlier, I think the Kuhn critique is highly overdrawn. Kuhn's insights were certainly interesting, as far as they went, and I know The Structure of Scientific Revolutions is one of the most highly cited works in the philosophy of science. It gained a popular following in the 1980s when some social scientists were busy trying to take down the physical sciences in a pique of jealousy (IMHO).

    Basing your denialism on Kuhn is better than mere hackery. Which is about the best thing I've ever been able to say about climate denial.
    Thanks, I guess. My new copy of Kuhn is the University of Chicago's 50th anniversary edition. It's a pretty short list of non-fiction works that get a 50th anniversary edition.
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

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    Re: 2019 2nd Hottest Year On Record

    Alterations To GISS Surface Temperatures From 2001 To 2015

    Posted on January 19, 2020 by tonyheller

    In 2001, NASA showed about 0.5C warming from 1880 to 2000.

    By 2015, they had doubled 1880-2000 warming.


    In the process of doing this, they erased the post 1940s cooling, which was blamed for Drouths, floods, blizzards, tornadoes, typhoons and hurricanes.
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

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    Re: 2019 2nd Hottest Year On Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    In 2001, NASA showed about 0.5C warming from 1880 to 2000.
    FYI, all three links in your post went to the same place. Tony Heller, who runs that denier site, dropped my state to testify before a Senate panel two years ago:

    In his testimony, Heller claimed that possibly a dozen members of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration had changed temperature data so that climate scientists would conclude that global warming is more severe than it actually is.

    Seattle Weekly has not been able to identify a reputable source that would confirm such a finding. [UPDATE: During the presentation and in a later blog post refuting aspects of this article, Heller points to comments that a retired NOAA scientist named John Bates made to the Daily Mail as evidence, though his claims have been challenged.]

    What we do know is that, as of Tuesday, the EPA’s website stated that the average Pacific Northwest temperature rose 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit in the 20th century, and predicted that the Northwest’s average temperature will rise 3 to 10 degrees by the end of the 21st century. The EPA’s Web site also notes that climate change will impact the Northwest’s mountain snowmelts, irrigation systems, fish populations, and pests and disease that threatens forests.

    During his testimony, Heller also referred to a year-old accusation that NOAA fudged its temperature data when it made some adjustments for how temperature measuring had changed over the past 150 years.

    As The Guardian newspaper of London reported then, the adjustments were required to account for different types of thermometers being used over that span, as well as variations in the times of day that measurements were taken, as well as the relocation of some thermometers.

    The Guardian cited a peer-reviewed study by the University of York and the University of California at Berkeley that double-checked NOAA’s adjustments, and found that those tweaks were done correctly. In fact, The Guardian reported that NOAA’s tweaks verified that while temperatures have been increasing, they have not been doing so as quickly as originally thought.
    [...]
    In the days prior to his appearance, Heller—an active Twitter user, who also believes Barack Obama was not born in the United States and that the New York Times is “fake news”—tweeted photos of the Puget Sound area’s recent snow as arguments against global warming.
    [...]
    Also on Monday and Tuesday, he tweeted:
    emocrats hate Trump supporters for the same reasons that Nazis hated Jews.
    They are just one more hate cult seeking a scapegoat."
    "It is ridiculous to say Trump doesn't like immigrants. Just like Michelle Obama, he is married to one."
    So he's a crank. Why do you push arguments made by cranks? It just undercuts any legitimacy you may gain with arguments based on difficulties in science to accept radical thinking and sourcing real scientists like Svensmark. I just don't understand your lack of discernment.
    Annoy Russia. Vote Democrat.

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    Re: 2019 2nd Hottest Year On Record

    Quote Originally Posted by jpn View Post
    FYI, all three links in your post went to the same place. Tony Heller, who runs that denier site, dropped my state to testify before a Senate panel two years ago:



    So he's a crank. Why do you push arguments made by cranks? It just undercuts any legitimacy you may gain with arguments based on difficulties in science to accept radical thinking and sourcing real scientists like Svensmark. I just don't understand your lack of discernment.
    I suggest you deal with the data rather than stooping to ad hominem.
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

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