Why Electric Cars Still Don't Live Up to the Hype

Jack Hays · Dec 31, 2019

Cutting through the propaganda.

Why electric cars still don’t live up to the hype

By Charles Lane

". . . Mass adoption of electric cars, however, cannot occur unless they can do everything gas-powered vehicles can do — including the ability to go hundreds of miles before refueling, and refueling easily — at a comparable total cost of ownership. Otherwise, electric cars will be a niche product for upper-income folks. And government subsidies for them will be a regressive transfer of social resources in return for little climate benefit, given that the U.S. power grid the cars draw from is 64 percent fueled by coal and gas.

Nothing happened in the past decade to undermine this basic critique. Government, both federal and state, subsidized electric-car sales and production to the tune of several billion dollars, yet as of March 2019, there were 1.18 million electric vehicles on the road in the United States — less than one-half of 1 percent of the total. Households earning $100,000 or more per year own two-thirds of EVs, with many of the owners benefiting from a $7,500 federal tax credit.

Globally, electric-car adoption is also modest relative to optimistic forecasts. Of the 86 million cars sold in the top 54 world markets in 2018, 1.26 million, or 1.5 percent, were EVs. That’s nowhere near then-Nissan chief executive Carlos Ghosn’s 2010 prognostication that EVs would account for 10 percent of global sales by 2020. . . .

Established automakers are indeed about to ramp up electric offerings, providing Tesla with its most serious competition yet.

They are doing so, however, more as a response to regulatory pressure from governments — even after the Trump administration scaled back fuel-economy standards — than as a response to demonstrated customer demand, which lately has favored gas-powered SUVs and pickups.

The problem, as industry leaders acknowledge in their quieter moments, is still the same: getting the total cost of owning an EV down to that of a gas equivalent. There’s uncertainty about key variables such as how much more battery costs will fall and the global supply of rare-earth elements. . . . "

Renae · Dec 31, 2019

Jack Hays said:
Cutting through the propaganda.

Why electric cars still don’t live up to the hype

By Charles Lane

". . . Mass adoption of electric cars, however, cannot occur unless they can do everything gas-powered vehicles can do — including the ability to go hundreds of miles before refueling, and refueling easily — at a comparable total cost of ownership. Otherwise, electric cars will be a niche product for upper-income folks. And government subsidies for them will be a regressive transfer of social resources in return for little climate benefit, given that the U.S. power grid the cars draw from is 64 percent fueled by coal and gas.

Nothing happened in the past decade to undermine this basic critique. Government, both federal and state, subsidized electric-car sales and production to the tune of several billion dollars, yet as of March 2019, there were 1.18 million electric vehicles on the road in the United States — less than one-half of 1 percent of the total. Households earning $100,000 or more per year own two-thirds of EVs, with many of the owners benefiting from a $7,500 federal tax credit.

Globally, electric-car adoption is also modest relative to optimistic forecasts. Of the 86 million cars sold in the top 54 world markets in 2018, 1.26 million, or 1.5 percent, were EVs. That’s nowhere near then-Nissan chief executive Carlos Ghosn’s 2010 prognostication that EVs would account for 10 percent of global sales by 2020. . . .

Established automakers are indeed about to ramp up electric offerings, providing Tesla with its most serious competition yet.

They are doing so, however, more as a response to regulatory pressure from governments — even after the Trump administration scaled back fuel-economy standards — than as a response to demonstrated customer demand, which lately has favored gas-powered SUVs and pickups.

The problem, as industry leaders acknowledge in their quieter moments, is still the same: getting the total cost of owning an EV down to that of a gas equivalent. There’s uncertainty about key variables such as how much more battery costs will fall and the global supply of rare-earth elements. . . . "

EV's are great, for a certain subset of drivers, but as replacement for the needs of most folks? Not at all.

Lord of Planar · Dec 31, 2019

Jack Hays said:
Cutting through the propaganda.

Why electric cars still don’t live up to the hype

By Charles Lane

". . . Mass adoption of electric cars, however, cannot occur unless they can do everything gas-powered vehicles can do — including the ability to go hundreds of miles before refueling, and refueling easily — at a comparable total cost of ownership. Otherwise, electric cars will be a niche product for upper-income folks. And government subsidies for them will be a regressive transfer of social resources in return for little climate benefit, given that the U.S. power grid the cars draw from is 64 percent fueled by coal and gas.

Nothing happened in the past decade to undermine this basic critique. Government, both federal and state, subsidized electric-car sales and production to the tune of several billion dollars, yet as of March 2019, there were 1.18 million electric vehicles on the road in the United States — less than one-half of 1 percent of the total. Households earning $100,000 or more per year own two-thirds of EVs, with many of the owners benefiting from a $7,500 federal tax credit.

Globally, electric-car adoption is also modest relative to optimistic forecasts. Of the 86 million cars sold in the top 54 world markets in 2018, 1.26 million, or 1.5 percent, were EVs. That’s nowhere near then-Nissan chief executive Carlos Ghosn’s 2010 prognostication that EVs would account for 10 percent of global sales by 2020. . . .

Established automakers are indeed about to ramp up electric offerings, providing Tesla with its most serious competition yet.

They are doing so, however, more as a response to regulatory pressure from governments — even after the Trump administration scaled back fuel-economy standards — than as a response to demonstrated customer demand, which lately has favored gas-powered SUVs and pickups.

The problem, as industry leaders acknowledge in their quieter moments, is still the same: getting the total cost of owning an EV down to that of a gas equivalent. There’s uncertainty about key variables such as how much more battery costs will fall and the global supply of rare-earth elements. . . . "

I would like to know how much the mileage is reduced when you are driving in below freezing temperatures and keeping the insode of the car cozy.

Steve Case · Dec 31, 2019

I've posted several places several times that I'd like to have a small electric to zip around town in.
I still do more than ever. Over the holidays and a California Christmas, I got to drive a rented Tesla
and take a ride from San Jose up to Big Basin state park. Wow! A 60 mile round trip up a winding
mountain road. The car never shifts gears, it's perfectly smooth no down shifting or braking. It
does have brakes and a brake pedal but you don't have to use them. When you take your foot off
the "Gas" pedal, regenerative braking brings you to a nice smooth stop. Charging time is still an issue
for long trips. The acceleration is positively phenomenal - so is the price tag.

Sabre · Dec 31, 2019

Electrics are not for everyone, now, but nothing ever started at the top of it's ability - improvements happen over time. For the record, the very first cars were electric, not gas and now we are coming full circle.

The range is constantly improving, 200 to 300 is available on most EV's. The cost of most is inline with many gas cars. You also have to factor that there are very generous rebates when you by an EV, from several sources. For example: With the rebates I got 35k car down to 24k, selling my older EV brought that down to 19K, but there are more savings that keep on giving. There is 2 years of 30 minutes free charging at a charging station and you can do that a couple of times a day if you want. 30 minutes usually gives me 80 to 90% charge. You also charge at home, the electric company gives you a special rate that is about half of the normal rate and because you are doing it at your house that rate applies to your whole house usage.

Then consider the cost of gas versus electricity, I get an average of 160 miles per charge, if I were to charge entirely at home that would come to and average of $4.80 for a full charge. At current gas prices and mileages on a gas car what would 160 mile of driving cost you? My gasser gets 20 mpg, gas here gas has dropped from $3.89 to $3.09 a gallon (for now) and that would cost me $24.72 - if I were to charge only at home that would be over a $20 savings, but I take full advantage of the free charging offered so it's basically 0, add in the constant savings on the whole house electric and it's sorta paying me.

I suppose there are places where you could only be charging at home, but around most cities there are charging stations everywhere and if you need a charge on the road it's not a problem. I live in California which has 50% of all the nations EV's, so there is charging everywhere, drug stores, big box stores, restaurants, malls, movies theaters etc.

Lord of Planar, using a heater does take some mileage away and I personally would not go where the temp is freezing, you are speaking to the exceptions not the average. Also if you drive an EV you soon learn little things that will give you greater mileage. Yes, going faster uses more just like a gas car uses more gas but I drive freeway speeds with no problem.

Remember, it was only 2003 when Tesla shocked the world into electrics and look where they are now. Once all the scientists agreed that heavier than air flight was impossible, I think they may have been wrong, since 1903 we have gone to the moon and back. Cars will keep evolving, electrics, fuel cells or some totally new source yet to be thought of, who knows.

CaughtInThe · Dec 31, 2019

It's just a matter of time.

Jack Hays · Dec 31, 2019

Sabre said:
Electrics are not for everyone, now, but nothing ever started at the top of it's ability - improvements happen over time. For the record, the very first cars were electric, not gas and now we are coming full circle.

The range is constantly improving, 200 to 300 is available on most EV's. The cost of most is inline with many gas cars. You also have to factor that there are very generous rebates when you by an EV, from several sources. For example: With the rebates I got 35k car down to 24k, selling my older EV brought that down to 19K, but there are more savings that keep on giving. There is 2 years of 30 minutes free charging at a charging station and you can do that a couple of times a day if you want. 30 minutes usually gives me 80 to 90% charge. You also charge at home, the electric company gives you a special rate that is about half of the normal rate and because you are doing it at your house that rate applies to your whole house usage.

Then consider the cost of gas versus electricity, I get an average of 160 miles per charge, if I were to charge entirely at home that would come to and average of $4.80 for a full charge. At current gas prices and mileages on a gas car what would 160 mile of driving cost you? My gasser gets 20 mpg, gas here gas has dropped from $3.89 to $3.09 a gallon (for now) and that would cost me $24.72 - if I were to charge only at home that would be over a $20 savings, but I take full advantage of the free charging offered so it's basically 0, add in the constant savings on the whole house electric and it's sorta paying me.

I suppose there are places where you could only be charging at home, but around most cities there are charging stations everywhere and if you need a charge on the road it's not a problem. I live in California which has 50% of all the nations EV's, so there is charging everywhere, drug stores, big box stores, restaurants, malls, movies theaters etc.

Lord of Planar, using a heater does take some mileage away and I personally would not go where the temp is freezing, you are speaking to the exceptions not the average. Also if you drive an EV you soon learn little things that will give you greater mileage. Yes, going faster uses more just like a gas car uses more gas but I drive freeway speeds with no problem.

Remember, it was only 2003 when Tesla shocked the world into electrics and look where they are now. Once all the scientists agreed that heavier than air flight was impossible, I think they may have been wrong, since 1903 we have gone to the moon and back. Cars will keep evolving, electrics, fuel cells or some totally new source yet to be thought of, who knows.

CaughtInThe said:
It's just a matter of time.

From the OP link:

". . . . A mid-2018 report by JPMorgan Asset Management noted that the median global forecast by industry experts is 125 million EVs on the road worldwide by 2030, which would be less than 10 percent of the total. “I’m taking the ‘under’ rather than the ‘over,’ ” the report’s author, Michael Cembalest, added. . . . "

Sabre · Dec 31, 2019

Jack Hays said:
From the OP link:

". . . . A mid-2018 report by JPMorgan Asset Management noted that the median global forecast by industry experts is 125 million EVs on the road worldwide by 2030, which would be less than 10 percent of the total. “I’m taking the ‘under’ rather than the ‘over,’ ” the report’s author, Michael Cembalest, added. . . . "

That's fine, but I file it under heavier than air flight is impossible. Don't forget, fuel cell cars are still EV's, heck even diesel trains are electric powered. I would hate to try and predict what will be in another decade or so, based on todays knowledge. Seeing as how that report was in 2018 a lot can change in 11 years. We were barely able to launch our first satellite in 1958, 1969 we landed on the moon - a lot can change in 11 years.

beancounter · Dec 31, 2019

Jack Hays said:
Cutting through the propaganda.

Why electric cars still don’t live up to the hype

By Charles Lane

". . . Mass adoption of electric cars, however, cannot occur unless they can do everything gas-powered vehicles can do — including the ability to go hundreds of miles before refueling, and refueling easily — at a comparable total cost of ownership. Otherwise, electric cars will be a niche product for upper-income folks. And government subsidies for them will be a regressive transfer of social resources in return for little climate benefit, given that the U.S. power grid the cars draw from is 64 percent fueled by coal and gas.

Nothing happened in the past decade to undermine this basic critique. Government, both federal and state, subsidized electric-car sales and production to the tune of several billion dollars, yet as of March 2019, there were 1.18 million electric vehicles on the road in the United States — less than one-half of 1 percent of the total. Households earning $100,000 or more per year own two-thirds of EVs, with many of the owners benefiting from a $7,500 federal tax credit.

Globally, electric-car adoption is also modest relative to optimistic forecasts. Of the 86 million cars sold in the top 54 world markets in 2018, 1.26 million, or 1.5 percent, were EVs. That’s nowhere near then-Nissan chief executive Carlos Ghosn’s 2010 prognostication that EVs would account for 10 percent of global sales by 2020. . . .

Established automakers are indeed about to ramp up electric offerings, providing Tesla with its most serious competition yet.

They are doing so, however, more as a response to regulatory pressure from governments — even after the Trump administration scaled back fuel-economy standards — than as a response to demonstrated customer demand, which lately has favored gas-powered SUVs and pickups.

The problem, as industry leaders acknowledge in their quieter moments, is still the same: getting the total cost of owning an EV down to that of a gas equivalent. There’s uncertainty about key variables such as how much more battery costs will fall and the global supply of rare-earth elements. . . . "

Unfortunately, it's a catch 22 issue.

There would be greater demand for electric cars if the infrastructure to support them was widespread..but there won't be widespread infrastructure until there is greater demand for electric cars.

beefheart · Dec 31, 2019

Steve Case said:
I've posted several places several times that I'd like to have a small electric to zip around town in.
I still do more than ever. Over the holidays and a California Christmas, I got to drive a rented Tesla
and take a ride from San Jose up to Big Basin state park. Wow! A 60 mile round trip up a winding
mountain road. The car never shifts gears, it's perfectly smooth no down shifting or braking. It
does have brakes and a brake pedal but you don't have to use them. When you take your foot off
the "Gas" pedal, regenerative braking brings you to a nice smooth stop. Charging time is still an issue
for long trips. The acceleration is positively phenomenal - so is the price tag.

I have a Prius that gets me 60 MPG. I love it. I am looking at the plug in model that does 25 mile electric then does hybrid. It is hilarious to see the anger that electric cars elicit.

Sunsettommy · Dec 31, 2019

beefheart said:
I have a Prius that gets me 60 MPG. I love it. I am looking at the plug in model that does 25 mile electric then does hybrid. It is hilarious to see the anger that electric cars elicit.

My brother loves it too, on his second car now. I have been in both a number of times, a good car.

However the car runs on Gasoline.......

Helix · Dec 31, 2019

beefheart said:
I have a Prius that gets me 60 MPG. I love it. I am looking at the plug in model that does 25 mile electric then does hybrid. It is hilarious to see the anger that electric cars elicit.

denialists certainly do like to whine about electric cars.

Jack Hays · Dec 31, 2019

Helix said:
denialists certainly do like to whine about electric cars.

No one is whining.

PoS · Dec 31, 2019

EV's are just toys for the well off. Even with their massive subsidies they have failed to even get to 2% of the market.

Jack Hays · Jan 1, 2020

Where there's no demand, coercion is the substitute.

[FONT=&quot]

Climate Politics[/FONT]
[h=1]Ireland Fast-Tracks Law Effectively Banning Gas Vehicles Within A Decade. Is The US Next?[/h][FONT=&quot]From The Daily Caller Chris White Tech Reporter December 30, 2019 11:49 AM ET Font Size: Ireland is fast-tracking legislation that will effectively ban all gas-powered vehicles within a decade, leaving customers who are buying cars in January confused about what to do next, local reports show. The country’s Climate Action Minister Richard Bruton plans…
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charliebrown · Jan 1, 2020

Jack Hays said:
Cutting through the propaganda.

Why electric cars still don’t live up to the hype

By Charles Lane

". . . Mass adoption of electric cars, however, cannot occur unless they can do everything gas-powered vehicles can do — including the ability to go hundreds of miles before refueling, and refueling easily — at a comparable total cost of ownership. Otherwise, electric cars will be a niche product for upper-income folks. And government subsidies for them will be a regressive transfer of social resources in return for little climate benefit, given that the U.S. power grid the cars draw from is 64 percent fueled by coal and gas.

Nothing happened in the past decade to undermine this basic critique. Government, both federal and state, subsidized electric-car sales and production to the tune of several billion dollars, yet as of March 2019, there were 1.18 million electric vehicles on the road in the United States — less than one-half of 1 percent of the total. Households earning $100,000 or more per year own two-thirds of EVs, with many of the owners benefiting from a $7,500 federal tax credit.

Globally, electric-car adoption is also modest relative to optimistic forecasts. Of the 86 million cars sold in the top 54 world markets in 2018, 1.26 million, or 1.5 percent, were EVs. That’s nowhere near then-Nissan chief executive Carlos Ghosn’s 2010 prognostication that EVs would account for 10 percent of global sales by 2020. . . .

Established automakers are indeed about to ramp up electric offerings, providing Tesla with its most serious competition yet.

They are doing so, however, more as a response to regulatory pressure from governments — even after the Trump administration scaled back fuel-economy standards — than as a response to demonstrated customer demand, which lately has favored gas-powered SUVs and pickups.

The problem, as industry leaders acknowledge in their quieter moments, is still the same: getting the total cost of owning an EV down to that of a gas equivalent. There’s uncertainty about key variables such as how much more battery costs will fall and the global supply of rare-earth elements. . . . "

Jack, the electric vehicle is going to cover the world because it is now more cost effective to build than a ICE machine.

there is a dynamic for me that is going to be the name changer. When my house heating system and car get converted to electric, then placing solar on my roof will absolutely become a cost effective investment for me. Although I will increase my electric consumption, I will absolutely reduce my gas and grid electric consumption and that will benefit both me and the environment.

jmotivator · Jan 1, 2020

beancounter said:
Unfortunately, it's a catch 22 issue.

There would be greater demand for electric cars if the infrastructure to support them was widespread..but there won't be widespread infrastructure until there is greater demand for electric cars.

Well, yes and no. The issue is that the technology doesn't currently exist to make gasoline-like convenience functional. There are efforts to make battery packs easily swappable, allowing for the existence of stations that can swap batteries in minutes... but those devices and stock piles would need to be portable and fit in the existing gas stations and garages. No easy feat.

All told, I think the one place that the government could have the greatest impact on car travel is in promoting teleworking, beginning with the federal government and its contractors. It wouldn't really help people like me who do their work in air-gapped networks, but the number of people who could work from home far exceeds the number who can't.

Jack Hays · Jan 1, 2020

charliebrown said:
Jack, the electric vehicle is going to cover the world because it is now more cost effective to build than a ICE machine.

there is a dynamic for me that is going to be the name changer. When my house heating system and car get converted to electric, then placing solar on my roof will absolutely become a cost effective investment for me. Although I will increase my electric consumption, I will absolutely reduce my gas and grid electric consumption and that will benefit both me and the environment.

According to the article, excessive cost is the stumbling block.

Lord of Planar · Jan 1, 2020

charliebrown said:
Jack, the electric vehicle is going to cover the world because it is now more cost effective to build than a ICE machine.

there is a dynamic for me that is going to be the name changer. When my house heating system and car get converted to electric, then placing solar on my roof will absolutely become a cost effective investment for me. Although I will increase my electric consumption, I will absolutely reduce my gas and grid electric consumption and that will benefit both me and the environment.

As long as the infrastructure is there to support such a thing. The logistics are a nightmare.

charliebrown · Jan 1, 2020

Jack Hays said:
According to the article, excessive cost is the stumbling block.

GM electric car push could mean fewer and lower paying jobs

we will see what happens. I am betting the TCO for a car will go down with electric.

PS, I personally think automobiles is a horrible method of transportation for a working society.

PoS · Jan 1, 2020

Lord of Planar said:
As long as the infrastructure is there to support such a thing. The logistics are a nightmare.

Electric cars are the dot coms of the auto world- they have no market share. Tesla has never posted an annual profit in all the years of its existence and EV car sales in the US actually went down in 2019. The whole thing is smoke and mirrors.

Jack Hays · Jan 1, 2020

charliebrown said:
GM electric car push could mean fewer and lower paying jobs

we will see what happens. I am betting the TCO for a car will go down with electric.

PS, I personally think automobiles is a horrible method of transportation for a working society.

I love the individual freedom enabled by the automobile.

charliebrown · Jan 1, 2020

Jack Hays said:
I love the individual freedom enabled by the automobile.

As do I, although, our society is planned around the car as our major mode of transportation. I have lived in areas where cars are not needed as much and I did enjoy that freedom as well.

Walking to a train or bus station, sitting down and reading while traveling is such a joy. Especially when I zoom past all of those free wheeling citizens sitting in traffic.

LetsGoBrandon · Jan 1, 2020

Jack Hays said:
Cutting through the propaganda.

Why electric cars still don’t live up to the hype

By Charles Lane

". . . Mass adoption of electric cars, however, cannot occur unless they can do everything gas-powered vehicles can do — including the ability to go hundreds of miles before refueling, and refueling easily — at a comparable total cost of ownership. Otherwise, electric cars will be a niche product for upper-income folks. And government subsidies for them will be a regressive transfer of social resources in return for little climate benefit, given that the U.S. power grid the cars draw from is 64 percent fueled by coal and gas.

Nothing happened in the past decade to undermine this basic critique. Government, both federal and state, subsidized electric-car sales and production to the tune of several billion dollars, yet as of March 2019, there were 1.18 million electric vehicles on the road in the United States — less than one-half of 1 percent of the total. Households earning $100,000 or more per year own two-thirds of EVs, with many of the owners benefiting from a $7,500 federal tax credit.

Globally, electric-car adoption is also modest relative to optimistic forecasts. Of the 86 million cars sold in the top 54 world markets in 2018, 1.26 million, or 1.5 percent, were EVs. That’s nowhere near then-Nissan chief executive Carlos Ghosn’s 2010 prognostication that EVs would account for 10 percent of global sales by 2020. . . .

Established automakers are indeed about to ramp up electric offerings, providing Tesla with its most serious competition yet.

They are doing so, however, more as a response to regulatory pressure from governments — even after the Trump administration scaled back fuel-economy standards — than as a response to demonstrated customer demand, which lately has favored gas-powered SUVs and pickups.

The problem, as industry leaders acknowledge in their quieter moments, is still the same: getting the total cost of owning an EV down to that of a gas equivalent. There’s uncertainty about key variables such as how much more battery costs will fall and the global supply of rare-earth elements. . . . "

Cost is not the only issue. Technology is just not yet there to make electric cards a viable replacement for gasoline powered vehicles. In my opinion, the eventual answer is hydrogen powered cars.

PoS · Jan 1, 2020

Another Tesla crash that killed a couple being investigated by the Feds:

Fatal Tesla crash near L.A. being investigated by NHTSA - Los Angeles Times

Two people died and two others were injured when a Tesla exited a freeway, ran a red light and slammed into a Honda Civic in Gardena, an NBC News affiliate in Los Angeles reported on Sunday, citing law enforcement. A NHTSA spokesman confirmed the agency was investigating the crash.

The inquiry, a crash scene and vehicle inspection, is the latest by the NHTSA’s Special Crash Investigations unit involving a Tesla vehicle. It has begun 13 probes into Tesla vehicle crashes believed to involve the use of the company’s automated driver-assist features marketed as Autopilot.

A NHTSA spokesman declined to comment on whether Autopilot was a factor in the Sunday crash.

The NHTSA earlier in December said investigators would look into a Connecticut crash in which a Tesla rear-ended a parked police cruiser while the vehicle was operating on Autopilot.

Why Electric Cars Still Don't Live Up to the Hype

Jack Hays

Traveler

Renae

Lord of Planar

Steve Case

Sabre

CaughtInThe

Jack Hays

Traveler

Sabre

beancounter

beefheart

Ice Cream for Crow?

Sunsettommy

Helix

Jack Hays

Traveler

PoS

Minister of Love

Jack Hays

Traveler

charliebrown

jmotivator

Computer Gaming Nerd

Jack Hays

Traveler

Lord of Planar

charliebrown

PoS

Minister of Love

Jack Hays

Traveler

charliebrown

LetsGoBrandon

PoS

Minister of Love