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Thread: Numerous Climate Models Got It Right

  1. #11
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    Re: Numerous Climate Models Got It Right

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    Your own words:

    Scientists: here is our model. IF nothing changes, our prediction is X, but if something changes, here is the model to compute the result.

    40-year-later: something changed, observation is Y.

    Case closed.
    Reading comprehension problem? Are you that confused or trying to confuse others?

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    Re: Numerous Climate Models Got It Right

    Quote Originally Posted by Slavister View Post
    Reading comprehension problem? Are you that confused or trying to confuse others?
    You inadvertently made my point, and you haven't even begun to address Dr. Nakamura.
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

  3. #13
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    Re: Numerous Climate Models Got It Right

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    You inadvertently made my point, and you haven't even begun to address Dr. Nakamura.
    What point? My posts are consistent. You are trying to grasp at straws as if I misstated something.

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    Re: Numerous Climate Models Got It Right

    Quote Originally Posted by Slavister View Post
    What point? My posts are consistent. You are trying to grasp at straws as if I misstated something.
    You have already conceded and you don't even know it. Tsk tsk. If the observation doesn't match the model's prediction then the model failed.
    And you're in support of a post-and-run OP.
    Dr. Nakamura is still waiting.
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

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    Re: Numerous Climate Models Got It Right

    When scientists can predict when and where hurricanes will hit next season then I'll start paying more attention. Until then it's all conjecture among the highly paid climate elites. They like to scare people with predictions.

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    Re: Numerous Climate Models Got It Right

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    A recent study checked the performance of 17 different climate models that were developed between 1970 and 2007.

    Surprise! 14 of the 17 were spot on, nearly identical to observations. One of the misses was low, by about 0.15C; one was off by 0.1C; two were off by 0.05C. Not too shabby.

    Oh, and we should note: These were actual climate models, developed by actual climate scientists. Unlike the usual nonsense hawked by the deniers, these were not journalists, or biologists predicting a Malthusian nightmare resulting from population growth.



    The paper:
    Error - Cookies Turned Off


    Axios summary:
    Climate models got it right on projected temperature changes - Axios
    Yep that is cool and about right with what i read before there were about 13-14 that got it right, however before you jump up and down that is only a 2% success rate since there are about 400 models.
    which means that 386 models got it wrong.

    that is what we call piss poor modeling.
    facts don't care about your feelings.

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    Re: Numerous Climate Models Got It Right

    Quote Originally Posted by lemmiwinx View Post
    When scientists can predict when and where hurricanes will hit next season then I'll start paying more attention. Until then it's all conjecture among the highly paid climate elites.
    sigh

    Climate ≠ Weather

    Hurricanes are notoriously difficult to predict, even when in progress. We have gotten significantly better at predicting hurricane paths once they start. Predicting a hurricane's path months before it forms will never happen.

    That has nothing whatsoever with climate predictions. Even though we can't predict specific hurricane paths, we can predict what time of year that hurricanes happen; we have accurately predict that hurricanes are getting stronger, move slower, and produce more precipitation.

    Along those lines: We can't predict the date of a specific temperature or rainstorm 3 months in advance. However, there is no serious difficulty in estimating likely temperatures and precipitation amounts 3 months in advance.

    And again! The point of the article is that the models climate scientists are using to make temperature predictions are accurate. The models incorporate all sorts of assumptions about climate, including the effects of CO2 emissions, CH4 emissions, solar changes, feedback effects and more -- and they are getting it right. Thus, they are worth listening to.
    "Everyone should listen to me all the time about everything." - Rosa Diaz

    "When the mistakes fall disproportionately on one side, it is no respect for the notion of truth to pretend that everything is even." - Lee McIntyre

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    Re: Numerous Climate Models Got It Right

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    sigh

    Climate ≠ Weather

    Hurricanes are notoriously difficult to predict, even when in progress. We have gotten significantly better at predicting hurricane paths once they start. Predicting a hurricane's path months before it forms will never happen.

    That has nothing whatsoever with climate predictions. Even though we can't predict specific hurricane paths, we can predict what time of year that hurricanes happen; we have accurately predict that hurricanes are getting stronger, move slower, and produce more precipitation.

    Along those lines: We can't predict the date of a specific temperature or rainstorm 3 months in advance. However, there is no serious difficulty in estimating likely temperatures and precipitation amounts 3 months in advance.

    And again! The point of the article is that the models climate scientists are using to make temperature predictions are accurate. The models incorporate all sorts of assumptions about climate, including the effects of CO2 emissions, CH4 emissions, solar changes, feedback effects and more -- and they are getting it right. Thus, they are worth listening to.
    Climate may not equal weather as you put it but neither should it determine what kind of car I drive or house I live in. I hate climate Nazis if I can call them them that without being reported. Seems you can call any conservative a Nazi on here and get away with it.

  9. #19
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    Re: Numerous Climate Models Got It Right

    For those interested, the referenced paper: Error - Cookies Turned Off

    I see nothing remarkable or compelling about a sampling of models with broad prediction ranges that (more or less) accurately predict the continuation of a trend known to be in existence for well over a hundred years. YMMV.

  10. #20
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    Re: Numerous Climate Models Got It Right

    This should end any confusion.

    CMIP5 Model Atmospheric Warming 1979-2018: Some Comparisons to Observations

    December 12th, 2019I keep getting asked about our charts comparing the CMIP5 models to observations, old versions of which are still circulating, so it could be I have not been proactive enough at providing updates to those. Since I presented some charts at the Heartland conference in D.C. in July summarizing the latest results we had as of that time, I thought I would reproduce those here.
    The following comparisons are for the lower tropospheric (LT) temperature product, with separate results for global and tropical (20N-20S). I also provide trend ranking “bar plots” so you can get a better idea of how the warming trends all quantitatively compare to one another (and since it is the trends that, arguably, matter the most when discussing “global warming”).
    From what I understand, the new CMIP6 models are exhibiting even more warming than the CMIP5 models, so it sounds like when we have sufficient model comparisons to produce CMIP6 plots, the discrepancies seen below will be increasing.
    Global Comparisons
    First is the plot of global LT anomaly time series, where I have averaged 4 reanalysis datasets together, but kept the RSS and UAH versions of the satellite-only datasets separate. (Click on images to get full-resolution versions).
    The ranking of the trends in that figure shows that only the Russian model has a lower trend than UAH, with the average of the 4 reanalysis datasets not far behind. I categorically deny any Russian involvement in the resulting agreement between the UAH trend and the Russian model trend, no matter what dossier might come to light. . . .
    "Above all, not too much zeal." --Prince Talleyrand

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