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Thread: CO2 saturation and climate sensitivity

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    CO2 saturation and climate sensitivity

    I went looking for the earliest source of Earth being 33°C warmer than it would
    be if the atmosphere were transparent. It looks like Arrhenius first mentioned
    the Earth average temperature was 15 °C in 1896.
    Along the way I found that Knut Ångström had challenged Arrhenius's findings of climate sensitivity,in 1900,
    saying that CO2 has a greenhouse effect at lower levels, but quickly becomes saturated.
    Ångström's findings in turned were challenged by the alarmist blog real climate.
    A Saturated Gassy Argument << RealClimate
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...gument-part-ii
    Where this gets interesting, is if we evaluate what data we can extract from the realclimate graph.

    While they did not link to any numerical data, the graph roughly says that at 1XCO2
    between .661 and .664% of the of the transmission passes.
    For 2XCO2 between .636 and .639% of the light transmitted passes.
    The greenhouse warming of 33°C is based on an energy imbalance of 150 Wm-2,
    of this 150 Wm-2 up to 26%, or 39 Wm-2 is attributed to CO2.
    If we convert the above percentages to changes in energy imbalance,
    we see that doubling the CO2 level, will add an imbalance of between
    .86 and 1.1 Wm-2. This amount from an alarmist blog site is much lower
    than the predicted amount of forcing of 3.71 Wm-2.

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    Re: CO2 saturation and climate sensitivity

    Recent CO2 Climate Sensitivity Estimates Continue Trending Towards Zero

    By Kenneth Richard on 16. October 2017
    Updated: The Shrinking CO2 Climate Sensitivity A recently highlighted paper published by atmospheric scientists Scafetta et al., (2017) featured a graph (above) documenting post-2000 trends in the published estimates of the Earth’s climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 concentrations (from 280 parts per million to 560 ppm). The trajectory for the published estimates of transient climate response […]
    "Waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be one." --Marcus Aurelius

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    Re: CO2 saturation and climate sensitivity

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    I went looking for the earliest source of Earth being 33°C warmer than it would
    be if the atmosphere were transparent. It looks like Arrhenius first mentioned
    the Earth average temperature was 15 °C in 1896.
    Along the way I found that Knut Ångström had challenged Arrhenius's findings of climate sensitivity,in 1900,
    saying that CO2 has a greenhouse effect at lower levels, but quickly becomes saturated.
    Ångström's findings in turned were challenged by the alarmist blog real climate.
    A Saturated Gassy Argument << RealClimate
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...gument-part-ii
    Where this gets interesting, is if we evaluate what data we can extract from the realclimate graph.

    While they did not link to any numerical data, the graph roughly says that at 1XCO2
    between .661 and .664% of the of the transmission passes.
    For 2XCO2 between .636 and .639% of the light transmitted passes.
    The greenhouse warming of 33°C is based on an energy imbalance of 150 Wm-2,
    of this 150 Wm-2 up to 26%, or 39 Wm-2 is attributed to CO2.
    If we convert the above percentages to changes in energy imbalance,
    we see that doubling the CO2 level, will add an imbalance of between
    .86 and 1.1 Wm-2. This amount from an alarmist blog site is much lower
    than the predicted amount of forcing of 3.71 Wm-2.
    We already know that graph confuses the alarmists. I had to flip it upside down once and compare it to graph vs. CO2 levels.
    The left says the right is full of racists and bigots and have no tolerance. Nobody from the right organizes interference with gay pride parades, or other leftist events. The left however always has a group interfering with events organized by the right. Who are the tolerant ones I ask? Most certainly not the left.

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    Re: CO2 saturation and climate sensitivity

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord of Planar View Post
    We already know that graph confuses the alarmists. I had to flip it upside down once and compare it to graph vs. CO2 levels.
    To be fair I have no idea what it is all about.

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    Re: CO2 saturation and climate sensitivity

    Quote Originally Posted by Tim the plumber View Post
    To be fair I have no idea what it is all about.
    The Blog run by people like Gavin Schmidt, and Michael Mann, attempted to discredit work done by Knut Ångström in 1900,
    which found that CO2 was already saturated at the wavelengths in question.
    What they showed was the graph that while CO2 was not 100% saturated, each additional unit added quite a bit less
    energy imbalance than the current prediction.
    This is likely why they did not include numbers for the graphed data.
    The graph ends at 100 meters, but the lower atmosphere is considered to be 10,000 meters, so almost no photons in the
    range 13.5 and 17 microns being discussed make it out of the atmosphere, even at lower CO2 levels.
    Adding CO2 cannot cause 120% to not make it out of the atmosphere, as there is only 100% to work with.

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    Re: CO2 saturation and climate sensitivity

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    The Blog run by people like Gavin Schmidt, and Michael Mann, attempted to discredit work done by Knut Ångström in 1900,
    which found that CO2 was already saturated at the wavelengths in question.
    What they showed was the graph that while CO2 was not 100% saturated, each additional unit added quite a bit less
    energy imbalance than the current prediction.
    This is likely why they did not include numbers for the graphed data.
    The graph ends at 100 meters, but the lower atmosphere is considered to be 10,000 meters, so almost no photons in the
    range 13.5 and 17 microns being discussed make it out of the atmosphere, even at lower CO2 levels.
    Adding CO2 cannot cause 120% to not make it out of the atmosphere, as there is only 100% to work with.
    OK. Got that. Well more or less.

    Do you have any empiriacl evidence for it? Can or could you run an experiment to show it?

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    Re: CO2 saturation and climate sensitivity

    Quote Originally Posted by Tim the plumber View Post
    OK. Got that. Well more or less.

    Do you have any empiriacl evidence for it? Can or could you run an experiment to show it?
    I have not found that the experiment has been tried since 1900 when Knut Ångström's assistant did an actual test.
    The recent test was with the HITRAN spectroscopic archive, which is very good.
    I suspect that no one wants to kill the goose that lays golden eggs.

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    Re: CO2 saturation and climate sensitivity

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    I have not found that the experiment has been tried since 1900 when Knut Ångström's assistant did an actual test.
    The recent test was with the HITRAN spectroscopic archive, which is very good.
    I suspect that no one wants to kill the goose that lays golden eggs.
    I wonder if it would be very easy to do these days with CO2 lasers and light sensors you can get off amazon?

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    Re: CO2 saturation and climate sensitivity

    Quote Originally Posted by Tim the plumber View Post
    I wonder if it would be very easy to do these days with CO2 lasers and light sensors you can get off amazon?
    I do not think it would be that easy, CO2 lasers are too short a wavelength (9.6 and 10.6 um).
    on a cold clear day, a 20C source which was mentioned in the blog, might work with a detector some distance away,
    but getting the reference measurement would be difficult. Regular (visible light) optics do not work well at these wavelengths.
    They use salt lenses, but the fog quickly outside.
    I suppose a 3 meter length of pipe that various gas mixtures could be introduced, with the source and the detector inside the pipe might work.
    get a reading at a rough vacuum level, and then flow in a mixture with CO2 at 280 ppm, and then at 560 ppm, and see how the number of photons
    reaching the detector changes. No one would believe such a test, unless it was conducted by a real lab,
    but it might be possible.

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    Re: CO2 saturation and climate sensitivity

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    I do not think it would be that easy, CO2 lasers are too short a wavelength (9.6 and 10.6 um).
    on a cold clear day, a 20C source which was mentioned in the blog, might work with a detector some distance away,
    but getting the reference measurement would be difficult. Regular (visible light) optics do not work well at these wavelengths.
    They use salt lenses, but the fog quickly outside.
    I suppose a 3 meter length of pipe that various gas mixtures could be introduced, with the source and the detector inside the pipe might work.
    get a reading at a rough vacuum level, and then flow in a mixture with CO2 at 280 ppm, and then at 560 ppm, and see how the number of photons
    reaching the detector changes. No one would believe such a test, unless it was conducted by a real lab,
    but it might be possible.
    Sounds like between you and LoP you could manage it and put the video on uTube.

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