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Thread: Study: Strongest hurricanes striking US three times more frequently

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    Re: Study: Strongest hurricanes striking US three times more frequently

    Blogs vs a paper on PNAS.

    Guess which the deniers are gonna go with?
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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    Re: Study: Strongest hurricanes striking US three times more frequently

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    as usual you do not address anything and yet another post with 0 substance.
    ad hominens are not arguments they are fallacies
    so again you conceed so have a nice day.
    I agree with Threegoofs......unless people have conducted the scientific research and conducted due process and testing you cannot deny the fact. If you have conducted the research and can provide data contrary to the findings of the vast majority of scientists today I would be happy to have a look at it.

    The problem is we have all of these keyboard experts who believe they are scientists, politicians, policy makers or the like who make these unsubstantiated claims, statements etc..

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    Re: Study: Strongest hurricanes striking US three times more frequently

    Quote Originally Posted by goldkam View Post
    I agree with Threegoofs......unless people have conducted the scientific research and conducted due process and testing you cannot deny the fact. If you have conducted the research and can provide data contrary to the findings of the vast majority of scientists today I would be happy to have a look at it.

    The problem is we have all of these keyboard experts who believe they are scientists, politicians, policy makers or the like who make these unsubstantiated claims, statements etc..
    This is from the Chairman of the Raccah Center for Physics at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and IBM Einstein Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Study, Professor Nir Shaviv.

    How Climate Change Pseudoscience Became Publicly Accepted

    "Waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be one." --Marcus Aurelius

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    Re: Study: Strongest hurricanes striking US three times more frequently

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    This is from the Chairman of the Raccah Center for Physics at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and IBM Einstein Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Study, Professor Nir Shaviv.

    How Climate Change Pseudoscience Became Publicly Accepted
    Interesting read. However what is even more interesting is the science based on thousands of scientists disproves the line that this individual is going down. That is simplifying their facts, research and data to such simplistic levels it negates its true meaning. Additionally if this guy was that reputable I would not be reading his work on a dodgy blog posting page with not reputability or credibility whatsoever.

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    Re: Study: Strongest hurricanes striking US three times more frequently

    Quote Originally Posted by goldkam View Post
    Interesting read. However what is even more interesting is the science based on thousands of scientists disproves the line that this individual is going down. That is simplifying their facts, research and data to such simplistic levels it negates its true meaning. Additionally if this guy was that reputable I would not be reading his work on a dodgy blog posting page with not reputability or credibility whatsoever.
    The blog is his own. I suggest you peruse its contents.
    Shaviv has published repeatedly in leading journals. His most recent (2017) significant climate work was co-authored with Henrik Svensmark and published in Nature Communications.
    His link to the Institute for Advanced Study is worth highlighting. That is where Albert Einstein worked after coming to the U.S.
    And no, he's not been "disproved."

    Solar Debunking Arguments are Defunct

    Forbes censored an interview with me

    "Waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be one." --Marcus Aurelius

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    Re: Study: Strongest hurricanes striking US three times more frequently

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    This is from the Chairman of the Raccah Center for Physics at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and IBM Einstein Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Study, Professor Nir Shaviv.

    How Climate Change Pseudoscience Became Publicly Accepted
    Ohlookablog
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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    Re: Study: Strongest hurricanes striking US three times more frequently

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    The blog is his own. I suggest you peruse its contents.
    Shaviv has published repeatedly in leading journals. His most recent (2017) significant climate work was co-authored with Henrik Svensmark and published in Nature Communications.
    His link to the Institute for Advanced Study is worth highlighting. That is where Albert Einstein worked after coming to the U.S.
    And no, he's not been "disproved."

    Solar Debunking Arguments are Defunct

    Forbes censored an interview with me
    The fact the blog is his own creates even more bias and concern for me. I still hold true that his claims can be refuted quite easily by more than hundreds upon hundreds of leading climate scientists.

    My concern is in his presentation of facts....
    - He claims solar activity is increasing that is FALSE it has been decreasing since the 1950s (This debunks this notion- https://archive.is/usnF)
    - There are numerous and substantial claims he is involved and being paid by the fossil fuel industry....whether factual or not is concerning until proven not guilty
    - The Heartland Institute of whom Shaviv regularly speaks for and is involved within a Senate inquiry to be directly involved with fossil fuel firms.

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    Re: Study: Strongest hurricanes striking US three times more frequently

    Quote Originally Posted by goldkam View Post
    The fact the blog is his own creates even more bias and concern for me. I still hold true that his claims can be refuted quite easily by more than hundreds upon hundreds of leading climate scientists.

    My concern is in his presentation of facts....
    - He claims solar activity is increasing that is FALSE it has been decreasing since the 1950s (This debunks this notion- https://archive.is/usnF)
    - There are numerous and substantial claims he is involved and being paid by the fossil fuel industry....whether factual or not is concerning until proven not guilty
    - The Heartland Institute of whom Shaviv regularly speaks for and is involved within a Senate inquiry to be directly involved with fossil fuel firms.
    The claim of fossil fuel payments boils down to an honorarium for a speech to the Heartland Institute. It's an absurd stretch to make that into something worrisome.
    As for solar activity, I'm afraid you're in error. Solar activity increased through the 20th century. We'll start with this.

    Carbon Dioxide or Solar Forcing?

    Using historic variations in climate and the cosmic ray flux, one can actually quantify empirically the relation between cosmic ray flux variations and global temperature change, and estimate the solar contribution to the 20th century warming. This contribution comes out to be 0.5±0.2°C out of the observed 0.6±0.2°C global warming (Shaviv, 2005).Fig. 5: Solar activity over the past several centuries can be reconstructed using different proxies. These reconstructions demonstrate that 20th century activity is unparalleled over the past 600 years (previously high solar activity took place around 1000 years ago, and 8000 yrs ago). Specifically, we see sunspots and 10Be. The latter is formed in the atmosphere by ~1GeV cosmic rays, which are modulated by the solar wind (stronger solar wind → less galactic cosmic rays → less 10Be production). Note that both proxies do not capture the decrease in the high energy cosmic rays that took place since the 1970's, but which the ion chamber data does (see fig. 6). (image source: Wikipedia)

    Fig. 6: The flux of cosmic rays reaching Earth, as measured by ion chambers. Red line - annual averages, Blue line - 11 yr moving average. Note that ion chambers are sensitive to particles at relatively high energy (several 10's of GeV, which is higher than the energies responsible for the atmospheric ionization [~10 GeV], and much higher than the energies responsible for the 10Be production [~1 GeV]). Plot redrawn using data from Ahluwalia (1997). Moreover, the decrease in high energy cosmic rays since the 1970's is less pronounced in low energy proxies of solar activity, implying that cosmogenic isotopes (such as 10Be) or direct solar activity proxies (e.g., sun spots, aa index, etc) are less accurate in quantifying the solar → cosmic ray → climate link and its contribution to 20th century global warming.
    "Waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be one." --Marcus Aurelius

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