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[W:103]Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from C. America

Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

Buzz said:
Inject some realism??

:lamo

Now I don't know if you have been following this debate between me and Tim very closely but it looks to me like you haven't.

Tim's challenge is a comparison of costs. Some cost to a town or city due to warming compared to that same municipalities traffic signal costs. And in this particular case, Tim has already divided up this cost of Miami Beach's sea level rise over the next 100 years and compared it to 20 years of all new signals calculated at the maximum cost. So Tim has already moved the goalposts to his extreme advantage... and he still lost the challenge. It was 5 million per year to mitagate the sea level rise compared to 2.1 million per year for all new traffic signals including maintinence costs.

So... for Tim to make a big deal about how long it is going to take the sea levels to get to... whatever number he pulls out of his butt, is him just trying to move the goalposts YET AGAIN!!

So... unless you think it is going to take more than 100 years for sea level to rise 24 inches you are just helping Tim push a lie.
Click to expand...

Liar.

The cost ovber the next 30 years is the cost of the increase in sea defenses required to adjust for the world sea level rise of 100m maximuim or there abouts. This is far less than Miami Beach will be spending over that time on traffic lights.
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

Tim the plumber said:
Liar.

The cost ovber the next 30 years is the cost of the increase in sea defenses required to adjust for the world sea level rise of 100m maximuim or there abouts. This is far less than Miami Beach will be spending over that time on traffic lights.
Click to expand...

100mm. Oops.
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

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Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

longview said:
Still more doom and gloom, Andaman Island may not be habitable, Hum!
A quick look around shows that Andaman Island has quite a bit of it's surface quite a bit above sea level.
F1.large.jpg

The granularity is poor since some of the peaks are above 300 meters, but it looks like quite a bit of the area is about 10 meters in elevation.
But let's assume a 1 meter rise would affect a lot of people.
Scientists may have solved mystery of rapidly rising Indian Ocean sea level - GeoSpace - AGU Blogosphere

So the sea level will reach 1 meter in 1000/3.1= 322 years, at the current rate of rise.
How does this compare to the statement in the cited article,

I am guessing a few years means different things to different people.
Click to expand...

The author of the report is Anjal Prakash.

anjal_prakash.jpg

Here are his credentials ---

Anjal Prakash | PhD in Social\Environmental Science | TERI University, New Delhi | Regional Water Studies

Dr Anjal Prakash is Associate Professor and Associate Dean at the TERI - School of Advanced Studies, Hyderabad. Prior to joining TERI - SAS, he was the Programme Coordinator of HI-AWARE at ICIMOD based in Kathmandu, Nepal. HI-AWARE was a special initiative that focuses on adaptation issues in three river basins of South Asia. In his earlier capacity, he led SaciWATERs, a policy research institute that works in six countries of South Asia. Dr. Prakash is selected as Coordinating Lead Author (CLA) for the upcoming Special Report of IPCC - Oceans and Cryoshpere in a Changing Climate.

Please tell us why you are a better authority.
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

Media_Truth said:
The author of the report is Anjal Prakash.

View attachment 67265311

Here are his credentials ---

Anjal Prakash | PhD in Social\Environmental Science | TERI University, New Delhi | Regional Water Studies

Dr Anjal Prakash is Associate Professor and Associate Dean at the TERI - School of Advanced Studies, Hyderabad. Prior to joining TERI - SAS, he was the Programme Coordinator of HI-AWARE at ICIMOD based in Kathmandu, Nepal. HI-AWARE was a special initiative that focuses on adaptation issues in three river basins of South Asia. In his earlier capacity, he led SaciWATERs, a policy research institute that works in six countries of South Asia. Dr. Prakash is selected as Coordinating Lead Author (CLA) for the upcoming Special Report of IPCC - Oceans and Cryoshpere in a Changing Climate.

Please tell us why you are a better authority.
Click to expand...
A better authority than who? The IPCC lead author, or the author of the article?
The author of the article was clearly using hyperbole when he got the statement,
"Andaman and Nicobar might not be inhabitable in a few years due to rise in sea level and increase in climatic events like cyclones,
said one of the key authors of a global report on climate change on Wednesday."
and then later quotes the actual quote as,
"Islands like Andaman and Nicobar, Maldives etc will have to be vacated. People will have to be
migrated from there as as due to rising sea levels, these places will become uninhabitable," said Anjal Prakash, the coordinating
lead author of the IPCC report.
Click to expand...
Inserting the term "A few years" adds urgency to a statement without a time frame!
Also perhaps Dr Anjal Prakash should have recalled his geography, before he added an island with some much high ground
to a list of islands that will be rendered uninhabitable by sea level rise.
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

longview said:
A better authority than who? The IPCC lead author, or the author of the article?
The author of the article was clearly using hyperbole when he got the statement,
"Andaman and Nicobar might not be inhabitable in a few years due to rise in sea level and increase in climatic events like cyclones,
said one of the key authors of a global report on climate change on Wednesday."
and then later quotes the actual quote as,

Inserting the term "A few years" adds urgency to a statement without a time frame!
Also perhaps Dr Anjal Prakash should have recalled his geography, before he added an island with some much high ground
to a list of islands that will be rendered uninhabitable by sea level rise.
Click to expand...

Are you claiming to be a better authority than either one of them? Please cite your credentials.
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

Media_Truth said:
Are you claiming to be a better authority than either one of them? Please cite your credentials.
Click to expand...
None necessary, the Island mentioned has much of it's area above 10 meters in elevation, the sea level rise will not
make the island uninhabitable for many hundreds of years, if ever.
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

longview said:
None necessary, the Island mentioned has much of it's area above 10 meters in elevation, the sea level rise will not
make the island uninhabitable for many hundreds of years, if ever.
Click to expand...

Dr Prakash may have any one of many reasons for making this claim. Perhaps the upper-elevations aren't conducive to homes and residences. Perhaps the upper-elevations aren't sustainable without the agriculture from the lower elevations. He is an expert. You are not.
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

longview said:
None necessary, the Island mentioned has much of it's area above 10 meters in elevation, the sea level rise will not
make the island uninhabitable for many hundreds of years, if ever.
Click to expand...

It's exactly like I stated earlier. If you go back to Bergie's original link, you will find this from Dr. Prakash.

It said the salinity of water bodies will increase which will have huge impacts on water for irrigation and domestic use.

"The salinity ingress will pollute the freshwater bodies and will have huge impacts on water for irrigation and domestic use. The shifting rainfall patters of Indian monsoon will also have bearing for people living on the coastal areas,"


Andaman, Nicobar Islands may not be inhabitable in future due to rise in sea level: IPCC | India News - Times of India
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

Media_Truth said:
Dr Prakash may have any one of many reasons for making this claim. Perhaps the upper-elevations aren't conducive to homes and residences. Perhaps the upper-elevations aren't sustainable without the agriculture from the lower elevations. He is an expert. You are not.
Click to expand...

That’s....an understatement.
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

Tim the plumber said:
The cost ovber the next 30 years is the cost of the increase in sea defenses required to adjust for the world sea level rise of 100m maximuim or there abouts. This is far less than Miami Beach will be spending over that time on traffic lights.
Click to expand...

So... dividing up the cost of Miami Beach's raising of defenses and roads over 100 years isn't enough to suit your bias. You are going to insist on another goal-post move.

O.k.

If we take your ridiculously low prediction of sea level rise to be 100mm every 30 years that is 3.33mm per year. And since 24 inches is 609.6mm then it will take 183 years for sea levels to go up 24 inches. Now divide that by the cost of the project and we get 2.73 million per year. Still more than the maximum cost of traffic signals of 2.1 million per year.

You still lose your challenge even with two goal-post moves!!
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

Media_Truth said:
It's exactly like I stated earlier. If you go back to Bergie's original link, you will find this from Dr. Prakash.

It said the salinity of water bodies will increase which will have huge impacts on water for irrigation and domestic use.

"The salinity ingress will pollute the freshwater bodies and will have huge impacts on water for irrigation and domestic use. The shifting rainfall patters of Indian monsoon will also have bearing for people living on the coastal areas,"


Andaman, Nicobar Islands may not be inhabitable in future due to rise in sea level: IPCC | India News - Times of India
Click to expand...
The Islands are much like the US virgin islands, mostly rain water.
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

Buzz said:
So... dividing up the cost of Miami Beach's raising of defenses and roads over 100 years isn't enough to suit your bias. You are going to insist on another goal-post move.

O.k.

If we take your ridiculously low prediction of sea level rise to be 100mm every 30 years that is 3.33mm per year. And since 24 inches is 609.6mm then it will take 183 years for sea levels to go up 24 inches. Now divide that by the cost of the project and we get 2.73 million per year. Still more than the maximum cost of traffic signals of 2.1 million per year.

You still lose your challenge even with two goal-post moves!!
Click to expand...

What are you talking about?

Take the cost of the project, divide by 30 to get the cost per year and then divide this by the proportion of it that is due to the rise in global sea level due to global warming.
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

Media_Truth said:
It's exactly like I stated earlier. If you go back to Bergie's original link, you will find this from Dr. Prakash.

It said the salinity of water bodies will increase which will have huge impacts on water for irrigation and domestic use.

"The salinity ingress will pollute the freshwater bodies and will have huge impacts on water for irrigation and domestic use. The shifting rainfall patters of Indian monsoon will also have bearing for people living on the coastal areas,"


Andaman, Nicobar Islands may not be inhabitable in future due to rise in sea level: IPCC | India News - Times of India
Click to expand...

There running out of freshwater is also a problem for many other low lying islands.

"But there are other threats that could come a whole lot sooner. Initial research suggests that as sea levels rise, some islands might run out of freshwater long before they run out of land.

Even now, on most developing islands in the Pacific, freshwater is already an imperilled resource. On many populated atolls, the primary source is rain that's soaked into the soil and collected as groundwater.

Yet as sea levels continue to rise and flooding becomes more frequent, the ground on these islands might also begin to absorb seawater. And if subsequent rainfall doesn't flush all that salt out of the island's aquifer, it will likely become contaminated.

This disaster scenario could deprive entire isolated islands of their sole source of drinking water, forcing residents to rely on rainfall and shipments alone.
"

There's a Climate Threat Facing Pacific Islands That's More Dire Than Losing Land
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

longview said:
The Islands are much like the US virgin islands, mostly rain water.
Click to expand...

You should have started your statement with "I know more than Dr. Prakash".
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

Bergslagstroll said:
There running out of freshwater is also a problem for many other low lying islands.

"But there are other threats that could come a whole lot sooner. Initial research suggests that as sea levels rise, some islands might run out of freshwater long before they run out of land.

Even now, on most developing islands in the Pacific, freshwater is already an imperilled resource. On many populated atolls, the primary source is rain that's soaked into the soil and collected as groundwater.

Yet as sea levels continue to rise and flooding becomes more frequent, the ground on these islands might also begin to absorb seawater. And if subsequent rainfall doesn't flush all that salt out of the island's aquifer, it will likely become contaminated.

This disaster scenario could deprive entire isolated islands of their sole source of drinking water, forcing residents to rely on rainfall and shipments alone.
"

There's a Climate Threat Facing Pacific Islands That's More Dire Than Losing Land
Click to expand...

Also, soil that is contaminated by salination becomes unsuitable for growing.
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

Media_Truth said:
Also, soil that is contaminated by salination becomes unsuitable for growing.
Click to expand...

Inland places are also affected by worsening drought. For example that even the right wing government in Australia have to admit how climate change leads to worsening droughts.

"The drought and water resources minister, David Littleproud, has acknowledged he “totally” accepts that worsening droughts are linked to climate change, as he signalled more taxpayer support for regional communities was coming as Australia’s big dry “escalates”.

Littleproud, who stumbled last month by first telling Guardian Australia he did not know if climate change was manmade, then later clarifying he had always accepted the science on the role humans play in the climate changing, told the ABC on Sunday he understood the link between global warming and drought because “I live it”."

Water resources minister 'totally' accepts drought linked to climate change | Environment | The Guardian
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

jimbo said:
Projected is not a scientific term. It's a guess.
Click to expand...

Kind of like this medicine is projected to have this effect. It might do nothing or it might help
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

The world isn't ready for climate refugees while you also are seeing more and more anti refugee rhetoric and policies. So the tens of millions that will be forces to migrate because of climate change may risk a grime future.

"Rising sea levels, wildfires, drought or a slow-moving hurricane can all threaten your way of life as surely as a bomb. But unlike victims of war for whom the causes and effects of the threats are clear and codified, there are no protections for environmental migrants. That’s despite World Bank estimates that tens of millions of people could be climate refugees by 2050, research showing asylum seeking already increases in response to climate-related issues like rising temperatures, and the fact that researchers have been talking about the plight of people who must escape not-entirely-natural disasters since at least 1988. Technically, in the context of legal and political systems, climate refugees don’t exist. There’s no space for them in international law and no special plans for how to treat them in the United States when they arrive. Here and around the world, fleeing climate change means running to bureaucracies as inhospitable to your survival as the places you left behind."


The World Isn’t Ready For Climate Refugees | FiveThirtyEight
 
Re: Trump admin ignored its own evidence of climate change's impact on migration from Central Americ

Bergslagstroll said:
The world isn't ready for climate refugees while you also are seeing more and more anti refugee rhetoric and policies. So the tens of millions that will be forces to migrate because of climate change may risk a grime future.

"Rising sea levels, wildfires, drought or a slow-moving hurricane can all threaten your way of life as surely as a bomb. But unlike victims of war for whom the causes and effects of the threats are clear and codified, there are no protections for environmental migrants. That’s despite World Bank estimates that tens of millions of people could be climate refugees by 2050, research showing asylum seeking already increases in response to climate-related issues like rising temperatures, and the fact that researchers have been talking about the plight of people who must escape not-entirely-natural disasters since at least 1988. Technically, in the context of legal and political systems, climate refugees don’t exist. There’s no space for them in international law and no special plans for how to treat them in the United States when they arrive. Here and around the world, fleeing climate change means running to bureaucracies as inhospitable to your survival as the places you left behind."


The World Isn’t Ready For Climate Refugees | FiveThirtyEight
Click to expand...

Hand-wringing BS.
 
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