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Thread: No Climate Doomsday Warning Has Come True

  1. #21
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    Re: No Climate Doomsday Warning Has Come True

    Quote Originally Posted by distraff View Post
    One thing you have to consider is that before the 90s, climate science was still in its infancy so predictions before that were very hit or miss. They didn't have the computers, and all the global temperature and historical data we do today. Next, your 1988 prediction doesn't mention anyone in particular. Al Gore and Prince Charles aren't scientists and their predictions don't reflect the scientific community. You also like you point out individual people who make predictions, without looking at what the scientific community as a whole is saying, so you are in danger of cherry picking failed predictions, while ignoring the rest of the scientific community. It would be better to reference past IPCC predictions about today and see if those predictions were completely wrong.
    Actually, many of the predictions from back in the 1960s have proven to be surprisingly prescient. I don’t know what these posters here are talking about when they say none of the predictions have come true. Odd.

    The First Climate Model Turns 50, And Predicted Global Warming Almost Perfectly

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    Re: No Climate Doomsday Warning Has Come True

    Quote Originally Posted by ataraxia View Post
    Actually, many of the predictions from back in the 1960s have proven to be surprisingly prescient. I don’t know what these posters here are talking about when they say none of the predictions have come true. Odd.

    The First Climate Model Turns 50, And Predicted Global Warming Almost Perfectly
    Yes they were fairly accurate, but you have to consider their findings.
    https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs...W%3E2.0.CO%3B2
    According to our estimate, a doubling of the CO2 content in the atmosphere has the effect of
    raising the temperature of the atmosphere (whose relative humidity is fixed) by about 2C.
    An ECS of 2 C is not entirely impossible, but lets check the numbers.
    an ECS of 2 C would mean a multiplier of 2/ln(2)=3.09, so 3.09 X ln( 2018 CO2/1967 CO2), should tell us how much warming we
    should expect for that change in CO2.
    ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/tr...nnmean_mlo.txt
    3.09 X ln(408.52/322.16)=.73 C, the actual observed warming is .87 C (GISS), so the 2 C is plausible,
    but you would have to account for the other variables.

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    Re: No Climate Doomsday Warning Has Come True

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    Yes they were fairly accurate, but you have to consider their findings.
    https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs...W%3E2.0.CO%3B2

    An ECS of 2 C is not entirely impossible, but lets check the numbers.
    an ECS of 2 C would mean a multiplier of 2/ln(2)=3.09, so 3.09 X ln( 2018 CO2/1967 CO2), should tell us how much warming we
    should expect for that change in CO2.
    ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/tr...nnmean_mlo.txt
    3.09 X ln(408.52/322.16)=.73 C, the actual observed warming is .87 C (GISS), so the 2 C is plausible,
    but you would have to account for the other variables.
    The unanimous consensus of every single scientific organization on the entire planet disagrees with you. Sorry.

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    Re: No Climate Doomsday Warning Has Come True

    Quote Originally Posted by ataraxia View Post
    The unanimous consensus of every single scientific organization on the entire planet disagrees with you. Sorry.
    Not really! The consensus is simply that average global temperatures have increased over the last century,
    and that Human activity is likely involved.
    The consensus does not speak to how sensitivity the atmosphere is to added CO2.
    If you want to point out some error you think I made with the math, then please do so!

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    Re: No Climate Doomsday Warning Has Come True

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    Not really! The consensus is simply that average global temperatures have increased over the last century,
    and that Human activity is likely involved.
    The consensus does not speak to how sensitivity the atmosphere is to added CO2.
    If you want to point out some error you think I made with the math, then please do so!
    The consensus is that the uncertainty in risk is high enough that it makes continuing the status quo unacceptable.

    "Earth's changing climate is a critical issue and poses the risk of significant environmental, social and economic disruptions around the globe. While natural sources of climate variability are significant, multiple lines of evidence indicate that human influences have had an increasingly dominant effect on global climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century. Although the magnitudes of future effects are uncertain, human influences on the climate are growing. The potential consequences of climate change are great and the actions taken over the next few decades will determine human influences on the climate for centuries."
    -American Physical Society

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    Re: No Climate Doomsday Warning Has Come True

    Quote Originally Posted by ataraxia View Post
    The consensus is that the uncertainty in risk is high enough that it makes continuing the status quo unacceptable.
    Who said the status quo was acceptable?
    We have some very real problems, that need to be addressed, CO2 is simply not one of them.
    Energy is the real problem, and if we quit fooling around wasting time on CO2, we can address our energy problem,
    and solve any issues with CO2 as a side effect.

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    Re: No Climate Doomsday Warning Has Come True

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    Who said the status quo was acceptable?
    We have some very real problems, that need to be addressed, CO2 is simply not one of them.
    Energy is the real problem, and if we quit fooling around wasting time on CO2, we can address our energy problem,
    and solve any issues with CO2 as a side effect.
    So if we can cut CO2 production by changing energy sources, you would be OK with it?

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    Re: No Climate Doomsday Warning Has Come True

    Quote Originally Posted by ataraxia View Post
    It is the unanimous consensus of every single scientific organization on the entire planet.
    Except that it isn't. In fact, numerous scientists have refuted the IPCC completely bogus claims. Even NASA has accused the IPCC of misusing their data. The InterGOVERNMENTal Panel on Climate Change is a government body whose sole purpose is to push the Marxist redistribution of wealth agenda. It has absolutely nothing to do with science. That is why we are sending hundreds of billions in US taxpayer dollars on Africa, to prevent those nations from developing and becoming productive, as we have. They publish nothing but propaganda.
    Last edited by Glitch; 09-20-19 at 10:17 AM.

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    Re: No Climate Doomsday Warning Has Come True

    Quote Originally Posted by Glitch View Post
    Except that it isn't. In fact, numerous scientists have refuted the IPCC completely bogus claims.
    Numerous "scientists" also have "refuted" basic evolutionary biology. Just read about Behe and the Discovery Institute. Doesn't make evolutionary biology unscientific. There are always kooks and charlatans around.

    Even NASA has accused the IPCC of misusing their data.
    "Even" NASA believes in climate change.

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    Re: No Climate Doomsday Warning Has Come True

    Quote Originally Posted by ataraxia View Post
    "Even" NASA believes in climate change.
    I've got some incredibly shocking news for you: Everyone on the planet believes the climate changes.

    Try some more of your tired pathetic lies, that one obviously isn't going to cut it.

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