Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 26

Thread: Stories of Heat waves and the contribution of global warming

  1. #1
    Sage
    longview's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Texas
    Last Seen
    Today @ 05:03 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    20,615

    Stories of Heat waves and the contribution of global warming

    It seems that not a week goes by that someone does not post a story about this or that high temperature record.
    "Northern India heat wave tops 50 degrees centigrate (122 degrees f)" ect.
    But if we actually consider what the possible contribution of the global recorded temperature increase to those
    records, we would see that it does not even show up.
    Globally the average temperatures (Hadcrut4) have increased by .9 C since the pre 1900 average.
    But that is not the entire story!
    The observed warming was in average temperatures, and the majority of the increase was in the minimum temperatures.
    Error - Cookies Turned Off
    Here, we review the observed diurnal asymmetry in the global warming trend:
    the night‐time temperatures have increased more rapidly than day‐time temperatures.
    The minimum temperatures increased at a rate 3 times faster than the maximum temperatures.
    1951–2000; Globe −0.14 0.07 0.21
    If the ratio is the same, as the 1950 to 2000 average, then of the .9 C of observed warming,
    then only .225 C of the warming would be applied to the maximum temperatures.
    So if we say that some region has a heat wave that has highs 8 C above the average for that period,
    then 7.775 C of that heat wave is natural, and only .225C would be from recorded increases in the global record.
    Wow almost 3%!

  2. #2
    Sage
    Bucky's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2015
    Location
    Washington
    Last Seen
    Today @ 12:28 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    15,109
    Blog Entries
    19

    Re: Stories of Heat waves and the contribution of global warming

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    It seems that not a week goes by that someone does not post a story about this or that high temperature record.
    "Northern India heat wave tops 50 degrees centigrate (122 degrees f)" ect.
    But if we actually consider what the possible contribution of the global recorded temperature increase to those
    records, we would see that it does not even show up.
    Globally the average temperatures (Hadcrut4) have increased by .9 C since the pre 1900 average.
    But that is not the entire story!
    The observed warming was in average temperatures, and the majority of the increase was in the minimum temperatures.
    Error - Cookies Turned Off

    The minimum temperatures increased at a rate 3 times faster than the maximum temperatures.

    If the ratio is the same, as the 1950 to 2000 average, then of the .9 C of observed warming,
    then only .225 C of the warming would be applied to the maximum temperatures.
    So if we say that some region has a heat wave that has highs 8 C above the average for that period,
    then 7.775 C of that heat wave is natural, and only .225C would be from recorded increases in the global record.
    Wow almost 3%!
    Actually, this is a good thing. As the Summer gets warmer, ice will thaw and collapse. Archeologists and scientists will discover more ancient species buried in the ice. Imagine if we discover a snake-like mammal or new species of human?

    Also, global climate change will make the Arctic more accessible for mineral and oil exploration. This will be a great boon to the global economy. The pros far outweigh the cons.
    Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one. Albert Einstein

  3. #3
    Sage
    longview's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Texas
    Last Seen
    Today @ 05:03 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    20,615

    Re: Stories of Heat waves and the contribution of global warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Bucky View Post
    Actually, this is a good thing. As the Summer gets warmer, ice will thaw and collapse. Archeologists and scientists will discover more ancient species buried in the ice. Imagine if we discover a snake-like mammal or new species of human?

    Also, global climate change will make the Arctic more accessible for mineral and oil exploration. This will be a great boon to the global economy. The pros far outweigh the cons.
    Sarcasm aside, the point is that the summers are not really getting warmer, summer evenings slightly,
    but most of the warming is in the winter evenings.
    Davy Figure 1
    Davy_fig_1.jpg

  4. #4
    Sage
    Lord of Planar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    Portlandia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 12:40 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian - Right
    Posts
    31,386

    Re: Stories of Heat waves and the contribution of global warming

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    It seems that not a week goes by that someone does not post a story about this or that high temperature record.
    "Northern India heat wave tops 50 degrees centigrate (122 degrees f)" ect.
    But if we actually consider what the possible contribution of the global recorded temperature increase to those
    records, we would see that it does not even show up.
    Globally the average temperatures (Hadcrut4) have increased by .9 C since the pre 1900 average.
    But that is not the entire story!
    The observed warming was in average temperatures, and the majority of the increase was in the minimum temperatures.
    Error - Cookies Turned Off

    The minimum temperatures increased at a rate 3 times faster than the maximum temperatures.

    If the ratio is the same, as the 1950 to 2000 average, then of the .9 C of observed warming,
    then only .225 C of the warming would be applied to the maximum temperatures.
    So if we say that some region has a heat wave that has highs 8 C above the average for that period,
    then 7.775 C of that heat wave is natural, and only .225C would be from recorded increases in the global record.
    Wow almost 3%!
    In another thread, I pointed out that the Wikipedia entry was altered to fit the agenda regarding India.


  5. #5
    Educator
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Last Seen
    Today @ 07:18 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Other
    Posts
    779

    Re: Stories of Heat waves and the contribution of global warming

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    It seems that not a week goes by that someone does not post a story about this or that high temperature record.
    "Northern India heat wave tops 50 degrees centigrate (122 degrees f)" ect.
    But if we actually consider what the possible contribution of the global recorded temperature increase to those
    records, we would see that it does not even show up.
    Globally the average temperatures (Hadcrut4) have increased by .9 C since the pre 1900 average.
    But that is not the entire story!
    The observed warming was in average temperatures, and the majority of the increase was in the minimum temperatures.
    Error - Cookies Turned Off

    The minimum temperatures increased at a rate 3 times faster than the maximum temperatures.

    If the ratio is the same, as the 1950 to 2000 average, then of the .9 C of observed warming,
    then only .225 C of the warming would be applied to the maximum temperatures.
    So if we say that some region has a heat wave that has highs 8 C above the average for that period,
    then 7.775 C of that heat wave is natural, and only .225C would be from recorded increases in the global record.
    Wow almost 3%!
    I think this may be the most misleading and unscientific thing I have ever seen you say.

    Your 3 times figure isn't actually a conclusion of the study you linked to. It is cherry-picked from a much older study that disagrees with all the other studies and more recent data.

    Then to use these numbers in the way you are is just ridiculous and completely unscientific.

    Truly pathetic.

  6. #6
    Educator Frigidweirdo's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2019
    Last Seen
    Today @ 09:38 AM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    737

    Re: Stories of Heat waves and the contribution of global warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Bucky View Post
    Actually, this is a good thing. As the Summer gets warmer, ice will thaw and collapse. Archeologists and scientists will discover more ancient species buried in the ice. Imagine if we discover a snake-like mammal or new species of human?

    Also, global climate change will make the Arctic more accessible for mineral and oil exploration. This will be a great boon to the global economy. The pros far outweigh the cons.
    Not really.

    Desertification - Wikipedia

    Deserts will probably grow.

    Which means that you have more land available in the arctic and antarctic regions, but less land that is already inhabited. This leads to migration. Migration leads to friction which can cause wars.
    Only interested in serious debate.

  7. #7
    Traveler

    Jack Hays's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Williamsburg, Virginia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 06:51 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    74,745
    Blog Entries
    3

    Re: Stories of Heat waves and the contribution of global warming

    The propaganda of AGW advocates.

    Extremes

    Posted on June 13, 2019 by curryja
    by Judith Curry Politics versus science in attributing extreme weather events to manmade global warming.

    Conclusions
    So where does all this leave us in the climate debate? There is very little in the way of extreme weather events that can convincingly be attributed to manmade global warming, even if you are assuming that all of the recent warming is manmade.
    Global warming activists will continue use extreme events as an argument against fossil fuels, even though there is little to no evidence to support this. Without this argument, there is very little left to worry about in the near term regarding AGW, apart from the slow creep of sea level rise.
    The shenanigans of activists and politicians in this regard are not surprising. What is horrifying is the way that schoolchildren are being used (and arguably harmed) in the interests of supporting the activists’ propaganda.
    And finally, the silence of scientists who should know better, especially among those who have a vocal public presence (e.g. media interviews, twitter) is very disturbing. Although who among them would want to suffer the hassles and osctracism suffered by RPJr, myself and others.
    The ‘establishment’ community of climate scientist activists has much to answer for. But insatiable media market for ‘fake news’ regarding extreme weather events assures them of a path of continued professional success for spouting alarmism regarding extreme weather events.






    "It's always reassuring to find you've made the right enemies." -- William J. Donovan

  8. #8
    Sage
    Media_Truth's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 02:14 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    8,549

    Re: Stories of Heat waves and the contribution of global warming

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    It seems that not a week goes by that someone does not post a story about this or that high temperature record.
    "Northern India heat wave tops 50 degrees centigrate (122 degrees f)" ect.
    But if we actually consider what the possible contribution of the global recorded temperature increase to those
    records, we would see that it does not even show up.
    Globally the average temperatures (Hadcrut4) have increased by .9 C since the pre 1900 average.
    But that is not the entire story!
    The observed warming was in average temperatures, and the majority of the increase was in the minimum temperatures.
    Error - Cookies Turned Off

    The minimum temperatures increased at a rate 3 times faster than the maximum temperatures.

    If the ratio is the same, as the 1950 to 2000 average, then of the .9 C of observed warming,
    then only .225 C of the warming would be applied to the maximum temperatures.
    So if we say that some region has a heat wave that has highs 8 C above the average for that period,
    then 7.775 C of that heat wave is natural, and only .225C would be from recorded increases in the global record.
    Wow almost 3%!
    That India Heat Wave that was reported about 3 weeks ago. Guess what? It's still happening...

    2019 Heat Wave Set to Be Longest on Record; Respite Likely in Days Ahead | The Weather Channel

    Temperature records have been broken in various places this summer. While Delhi recorded the hottest June day ever recorded on June 10, many parts Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Madhya Prades were among the hottest places on earth during May and June.
    ...
    Heat-related illnesses and deaths have also been increasing around the country. Recently, four senior citizens touring Uttar Pradesh died on the Kerala Express, apparently due to heatwave conditions. At least 36 people have reportedly been killed by excess heat across India this year.

  9. #9
    Minister of Love
    PoS's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Oceania
    Last Seen
    Today @ 04:07 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian
    Posts
    17,264

    Re: Stories of Heat waves and the contribution of global warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Media_Truth View Post
    That India Heat Wave that was reported about 3 weeks ago. Guess what? It's still happening...

    2019 Heat Wave Set to Be Longest on Record; Respite Likely in Days Ahead | The Weather Channel

    Temperature records have been broken in various places this summer. While Delhi recorded the hottest June day ever recorded on June 10, many parts Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Madhya Prades were among the hottest places on earth during May and June.
    ...
    Heat-related illnesses and deaths have also been increasing around the country. Recently, four senior citizens touring Uttar Pradesh died on the Kerala Express, apparently due to heatwave conditions. At least 36 people have reportedly been killed by excess heat across India this year.
    So? Cold weather kills more people than heat waves do.

  10. #10
    Professor
    Steve Case's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    USA - Milwaukee, WI
    Last Seen
    Today @ 02:07 PM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    1,308

    Re: Stories of Heat waves and the contribution of global warming

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    It seems that not a week goes by that someone does not post a story about this or that high temperature record.
    "Northern India heat wave tops 50 degrees centigrate (122 degrees f)" ect.
    But if we actually consider what the possible contribution of the global recorded temperature increase to those
    records, we would see that it does not even show up.
    Globally the average temperatures (Hadcrut4) have increased by .9 C since the pre 1900 average.
    But that is not the entire story!
    The observed warming was in average temperatures, and the majority of the increase was in the minimum temperatures.
    Error - Cookies Turned Off

    The minimum temperatures increased at a rate 3 times faster than the maximum temperatures.

    If the ratio is the same, as the 1950 to 2000 average, then of the .9 C of observed warming,
    then only .225 C of the warming would be applied to the maximum temperatures.
    So if we say that some region has a heat wave that has highs 8 C above the average for that period,
    then 7.775 C of that heat wave is natural, and only .225C would be from recorded increases in the global record.
    Wow almost 3%!
    From the IPCC:

    Temperature Extremes

    It is very likely that heat waves will be more intense, more
    frequent and longer lasting in a future warmer climate. Cold
    episodes are projected to decrease significantly in a future warmer
    climate. Almost everywhere, daily minimum temperatures are
    projected to increase faster than daily maximum temperatures,
    leading to a decrease in diurnal temperature range. Decreases
    in frost days are projected to occur almost everywhere in
    the middle and high latitudes, with a comparable increase in
    growing season length.

    IPCC AR4 Chapter Ten Executive Summary page 750

    In case you missed it, they said:

    ...daily minimum temperatures are projected to increase faster than daily
    maximum temperatures, leading to a decrease in diurnal temperature range.

    So this shouldn't come as any surprise, and those members of the climate lobby
    who think that the notion that most increases occur in the minimum temperatures,
    is something that needs to be debunked, need to realize that they are at odds
    with their own bible.
    “Facts don’t cease to exist because they are ignored.”— Aldous Huxley

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •