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Stories of Heat waves and the contribution of global warming

longview

longview

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It seems that not a week goes by that someone does not post a story about this or that high temperature record.
"Northern India heat wave tops 50 degrees centigrate (122 degrees f)" ect.
But if we actually consider what the possible contribution of the global recorded temperature increase to those
records, we would see that it does not even show up.
Globally the average temperatures (Hadcrut4) have increased by .9 C since the pre 1900 average.
But that is not the entire story!
The observed warming was in average temperatures, and the majority of the increase was in the minimum temperatures.
Error - Cookies Turned Off
Here, we review the observed diurnal asymmetry in the global warming trend:
the night‐time temperatures have increased more rapidly than day‐time temperatures.
Click to expand...
The minimum temperatures increased at a rate 3 times faster than the maximum temperatures.
1951–2000; Globe −0.14 0.07 0.21
Click to expand...
If the ratio is the same, as the 1950 to 2000 average, then of the .9 C of observed warming,
then only .225 C of the warming would be applied to the maximum temperatures.
So if we say that some region has a heat wave that has highs 8 C above the average for that period,
then 7.775 C of that heat wave is natural, and only .225C would be from recorded increases in the global record.
Wow almost 3%!
 
longview said:
It seems that not a week goes by that someone does not post a story about this or that high temperature record.
"Northern India heat wave tops 50 degrees centigrate (122 degrees f)" ect.
But if we actually consider what the possible contribution of the global recorded temperature increase to those
records, we would see that it does not even show up.
Globally the average temperatures (Hadcrut4) have increased by .9 C since the pre 1900 average.
But that is not the entire story!
The observed warming was in average temperatures, and the majority of the increase was in the minimum temperatures.
Error - Cookies Turned Off

The minimum temperatures increased at a rate 3 times faster than the maximum temperatures.

If the ratio is the same, as the 1950 to 2000 average, then of the .9 C of observed warming,
then only .225 C of the warming would be applied to the maximum temperatures.
So if we say that some region has a heat wave that has highs 8 C above the average for that period,
then 7.775 C of that heat wave is natural, and only .225C would be from recorded increases in the global record.
Wow almost 3%!
Click to expand...

Actually, this is a good thing. As the Summer gets warmer, ice will thaw and collapse. Archeologists and scientists will discover more ancient species buried in the ice. Imagine if we discover a snake-like mammal or new species of human?

Also, global climate change will make the Arctic more accessible for mineral and oil exploration. This will be a great boon to the global economy. The pros far outweigh the cons.
 
Bucky said:
Actually, this is a good thing. As the Summer gets warmer, ice will thaw and collapse. Archeologists and scientists will discover more ancient species buried in the ice. Imagine if we discover a snake-like mammal or new species of human?

Also, global climate change will make the Arctic more accessible for mineral and oil exploration. This will be a great boon to the global economy. The pros far outweigh the cons.
Click to expand...
Sarcasm aside, the point is that the summers are not really getting warmer, summer evenings slightly,
but most of the warming is in the winter evenings.
Davy Figure 1
Davy_fig_1.jpg
 
longview said:
It seems that not a week goes by that someone does not post a story about this or that high temperature record.
"Northern India heat wave tops 50 degrees centigrate (122 degrees f)" ect.
But if we actually consider what the possible contribution of the global recorded temperature increase to those
records, we would see that it does not even show up.
Globally the average temperatures (Hadcrut4) have increased by .9 C since the pre 1900 average.
But that is not the entire story!
The observed warming was in average temperatures, and the majority of the increase was in the minimum temperatures.
Error - Cookies Turned Off

The minimum temperatures increased at a rate 3 times faster than the maximum temperatures.

If the ratio is the same, as the 1950 to 2000 average, then of the .9 C of observed warming,
then only .225 C of the warming would be applied to the maximum temperatures.
So if we say that some region has a heat wave that has highs 8 C above the average for that period,
then 7.775 C of that heat wave is natural, and only .225C would be from recorded increases in the global record.
Wow almost 3%!
Click to expand...

In another thread, I pointed out that the Wikipedia entry was altered to fit the agenda regarding India.

TBMSezT.png
 
longview said:
It seems that not a week goes by that someone does not post a story about this or that high temperature record.
"Northern India heat wave tops 50 degrees centigrate (122 degrees f)" ect.
But if we actually consider what the possible contribution of the global recorded temperature increase to those
records, we would see that it does not even show up.
Globally the average temperatures (Hadcrut4) have increased by .9 C since the pre 1900 average.
But that is not the entire story!
The observed warming was in average temperatures, and the majority of the increase was in the minimum temperatures.
Error - Cookies Turned Off

The minimum temperatures increased at a rate 3 times faster than the maximum temperatures.

If the ratio is the same, as the 1950 to 2000 average, then of the .9 C of observed warming,
then only .225 C of the warming would be applied to the maximum temperatures.
So if we say that some region has a heat wave that has highs 8 C above the average for that period,
then 7.775 C of that heat wave is natural, and only .225C would be from recorded increases in the global record.
Wow almost 3%!
Click to expand...

I think this may be the most misleading and unscientific thing I have ever seen you say.

Your 3 times figure isn't actually a conclusion of the study you linked to. It is cherry-picked from a much older study that disagrees with all the other studies and more recent data.

Then to use these numbers in the way you are is just ridiculous and completely unscientific.

Truly pathetic.
 
Bucky said:
Actually, this is a good thing. As the Summer gets warmer, ice will thaw and collapse. Archeologists and scientists will discover more ancient species buried in the ice. Imagine if we discover a snake-like mammal or new species of human?

Also, global climate change will make the Arctic more accessible for mineral and oil exploration. This will be a great boon to the global economy. The pros far outweigh the cons.
Click to expand...

Not really.

Desertification - Wikipedia

Deserts will probably grow.

Which means that you have more land available in the arctic and antarctic regions, but less land that is already inhabited. This leads to migration. Migration leads to friction which can cause wars.
 
The propaganda of AGW advocates.

Extremes

Posted on June 13, 2019 by curryja
by Judith Curry Politics versus science in attributing extreme weather events to manmade global warming.

Conclusions
So where does all this leave us in the climate debate? There is very little in the way of extreme weather events that can convincingly be attributed to manmade global warming, even if you are assuming that all of the recent warming is manmade.
Global warming activists will continue use extreme events as an argument against fossil fuels, even though there is little to no evidence to support this. Without this argument, there is very little left to worry about in the near term regarding AGW, apart from the slow creep of sea level rise.
The shenanigans of activists and politicians in this regard are not surprising. What is horrifying is the way that schoolchildren are being used (and arguably harmed) in the interests of supporting the activists’ propaganda.
And finally, the silence of scientists who should know better, especially among those who have a vocal public presence (e.g. media interviews, twitter) is very disturbing. Although who among them would want to suffer the hassles and osctracism suffered by RPJr, myself and others.
The ‘establishment’ community of climate scientist activists has much to answer for. But insatiable media market for ‘fake news’ regarding extreme weather events assures them of a path of continued professional success for spouting alarmism regarding extreme weather events.






 
longview said:
It seems that not a week goes by that someone does not post a story about this or that high temperature record.
"Northern India heat wave tops 50 degrees centigrate (122 degrees f)" ect.
But if we actually consider what the possible contribution of the global recorded temperature increase to those
records, we would see that it does not even show up.
Globally the average temperatures (Hadcrut4) have increased by .9 C since the pre 1900 average.
But that is not the entire story!
The observed warming was in average temperatures, and the majority of the increase was in the minimum temperatures.
Error - Cookies Turned Off

The minimum temperatures increased at a rate 3 times faster than the maximum temperatures.

If the ratio is the same, as the 1950 to 2000 average, then of the .9 C of observed warming,
then only .225 C of the warming would be applied to the maximum temperatures.
So if we say that some region has a heat wave that has highs 8 C above the average for that period,
then 7.775 C of that heat wave is natural, and only .225C would be from recorded increases in the global record.
Wow almost 3%!
Click to expand...

That India Heat Wave that was reported about 3 weeks ago. Guess what? It's still happening...

2019 Heat Wave Set to Be Longest on Record; Respite Likely in Days Ahead | The Weather Channel

Temperature records have been broken in various places this summer. While Delhi recorded the hottest June day ever recorded on June 10, many parts Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Madhya Prades were among the hottest places on earth during May and June.
...
Heat-related illnesses and deaths have also been increasing around the country. Recently, four senior citizens touring Uttar Pradesh died on the Kerala Express, apparently due to heatwave conditions. At least 36 people have reportedly been killed by excess heat across India this year.
 
Media_Truth said:
That India Heat Wave that was reported about 3 weeks ago. Guess what? It's still happening...

2019 Heat Wave Set to Be Longest on Record; Respite Likely in Days Ahead | The Weather Channel

Temperature records have been broken in various places this summer. While Delhi recorded the hottest June day ever recorded on June 10, many parts Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Madhya Prades were among the hottest places on earth during May and June.
...
Heat-related illnesses and deaths have also been increasing around the country. Recently, four senior citizens touring Uttar Pradesh died on the Kerala Express, apparently due to heatwave conditions. At least 36 people have reportedly been killed by excess heat across India this year.
Click to expand...

So? Cold weather kills more people than heat waves do.
 
longview said:
It seems that not a week goes by that someone does not post a story about this or that high temperature record.
"Northern India heat wave tops 50 degrees centigrate (122 degrees f)" ect.
But if we actually consider what the possible contribution of the global recorded temperature increase to those
records, we would see that it does not even show up.
Globally the average temperatures (Hadcrut4) have increased by .9 C since the pre 1900 average.
But that is not the entire story!
The observed warming was in average temperatures, and the majority of the increase was in the minimum temperatures.
Error - Cookies Turned Off

The minimum temperatures increased at a rate 3 times faster than the maximum temperatures.

If the ratio is the same, as the 1950 to 2000 average, then of the .9 C of observed warming,
then only .225 C of the warming would be applied to the maximum temperatures.
So if we say that some region has a heat wave that has highs 8 C above the average for that period,
then 7.775 C of that heat wave is natural, and only .225C would be from recorded increases in the global record.
Wow almost 3%!
Click to expand...

From the IPCC:

Temperature Extremes

It is very likely that heat waves will be more intense, more
frequent and longer lasting in a future warmer climate. Cold
episodes are projected to decrease significantly in a future warmer
climate. Almost everywhere, daily minimum temperatures are
projected to increase faster than daily maximum temperatures,
leading to a decrease in diurnal temperature range. Decreases
in frost days are projected to occur almost everywhere in
the middle and high latitudes, with a comparable increase in
growing season length.

IPCC AR4 Chapter Ten Executive Summary page 750
​

In case you missed it, they said:

...daily minimum temperatures are projected to increase faster than daily
maximum temperatures, leading to a decrease in diurnal temperature range.
​

So this shouldn't come as any surprise, and those members of the climate lobby
who think that the notion that most increases occur in the minimum temperatures,
is something that needs to be debunked, need to realize that they are at odds
with their own bible.
 
longview said:
It seems that not a week goes by that someone does not post a story about this or that high temperature record.
...
Click to expand...

Heat waves and high temperatures. Hmmmm here are some graphics from The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA):

high-low-temps-download1-2016.png


high-low-temps-figure4-2016.png


The one looks a lot like that graph I like to put up that our friends on the left don't like:

10er3ps.gif
 
Buzz said:
I think this may be the most misleading and unscientific thing I have ever seen you say.

Your 3 times figure isn't actually a conclusion of the study you linked to. It is cherry-picked from a much older study that disagrees with all the other studies and more recent data.

Then to use these numbers in the way you are is just ridiculous and completely unscientific.

Truly pathetic.
Click to expand...

Well then, cite a more recent study that shows otherwise,
BTW, if the 3:1 ratio existed for the entire 20th century, 18 years of the 21 century would not change that ratio much.
 
Media_Truth said:
That India Heat Wave that was reported about 3 weeks ago. Guess what? It's still happening...

2019 Heat Wave Set to Be Longest on Record; Respite Likely in Days Ahead | The Weather Channel

Temperature records have been broken in various places this summer. While Delhi recorded the hottest June day ever recorded on June 10, many parts Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Madhya Prades were among the hottest places on earth during May and June.
...
Heat-related illnesses and deaths have also been increasing around the country. Recently, four senior citizens touring Uttar Pradesh died on the Kerala Express, apparently due to heatwave conditions. At least 36 people have reportedly been killed by excess heat across India this year.
Click to expand...
Hot weather happens! but it is weather. any location on the planet can and will break a record at some point, it is simply the right combinations of events.
 
Lord of Planar said:
That would mean Global warming is good!
Click to expand...

Not all of it is bad, according to Freeman Dyson. Higher crop yields- since plants grow faster in high CO2 environments, and to be able to farm in previously unfarmable areas like Greenland and Canada is an advantage.
 
longview said:
It seems that not a week goes by that someone does not post a story about this or that high temperature record.
"Northern India heat wave tops 50 degrees centigrate (122 degrees f)" ect.
But if we actually consider what the possible contribution of the global recorded temperature increase to those
records, we would see that it does not even show up.
Globally the average temperatures (Hadcrut4) have increased by .9 C since the pre 1900 average.
But that is not the entire story!
The observed warming was in average temperatures, and the majority of the increase was in the minimum temperatures.
Error - Cookies Turned Off

The minimum temperatures increased at a rate 3 times faster than the maximum temperatures.

If the ratio is the same, as the 1950 to 2000 average, then of the .9 C of observed warming,
then only .225 C of the warming would be applied to the maximum temperatures.
So if we say that some region has a heat wave that has highs 8 C above the average for that period,
then 7.775 C of that heat wave is natural, and only .225C would be from recorded increases in the global record.
Wow almost 3%!
Click to expand...

Troublemaker.
 
Media_Truth said:
That India Heat Wave that was reported about 3 weeks ago. Guess what? It's still happening...

2019 Heat Wave Set to Be Longest on Record; Respite Likely in Days Ahead | The Weather Channel

Temperature records have been broken in various places this summer. While Delhi recorded the hottest June day ever recorded on June 10, many parts Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Madhya Prades were among the hottest places on earth during May and June.
...
Heat-related illnesses and deaths have also been increasing around the country. Recently, four senior citizens touring Uttar Pradesh died on the Kerala Express, apparently due to heatwave conditions. At least 36 people have reportedly been killed by excess heat across India this year.
Click to expand...

And more NFL games were played before 6PM EDT 6/15/19 than at any time since. Respite likely by the Fall.
 
longview said:
Well then, cite a more recent study that shows otherwise,
Click to expand...

That's easy because you have done it already. Remember the graph you posted from Davy 2016?

longview said:
Davy Figure 1
View attachment 67258027
Click to expand...

That is the results of the Davy study and none of the numbers show anything close to a 3 times ratio. And I have pointed out this exact same fact out to you in the past.

And your 3 times number was cherry-picked from several studies listed in table 1 of the Davy study. And ALL the other(and newer) studies show significantly less difference than the oldest one you constantly talk about.

longview said:
BTW, if the 3:1 ratio existed for the entire 20th century, 18 years of the 21 century would not change that ratio much.
Click to expand...

Wrong. None of the studies listed show a 3:1 ratio for the entire century. Even the one you cherry-picked only covers 1951 to 2000.

Why in the hell can't you EVER cite this study without getting your facts wrong? And why do people like me have to point this out to you over and over and over again?
 
Buzz said:
That's easy because you have done it already. Remember the graph you posted from Davy 2016?



That is the results of the Davy study and none of the numbers show anything close to a 3 times ratio. And I have pointed out this exact same fact out to you in the past.

And your 3 times number was cherry-picked from several studies listed in table 1 of the Davy study. And ALL the other(and newer) studies show significantly less difference than the oldest one you constantly talk about.



Wrong. None of the studies listed show a 3:1 ratio for the entire century. Even the one you cherry-picked only covers 1951 to 2000.

Why in the hell can't you EVER cite this study without getting your facts wrong? And why do people like me have to point this out to you over and over and over again?
Click to expand...
Wow you must think you are on to something.
Here is a statement from Davy et al 2016,
T
here has been a more rapid increase in the globally averaged diurnal minimum temperature
(Tmin) than the diurnal maximum temperature (Tmax) in the last 50 years leading to a decrease in the DTR (Figure 1).
Click to expand...
Or Karl, 1993
Monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures for over 50% (10%) of the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere landmass, accounting for 37% of the global landmass, indicate that the rise of the minimum temperature has occurred at a rate three times that of the maximum temperature during the period 1951–90 (0.84°C versus 0.28°C).
Click to expand...
or https://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf
Arrhenius, 1896,
A great deal has been written on the influence of the absorption of the
atmosphere upon the climate.
Tyndail in particular has pointed out the enormous importance of this question.
To him it was chiefly the diurnal and annual variations of the temperature that were
lessoned by the circumstance.
Click to expand...
No The asymmetry has been around and observed for over a century, while the ratio appear is only documented
since the 1950's that is also the period that CO2 has become more active.
 
longview said:
Hot weather happens! but it is weather. any location on the planet can and will break a record at some point, it is simply the right combinations of events.
Click to expand...

It's very simple.

1. Hot weather happens in Asia.
2. Climate change has increased average temperatures in Asia.
3. Hot weather in Asia becomes even hotter.
 
Media_Truth said:
It's very simple.

1. Hot weather happens in Asia.
2. Climate change has increased average temperatures in Asia.
3. Hot weather in Asia becomes even hotter.
Click to expand...
Likely nothing to do with climate change, simply a persistent high, combined with long cloud free summer days.
Keep in mind, that the highs from climate change would only be like .3 C above the background!
 
longview said:
Wow you must think you are on to something.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I am... and it is you and your constant misinformation and lies!

longview said:
Here is a statement from Davy et al 2016,
Click to expand...

So what? It doesn't say anything about a 3 times ratio. It shows a max diurnal asymmetry of something like 50% if I remember correctly.

longview said:
Or Karl, 1993
Click to expand...

Yes... the study I pointed out to you a year and a half ago and how it wasn't the best to base all your arguments on.

longview said:
or https://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf
Arrhenius, 1896,
Click to expand...

And Arrhenius, 1896... The study that quotes Tyndall but then says, as far as I know, nothing else about diurnal asymmetry. At least I can't find anything and you can't cite anything.

longview said:
No The asymmetry has been around and observed for over a century, while the ratio appear is only documented
since the 1950's that is also the period that CO2 has become more active.
Click to expand...

So... you were still wrong about it being a 3:1 ratio for the whole century.

You have been shown to be wrong about so many of the things you are saying here so many times that I... literally don't know what to think anymore. Take for instance your 3 times ratio for diurnal asymmetry. It has been shown to you NUMEROUS TIMES that this number is from just one very old and out-dated study. All the other studies that are newer, more complete and based on better data say that it isn't that extreme. But you refuse to use the preponderance of evidence and insist on cherry-picking your data!

It is dishonest and you need to quit doing it!!

But screw all this! What really drives me nuts is what you said in the beginning of this thread:

longview said:
If the ratio is the same, as the 1950 to 2000 average, then of the .9 C of observed warming,
then only .225 C of the warming would be applied to the maximum temperatures.
So if we say that some region has a heat wave that has highs 8 C above the average for that period,
then 7.775 C of that heat wave is natural, and only .225C would be from recorded increases in the global record.
Wow almost 3%!
Click to expand...

This is just totally screwed up and completely misleading and not based on any kind scientific method.

Or maybe you can provide some peer-reviewed studies to back up such a significant conclusion.
 
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