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Thread: How Did Climate Predictions of 10-40 Years Ago Pan Out? Spectacularly Wrong.

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    Re: How Did Climate Predictions of 10-40 Years Ago Pan Out? Spectacularly Wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz View Post
    Yes, many assume it is for the TOA... like you who has called it TOA numerous times.



    So what? This study is 22 years old and is by no means the final word on what the radiative forcings actually are.



    Now, this would make a legitimate argument if we were talking about the flux at the TOA for the planet at equilibrium... but we are not. Sorry long, but there is no law that says the flux at the TOA has to be the same as at the surface. Even Hansen's study shows I am correct otherwise the numbers at the TOA would be the same as the surface.



    The quote is directly from the Hansen study you cited in post #790.

    Let me break it down and explain it a bit better for you. Here is the first part:



    So... Yes, these numbers are for comparison as long as you define the choice and level of forcing. But you are paying absolutely no attention to either of these factors. You are mixing both different kinds of forcing as well as atmospheric levels as if they directly comparable when they are not.

    And the second part:



    And this part makes it clear that even if you keep the comparisons to be between comparable forcings at the same atmospheric level there will still be differences between studies that would prevent legitimate comparison.

    Now, why do you insist on ignoring these facts? The fact of the matter is that your repeated assertions that these comparisons you make prove or disprove anything is just wrong. It is literally a distortion of logic and science that you use to mislead people.



    No, they shouldn't. At least you haven't made any legitimate and convincing arguments to say they should.
    You misunderstand what you own quoted section says,
    "We anticipate that investigators will continue to use different choices for the radiative forcing (instantaneous or adjusted) and the level at which it is calculated. Thus we provide values for alternative choices, which may aid comparisons among different investigators provided that they define their choice of forcing and atmospheric level. "
    Hansen basically came up with his level of forcing, and at which level of the atmosphere the forcing imbalance would manifest itself.
    Tell me your opinion, When you read that doubling CO2 levels will cause an imbalance of 3.71 Wm-2,
    where in the atmosphere, do you think that imbalance will be observed?

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    Re: How Did Climate Predictions of 10-40 Years Ago Pan Out? Spectacularly Wrong.

    Do you find it odd that all these news groups suddenly think the satellite temperature records are just fine,
    when they report warming? GISS, Hadcrut4, and I think BEST, have not reported June 2019 yet,
    so the record breaking June, must be coming from ether UAH, or RSS.

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    Re: How Did Climate Predictions of 10-40 Years Ago Pan Out? Spectacularly Wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    Do you find it odd that all these news groups suddenly think the satellite temperature records are just fine,
    when they report warming? GISS, Hadcrut4, and I think BEST, have not reported June 2019 yet,
    so the record breaking June, must be coming from ether UAH, or RSS.
    Notice that warmists now follow WEATHER events to maintain their delusions, while ignoring the long running Per Decade warming trend prediction/projections FAILURES from 1990 onwards. Negligible warming since 1998, well below the per decade warming rate, projected by the IPCC.

    hadcrut1998.jpg

    LINK


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    How Did Climate Predictions of 10-40 Years Ago Pan Out? Spectacularly Wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sunsettommy View Post
    Notice that warmists now follow WEATHER events to maintain their delusions, while ignoring the long running Per Decade warming trend prediction/projections FAILURES from 1990 onwards. Negligible warming since 1998, well below the per decade warming rate, projected by the IPCC.

    hadcrut1998.jpg

    LINK

    Denier classic. Start in 1998 like that represents some kind of normal year.

    Let’s look at the dataset for the last three decades:

    [IMG]

    Or, better yet, in true denier fashion, let’s look at these temps- truly a skyrocket!

    Last edited by Threegoofs; 07-08-19 at 09:48 AM.
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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    Re: How Did Climate Predictions of 10-40 Years Ago Pan Out? Spectacularly Wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    Denier classic. Start in 1998 like that represents some kind of normal year.

    Let’s look at the dataset for the last three decades:

    [IMG]

    Or, better yet, in true denier fashion, let’s look at these temps- truly a skyrocket!



    Your first chart actually supports my argument, since the per decade rate is also well below the minimum predicted/projected per decade rate of .20C You chart shows about a .13C per decade rate.

    Your second chart ends in 2016, which is only 8 years long...…………..

    Thank you for your support.

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    Re: How Did Climate Predictions of 10-40 Years Ago Pan Out? Spectacularly Wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sunsettommy View Post


    Your first chart actually supports my argument, since the per decade rate is also well below the minimum predicted/projected per decade rate of .20C You chart shows about a .13C per decade rate.

    Your second chart ends in 2016, which is only 8 years long...…………..

    Thank you for your support.
    Not sure how you get that .2 degrees/decade is the ‘minimum’ projected. Oh, I know. You produced it from your derrière.

    Here’s a nice graphic showing the correlations and ranges- the observations are from 2011 or so, so you can expect them to be a bit higher today.

    As usual, when non-deniers and real scientists examine the data, it seems to be pretty accurate in terms of projections. That is why it hasn’t changed dramatically every time they issue a new IPCC report.

    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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    Re: How Did Climate Predictions of 10-40 Years Ago Pan Out? Spectacularly Wrong.


    ‘Radical’ historian Blainey challenges climate-change orthodoxy

    From the Sydney Morning Herald By Tony Wright July 5, 2019 — 11.11am Australia’s best-known historian, Professor Geoffrey Blainey, has challenged the idea that the current level of climate change is either unique or largely the result of human behaviour. While agreeing the Earth was experiencing a warming period which had been under way for…
    "If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period." --Michael Crichton

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    Re: How Did Climate Predictions of 10-40 Years Ago Pan Out? Spectacularly Wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    Not sure how you get that .2 degrees/decade is the ‘minimum’ projected. Oh, I know. You produced it from your derrière.

    Here’s a nice graphic showing the correlations and ranges- the observations are from 2011 or so, so you can expect them to be a bit higher today.

    As usual, when non-deniers and real scientists examine the data, it seems to be pretty accurate in terms of projections. That is why it hasn’t changed dramatically every time they issue a new IPCC report.

    An IPCC statement you forgot:

    Based on current model results, we predict:
    under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions of greenhouse gases, a rate of increase of global-mean temperature during the next century of about 0.3°C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2°C to 0.5°C per decade); this is greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years. This will result in a likely increase in global-mean temperature of about 1°C above the present value by 2025 and 3°C before the end of the next century.
    bolding mine

    LINK

    Snicker...……………...

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    Re: How Did Climate Predictions of 10-40 Years Ago Pan Out? Spectacularly Wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    Do you find it odd that all these news groups suddenly think the satellite temperature records are just fine,
    when they report warming? GISS, Hadcrut4, and I think BEST, have not reported June 2019 yet,
    so the record breaking June, must be coming from ether UAH, or RSS.
    deleted text
    Last edited by Gina; 07-08-19 at 09:27 PM.

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    Re: How Did Climate Predictions of 10-40 Years Ago Pan Out? Spectacularly Wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sunsettommy View Post
    Notice that warmists now follow WEATHER events to maintain their delusions, while ignoring the long running Per Decade warming trend prediction/projections FAILURES from 1990 onwards. Negligible warming since 1998, well below the per decade warming rate, projected by the IPCC.

    hadcrut1998.jpg

    LINK

    New survey of climate scientists by Bray and von Storch confirms broad consensus on human causation | My view on climate change

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