Sorry Alarmists. There Is No Climate Chaos

[LowDown]

Climate isn't the same as weather -- unless, of course, weather happens to be politically useful. In that case, weather portends climate apocalypse.

So warns Elizabeth Warren as she surveyed Iowan rainstorms, which she claims, like tornadoes and floods, are more frequent and severe. "Different parts of the country deal with different climate issues," Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-Malthusia, cautioned as she too warned of extreme tornadoes. "But ALL of these threats will be increasing in intensity as climate crisis grows and we fail to act appropriately."

Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., recently sent a fundraising email warning Democrats that climate change was causing "growing mega-fires, extremely destructive hurricanes, and horrific flooding" which put "American lives are at stake."

But this is all wrong. There is no evidence that the weather is increasingly dangerous to human lives. Despite the cataclysmic framing of every weather event, we're safer than we've ever been.

Deaths from extreme weather have dropped by 99.9% since 1920, when people would die from a cold snap or a heat wave.

We've seen a "spike" in tornadoes this year, but that's only slightly above average. Last year the US saw no strong tornadoes at all. Deaths from tornadoes were lowest ever.



There has been a long term decline in the cost of tornado damage.

After a few devastating hurricanes a decade ago it was predicted that we'd see ever stronger and more numerous such storms. There followed 9 years with no major hurricanes in the US.

US National Hazard data shows a 30 year low in deaths from extreme weather.

There has, if anything, been a long term decline in hurricanes and tornadoes. There is no evidence of any recent significant increase.

Government climate scientists have no proven ability to predict the frequency of hurricanes and tornadoes.





Sorry, Democrats, There Is No Climate Chaos

 

[MrWonka]

Deaths from extreme weather have dropped by 99.9% since 1920, when people would die from a cold snap or a heat wave.

Umm...that's because if advancements in technology, infrastructure and medicine. It says nothing about whether storms are becoming more severe.

There has been a long term decline in the cost of tornado damage.

Because we build better houses

After a few devastating hurricanes a decade ago it was predicted that we'd see ever stronger and more numerous such storms. There followed 9 years with no major hurricanes in the US.

Maybe you should tell the people of Puerto Rico that.

US National Hazard data shows a 30 year low in deaths from extreme weather.

Again, improvements in infrastructure and advance prediction of storms has improved. That says nothing about the frequency or strength of storms.

There has, if anything, been a long term decline in hurricanes and tornadoes.

Please show us this data that we all know you don't have. Your own graph shows a higher than normal number of tornado's this year and the data only goes back two decades.

 

[Rogue Valley]

There Is No Climate Chaos

Yes, there is.

/thread

 

[MrWonka]

There has, if anything, been a long term decline in hurricanes and tornadoes. There is no evidence of any recent significant increase.

ATLANTIC HURRICANE NUMBERS BY YEAR

From 1851 to 1999 there were only 6 times where the number of Named Tropical storms in the U.S. hit 15 or higher in a single year.

Since 2000 that has happened in 12 out of the last 17 years.

The average number of Major Hurricanes in the Atlantic averages 2 per year. Since 2000 there has only been one year where there was fewer than 2 with 10 years that had more than 2.

The average number of Hurricanes in the Atlantic is 6.5 per year. Since 2000 we've had 11 years with 7 or more hurricanes and only 5 with fewer than 6.

So... yeah you're very wrong.

 

[PoS]

There Is No Climate Chaos

Yes, there is.

/thread

Prove there is an increasing amount of bad weather caused by AGW.

 

[bubbabgone]

There Is No Climate Chaos

Yes, there is.

/thread

Of course there is.
Climate is chaos.
Unpredictable.
Not subject to control.

 

[Jack Hays]

Umm...that's because if advancements in technology, infrastructure and medicine. It says nothing about whether storms are becoming more severe.


Because we build better houses


Maybe you should tell the people of Puerto Rico that.


Again, improvements in infrastructure and advance prediction of storms has improved. That says nothing about the frequency or strength of storms.


Please show us this data that we all know you don't have. Your own graph shows a higher than normal number of tornado's this year and the data only goes back two decades.

Tornadoes are down.

[FONT=&quot]U.S. Tornadoes (EF1-EF5) – Annual Count[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) – Click the pic to view at source​

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]U.S. Strong to Violent Tornadoes (EF3-EF5) – Annual Count[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) – Click the pic to view at source​

[/FONT]

 

[Jack Hays]

Umm...that's because if advancements in technology, infrastructure and medicine. It says nothing about whether storms are becoming more severe.


Because we build better houses


Maybe you should tell the people of Puerto Rico that.


Again, improvements in infrastructure and advance prediction of storms has improved. That says nothing about the frequency or strength of storms.


Please show us this data that we all know you don't have. Your own graph shows a higher than normal number of tornado's this year and the data only goes back two decades.

Another view:

[FONT=&quot]Detrended U.S. Annual Tornado Count 1953 – 2014 (November)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Storm Prediction Center – Washington Post – Click the pic to view at source​

[/FONT]

 

[Jack Hays]

ATLANTIC HURRICANE NUMBERS BY YEAR

From 1851 to 1999 there were only 6 times where the number of Named Tropical storms in the U.S. hit 15 or higher in a single year.

Since 2000 that has happened in 12 out of the last 17 years.

The average number of Major Hurricanes in the Atlantic averages 2 per year. Since 2000 there has only been one year where there was fewer than 2 with 10 years that had more than 2.

The average number of Hurricanes in the Atlantic is 6.5 per year. Since 2000 we've had 11 years with 7 or more hurricanes and only 5 with fewer than 6.

So... yeah you're very wrong.

No, you are.

Figure: Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) -- 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL.

 

[Jack Hays]

[h=2]Recent Tornadoes are Due to Unusually Cold Weather[/h]May 29th, 2019I had an op-ed published at Foxnews.com yesterday describing the reason why we have had so many tornadoes this year. The answer is the continuing cold weather stretching from Michigan through Colorado to California. A persistent cold air mass situated north and west of the usual placement of warm and humid Gulf air in the East is what is required for rotating thunderstorms to be embedded in a strong wind shear environment. . . .


As has been pointed out elsewhere, a trend line fit to the number of strong to violent U.S. tornadoes has gone down from 60 in 1954 to 30 in 2018. In other words, the number of most damaging tornadoes has, on average, been cut in half since U.S. statistics started to be compiled:
Or, phrased another way, the last half of the 65-year U.S. tornado record had 40% fewer strong to violent tornadoes than the first half.
To claim that global warming is causing more tornadoes is worse than speculative; it is directly opposite to the clear observational e

 

[LowDown]

[...]Please show us this data that we all know you don't have. Your own graph shows a higher than normal number of tornado's this year and the data only goes back two decades.

Here you go: https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articles/Kossin_2006GL028836.pdf

Also, this nice graph:


Also this:


There are more tornadoes than average so far this year. The graph shows that this is not unusual. Half of the time there will be an above average number of storms.

 

[LosAngelesAngel]

~ Nope - no climate crisis. But there certainly seems to be an IQ crisis.

 

[Jack Hays]

[FONT=&quot]Alarmism / Climate Politics[/FONT]
[h=1]Sorry, Alarmists, Climate Chaos Is Not Here[/h][FONT=&quot]From The Federalist Despite Democrats’ cataclysmal framing of every weather event, Americans are safer than ever. By David Harsanyi May 30, 2019 Climate isn’t the same as weather—unless, of course, weather happens to be politically useful. In that case, weather portends climate apocalypse. So warns Elizabeth Warren as she surveyed Iowan rainstorms, which she claims,…
[/FONT]

 

[Lord of Planar]

But this is all wrong. There is no evidence that the weather is increasingly dangerous to human lives. Despite the cataclysmic framing of every weather event, we're safer than we've ever been.

Deaths from extreme weather have dropped by 99.9% since 1920, when people would die from a cold snap or a heat wave.

We've seen a "spike" in tornadoes this year, but that's only slightly above average. Last year the US saw no strong tornadoes at all. Deaths from tornadoes were lowest ever.

View attachment 67257421

There has been a long term decline in the cost of tornado damage.

After a few devastating hurricanes a decade ago it was predicted that we'd see ever stronger and more numerous such storms. There followed 9 years with no major hurricanes in the US.

US National Hazard data shows a 30 year low in deaths from extreme weather.

There has, if anything, been a long term decline in hurricanes and tornadoes. There is no evidence of any recent significant increase.

Government climate scientists have no proven ability to predict the frequency of hurricanes and tornadoes.





Sorry, Democrats, There Is No Climate Chaos

Do you really expect them to believe other than what their authoritarian masters have commanded them to believe?

 

[Lord of Planar]

Maybe you should tell the people of Puerto Rico that.

The key indicator of a Hurricane for it's strength is the measured millibars. The lower the stronger.

The low pressure of Hurricane Maria measured 908 millibars. This is amazing!

How many storms were lower in that region?

At least nine I can find. The Labor Day storm was in 1935, and measured 892 millibars. Camille was in 1969 and measured 900 millibars. I'm sure there were stronger ones in past history before we could accurately measure them. The list I pulled only went back to 1924. The oldest one on this category 5 list was 910 millibars.

 

[Lord of Planar]

ATLANTIC HURRICANE NUMBERS BY YEAR

From 1851 to 1999 there were only 6 times where the number of Named Tropical storms in the U.S. hit 15 or higher in a single year.

Since 2000 that has happened in 12 out of the last 17 years.

The average number of Major Hurricanes in the Atlantic averages 2 per year. Since 2000 there has only been one year where there was fewer than 2 with 10 years that had more than 2.

The average number of Hurricanes in the Atlantic is 6.5 per year. Since 2000 we've had 11 years with 7 or more hurricanes and only 5 with fewer than 6.

So... yeah you're very wrong.

Yes, satellite technology allows us to see storms that we couldn't see, and didn't even know of before.

 

[MrWonka]

Yes, satellite technology allows us to see storms that we couldn't see, and didn't even know of before.

The first satellites went into space in the 60's. We've had solid weather sensing technology for quite some time now. Hurricane's and Tropical storms in the Atlantic are massive. They don't just pop up discretely and go away. It doesn't take a high tech weather satellite to notice a cloud that's 20 miles in diameter. Sorry, try again.

 

[marke]

Umm...that's because if advancements in technology, infrastructure and medicine. It says nothing about whether storms are becoming more severe.
Because we build better houses
Maybe you should tell the people of Puerto Rico that.
Again, improvements in infrastructure and advance prediction of storms has improved. That says nothing about the frequency or strength of storms.
Please show us this data that we all know you don't have. Your own graph shows a higher than normal number of tornado's this year and the data only goes back two decades.

The scientific data shows that there is no noticeable increase in tornado strengths or numbers in the US. Those who claim tornadoes are increasing in number or severity are deceiving people. They should not be saying things which are not right.

… The bar charts below indicate there has been little trend in the frequency of the stronger tornadoes over the last 55 years. ...

Historical Records and Trends | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) formerly known as National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

 

[MrWonka]

Here you go: https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articles/Kossin_2006GL028836.pdf

First, this study is on intensity, not overall number which my data clearly shows is increasing and you've yet to even attempt to refute that.

Secondly, your own study says this...

we were not able to corroborate the presence of upward trends in hurricane intensity over the past two decades in any basin other than the Atlantic.

The first problem here is obviously that they're only going back three decades. Global warming began long before that.

Secondly, the North Atlantic is a key basin. Many of the others are located where it's already very hot or still very cold. You expect to notice the changes the most in the parts of the ocean that's in the middle. The North Atlantic is just above the Tropic of Cancer and watching how storms that originate further south behave as they go north is very telling.

It is a fact that warmer ocean water drives tropical storms. As that water temperature continues to increase globally it is quite obvious what that will lead to you can manipulate data all you want to make it look less significant, but it doesn't change reality. This will get worse over time whether you think the storms of today are showing those signs yet or not.

 

[MrWonka]

I had an op-ed published at Foxnews.com yesterday describing the reason why we have had so many tornadoes this year.

HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Okay, first off... An op-ed? On Fox News? You expect us to take that seriously?

But sadly that's not the funniest part of this...

The answer is the continuing cold weather stretching from Michigan through Colorado to California. A persistent cold air mass situated north and west of the usual placement of warm and humid Gulf air in the East is what is required for rotating thunderstorms to be embedded in a strong wind shear environment. . . .

Ummm... you know what the polar vortex is right? Cause that's what's driving the unseasonably cold weather. The polar vortex causes more extreme weather patterns. Both higher highs for certain period, but also colder colds for certain periods. Guess what caused the Polar Vortex? You guessed it... Global Warming.

 

[MrWonka]

Those who claim tornadoes are increasing in number or severity are deceiving people. They should not be saying things which are not right.

… The bar charts below indicate there has been little trend in the frequency of the stronger tornadoes over the last 55 years...

Maybe you should learn to read better...

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-Malthusia, cautioned as she too warned of extreme tornadoes. "But ALL of these threats will be increasing in intensity as climate crisis grows

She said that they will be. Not that they necessarily already have. Tornados themselves aren't really the issue. The bigger issue is hurricanes and flooding. We are still decades from the worst effects of Global Warming, but if we don't start counteracting it now it will be too late.

 

[Jack Hays]

Maybe you should learn to read better...



She said that they will be. Not that they necessarily already have. Tornados themselves aren't really the issue. The bigger issue is hurricanes and flooding. We are still decades from the worst effects of Global Warming, but if we don't start counteracting it now it will be too late.

The link is to the website of Dr. Roy Spencer, a very well known climate scientist. Pay attention.

 

[Nickyjo]

Everybody calm down. Trump just commissioned a fair and balanced group to study the issue to counter what silly government scientists warned about, and no doubt prove his theory that this is a hoax invented by the Chinese.

The issue is simple: conservatives are skeptical, because to believe the generally accepted science means you might have to regulate some businesses, and they hate that. Liberals don’t mind government interference in the economy as much. It is not really more complicated than that. Years ago, the conservative mayor of Denver speculated that its winter brown cloud could “have blown in from Seattle for all we know,” presumably because he didn’t want to regulate cars and industry. It’s possible that the left may tend to exaggerate things like smog, damage to the ozone layer, acid rain, but it’s *definite* that conservatives will tend to deny the phenomena. It’s how both sides roll, but if you go to oil company websites, it seems they are on board with the theory. Strangely, the only major political party in the developed world that challenges the science is part of the GOP.

So go ahead, Donald, show us that the theory of human caused climate change is wrong. Great. We lefties can then relax and go on to save whales or something

 

[Jack Hays]

Everybody calm down. Trump just commissioned a fair and balanced group to study the issue to counter what silly government scientists warned about, and no doubt prove his theory that this is a hoax invented by the Chinese.

The issue is simple: conservatives are skeptical, because to believe the generally accepted science means you might have to regulate some businesses, and they hate that. Liberals don’t mind government interference in the economy as much. It is not really more complicated than that. Years ago, the conservative mayor of Denver speculated that its winter brown cloud could “have blown in from Seattle for all we know,” presumably because he didn’t want to regulate cars and industry. It’s possible that the left may tend to exaggerate things like smog, damage to the ozone layer, acid rain, but it’s *definite* that conservatives will tend to deny the phenomena. It’s how both sides roll, but if you go to oil company websites, it seems they are on board with the theory. Strangely, the only major political party in the developed world that challenges the science is part of the GOP.

So go ahead, Donald, show us that the theory of human caused climate change is wrong. Great. We lefties can then relax and go on to save whales or something

The AGW narrative is threatened by science, not politics. The pretense that this is a political question is merely a way to dodge the scientific challenge.

 

[Nickyjo]

The AGW narrative is threatened by science, not politics. The pretense that this is a political question is merely a way to dodge the scientific challenge.

Really? How do you explain conservative skepticism and liberal belief? You can type with a straight face and not acknowledge that conservatives are hostile to government regulation which what accepting the theory suggests?

Anyway, prove it wrong. Submit articles to Science and Scientific American. Go to the next Paris-type conference with your peer-reviewed scientific papers and stop all the alarmist foolishness already so we can move on to the whales. You will be hailed as the next Galileo.