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Thread: Just another small indicator

  1. #11
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    Re: Just another small indicator

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    You say it like an earlier ice break up date is unexpected!
    The climate has been warming since ~1850, and what you described is expected.
    ‘Like’ it was unexpected?

    Denier guilt is getting to you, eh?
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

  2. #12
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    Re: Just another small indicator

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    You say it like an earlier ice break up date is unexpected!
    The climate has been warming since ~1850, and what you described is expected.
    The fact is, so far as I can determine from those who are experts in this field say, that the overall trend once the ice age reaches its maximum low point is warming until we reach a tipping point in which we go back to north America being encased in ice. The warming and cooling is not constant but consists of a lot of anomalies along the way. We are technically in an ice age now but in the upward warming trend of it and some climatologists suggest we may be overdue for the next really cold spell.

    The period of time that humankind has been keeping records of temperatures, ice coverage etc. is so short a time in the overall big picture--barely an eye blink--that we honestly can't know what 'normal' is over a period of 5, 10, 20 thousand years. The best they can do are educated guesses based on what evidence they can extrapolate from tree rings, ice cores, etc. and it is not an exact science.

    What we do know is that plant and animal life most prosper during the warmest periods.

    But if human kind is affecting the climate, and it is possible that activities of almost 8 billion people on Earth do have some effect, that effect could just as easily be for the common good as could be to its detriment.

    That is something I think must be considered in the equation. When ALL the emphasis is on controlling human activity lest some catastrophic effect be imminent, I think we are missing much of the science that should be explored.

    And when focusing on only one possibility becomes almost a religion is our present day reality, you have to consider an underlying motive of increasing the power, influence, and/or personal wealth of those promoting it.
    --Nobody deserves to be automatically judged guilty just because somebody accuses them. The accusation itself could be the crime.
    --"I think the best way of doing good to the poor, is not making them easy in poverty, but leading or driving them out of it." --Benjamin Franklin 1776

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    Re: Just another small indicator

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    On Alaska, they’ve had a game called the Nenana Ice Classic, where they set up a tripod on a frozen river and people gamble on the date the ice melts and tips the tripod over. Been going on almost a century.

    The winning date is clearly trending.... this year was the all tone record for early breakup.

    Fox News Headline:
    2014 Was the second latest ice break up date this century, is the planet cooling too fast?

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    Re: Just another small indicator

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    ‘Like’ it was unexpected?

    Denier guilt is getting to you, eh?
    No Guilt, I acknowledge what most of the scientific consensus agrees with,
    That global temperatures have increased over the last century.
    Scientific opinion on climate change - Wikipedia
    Earth's climate has warmed significantly since the late 1800s.
    If that the earth has warmed since the late 1800's is accepted, why
    would you show that a river thawing earlier is something unusual, it is not, it is expected.

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    Re: Just another small indicator

    Quote Originally Posted by AlbqOwl View Post
    The fact is, so far as I can determine from those who are experts in this field say, that the overall trend once the ice age reaches its maximum low point is warming until we reach a tipping point in which we go back to north America being encased in ice. The warming and cooling is not constant but consists of a lot of anomalies along the way. We are technically in an ice age now but in the upward warming trend of it and some climatologists suggest we may be overdue for the next really cold spell.

    The period of time that humankind has been keeping records of temperatures, ice coverage etc. is so short a time in the overall big picture--barely an eye blink--that we honestly can't know what 'normal' is over a period of 5, 10, 20 thousand years. The best they can do are educated guesses based on what evidence they can extrapolate from tree rings, ice cores, etc. and it is not an exact science.

    What we do know is that plant and animal life most prosper during the warmest periods.

    But if human kind is affecting the climate, and it is possible that activities of almost 8 billion people on Earth do have some effect, that effect could just as easily be for the common good as could be to its detriment.

    That is something I think must be considered in the equation. When ALL the emphasis is on controlling human activity lest some catastrophic effect be imminent, I think we are missing much of the science that should be explored.

    And when focusing on only one possibility becomes almost a religion is our present day reality, you have to consider an underlying motive of increasing the power, influence, and/or personal wealth of those promoting it.
    If only changing climate left detailed records in things like ice layers, tree rings, and sediment deposits. Then scientists could measure how fast the climate typically changes


    Take your own advice.
    Exxon Knew about Climate Change Almost 40 Years Ago - Scientific American
    Exxon is a 1/4 Trillion dollar company. Most climate scientists squeak by on 100k grants.

    For perspective you can fit 100k of 100$ bills in a few pockets.
    This is what 1 Trillion worth of $100s looks like...

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    Re: Just another small indicator

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    On Alaska, they’ve had a game called the Nenana Ice Classic, where they set up a tripod on a frozen river and people gamble on the date the ice melts and tips the tripod over. Been going on almost a century.

    The winning date is clearly trending.... this year was the all tone record for early breakup.

    Sun spots!

    Volcanoes!

    Fake News!

    The earth is cooling!
    The stupidity on the Right is legion, surpassed only by the ignorance. - Calamity 2019

  7. #17
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    Re: Just another small indicator

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    No Guilt, I acknowledge what most of the scientific consensus agrees with,
    That global temperatures have increased over the last century.
    Scientific opinion on climate change - Wikipedia

    If that the earth has warmed since the late 1800's is accepted, why
    would you show that a river thawing earlier is something unusual, it is not, it is expected.
    The stupidity on the Right is legion, surpassed only by the ignorance. - Calamity 2019

  8. #18
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    Re: Just another small indicator

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithros View Post
    If only changing climate left detailed records in things like ice layers, tree rings, and sediment deposits. Then scientists could measure how fast the climate typically changes


    Take your own advice.
    Exxon Knew about Climate Change Almost 40 Years Ago - Scientific American
    Exxon is a 1/4 Trillion dollar company. Most climate scientists squeak by on 100k grants.

    For perspective you can fit 100k of 100$ bills in a few pockets.
    This is what 1 Trillion worth of $100s looks like...
    Almost all climate scientists paid to study global warming/climate change depend on soft money via government grants for their salaries. If the government reaches a conclusion that we are not in imminent danger from climate change, a lot of those grants cannot be justified and could stop. Climate scientists receiving those grants--and no AGW skeptics are getting them--have a very strong motive NOT to find or report anything that would indicate AGW is not a problem.

    As for the oil companies, they have been making out like bandits accommodating 'green energy', and if you were paying attention, all have been advertising support for green energy initiatives. They also have been getting very lucrative government grants to work on biofuels, reformulate petroleum based fuels and such. One member of my immediate family is a design and mechanical/petroleum engineer with a major oil company spent most of a year designing and building a government funded facility that would render beef fat into bio fuels. Partnered with Tyson Inc. who also was subsidized, Tyson would deliver the beef fat and it would be processed into fuel. Extremely cost inefficient and impractical for we the taxpayers, and a tiny drop in the bucket oveall, but what the heck. It was combating AGW or climate change as they prefer to call it now.

    The oil companies, just like the climate scientists, have absolutely zero incentive to interfere with the politically correct position on this issue.
    --Nobody deserves to be automatically judged guilty just because somebody accuses them. The accusation itself could be the crime.
    --"I think the best way of doing good to the poor, is not making them easy in poverty, but leading or driving them out of it." --Benjamin Franklin 1776

  9. #19
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    Re: Just another small indicator

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithros View Post
    If only changing climate left detailed records in things like ice layers, tree rings, and sediment deposits. Then scientists could measure how fast the climate typically changes


    Take your own advice.
    Exxon Knew about Climate Change Almost 40 Years Ago - Scientific American
    Exxon is a 1/4 Trillion dollar company. Most climate scientists squeak by on 100k grants.
    Exxon shared everything they learned and knew.


    The "Exxon Climate Papers" show what Exxon and climate science knew and shared

    If they withheld or suppressed climate research from the public or shareholders, it is not apparent in these documents. Guest essay by Andy May New York Attorney General Eric T. Schneiderman has accused ExxonMobil of lying to the public and investors about the risks of climate change according to the NY Times and has launched…
    "It's always reassuring to find you've made the right enemies." -- William J. Donovan

  10. #20
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    Re: Just another small indicator

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithros View Post
    If only changing climate left detailed records in things like ice layers, tree rings, and sediment deposits. Then scientists could measure how fast the climate typically changes


    Take your own advice.
    Exxon Knew about Climate Change Almost 40 Years Ago - Scientific American
    Exxon is a 1/4 Trillion dollar company. Most climate scientists squeak by on 100k grants.

    For perspective you can fit 100k of 100$ bills in a few pockets.
    This is what 1 Trillion worth of $100s looks like...
    Do you know what the temporal resolution of those kind of proxies is?
    Marcott says it right in his often cited paper.
    A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years | Science
    The 73 globally distributed temperature records used in our analysis are based on a variety of
    paleotemperature proxies and have sampling resolutions ranging from 20 to 500 years, with a median resolution of 120 years (5)
    Weather recent warming would show up in the proxy record, is somewhat questionable, but it might cause the line to wiggle some.
    Saying weather past wiggles are, or are not similar warming events, would require too much subjective assumption.

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