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Polar Bears Are Thriving

[h=2]Attenborough’s Arctic Betrayal: New video reveals that terrorizing young children about climate began with polar bears[/h]Posted on January 27, 2020 | Comments Offon Attenborough’s Arctic Betrayal: New video reveals that terrorizing young children about climate began with polar bears
My newest video released today summarizes the strong polar bear component to the terrorization of the world’s children about climate change, which began for many youngsters in 2006 with the BBC and Sir David Attenborough’s commentaries about the dire future of polar bears – and continues to this day. Kids get their climate change information from watching Attenborough documentaries at home and in school because they are trusted sources of information, but on the topic of Arctic victims of climate change, that trust has been betrayed.
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Many children and young adults worldwide, including 16 year old Swedish climate campaigner Greta Thunburg, have been presented with such emotionally-charged and deceptive information about the Arctic through Attenborough’s productions that many have lost hope for the future. These despondent kids, as well as their parents and teachers, need reminding that while summer sea ice has indeed declined over the last few decades, polar bears, walrus, and other Arctic species are thriving (Aars 2018; Boveng 2016; Crockford 2017, 2018, 2019a, b; Kovacs 2016; Lowry 2015; MacCracken et al. 2017; Obbard et al. 2016; Rode et al. 2014, 2018).
Here is the video (13 minutes):
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The press release issued by the Global Warming Policy Foundation states:
It is the responsibility of teachers and parents to reassure these worried youngsters that polar bears and walrus are not suffering because of sea ice loss blamed on climate change. Children need to be told the truth: that whatever scary stories some biologists come up with about what might happen in the future, Arctic species have demonstrated that they are much more resilient to changes in sea ice than Attenborough’s films suggest.
The GWPF is sending copies of this video to all head teachers of UK schools together with a letter, telling them that they are responsible for the mental health of their pupils and that they have a responsibility to provide their pupils with accurate information about the state of wildlife in the Arctic.
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The letter sent to head teachers will include a list of verifiable facts, with references, listed here.
Below is my timeline, with references, and below the references is a list of previous videos on this topic.
Continue reading
 
[h=2]New paper says Baffin Bay polar bears may have been affected by less summer sea ice[/h]Posted on February 5, 2020 | Comments Offon New paper says Baffin Bay polar bears may have been affected by less summer sea ice
A new paper on Baffin Bay polar bears reports data on body condition and litter sizes collected as part of a major study of the region completed in 2013 compared to sea ice declines since the 1990s; based on a computer model, the authors predict that in 37 years time (if sea ice declines continuously), the incidence of twin litters could “largely disappear.” However, no decline in population numbers was predicted and a critical caveat acknowledges that factors other than changes in sea ice could have affected the body condition and litter size data the authors analyzed, which means the conclusions are scientifically inconclusive.
polarbearatthulerobindavies-500x349-sm.jpg
Fat polar bear, summer 2012 near Thule, NW Greenland (Baffin Bay subpopulation). Robin Davies photo.
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The last (2013) polar bear population survey of Baffin Bay (SWG 2016) generated an estimate of almost 3,000 (2,826; range 2,059-3,593), which means that regardless of some slight changes in body condition and litter size over the last two decades (which may or may not have been caused by loss of sea ice), there are currently a lot of bears in Baffin Bay.
Continue reading
 
[h=2]First-ever polar bear population survey for entire Russian coast planned for 2021-2023[/h]Posted on February 12, 2020 | Comments Offon First-ever polar bear population survey for entire Russian coast planned for 2021-2023
Word that Russia is planning to generate a count of polar bears along its entire Arctic coast within the next few years is good news indeed, as it will resolve a long-standing gap in population estimates that have not been dealt with at all well by the polar bear community. Whether North American and European academics will accept the results of the aerial surveys is another matter entirely, especially if the numbers are higher than they like, which is what happened with the first Russian Kara Sea count in 2013.
mother-with-cubs-russia_shutterstock_71694292_web-size.jpg

Up first will be the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas in 2021, the Laptev and Kara Seas, in 2022, and the eastern Barents Sea around Franz Josef Land in 2023.
polar-bear-regions_larger.jpg

Continue reading
 
[h=2]Polar bear habitat at mid-winter as extensive as 2013 & better than 2006[/h]Posted on February 14, 2020 | Comments Offon Polar bear habitat at mid-winter as extensive as 2013 & better than 2006
Arctic sea ice at the middle of winter (January-March) is a measure of what’s to come because winter ice is the set-up for early spring, the time when polar bears do most of their feeding on young seals.
polar_bear_male-on-sea-ice_alaska-katovik-regehr-photo_april-29-2005_sm-labeled-e1581695680130.jpg

[Mid-winter photos of polar bears are hard to come by, partly because the Arctic is still dark for most hours of the day, it’s still bitterly cold, and scientists don’t venture out to do work on polar bears until the end of March at the earliest]
At 12 February this year, the ice was similar in overall extent to 2013 but higher than 2006.
sea-ice-extent-2020-and-2013-and-2006-at-13-feb-2020_closeup-nsidc-interactive.jpg

Continue reading
 
[h=2]Polar Bear Scare Unmasked: The Saga of a Toppled Global Warming Icon [another look][/h]Posted on February 20, 2020 | Comments Offon Polar Bear Scare Unmasked: The Saga of a Toppled Global Warming Icon [another look]
For almost twenty years, , we’ve endured the shrill media headlines, the hyperbole from conservation organizations, and the simplistic platitudes from scientists as summer sea ice declined dramatically while polar bear numbers rose. This video of mine from two years ago, which deconstructs the scare, is worth another look as International Polar Bear Day approaches with its associated ‘save the polar bear’ rhetoric.
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[h=2]Japanese IWJ News Site Reports Polar Bears, Snow Cover, Increasing… No Real Climate Science Consensus[/h]By P Gosselin on 21. February 2020
Experts: polar bears and winter snow on the increase
The online Japanese Independent Web Journal (IWJ) reports on a leading figure in polar bear research, Dr. Susan Crockford, who says “polar bears will not become extinct due to climate change” and that “in fact, polar bears have increased rather than become extinct!”
Crockford’s findings contradict claims by environmental activists groups such as the World Wildlife Fund (WWF).
For example the WWF Japan reported in 2009 (hat-tip Kirye) that the estimated population was 26,000 and that the polar bears escaped extinction due to intervention by international conservation activities, but then added: “it is believed that the population is decreasing due to the effects of global warming and the deterioration of the Arctic environment.”
Today, 10 years later, however, Crockford says the numbers “could easily exceed 40,000, up from a low point of 10,000 or fewer in the 1960s.” Clearly the WWF Japan’s 2009 claim that the “population is decreasing” was false.
440 papers from 2019 challenge climate “consensus”

The IWJ article, authored by Japanese blogger Kirye, also reports: “Over 440 scientific papers questioned the main causes of climate change CO2 in 2019 alone” and that “the theory of global warming caused by CO2 is still a hypothesis” and so in reality does not have the broad consensus among scientists that is often claimed in the media and by some vocal scientists.
Winter snow cover at highest levels since measurements began
The IWJ article also notes that snow has hardly become a thing of the past as reports of heavy wintertime snowfalls keep making the headlines. In fact northern hemisphere snow cover for fall shows high levels over the past decade and a rising trend:
200217_467935_image1.png

The Japan-based IWJ also links to NoTricksZone here, which earlier reported on fall and winter snow cover trends over the northern hemisphere.
 
Jack Hays said:
[h=2]Japanese IWJ News Site Reports Polar Bears, Snow Cover, Increasing… No Real Climate Science Consensus[/h]By P Gosselin on 21. February 2020
Experts: polar bears and winter snow on the increase
The online Japanese Independent Web Journal (IWJ) reports on a leading figure in polar bear research, Dr. Susan Crockford, who says “polar bears will not become extinct due to climate change” and that “in fact, polar bears have increased rather than become extinct!”
Crockford’s findings contradict claims by environmental activists groups such as the World Wildlife Fund (WWF).
For example the WWF Japan reported in 2009 (hat-tip Kirye) that the estimated population was 26,000 and that the polar bears escaped extinction due to intervention by international conservation activities, but then added: “it is believed that the population is decreasing due to the effects of global warming and the deterioration of the Arctic environment.”
Today, 10 years later, however, Crockford says the numbers “could easily exceed 40,000, up from a low point of 10,000 or fewer in the 1960s.” Clearly the WWF Japan’s 2009 claim that the “population is decreasing” was false.
440 papers from 2019 challenge climate “consensus”

The IWJ article, authored by Japanese blogger Kirye, also reports: “Over 440 scientific papers questioned the main causes of climate change CO2 in 2019 alone” and that “the theory of global warming caused by CO2 is still a hypothesis” and so in reality does not have the broad consensus among scientists that is often claimed in the media and by some vocal scientists.
Winter snow cover at highest levels since measurements began
The IWJ article also notes that snow has hardly become a thing of the past as reports of heavy wintertime snowfalls keep making the headlines. In fact northern hemisphere snow cover for fall shows high levels over the past decade and a rising trend:
200217_467935_image1.png

The Japan-based IWJ also links to NoTricksZone here, which earlier reported on fall and winter snow cover trends over the northern hemisphere.
Click to expand...

Another guy with inappropriate credentials.
 
[h=2]Flashback Friday: The Politics of Polar Bears CBC documentary from 2014[/h]Posted on February 21, 2020 | Comments Offon Flashback Friday: The Politics of Polar Bears CBC documentary from 2014
Worth watching if you haven’t seen it – and a second look if you have – a rare balanced documentary produced by the CBC in 2014 on polar bear conservation, with interviews with biologists Mitch Taylor and Andrew Derocher.
politics-of-polar-bears-title.jpg

“In The Politics of Polar Bears, Reg Sherren will pick his way through the message track to help you decide what is really happening with the largest land carnivore on the planet.”
Short version here (about 18 minutes):
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Entire version (45:30):
CBC Player | The Politics of Polar Bears
Online summary by the producer of the film, Reg Sherren (see excerpt below).
The most up-to-date discussion of polar bear numbers and the politics of polar bears are in my popular new book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened.
Continue reading
 
Threegoofs said:
Another guy with inappropriate credentials.
Click to expand...

Another dead on arrival post you make...…, who doesn't bother to notice the charts and links are from Rutgers Snow Labs.
 
[h=2]Why are polar bears going extinct?[/h]Posted on February 24, 2020 | Comments Offon Why are polar bears going extinct?
Google says many people ask this question so here is the correct answer: polar bears are not going extinct. If you have been told that, you have misunderstood or have been misinformed. Polar bears are well-distributed across their available habitat and population numbers are high (officially 22,000-31,000 at 2015 but likely closer to 26,000-58,000 at 2018): these are features of a healthy, thriving species. ‘Why are polar bears going extinct?’ contains a false premise – there is no need to ask ‘why’ when the ‘polar bears [are] going extinct’ part is not true.1
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It is true that in 2007, it was predicted that polar bear numbers would plummet when summer sea ice declined to 42% of 1979 levels for 8 out of 10 years (anticipated to occur by 2050) and extinct or nearly so by 2100 (Amstrup et al. 2007). However, summer sea ice has been at ‘mid-century-like’ levels since 2007 (with year to year variation, see NOAA ice chart below) yet polar bear numbers have increased since 2005. The anticipated disaster did not occur but many people still believe it did because the media and some researchers still give that impression. . . .
 
New Research: Polar Bears’ Seal Diet Hasn’t Changed…Their Body Condition Is Best After Sea Ice Breaks Up

By Kenneth Richard on 27. February 2020
The perspective that polar bears are endangered by global warming because reduced sea ice limits their seal-hunting opportunities is contradicted by observations of (a) polar bears thriving (body condition) during melt season, and (b) no trends in reduced seal consumption by polar bears in the 21st century.

From the 1880s to 1940s, the Arctic’s Beaufort Sea was up to 3°C warmer than the 2000s (Durantou et al., 2012).
Consequently, during this warmer period, the region’s sea ice coverage endured over a month less (i.e., 34 fewer days of sea ice) than it does today.
Somehow the region’s polar bears managed to survive with warmer temperatures and less sea ice.
Arctic-Beaufort-Sea-3C-warmer-with-1.1-months-less-sea-ice-1885-1935-Durantou-2012.jpg

Image Source: Durantou et al., 2012

New study: No change in seal diet of Beaufort Sea polar bears (2004-2016)
A new study (Bourque et al., 2020) finds about 65% of the Beaufort Sea polar bear diet consists of ringed and bearded seals.
Trend analysis indicates this shows there is no “clear increases or decreases in proportional consumption of any prey species” from 2004 to 2016. Further, “the effect for melt season was not significant for any individual prey (p > .10)”.
In other words, polar bears were consuming no fewer seals in 2016 than they did in 2004.
The reduction in sea ice hasn’t limited polar bears’ feeding practices.
No-changes-in-polar-bear-seal-consumption-2004-2016-Bourque-2020.jpg

Image Source: Bourque et al., 2020

That polar bears continue to feast on seals when sea ice is less available in the late summer is not surprising to native populations. Inuit hunters have observed polar bears capturing seals on “really thin” ice (Wong et al., 2017). Thick sea ice isn’t necessary. . . .

Polar bears’ best body condition is in August-October – after sea ice breakup occurs

Polar bears’ worst body condition – when they’re at their thinnest – occurs during the months of the year when sea ice is thick: April and May.
Their best, well-fed body condition occurs during the months when sea ice is at its thinnest, or after the seasonal ice break-up occurs: August to October.
Scientists acknowledge the “increase in body condition after break-up date was somewhat unexpected” (Galicia et al., 2020).
Highest-polar-bear-body-condition-occurs-during-sea-ice-deterioration-break-up-Galicia-2020.jpg

Image Source: Galicia et al., 2020

“Consensus” science and the “emotional charging of the polar bear”
The likely reason polar bears’ seal-hunting resiliency is “unexpected” is because many scientists have assumed the popular claim that polar bear habitats are threatened by declining sea ice is accurate.
After all, that’s what the “consensus” says.
Anyone who disagrees with the declining-sea-ice-threatens-polar-bears narrative is a “denier” engaging in “denial” according to scientists like Michael E. Mann (Harvey et al., 2018). . . .

 
[h=2]State of the Polar Bear Report 2019: Are polar bear researchers hiding good news?[/h]Posted on February 27, 2020 | Comments Offon State of the Polar Bear Report 2019: Are polar bear researchers hiding good news?
International Polar Bear Day is a good day to ask: Are polar bear researchers hiding good news? Extended lags in publishing polar bear counts and a failure to publish data on female polar bear body weights and cub survival in Western Hudson Bay for more than 25 years make it look like polar bear researchers are delaying and suppressing good news.
statepb2019-cover-image.jpg

In particular, the failure to report the data on cub survival and weights of female bears suggests that these health measures have not declined over the last two decades as claimed. If these figures are indeed the strongest evidence that sea ice loss due to climate change is harming Western Hudson Bay polar bears, why on earth have they not been made public? And why won’t a single journalist ask to see that data?
Continue reading
 
[h=2]Claims polar bear cannibalism on the rise in Russian Arctic not supported by facts[/h]Posted on February 26, 2020 | Comments Offon Claims polar bear cannibalism on the rise in Russian Arctic not supported by facts
The Guardian today expanded on a story published in the Moscow Times that quotes a Russian scientist claiming cannibalism among polar bears is on the rise in the Russian Arctic. However, the scientist offered no numbers to support this claim and there is no suggestion he had done a study on this phenomenon.
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As I’ve said before, incidents of cannibalism cannot be said to be increasing because there is no scientific baseline for which recent occurrences can be compared. Scattered anecdotal reports of any behaviour cannot be touted as evidence for a trend even though they may be of interest and worth recording.
Continue reading
 
It would be interesting to find out the ringed seal / bearded seal population over time. They get eaten by polar bears. However, the polar bears can't catch them because all the bears are starving floating on 10 foot ice patches.

Certainly there are more seals now, since there are less bears to eat them?
 
Rickeroo said:
It would be interesting to find out the ringed seal / bearded seal population over time. They get eaten by polar bears. However, the polar bears can't catch them because all the bears are starving floating on 10 foot ice patches.

Certainly there are more seals now, since there are less bears to eat them?
Click to expand...

Polar bear numbers are up.
Seals remain their dietary staple.
 
Rickeroo said:
It would be interesting to find out the ringed seal / bearded seal population over time. They get eaten by polar bears. However, the polar bears can't catch them because all the bears are starving floating on 10 foot ice patches.

Certainly there are more seals now, since there are less bears to eat them?
Click to expand...

If there is less ice then the seals are more concentrated and easier for the bears to catch.
 
Jack Hays said:
Claims polar bear cannibalism on the rise in Russian Arctic not supported by facts

Posted on February 26, 2020 | Comments Offon Claims polar bear cannibalism on the rise in Russian Arctic not supported by facts
The Guardian today expanded on a story published in the Moscow Times that quotes a Russian scientist claiming cannibalism among polar bears is on the rise in the Russian Arctic. However, the scientist offered no numbers to support this claim and there is no suggestion he had done a study on this phenomenon.

As I’ve said before, incidents of cannibalism cannot be said to be increasing because there is no scientific baseline for which recent occurrences can be compared. Scattered anecdotal reports of any behaviour cannot be touted as evidence for a trend even though they may be of interest and worth recording.
Continue reading
Click to expand...

Just yesterday on this Smithsonian You Tube I posted this:

A short search finds this:

"Today, polar bears are among the few large carnivores that
are still found in roughly their original habitat and range--and
in some places, in roughly their natural numbers.

Although most of the world's 19 populations have returned
to healthy numbers, there are differences between them.
Some are stable, some seem to be increasing, and some
are decreasing due to various pressures."

Source:
404 | WWF Arctic
Click to expand...

Today that
404 | WWF Arctic
link is missing.
 
[h=2]Svalbard Norway now has more polar bear habitat than it did two decades ago[/h]Posted on March 1, 2020 | Comments Offon Svalbard Norway now has more polar bear habitat than it did two decades ago
Sea ice around Svalbard, Norway at the end of February 2020 is way above average, as the graph below shows – with more polar bear habitat now than there has been in two decades.
svalbard-ice-extent-2020-feb-28-graph_nis.png

Some comparison charts below show that the graph above includes some very high ice years in the 1980s (reaching that dotted line above the mean) for which only global charts are available.
However, contrary to suggestions that more Svalbard ice is better for polar bears, there is no evidence that low extent of sea ice habitat in winter or summer over the last two decades harmed polar bear health, reproductive performance, or abundance. In fact, polar bear numbers in 2015 were 42% higher than they were in 2004 (although not a significant increase, statistically speaking) and most bears were found to be in excellent condition.
svalbard-polar-bear_aars-august-2015-np058930_press-release.jpg

This suggests a return to more extensive ice to the Svalbard region in winter will have little impact on the health of the entire Barents Sea subpopulation, although it might change where pregnant females are able to make their maternity dens if ice forms early enough in the fall. In other words, the population should continue to grow as it has been doing since the bears were protected by international treaty in 1973.
Continue reading
 
[h=2]Baffin Bay polar bears are abundant and the population is stable, study scientist admits[/h]Posted on March 3, 2020 | Comments Offon Baffin Bay polar bears are abundant and the population is stable, study scientist admits
An article by CBC News today (3 March 2020) is a surprisingly well-balance report on a recently published paper by Kristin Laidre and colleagues on their work on Baffin Bay polar bears that I discussed last month. It presents the Inuit perspective that polar bears are currently abundant in the area and the population stable despite less summer sea ice and some documented declines in body weight and at least one scientist conceded this is indeed true.

polarbearatthulerobindavies-500x349-sm.jpg
Fat polar bear, summer 2012 near Thule, NW Greenland (Baffin Bay subpopulation). Robin Davies photo.
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However, the CBC writer still left out the most critical caveat included in the paper about the study: that factors other than changes in sea ice could have affected the body condition and litter size data that the authors documented but they didn’t look at anything except sea ice. This automatically means the conclusions are scientifically inconclusive.
See some quotes below from the CBC article and the caveat from the paper. Continue reading
 
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