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Thread: No One Can Understand My Global Warming Argument

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    No One Can Understand My Global Warming Argument

    I have a solid argument to the effect that there has been no significant change in global temperatures for the last 100 years. Unfortunately, it's based on advanced statistical data analysis concepts, and nobody can understand it.

    It starts with the idea that the temperature record is a time series with a high degree of autocorrelation.

    See? Lost you already.

    I could simplify the argument by using an analogy -- Brownian Motion!

    Not any better, eh?

    Albert Einstein won the Nobel Prize for this, so I guess it's not that easy.

    Regardless, if you put a tiny pollen particle in a Petri dish filled with pure water the fact that the particle will wander all the way from one side of the dish to the other is not evidence that there are water currents in the dish. It's just random motion.

    If I don't answer your post it's because you lost the debate.

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    Re: No One Can Understand My Global Warming Argument

    What you are saying is that the randomness of the signal, the expected deviation from the mean, is larger than the observed warming.

    Well, that's not so hard.

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    Re: No One Can Understand My Global Warming Argument

    Quote Originally Posted by LowDown View Post
    I have a solid argument to the effect that there has been no significant change in global temperatures for the last 100 years. Unfortunately, it's based on advanced statistical data analysis concepts, and nobody can understand it.

    It starts with the idea that the temperature record is a time series with a high degree of autocorrelation.

    See? Lost you already.

    I could simplify the argument by using an analogy -- Brownian Motion!

    Not any better, eh?

    Albert Einstein won the Nobel Prize for this, so I guess it's not that easy.

    Regardless, if you put a tiny pollen particle in a Petri dish filled with pure water the fact that the particle will wander all the way from one side of the dish to the other is not evidence that there are water currents in the dish. It's just random motion.
    Oh! So it's what Tim P. said

    Here's a screen print uh 4 actually from an Excel random chart generator.



    It's set up to always start at about the same place but then it's a "Drunk Walk"
    of +(RAND()-0.5)*0.15 for each year and a plot of a running 5 year median.

    Well anyway the four results were from around 100 trials. Some trials go
    right off the chart and then a few look amazingly like the world temperature
    time lines we've all seen. In this case HADCRUT 3 or 4 was used, doesn't
    much make a difference.

    So? Could temperature over the last 170 year be more random than anything
    else?
    “Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. The opportunities for taxation,
    for policies, for control, for crony capitalism are just immense, you can see their eyes bulge,” . . . . . . . . . . . Richard Lindzen

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    Re: No One Can Understand My Global Warming Argument

    Quote Originally Posted by LowDown View Post
    I have a solid argument to the effect that there has been no significant change in global temperatures for the last 100 years. Unfortunately, it's based on advanced statistical data analysis concepts, and nobody can understand it.

    It starts with the idea that the temperature record is a time series with a high degree of autocorrelation.

    See? Lost you already.

    I could simplify the argument by using an analogy -- Brownian Motion!

    Not any better, eh?

    Albert Einstein won the Nobel Prize for this, so I guess it's not that easy.

    Regardless, if you put a tiny pollen particle in a Petri dish filled with pure water the fact that the particle will wander all the way from one side of the dish to the other is not evidence that there are water currents in the dish. It's just random motion.
    The problem is the random motion in global chage peoples brains. They dont understand that the USA is a country, not a planet. So if we choose to cut our own throats with this nonsense, no one else will change. On the contrary, they will seek to fill the void created by our downfall.
    The only person who calls your congressman is a lobbyist.
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    When it’s raining thread craps, you know you have struck a nerve!
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    Re: No One Can Understand My Global Warming Argument

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckiechan View Post
    The problem is the random motion in global chage peoples brains. They dont understand that the USA is a country, not a planet. So if we choose to cut our own throats with this nonsense, no one else will change. On the contrary, they will seek to fill the void created by our downfall.
    Are you saying there's no need to change our burning of fossil fuels until they run out?
    When I stop answering you, there's a reason.......repeat, When I stop answering you, there's a reason.

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    Re: No One Can Understand My Global Warming Argument

    Quote Originally Posted by LowDown View Post
    I have a solid argument to the effect that there has been no significant change in global temperatures for the last 100 years. Unfortunately, it's based on advanced statistical data analysis concepts, and nobody can understand it.

    It starts with the idea that the temperature record is a time series with a high degree of autocorrelation.

    See? Lost you already.

    I could simplify the argument by using an analogy -- Brownian Motion!

    Not any better, eh?

    Albert Einstein won the Nobel Prize for this, so I guess it's not that easy.

    Regardless, if you put a tiny pollen particle in a Petri dish filled with pure water the fact that the particle will wander all the way from one side of the dish to the other is not evidence that there are water currents in the dish. It's just random motion.
    Well, you left out that the complexity gets greater due to the number of variables with their own randomness and lag.

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    Re: No One Can Understand My Global Warming Argument

    On the is scale...

    When a butterfly flaps it's wings...

    Chaos theory is in play. That's your randomness.

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    Re: No One Can Understand My Global Warming Argument

    Quote Originally Posted by bongsaway View Post
    Are you saying there's no need to change our burning of fossil fuels until they run out?
    Well no need to change because of CO2, we will get off of fossil fuels when we have something better.

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    Re: No One Can Understand My Global Warming Argument

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    Well no need to change because of CO2, we will get off of fossil fuels when we have something better.
    We have several things that are better and cleaner now but that doesn't mean we'll change. Too much money still to be made from fossil fuels, pollution from them is secondary to some, money comes first.
    When I stop answering you, there's a reason.......repeat, When I stop answering you, there's a reason.

  10. #10
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    Re: No One Can Understand My Global Warming Argument

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Case View Post
    Oh! So it's what Tim P. said

    Here's a screen print uh 4 actually from an Excel random chart generator.



    It's set up to always start at about the same place but then it's a "Drunk Walk"
    of +(RAND()-0.5)*0.15 for each year and a plot of a running 5 year median.

    Well anyway the four results were from around 100 trials. Some trials go
    right off the chart and then a few look amazingly like the world temperature
    time lines we've all seen. In this case HADCRUT 3 or 4 was used, doesn't
    much make a difference.

    So? Could temperature over the last 170 year be more random than anything
    else?
    Very good!

    Now, why can't the climate alarmists understand this argument?

    If I don't answer your post it's because you lost the debate.

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