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Perspectives on Temperature

A new paper indicates “present” temperatures are the coldest of the last 4 to 7 thousand years in Fennoscandia (Finland). A 2016 paper indicates this region hasn’t warmed (net) since the 1930s. [link] …
 
A perspective. Try looking through the small end of the telescope for a change.
 
Surface Detail said:
There is no reference number, nor does there need to be one - that's exactly the point. While it is difficult to define the temperature of the Earth as a whole, it is perfectly possible to determine how much its temperature has risen or fallen, i.e. the temperature anomaly.

Just think about it. Say you have 100 thermometers dotted around the globe - what is the average temperature of the Earth? The mean of these temperature readings? No, not necessarily, because the thermometers may not be in representative locations. Now imagine that, over time, the mean temperature indicated by the thermometers rises by 1 C. We still don't know for sure what the absolute temperature of the Earth is, but do know that its temperature has risen by about 1 C. This is the temperature anomaly.
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But if conditions like regional Patterns shift, The change still, would not reflect a change of the whole.
 
Simpletruther said:
But if conditions like regional Patterns shift, The change still, would not reflect a change of the whole.
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Yes, shifting regional patterns do mean that the result isn't exact, which is why I said about 1 C. But this error can be reduced by having a reasonable spread of measurements around the globe.
 
Surface Detail said:
Yes, shifting regional patterns do mean that the result isn't exact, which is why I said about 1 C. But this error can be reduced by having a reasonable spread of measurements around the globe.
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It seems it would be just as likely that patterns shift as it would that the locations are no representative.

In other words it seems we could have as much confidence in the absolute temperature as we would the change. Why is the absolute more uncertain?
 
[h=2]Dead Dingoes Don’t Lie, But Climate Scientists Do[/h][FONT=&quot]Posted on December 26, 2019 by tonyheller[/FONT]
“There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.”
― Mark Twain
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Like the US, Australia has a very hot past which is incompatible with climate crisis hysteria. This compels government scientists to find creative ways to make the past heat disappear.

In the US, the primary technique used to hide the hot past is to cool older temperatures, and warm more recent ones.
NASA-US-1999-2019-1.gif


But in Australia, the primary technique is to hide older temperatures.

Australian government “scientists say” that observers in the past simply weren’t smart enough to know whether the thermometer they were reading was in the sun or in the shade.
The global standard for temperature measurement includes the use of a Stevenson screen, which is a white louvred box allowing ventilation and ensuring thermometers inside are never exposed to the sun.
A Stevenson screen was not installed in Bourke until August 1908, meaning temperature readings from before that could be inflated by as much as 2C.
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Continue reading →
 
[h=2]UAH Global Temperature Update for December 2019: +0.56 deg. C[/h]January 3rd, 20202019 was the third warmest year (+0.44 deg. C) in the 41 year satellite record, after 2016 (+0.52 deg. C) and 1998 (+0.48 deg. C).
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December, 2019 was +0.56 deg. C, statistically unchanged from the November value of +0.55 deg. C.
The yearly rankings over the 41-year satellite-based temperature record shows 2019 as the third warmest, behind 2016 and 1998.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.13 C/decade (+0.11 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).
 
Jack Hays said:
[h=2]UAH Global Temperature Update for December 2019: +0.56 deg. C[/h]January 3rd, 20202019 was the third warmest year (+0.44 deg. C) in the 41 year satellite record, after 2016 (+0.52 deg. C) and 1998 (+0.48 deg. C).
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December, 2019 was +0.56 deg. C, statistically unchanged from the November value of +0.55 deg. C.
The yearly rankings over the 41-year satellite-based temperature record shows 2019 as the third warmest, behind 2016 and 1998.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.13 C/decade (+0.11 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).
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Third warmest. Man temps are really going up fast due to global warming
 
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[h=1]The Ocean Warms By A Whole Little[/h][FONT=&quot]Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [see update at the end] How much is a “Whole Little”? Well, it’s like a whole lot, only much, much smaller. There’s a new paper out. As usual, it has a whole bunch of authors, fourteen to be precise. My rule of thumb is that “The quality of research varies…
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[h=1]While NOAA/NASA claims 2019 as the “second warmest year ever”, other data shows 2019 cooler than 2005 for USA.[/h][FONT=&quot]Today, at the big 100 year anniversary shindig of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) there was a press release session that featured NOAA and NASA GISS talking about how their climate data says that the world in 2019 was the second warmest ever. Here is their slideshow presentation, released today: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings/20200115.pdf In my opinion, the…
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[h=1]Gavin’s Falsifiable Science[/h][FONT=&quot]Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Gavin Schmidt is a computer programmer with the Goddard Institute of Space Sciences (GISS) and a noted climate alarmist. He has a Ph.D. in applied mathematics. He’s put together a twitter thread containing what he sees as some important points of the “testable, falsifiable science that supports a human cause…
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[h=1]A Surfeit Of Temperatures[/h][FONT=&quot]Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach My last two posts, one on Gavin’s claims and the other on the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, have gotten me to thinking about the various groups producing historical global surface temperature estimates. Remember that the global surface temperature is the main climate variable that lots of folks are hyperventilating…
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Jack Hays said:
[FONT="][URL="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/14/the-ocean-warms-by-a-whole-little/"]
argo-float-operation.png
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[h=1]The Ocean Warms By A Whole Little[/h][FONT="][FONT=inherit]Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [see update at the end] How much is a “Whole Little”? Well, it’s like a whole lot, only much, much smaller. There’s a new paper out. As usual, it has a whole bunch of authors, fourteen to be precise. My rule of thumb is that “The quality of research varies…[/FONT]
[FONT=inherit][URL="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/14/the-ocean-warms-by-a-whole-little/"]Continue reading →[/URL][/FONT]
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And this works in reverse as well. If we have an uncertainty of ±0.003°C and we only want an uncertainty of ±0.03°C, we can use one-hundredth of the number of measurements.

This means that IF we can measure the ocean temperature with an uncertainty of ±0.003°C with 4,000 Argo floats, we could measure it to one decimal less uncertainty, ±0.03°C, with a hundredth of that number, forty floats.

Does anyone think that’s possible? Just forty Argo floats, that’s about one for each area the size of the United States … measuring the ocean temperature of that area down 2,000 metres to within plus or minus three-hundredths of one degree C? Really?
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Yeah, that bleeding obvious stuff really makes the claims look deceptive.
 
Jack Hays said:
[FONT="][URL="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/19/a-surfeit-of-temperatures/"]
berkeley-earth-city-and-global-trends.png
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[h=1]A Surfeit Of Temperatures[/h][FONT="][FONT=inherit]Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach My last two posts, one on Gavin’s claims and the other on the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, have gotten me to thinking about the various groups producing historical global surface temperature estimates. Remember that the global surface temperature is the main climate variable that lots of folks are hyperventilating…[/FONT]
[FONT=inherit][URL="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/19/a-surfeit-of-temperatures/"]Continue reading →[/URL][/FONT]
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I was reading something from GISS FAQ page,
Data.GISS: GISTEMP -- Frequently Asked Questions
Roughly speaking, the uncertainty of annual global means after 1960 is about ±0.05°C,
for seasonal and monthly means that number increases to ±0.1°C and ±0.17°C, respectively.
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They clearly say that the monthly means have an uncertainty of ±0.17°C, but then they say that the annual mean
has an uncertainty of ±0.05°C.
I am a bit confused, the annual mean is simply an average of the 12 monthly means,
I am left to wonder how the uncertainty improved by averaging 12 less certain numbers together.
 
longview said:
I was reading something from GISS FAQ page,
Data.GISS: GISTEMP -- Frequently Asked Questions

They clearly say that the monthly means have an uncertainty of ±0.17°C, but then they say that the annual mean
has an uncertainty of ±0.05°C.
I am a bit confused, the annual mean is simply an average of the 12 monthly means,
I am left to wonder how the uncertainty improved by averaging 12 less certain numbers together.
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A good question.
 
North America as a continent has been cooling since 1998 (Gan et al., 2019), with no significant net change since 1982.
North-America-Hiatus-1982-to-2014-Gan-2019.jpg

[h=6]Image Source: Gan et al., 2019[/h]The Southern Ocean – 14% of the Earth’s surface – has been been cooling since 1979 (Zhang et al., 2019).
Southern-Ocean-Cooling-Zhang-2019.jpg

[h=6]Image Source: Zhang et al., 2019[/h]Large regions of the Northern Hemisphere – especially in Asia – have been cooling since 1990 (Kretschmer et al., 2018).
Warming-and-Cooling-Northern-Hemisphere-1990-2015-Kretschner-2018.jpg

[h=6]Image Source: Kretschmer et al., 2018[/h]Other than these regions, the entire globe has been warming…in line with what would be expected with global warming.
 
NOAA Temperature Adjustments Are Not Credible

Posted on January 19, 2020 by tonyheller

Raw data shows that US autumn/winter temperatures have been decreasing for a century.



The raw data is consistent with increase in snow cover, but after massive tampering by NOAA, they turned the cooling trend into a warming, trend, and made the recent record high snow years the warmest on record. Their data is not in the least credible.


[FONT=&quot]Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Comments[/FONT]
 
[FONT=&quot]Climate sensitivity[/FONT]
[h=1]Top and Bottom of the Atmosphere[/h][FONT=&quot]Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Some days I learn a lot. Today was one of them. Let me start at the start. Back in 1987 in a paper entitled ‘The Role of Earth Radiation Budget Studies in Climate and General Circulation Research“, a prescient climate scientist yclept Veerabhadran Ramanathan pointed out that the poorly-named “greenhouse…
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[h=2]Cooling the Past: Made Easy for Paul Barry[/h]February 6, 2020 By jennifer 4 Comments
[FONT=&quot]It is not disputed that Blair Trewin under the supervision of David Jones (both working at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology) remodel all the historical temperature data generating trends and statistics that look quite different from the actual … [Read more...]
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