Florence's Records Should Be Noted

calamity · Sep 17, 2018

NC rainfall amount breaks the previous record by 10", a 40% increase from 1999 record set during Hurricane Floyd.

Rainfall records: Five spots have preliminarily topped North Carolina's tropical cyclone rainfall record: Swansboro (33.90 inches), Hofmann Forest (29.48 inches), Sunny Point (27.44 inches), Nature Conservancy (27.12 inches) and Newport/Morehead City (25.20 inches). The previous record was 24.06 inches from Hurricane Floyd in 1999.

River flooding exceeds what the gauges can measure.

"Devastating flooding" occurs across the county once the river reaches 23 feet, according to the National Weather Service. The river gauge in this spot is no longer working, but serious flooding should continue this week.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-17-florence-flooding-north-south-carolina

I wonder if there is some larger climate trend out there which can give us an idea as to what is happening

ttwtt78640 · Sep 17, 2018

calamity said:
NC rainfall amount breaks the previous record by 10", a 40% increase from 1999 record set during Hurricane Floyd.

River flooding exceeds what the gauges can measure.

I wonder if there is some larger climate trend out there which can give us an idea as to what is happening

Nope, you have simply noted the total rainfall difference between two NC named storms. If (when?) the next NC named storm is not record breaking will that then make you doubt that climate change (warming?) is happening or, better yet, is surely reversing?

Threegoofs · Sep 17, 2018

ttwtt78640 said:
Nope, you have simply noted the total rainfall difference between two NC named storms. If (when?) the next NC named storm is not record breaking will that then make you doubt that climate change (warming?) is happening or, better yet, is surely reversing?

Brilliant post of the day.

Can’t argue with that logic.

calamity · Sep 17, 2018

ttwtt78640 said:
Nope, you have simply noted the total rainfall difference between two NC named storms. If (when?) the next NC named storm is not record breaking will that then make you doubt that climate change (warming?) is happening or, better yet, is surely reversing?

ttwtt78640 · Sep 17, 2018

calamity said:

I am absolutely serious - you presented data for two named storms affecting NC and then made the logical leap that latter storm was record breaking because of a 'climate trend'. The difference between two named weather events is not, in any way, indicative of a 'climate trend'. I simply pointed out that adding third (the next named storm to hit NC) will not be said to show a 'climate trend' if (when?) it fails to exceed the rainfall total of the preceding two (that you so carefully selected?).

Show me the 'trend' in the following NC named storm data:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Carolina_hurricanes

biglawnmower · Sep 17, 2018

calamity said:
NC rainfall amount breaks the previous record by 10", a 40% increase from 1999 record set during Hurricane Floyd.

River flooding exceeds what the gauges can measure.

I wonder if there is some larger climate trend out there which can give us an idea as to what is happening

oh boy. better get out or hazmat suits. the global warming is coming to get us according to the alt left.

brace ourselves for the impact!

lol (laugh out loud)

Threegoofs · Sep 17, 2018

I hear global warming is over because fall is coming.

I can prove it. In two months, it will be pretty cold here.

I’ll do some calculations to prove it too- and I’ll use Kelvin to make it sound sciency.

calamity · Sep 17, 2018

biglawnmower said:
oh boy. better get out or hazmat suits. the global warming is coming to get us according to the alt left.

brace ourselves for the impact!

lol (laugh out loud)

Thanks for letting us all know what "lol" stands for. We had no clue until you showed up :roll:

Dittohead not! · Sep 17, 2018

calamity said:
NC rainfall amount breaks the previous record by 10", a 40% increase from 1999 record set during Hurricane Floyd.

River flooding exceeds what the gauges can measure.

I wonder if there is some larger climate trend out there which can give us an idea as to what is happening

And thus you have kicked off yet another discussion of global warming.

Was Floyd due to global warming?

Maybe.

Here's an analogy: Say you have a die that you think is loaded. It has been altered to roll a six one time out of three as opposed to the natural one in six.

You roll the die, and it comes up a six. Does that prove it's loaded? No.
You roll it again, and it comes up a three. Does that prove it's not loaded? No again.

You roll the die a thousand times, and it comes up six 350 times. Now you can conclude that the die is, indeed loaded.

The prediction is that global warming will increase the number and severity of hurricanes and other severe weather. There has been severe weather in the past. A record breaking hurricane does not prove global warming. A milder one does not disprove it.

After ten or so years of records on hurricanes, we might be able to draw a conclusion of whether that particular die is loaded or not.

But, those who are determined to deny global warming regardless of evidence will never, but never ever admit that they are wrong.

calamity · Sep 17, 2018

ttwtt78640 said:
I am absolutely serious - you presented data for two named storms affecting NC and then made the logical leap that latter storm was record breaking because of a 'climate trend'. The difference between two named weather events is not, in any way, indicative of a 'climate trend'. I simply pointed out that adding third (the next named storm to hit NC) will not be said to show a 'climate trend' if (when?) it fails to exceed the rainfall total of the preceding two (that you so carefully selected?).

Show me the 'trend' in the following NC named storm data:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Carolina_hurricanes

Except record breaking rainfall was exactly what the climate geeks predicted would occur. And, shattering the old record by 140% is pretty significant.

ttwtt78640 · Sep 17, 2018

calamity said:
Except record breaking rainfall was exactly what the climate geeks predicted would occur. And, shattering the old record by 140% is pretty significant.

Hmm... has this global 'climate trend' shown up outside of NC? If so, then show us the storm rainfall totals that so indicate. This named storm was rather unique in that it was 'trapped' for days between two high pressure centers (systems?) which caused it to linger longer near the coast (gathering more moisture) than a typical named storm does much like that of Harvey over Houston, TX did.

calamity · Sep 17, 2018

ttwtt78640 said:
Hmm... has this global 'climate trend' shown up outside of NC? If so, then show us the storm rainfall totals that so indicate. This named storm was rather unique in that it was 'trapped' for days between two high pressure centers (systems?) which caused it to linger longer near the coast (gathering more moisture) than a typical named storm does much like that of Harvey over Houston, TX did.

Two recent storms in two successive years both do an unusual thing and your response is, "nothing new here." :roll: Seriously?

hanger4 · Sep 17, 2018

calamity said:
NC rainfall amount breaks the previous record by 10", a 40% increase from 1999 record set during Hurricane Floyd.

River flooding exceeds what the gauges can measure.

I wonder if there is some larger climate trend out there which can give us an idea as to what is happening

Hurricanes have been happening since before recorded history.

A couple factoids to ponder, if hurricanes are supposed to be big, stronger and more frequent because of the warmer waters of the Atlantic how come the data doesn't back that up ??

And, if the warmer waters make hurricanes stronger why did hurricane Florence drop from a cat 4 to cat 1 as passed over the even warmer waters of the Gulf Stream ??

EnigmaO01 · Sep 17, 2018

calamity said:
Except record breaking rainfall was exactly what the climate geeks predicted would occur. And, shattering the old record by 140% is pretty significant.

And two 1000 year floods in Elliot, Maryland almost back to back it can at least make one consider there is a cause and effect relationship considering the odds of that happening are astronomically small.

ttwtt78640 · Sep 17, 2018

calamity said:
Two recent storms in two successive years both do an unusual thing and your response is, "nothing new here." :roll: Seriously?

Two named storms out of how many total named storms?

EnigmaO01 · Sep 17, 2018

hanger4 said:
Hurricanes have been happening since before recorded history.

A couple factoids to ponder, if hurricanes are supposed to be big, stronger and more frequent because of the warmer waters of the Atlantic how come the data doesn't back that up ??

And, if the warmer waters make hurricanes stronger why did hurricane Florence drop from a cat 4 to cat 1 as passed over the even warmer waters of the Gulf Stream ??

Because strong hurricanes can be their own worst enemies by pulling up colder water due to their strength if there is deep enough water as they pass over it.

There are a lot of factors that come into play than just warm water. Sheer, nearby high pressure etc. etc.

hanger4 · Sep 17, 2018

EnigmaO01 said:
Because strong hurricanes can be their own worst enemies by pulling up colder water due to their strength if there is deep enough water as they pass over it.

There are a lot of factors that come into play than just warm water. Sheer, nearby high pressure etc. etc.

The Gulf Stream around 60 milea wide and 2500 to 4000 ft deep. Tell me more ??

ttwtt78640 · Sep 17, 2018

calamity said:
Two recent storms in two successive years both do an unusual thing and your response is, "nothing new here." :roll: Seriously?

You probably think that within a classroom of 30 students it would be rare if two of them shared the same date of birth.

calamity · Sep 17, 2018

ttwtt78640 said:
Two named storms out of how many total named storms?

Two successive years out of how many years when this didn't happen?

Threegoofs · Sep 17, 2018

ttwtt78640 said:
Hmm... has this global 'climate trend' shown up outside of NC? If so, then show us the storm rainfall totals that so indicate. This named storm was rather unique in that it was 'trapped' for days between two high pressure centers (systems?) which caused it to linger longer near the coast (gathering more moisture) than a typical named storm does much like that of Harvey over Houston, TX did.

You know that the whole ‘global climate trend’ thing is called that because it’s a definite trend, it involves the entire climate, and it’s clearly a global phenomenon, right?

I mean, most people, even if they aren’t attuned to thinking scientifically, can understand that warmer waters will tend to result in stronger and wetter storms, since the warmth is clearly contributing more energy to a tropical storm.

Not only that, but I can also let you know that it’s almost universally agreed that this increase in ocean warmth is anthropogenic in origin. This tends to come as a surprise to those who were educated in Texas, but I swear to God... it’s true.

VanceMack · Sep 17, 2018

The rhetoric being used is identical to the rhetoric following Katrina which 'predicted a massive increase in storms and intensity...only to see the opposite occur.

But THIS time....THIS time its gonna happen. Global warming....its the cause...and its all Trumps fault. Sweartagawd!!!

ttwtt78640 · Sep 17, 2018

Threegoofs said:
You know that the whole ‘global climate trend’ thing is called that because it’s a definite trend, it involves the entire climate, and it’s clearly a global phenomenon, right?

I mean, most people, even if they aren’t attuned to thinking scientifically, can understand that warmer waters will tend to result in stronger and wetter storms, since the warmth is clearly contributing more energy to a tropical storm.

Not only that, but I can also let you know that it’s almost universally agreed that this increase in ocean warmth is anthropogenic in origin. This tends to come as a surprise to those who were educated in Texas, but I swear to God... it’s true.

If that is so then using all NC named storm data would show this 'clear trend' over time - yet it does not. I'm not trying to use the OP supplied data to disprove any 'climate trends' - I'm simply saying that it does not prove any such thing no matter what the OP "wonders about".

marke · Sep 17, 2018

calamity said:
NC rainfall amount breaks the previous record by 10", a 40% increase from 1999 record set during Hurricane Floyd.

River flooding exceeds what the gauges can measure.

I wonder if there is some larger climate trend out there which can give us an idea as to what is happening

This is bad news for Americans who thought the billions of dollars poured into climate research would calm the weather.

Threegoofs · Sep 17, 2018

ttwtt78640 said:
If that is so then using all NC named storm data would show this 'clear trend' over time - yet it does not. I'm not trying to use the OP supplied data to disprove any 'climate trends' - I'm simply saying that it does not prove any such thing no matter what the OP "wonders about".

Clear trends are difficult to detect for chaotic systems with limited numbers of storms. One needs many decades to see it

And it looks like we have-

Changes in Hurricanes | National Climate Assessment

Dittohead not! · Sep 17, 2018

marke said:
This is bad news for Americans who thought the billions of dollars poured into climate research would calm the weather.

Really?

How many people thought that researching the climate would result in calmer weather?

Since that is totally illogical, they must be Trump supporters.

Florence's Records Should Be Noted

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