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The same data, plotted from 1998 to the present together with the least squares trend line on woodfortrees.org:
View attachment 67240604
The slope of the trend line is +0.075 C per decade. QED.
If you mean that we can't deliberately cause a lightning storm in a specific area, you are correct.
However, if you mean "human activity cannot have any detectable impact on the global climate," you're dead wrong. Just look at CFCs; there is no doubt that human emissions of CFCs caused a deterioration of ozone in the atmosphere, and we have evidence now that after banning CFCs that the ozone is slowly recovering.
There are all sorts of detectable global impacts of human activity -- warmer oceans; permafrost starting to melt; coral reefs dying; sea levels rising faster than in the recent past; increased water vapor... the list goes on. There is no doubt that human activity impacts the climate, even if we can't cause a snowstorm over Death Valley on command.
As I said, negligible, and heading down. Thanks for your help.
+0.075 C per decade is not negligible. It has about 60 times as rapid as the natural cooling over the 7000 years to about 1850. Opposite sign though.
By 2019 that trend line will be negative.
:lol: You don't really understand trend lines, do you?
I can assure you the trend line won't be negative by 2019. That would be virtually impossible.
But man can, and does, change the climate. Changing climate changes the normal weather.
So, now come back with an absurd statement about controlling the weather.
Yes, it has. Quite a bit, in fact.Nothing has been proven in global warming and ozone depletion theories and hypotheses.
If you mean "climate change is an existential threat to all humanity and all organisms," you are correct... and despite the hyperbolic mischaracterizations of the actual science by the deniers, no one makes such extreme claims.The world is not in danger of weather getting out of control after so many supposed millions of years of the existence of life on earth.
Or, they have spent decades trying to head off disasters, which are starting to happen.The alarmists have adopted a narrative, have assembled some data manipulated to support the narrative, and preached their conclusions to the whole world as if they are God seeking to save the people.
And we saw it in Harvey, and Maria, and Florence, and lots of other named storms: They are larger, slower, wetter, more energetic, higher category for longer, and more damaging, because of climate change.
Yes, it has. Quite a bit, in fact.
There is no question that CO2 is a greenhouse gas; there is no question that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere was stable for thousands of years; there is no question that human actions have increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere; there is no question that atmospheric, ocean and land surface temperatures have increased.
We have tons of evidence that CFCs damaged the ozone, and that banning CFCs has led to a slow recovery:
In fact, here's about 1500 pages summarizing the scientific evidence of climate change, circa 2013. Have fun with that.
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf
If you mean "climate change is an existential threat to all humanity and all organisms," you are correct... and despite the hyperbolic mischaracterizations of the actual science by the deniers, no one makes such extreme claims.
If you mean "climate change is already making storms worse, floods worse, droughts more frequent and more intense, drying out forests which leads to larger and hotter fires, reducing glacial extent which in turn reduces water supplies and further exacerbates drought" and so on, then you are incorrect. All of this is happening, and it's going to get worse.
We should also keep in mind that 40% of the world's population live in coastal areas, which will see some of the biggest impacts (like we're seeing with Florence right now), and a lot of those people are poor. Climate change won't wipe out humanity, but it is going to cause a lot of damage.
Or, they have spent decades trying to head off disasters, which are starting to happen.
We saw it this summer, with heat waves breaking records and covering areas where heat waves were unheard of (by the way, heat waves kill more people than any other natural disaster). We see it with the shrinking, and possible disappearance, of summer ice in the Arctic. We see it with escalating ice mass losses in Greenland. And we saw it in Harvey, and Maria, and Florence, and lots of other named storms: They are larger, slower, wetter, more energetic, higher category for longer, and more damaging, because of climate change.
Hmm... has this global 'climate trend' shown up outside of NC? If so, then show us the storm rainfall totals that so indicate. This named storm was rather unique in that it was 'trapped' for days between two high pressure centers (systems?) which caused it to linger longer near the coast (gathering more moisture) than a typical named storm does much like that of Harvey over Houston, TX did.
The climate models show a 2-3% increase in water-holding capability for storms. These are 2018 numbers, and they increase. For example, in another 10 years, this will be 4-5%. The models have been extremely accurate, and if anything, have been too conservative.
OK, but do the actual named storms hold/dump more water? I simply asked for real world examples - are rainfall totals of most (all?) named storms actually increasing over time or are we just cherry picking a few outliers to use as 'showing a trend'?
The answer is an emphatic YES. Physically, the atmosphere can hold more water when temperatures are higher. There are other factors at play. Warmer oceans also make storms more intense. The third factor is that higher sea levels make storm surges more intense. Here's a link.
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2017/08/the-link-between-hurricanes-and-climate-change/
Storms are neither more frequent nor more intense.
[FONT=&][/FONT]
The Washington Post’s Slander on Hurricanes and Climate Change
[FONT=&]By James D. Agresti The Washington Post editorial board has accused President Trump of being “complicit” in Hurricane Florence, because “he plays down humans’ role in increasing the risks” of “extreme weather,” and “he continues to dismantle efforts to address those risks.” Such weather, they say, is fueled by manmade global warming that creates “unusually…
[/FONT]
3 days ago September 16, 2018 in Climate News.
[FONT="]Likewise, the [URL="https://lab.weathermodels.com/tropical/"]datasets[/URL] graphed below show that the global number and intensity of cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes have been roughly level for the past four-to-five decades. These data were originally published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in 2011 and updated this year:[/FONT]
[FONT="][URL="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/clip_image0021.jpg"][/URL][/FONT]
[FONT="][URL="http://wx.graphics/tropical/global_major_freq.png"][/URL][/FONT]
[FONT="][URL="http://wx.graphics/tropical/global_running_ace.png"][/URL][/FONT]
[FONT="]Records of Atlantic hurricanes—which stretch back for more than a century—also show stagnant trends. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [URL="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/"]recently assessed[/URL] these data and concluded that “the historical Atlantic hurricane record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.”[/FONT]
Yes. Warming virtually stopped in 1998. The focus on "warmest years" in the early part of the 21st century is a way to draw attention away from the fact that warming stopped. Warming -> Stasis -> Cooling.
Storms are neither more frequent nor more intense.
[FONT=&][/FONT]
The Washington Post’s Slander on Hurricanes and Climate Change
[FONT=&]By James D. Agresti The Washington Post editorial board has accused President Trump of being “complicit” in Hurricane Florence, because “he plays down humans’ role in increasing the risks” of “extreme weather,” and “he continues to dismantle efforts to address those risks.” Such weather, they say, is fueled by manmade global warming that creates “unusually…
[/FONT]
3 days ago September 16, 2018 in Climate News.
[FONT="]Likewise, the [URL="https://lab.weathermodels.com/tropical/"]datasets[/URL] graphed below show that the global number and intensity of cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes have been roughly level for the past four-to-five decades. These data were originally published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in 2011 and updated this year:[/FONT]
[FONT="][URL="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/clip_image0021.jpg"][/URL][/FONT]
[FONT="][URL="http://wx.graphics/tropical/global_major_freq.png"][/URL][/FONT]
[FONT="][URL="http://wx.graphics/tropical/global_running_ace.png"][/URL][/FONT]
[FONT="]Records of Atlantic hurricanes—which stretch back for more than a century—also show stagnant trends. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [URL="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/"]recently assessed[/URL] these data and concluded that “the historical Atlantic hurricane record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.”[/FONT]
Because the selected points are not arbitrary.
deleted 'lack of intelligence' mantra...
So, in other words, "climate change" is "climate change"... That's exactly my point..."Climate change" is not a circular definition. It refers to two distinct concepts -- "climate" and "change." It refers to the ways that *cough* climate is changing over time. It can mean cooling, it can mean warming, it can refer to oceans expanding, glaciers growing or retreating, it can refer to the effects of volcanoes....
Yes there is... I question that...There is no question that the term "climate change" has very specific and useful meanings.
There is no such thing as GHGs... And by "pre-industrial eras", I suppose you mean from the beginning of human history until sometime before the 1760s? The problem is that sets of time are arbitrarily chosen to show the desired agenda-driven results for "climate change"...At the risk of speaking for someone else: "Normal" refers to climate and weather in pre-industrial eras, before humans put the whammy on the environment with GHG emissions and other impacts.
So, in other words, "climate change" is "climate change"... Exactly my point...Climate: the average weather worldwide.
Change: becoming different in some way.
Climate change: The Earth is getting warmer on average, and the warming is changing local climates, some in predictable ways, others in not so predictable ways.
What period of time? Why is that period of time so special compared to other periods of time? How do we know that that period of time is "normal" when compared to all of past time?Normal generally refers to the average over a period of time.
:roll:Just because a mob of deluded secularists think men are creating climate change weather dangers is no reason to go crazy and join them, no matter how large the mob.
:roll:So, in other words, "climate change" is "climate change"... That's exactly my point...
You deny it. That's not the same thing.Yes there is... I question that...
Please. There is no rational doubt whatsoever that gases trap heat in the atmosphere.There is no such thing as GHGs...
*bzzt* wrong. It refers to the Holocene prior to 1750 (i.e. roughly 11,000 BCE to 1750), which was a fairly stable period. In fact, temperatures were cooling slightly between 3000 BCE to 1750, when they went through the roof.And by "pre-industrial eras", I suppose you mean from the beginning of human history until sometime before the 1760s?
So, in other words, "climate change" is "climate change"... Exactly my point...
What period of time? Why is that period of time so special compared to other periods of time? How do we know that that period of time is "normal" when compared to all of past time?