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The Next Five Years Will be Hot

EnigmaO01 said:
Interesting. We got over 100 F. for a couple of weeks in Indiana several years back. I know for a fact that never happened in all of my 60 years.
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Summer daytime temps have not changed much here. But, winter temps certainly have.
 
late said:
Saying it's going to get hotter is a pretty safe bet.
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There could come a point where enough ice melts in the polar regions where the ocean currents could get altered, which would make it actually colder in some areas of the planet. I.e. northern Germany that is at the same latitude as Alaska, would no longer have the moderating effect of the Atlantic and become as frigid as Alaska.
 
EnigmaO01 said:
Interesting. We got over 100 F. for a couple of weeks in Indiana several years back. I know for a fact that never happened in all of my 60 years.
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It is possible to get a localized high pressure that hangs around, but does not change the broader average much.
 
EnigmaO01 said:
There could come a point where enough ice melts in the polar regions where the ocean currents could get altered, which would make it actually colder in some areas of the planet. I.e. northern Germany that is at the same latitude as Alaska, would no longer have the moderating effect of the Atlantic and become as frigid as Alaska.
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I live in Maine, which could get Canadian weather.

When I was a kid, you could have it go below zero, that doesn't happen now. But if the ocean currents shut down, we could get -20F or even -30F. I lived in northern New England for a while, that's too freaking cold.
 
late said:
I live in Maine, which could get Canadian weather.

When I was a kid, you could have it go below zero, that doesn't happen now. But if the ocean currents shut down, we could get -20F or even -30F. I lived in northern New England for a while, that's too freaking cold.
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I love northern New England and would love to relocate there! Might do it at some point.
 
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longview said:
It is possible to get a localized high pressure that hangs around, but does not change the broader average much.
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It covered an area much larger than localized. I believe it was much of the midwest. And yeah localized weather in itself does not mean global warming. (I.e. the stupid local rednecks that comment, "Where's that global warming" when we get a cold snap. You never hear a peep out of them when we get a heat wave though.)

But it was so historical and so unprecedented in our lifetimes that we took notice.
 
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EnigmaO01 said:
It covered an area much larger than localized. I believe it was much of the midwest. And yeah localized weather in itself does not mean global warming. (I.e. the stupid local rednecks that comment, "Where's that global warming" when we get a cold snap. You never hear a peep out of them when we get a heat wave though.)

But it was so historical and so unprecedented in our lifetimes that we took notice.
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We have had those as well, but they tend to average out.
It does not help that TV weather people play up things as historic that maybe are not.
For most states, the record highs were in the 1930's, We have had some hot summers,
but on average they were not as hot as they were in the past.
Play with that NOAA site, the numbers will surprise you.
The vast majority of what is called AGW, has been warming in the evenings and winters.
Compare and contrast the earlier maximum temperature graph with the DEC, Jan, Fed minimum
temperature graph.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/natio...ase=10&firsttrendyear=1931&lasttrendyear=2018
the .25F per decade warming in the winter evenings, is substantial compared to the zero trend of maximum summer temperatures.
To be fair increases in minimum temperatures has a down side also, with some species of chill hour crops.
 
calamity said:
Buckle up, crank up the A/C and prepare for a wild ride. We are about to get a bad taste of our own medicine.



Translation: Even though we were in a cold spell, it was still hot as hell. Now, we are entering a warm spell. So, it will be even hotter.
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OMG... Such claims supported by the Aral sea?

LOL...

LOL...

These people are jokers.

LOL...

LOL...

Only idiots believe these fools.
 
calamity said:
Buckle up, crank up the A/C and prepare for a wild ride. We are about to get a bad taste of our own medicine.



Translation: Even though we were in a cold spell, it was still hot as hell. Now, we are entering a warm spell. So, it will be even hotter.
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I don't think so. 2018 is already well on the way to being cooler than 2017. And the cooling will likely continue for years.

[FONT=&quot][/FONT]
[h=1]Approaching 'grand solar minimum' could cause global cooling[/h][FONT=&quot]There’s a lot of evidence mounting that solar cycle 25 will usher in a new grand solar minimum. Since about October 2005, when the sun’s magnetic activity went into a sharp fall, solar activity has been markedly lower, with solar cycle 24 being the lowest in over 100 years. Cycle 24 is part of a…
[/FONT]
March 18, 2018 in Solar.
 
Lord of Planar said:
OMG... Such claims supported by the Aral sea?
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:roll:

Try reading the actual paper next time. They set up a prediction model based on transfer operators. To test it, they did some hindcasts -- selected data from previous time periods, ran the model, and checked how it compared to the actual recorded conditions. This is all discussed in the summary article, linked by the OP.

That article, by the way, does not cite the Aral Sea's condition as proof. It's just a photo used in the article, doing what photos like that usually do... provide an illustration. The very suggestion doesn't make sense. How does a photo of the Aral Sea's current condition prove that a prediction model will be right about temperatures over the net 5-10 years?

So basically, you didn't read the article, you didn't read the paper, you just looked at a photo used in the summary article and presumed that was intended as proof, even though that doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Ooooookay

Better luck next time.
 
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calamity said:
lol...June through August daytime temps

This is where the focus needs to be
169049main_1880_2006_gms.jpg
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The graph Calamity shows, "Global-Mean Surface" Temperature Anomaly (°C)"
is a plot of averages. Averages lose a lot of information. The average of 25 and
75 is 50 and the average of 51 and 49 is also 50 as is the average of 1 and 99.
Three wildly different data sets; same average. Well really if you wan't to know
how hot it got, then you should measure how hot it got. Reporting averages is
lazy science which avoids dealing with the absolute variation in data.

What's going on is averages of night and day temperatures are then averaged up
to provide a seasonal value and then those values are averaged from the tropics
to the poles which is then averaged over a baseline of several decades and then
annual anomalies to that baseline are reported as if they really mean something.

And then, we are told, "This is where the focus should be."
 
calamity said:
Buckle up, crank up the A/C and prepare for a wild ride. We are about to get a bad taste of our own medicine.



Translation: Even though we were in a cold spell, it was still hot as hell. Now, we are entering a warm spell. So, it will be even hotter.
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LOL...now, when it turns out to be wrong, what then? I suspect that there will be some new voodoo science explaining why they weren't wrong, but we just misunderstood the prediction.
 
itsforthekids said:
LOL...now, when it turns out to be wrong, what then? I suspect that there will be some new voodoo science explaining why they weren't wrong, but we just misunderstood the prediction.
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They've nailed it thus far.

6_4_15_Brian_NOAAHiatusAnalysis_1050_797_s_c1_c_c.jpg
 
Visbek said:
:roll:

Try reading the actual paper next time. They set up a prediction model based on transfer operators. To test it, they did some hindcasts -- selected data from previous time periods, ran the model, and checked how it compared to the actual recorded conditions. This is all discussed in the summary article, linked by the OP.

That article, by the way, does not cite the Aral Sea's condition as proof. It's just a photo used in the article, doing what photos like that usually do... provide an illustration. The very suggestion doesn't make sense. How does a photo of the Aral Sea's current condition prove that a prediction model will be right about temperatures over the net 5-10 years?

So basically, you didn't read the article, you didn't read the paper, you just looked at a photo used in the summary article and presumed that was intended as proof, even though that doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Ooooookay

Better luck next time.
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The condition of the Aral sea is the same reason as the Colorado River. To use such an illustration means their target audience is ignorant, or that they are stupid. Either way, such things should be cast aside for their lack of integrity, intelligence, or ignorance regarding the topic.
 
Lord of Planar said:
The condition of the Aral sea is the same reason as the Colorado River. To use such an illustration means their target audience is ignorant, or that they are stupid. Either way, such things should be cast aside for their lack of integrity, intelligence, or ignorance regarding the topic.
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Stick to the script they gave you, know what I mean?
 
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