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Oceanic Disaster: The death of the Reefs

Jack Hays said:
Sorry, but that's beside the point.
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It is exactly the point. You insinuated that because coral bleaching has happened before, it is okay.
 
"This new approach to reconstructing bleaching has allowed us to look back beyond the observational record, to reconstruct 400 years of bleaching along the Great Barrier Reef...

However, since the 1800s, both the number of such events and the number of corals involved have increased, indicating they may not be able to cope well with sustained increases in temperature, and are possibly reaching a tipping point...

In the face of rapid and complex environmental change, coral reefs are not certain to survive."

https://theconversation.com/the-gre...-least-400-years-but-its-getting-worse-101691
 
Jack Hays said:
It is OK. And man isn't causing it.
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That's rather dishonest, Jack. :roll:

According to the United Nations Environment Programme, between 2014 and 2016 the longest recorded global bleaching events killed coral on an unprecedented scale. In 2016, bleaching of coral on the Great Barrier Reef killed between 29 and 50 percent of the reef's coral.[3][4][5] In 2017, the bleaching extended into the central region of the reef.[6][7] The average interval between bleaching events has halved between 1980 and 2016.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coral_bleaching
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One trembles to enter into this debate, but few points to be made:1- John McCain said of the theory, that if humans are causing climate change that is destructive we should adopt certain policies. If not, many of the policies suggested are good things for other reasons. 2- there have been skeptics for all sorts of health and environment issues, from tobacco to smog to acid rain to the ozone layer. No doubt in response to incomplete evidence the regulations may have overreached, but that’s the way government tends to work and why we need conservatives to keep hanging around. 3- As far as I understand things, the portion of the GOP that is skeptical/denialist/whatever is the only major conservative party in the world to not accept what most scientists tell us. 4- even major oil companies share in climate change concerns, to judge from a couple of sites visited. 5- finally, what was the beef with the non-legal, non-mandatory guidelines the Paris agreement called for? 6- finally-finally, why doesn’t the GOP commission a study to evaluate evidence, make reports, have hearings, etc?
 
Verax said:
And?



The science points to an ecological disaster.
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"May suggest." The comment is unrelated to any of the research in the paper, and reminds me of the ritual quotes from Lenin with which every Soviet scholar would open a paper.
 
Jack Hays said:
"May suggest." The comment is unrelated to any of the research in the paper, and reminds me of the ritual quotes from Lenin with which every Soviet scholar would open a paper.
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"Ignore the parts of the paper that don't support my narrative". :lamo

The Earth is rapidly warming, the oceans are warming, rapid ocean warming kills coral. Being that bleaching has been happening during relatively stable periods it's not hard to predict what unnatural rapid warming will do, especially being that we're watching it happen with our own lying eyes.
 
Verax said:
"Ignore the parts of the paper that don't support my narrative". :lamo

The Earth is rapidly warming, the oceans are warming, rapid ocean warming kills coral. Being that bleaching has been happening during relatively stable periods it's not hard to predict what unnatural rapid warming will do, especially being that we're watching it happen with our own lying eyes.
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The quote does not refer to anything in the paper. It is political ritual.
 
Jack Hays said:
The quote does not refer to anything in the paper. It is political ritual.
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Are the results also "political ritual"? :lamo

We have had a limited understanding of centennial scale bleaching dynamics, time scales that are key for determining the future survival of corals reefs in a changing world via adaptive and acclimation processes. Here we show that corals bleached pre-industrially, but subsequently, bleaching has intensified. Importantly, reconstructions here are based on tolerant coral species and conservative threshold values, meaning that frequency and prevalence of bleaching experienced by other species may have been higher. While the processes of acclimatization and adaptation indicate that, given enough time, the coral holobiont may be able to adapt to new, higher thermal levels (Bay et al., 2017), post 1850 increases in bleaching frequency and prevalence suggest corals may struggle to survive in the future as conditions continue to rapidly change. Our results thus place recently observed increases in GBR coral bleaching into a wider temporal context; bleaching has been occurring on the GBR at least during the last 4 centuries, and has increased 10% in prevalence since the 1790s. Over the coming century, rapid environmental change will include multiple-stressors (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007; Hofmann and Schellnhuber, 2009; Bay et al., 2017), and the increase in prevalence and frequency indicate that we may be coming to a tipping point beyond which survival in uncertain.
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Verax said:
Are the results also "political ritual"? :lamo
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calamity said:
:lamo

You do this for fun. I hope.
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This speculative statement is a content-free political incantation, intended to ward off the twitter mob.

Over the coming century, rapid environmental change will include multiple-stressors (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007; Hofmann and Schellnhuber, 2009; Bay et al., 2017), and the increase in prevalence and frequency indicate that we may be coming to a tipping point beyond which survival in uncertain.
 
Jack Hays said:
This speculative statement is a content-free political incantation, intended to ward off the twitter mob.

Over the coming century, rapid environmental change will include multiple-stressors (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007; Hofmann and Schellnhuber, 2009; Bay et al., 2017), and the increase in prevalence and frequency indicate that we may be coming to a tipping point beyond which survival in uncertain.
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Multiple stressors:

one:
Since 1901, the planet’s surface has warmed by 0.7–0.9° Celsius (1.3–1.6° Fahrenheit) per century, but the rate of warming has nearly doubled since 1975 to 1.5–1.8° Celsius (2.7–3.2° Fahrenheit) per century, according to the international State of the Climate in 2017 report.

The 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998, and the four warmest years on record have all occurred since 2014. Looking back to 1988, a pattern emerges: except for 2011, as each new year is added to the history, it becomes one of the top 10 warmest on record at that time, but it is ultimately replaced as the “top ten” window shifts forward in time.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature
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Two:
Ocean acidification is the ongoing decrease in the pH of the Earth's oceans, caused by the uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. An estimated 30–40% of the carbon dioxide from human activity released into the atmosphere dissolves into oceans, rivers and lakes. To achieve chemical equilibrium, some of it reacts with the water to form carbonic acid.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification
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Three, four and more:
Coral reef bleaching is caused by various anthropogenic and natural variations in the reef environment including sea temperature, solar irradiance, sedimentation, xenobiotics, subaerial exposure, inorganic nutrients, freshwater dilution, and epizootics. Coral reef bleaching is the result of the die-off of certain coral.

What does bleaching of coral reefs mean
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Jack Hays said:
All of which has been seen multiple times before. The sky is not falling.
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:roll:

"The 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998, and the four warmest years on record have all occurred since 2014. Looking back to 1988, a pattern emerges: except for 2011, as each new year is added to the history, it becomes one of the top 10 warmest on record at that time, but it is ultimately replaced as the 'top ten' window shifts forward in time."
 
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