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Wildfire Acreage up 25% Nationally

Media_Truth

Media_Truth

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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/02/wil...ionally-as-california-battles-new-blazes.html

Wildfire acreage up 25% nationally as California battles new blazes, prepares for 'very dangerous heat wave'
...
California Gov. Jerry Brown announced late Monday that more wildfire acreage had burned statewide so far this year than during the same period last year.

Climate change is wreaking havoc with the US West. A longer, dryer warm season, has resulted in more wildfire burn acreage for the last several years.

https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warmi...ic-wildfires-climate-change.html#.W2iw2ChKjIU

Western-Wildfires_UCUSA.jpg
 
NIFC is a good source for wildfire information.

https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm

Year-to-date statistics
2018 (1/1/18 - 8/6/18) Fires: 38,832 Acres: 5,137,050
2017 (1/1/17 - 8/6/17) Fires: 40,007 Acres: 5,899,245
2016 (1/1/16 - 8/6/16) Fires: 35,476 Acres: 3,500,646
2015 (1/1/15 - 8/6/15) Fires: 37,389 Acres: 6,074,389
2014 (1/1/14 - 8/6/14) Fires: 34,697 Acres: 1,798,190
2013 (1/1/13 - 8/6/13) Fires: 28,666 Acres: 2,494,700
2012 (1/1/12 - 8/6/12) Fires: 38,870 Acres: 4,452,184
2011 (1/1/11 - 8/6/11) Fires: 47,729 Acres: 6,263,298
2010 (1/1/10 - 8/6/10) Fires: 38,467 Acres: 2,056,365
2009 (1/1/09 - 8/6/09) Fires: 58,749 Acres: 4,468,421
2008 (1/1/08 - 8/6/08) Fires: 54,921 Acres: 3,740,817

10-year average Year-to-Date
2008-2017 Fires: 40,985 Acres: 4,011,542
 
The national forest's have been mismanaged for years and that has helped caused
the current fire conditions.


Mismanaged, overcrowded forests provide fuel to historic California wildfires, experts say
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/mismanaged-overcrowded-forests-provide-fuel-to-historic-california-wildfires-experts-say

Forest Mismanagement Causing Increasingly Catastrophic Wildfires, Devastating Impacts on Environment
https://naturalresources.house.gov/newsroom/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=398389

Cal Fire Chief Blames Wildfires on Mismanaged Forests (This story is from last year. August 28, 2017)
https://www.courthousenews.com/cal-fire-chief-blames-wildfires-mismanaged-forests/
 
mike2810 said:
NIFC is a good source for wildfire information.

https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm

Year-to-date statistics
2018 (1/1/18 - 8/6/18) Fires: 38,832 Acres: 5,137,050
2017 (1/1/17 - 8/6/17) Fires: 40,007 Acres: 5,899,245
2016 (1/1/16 - 8/6/16) Fires: 35,476 Acres: 3,500,646
2015 (1/1/15 - 8/6/15) Fires: 37,389 Acres: 6,074,389
2014 (1/1/14 - 8/6/14) Fires: 34,697 Acres: 1,798,190
2013 (1/1/13 - 8/6/13) Fires: 28,666 Acres: 2,494,700
2012 (1/1/12 - 8/6/12) Fires: 38,870 Acres: 4,452,184
2011 (1/1/11 - 8/6/11) Fires: 47,729 Acres: 6,263,298
2010 (1/1/10 - 8/6/10) Fires: 38,467 Acres: 2,056,365
2009 (1/1/09 - 8/6/09) Fires: 58,749 Acres: 4,468,421
2008 (1/1/08 - 8/6/08) Fires: 54,921 Acres: 3,740,817

10-year average Year-to-Date
2008-2017 Fires: 40,985 Acres: 4,011,542
Click to expand...

Does Jerry Brown smoke pot? Does he even know how to contact his own forestry service for accurate details?
 
Wildfire Acreage up 25% Nationally

Really? I'd say its down about 80% since the 1930s:


figure16-1.JPG
 
marke said:
Does Jerry Brown smoke pot? Does he even know how to contact his own forestry service for accurate details?
Click to expand...

Don't know. Pot is legal now in CA, right.:lol:


I do know that the increased fuel load (overgrown forests, large grass/brush fuels, hot/dry temps and winds can lead to large fires. It also doesn't help with the building of houses in high fire prone areas. CA has done a great deal of that.
 
Don't believe the hype. According to the UK's Royal Society, wildfires have declined in recent decades.


Remember when we were told that wildfires would increase due to global warming? Never mind.

This paper was just published in the Royal Society Biological Sciences journal. The takeaways: “Global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago.” Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a…

2 weeks ago July 25, 2018 in Wildfires.

This paper was just published in the Royal Society Biological Sciences journal. The takeaways:
“Global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago.”
Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world
wildfire-occurence-720x249.jpg
Figure 2. Wildfire occurrence (a) and corresponding area burnt (b) in the European Mediterranean region for the period 1980–2010. Source: San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. [37].​
AbstractWildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth’s surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Yet many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. However, important exceptions aside, the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends.
Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning, remain insufficiently quantified to be examined. Global predictions for increased fire under a warming climate highlight the already urgent need for a more sustainable coexistence with fire. The data evaluation presented here aims to contribute to this by reducing misconceptions and facilitating a more informed understanding of the realities of global fire.This article is part of themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’.
The paper: Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2016 Jun 5;371(1696). pii: 20150345. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2015.0345.
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/1696/20150345

 
mike2810 said:
Don't know. Pot is legal now in CA, right.:lol:


I do know that the increased fuel load (overgrown forests, large grass/brush fuels, hot/dry temps and winds can lead to large fires. It also doesn't help with the building of houses in high fire prone areas. CA has done a great deal of that.
Click to expand...

Yes. The "hot/dry temps" is one of the factors. As the UCUSA article points out, the wildfire season was at 5 months in the 1970s, and today it is 7+ months. Also since the 1970s, temperatures are up 1.9 deg F. I live in Colorado. and "high fire prone areas" can be just about anywhere.
 
Jack Hays said:
Don't believe the hype. According to the UK's Royal Society, wildfires have declined in recent decades.


Remember when we were told that wildfires would increase due to global warming? Never mind.

This paper was just published in the Royal Society Biological Sciences journal. The takeaways: “Global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago.” Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a…

2 weeks ago July 25, 2018 in Wildfires.

This paper was just published in the Royal Society Biological Sciences journal. The takeaways:
“Global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago.”
Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world
wildfire-occurence-720x249.jpg
Figure 2. Wildfire occurrence (a) and corresponding area burnt (b) in the European Mediterranean region for the period 1980–2010. Source: San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. [37].​
AbstractWildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth’s surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Yet many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. However, important exceptions aside, the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends.
Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning, remain insufficiently quantified to be examined. Global predictions for increased fire under a warming climate highlight the already urgent need for a more sustainable coexistence with fire. The data evaluation presented here aims to contribute to this by reducing misconceptions and facilitating a more informed understanding of the realities of global fire.This article is part of themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’.
The paper: Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2016 Jun 5;371(1696). pii: 20150345. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2015.0345.
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/1696/20150345
Click to expand...

If you're going to quote from the Royal Academy, then quote it directly. We don't need the biased High Schooler Watt's interpretation. And he is about as biased as they come. This chart is from the actual article:

spending_on_wildfires.jpg

I've mentioned elsewhere that numbers of wildfires are down in recent years, but the acreage burned is up. If that alone isn't a revelation, the amount of money spent on fires is way up. Ask yourself this question - do you think this trend will continue?
 
Jack Hays said:
Don't believe the hype. According to the UK's Royal Society, wildfires have declined in recent decades.


Remember when we were told that wildfires would increase due to global warming? Never mind.

This paper was just published in the Royal Society Biological Sciences journal. The takeaways: “Global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago.” Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a…

2 weeks ago July 25, 2018 in Wildfires.

This paper was just published in the Royal Society Biological Sciences journal. The takeaways:
“Global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago.”
Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world
wildfire-occurence-720x249.jpg
Figure 2. Wildfire occurrence (a) and corresponding area burnt (b) in the European Mediterranean region for the period 1980–2010. Source: San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. [37].​
AbstractWildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth’s surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Yet many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. However, important exceptions aside, the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends.
Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning, remain insufficiently quantified to be examined. Global predictions for increased fire under a warming climate highlight the already urgent need for a more sustainable coexistence with fire. The data evaluation presented here aims to contribute to this by reducing misconceptions and facilitating a more informed understanding of the realities of global fire.This article is part of themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’.
The paper: Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2016 Jun 5;371(1696). pii: 20150345. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2015.0345.
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/1696/20150345
Click to expand...

I retired from wildland fire. Worked in it for 30 years. I don't buy into all the "hype". There are a lot of factors on why the fires are behaving the way they are and why the damage is high in some areas.
 
Media_Truth said:
If you're going to quote from the Royal Academy, then quote it directly. We don't need the biased High Schooler Watt's interpretation. And he is about as biased as they come. This chart is from the actual article:

View attachment 67237571

I've mentioned elsewhere that numbers of wildfires are down in recent years, but the acreage burned is up. If that alone isn't a revelation, the amount of money spent on fires is way up. Ask yourself this question - do you think this trend will continue?
Click to expand...

Please note the paper is linked in my post. And no, area burned is down. That's right in the abstract.
Amount spent is a policy decision, likely related, in the US at least, to increased building in vulnerable areas.
 
Media_Truth said:
Yes. The "hot/dry temps" is one of the factors. As the UCUSA article points out, the wildfire season was at 5 months in the 1970s, and today it is 7+ months. Also since the 1970s, temperatures are up 1.9 deg F. I live in Colorado. and "high fire prone areas" can be just about anywhere.
Click to expand...

One issue is humans building in high fire prone areas. They build without applying Firewise principles. In my small town the mayor and council are reluctant to pass any Firewise type codes. Homeowners need to do their part to minimize the risk of a wildfire destroying the home or other property.
 
mike2810 said:
I retired from wildland fire. Worked in it for 30 years. I don't buy into all the "hype". There are a lot of factors on why the fires are behaving the way they are and why the damage is high in some areas.
Click to expand...

Thank you for your service. Our nephew is with the Great Basin Smokejumpers based in Boise.
 
Jack Hays said:
Please note the paper is linked in my post. And no, area burned is down. That's right in the abstract.
Amount spent is a policy decision, likely related, in the US at least, to increased building in vulnerable areas.
Click to expand...

Area burned is not down, at least since 1991, according to their graph. Area burned in the US is up also. I would not trust data from the 1930s, as measuring techniques were not nearly as good (aerial photography, satellite, etc).
 
Media_Truth said:
Area burned is not down, at least since 1991, according to their graph. Area burned in the US is up also. I would not trust data from the 1930s, as measuring techniques were not nearly as good (aerial photography, satellite, etc).
Click to expand...

From the Royal Society abstract:

Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape. . . .
 
Last edited:
mike2810 said:
One issue is humans building in high fire prone areas. They build without applying Firewise principles. In my small town the mayor and council are reluctant to pass any Firewise type codes. Homeowners need to do their part to minimize the risk of a wildfire destroying the home or other property.
Click to expand...

I was in Colorado Springs during the wildfires of 2012. The Springs, El Paso County and Fremont Counties, were declared a federal disaster area. I agree that homeowners need to do their part, but with the high winds and dry conditions, huge pine trees were igniting like matchsticks, one after another. I actually think that today's mountain homes are, for the most part, are built better to withstand fires. Steel roofs and stucco siding make a huge difference. But with the intensity of the fires of 2012, hardly any change to practical building code would have helped.

As far as the "hype". With a 1.9 deg F higher temperature, and the resulting extended wildfire season, it stands to reason that there is more risk today. I actually believe that financial damages would be a lot worse, if it weren't for better building practices, wildfire education, etc.
 
Media_Truth said:
I was in Colorado Springs during the wildfires of 2012. The Springs, El Paso County and Fremont Counties, were declared a federal disaster area. I agree that homeowners need to do their part, but with the high winds and dry conditions, huge pine trees were igniting like matchsticks, one after another. I actually think that today's mountain homes are, for the most part, are built better to withstand fires. Steel roofs and stucco siding make a huge difference. But with the intensity of the fires of 2012, hardly any change to practical building code would have helped.

As far as the "hype". With a 1.9 deg F higher temperature, and the resulting extended wildfire season, it stands to reason that there is more risk today. I actually believe that financial damages would be a lot worse, if it weren't for better building practices, wildfire education, etc.
Click to expand...

It is the older homes that have not been upgraded that are more at risk than new ones built with metal roofs, etc. It is also the property owners who do nothing to reduce the fuels around the homes. I agree that during a major conflagration the ember wash can be overwhelming that no home is really safe.

I don't disagree the fire seasons have gotten longer. I noticed it during my career. I also know that long term drought conditions in the West add to the issue. The large 1000 hour fuels become more in play during droughts when winter moisture is not adequate to bring the moisture up.
 
mike2810 said:
It is the older homes that have not been upgraded that are more at risk than new ones built with metal roofs, etc. It is also the property owners who do nothing to reduce the fuels around the homes. I agree that during a major conflagration the ember wash can be overwhelming that no home is really safe.

I don't disagree the fire seasons have gotten longer. I noticed it during my career. I also know that long term drought conditions in the West add to the issue. The large 1000 hour fuels become more in play during droughts when winter moisture is not adequate to bring the moisture up.
Click to expand...

My late mother lived in Prescott, AZ for 30 years. Fire department would visit every year to clear brush around her house.
 
Jack Hays said:
My late mother lived in Prescott, AZ for 30 years. Fire department would visit every year to clear brush around her house.
Click to expand...

Prescott and Flagstaff have excellent Firewise programs in place. Some towns like Payson do not. The council seems to think that it should all be voluntary and their role is simple to "educate".
 
Media_Truth said:
I was in Colorado Springs during the wildfires of 2012. The Springs, El Paso County and Fremont Counties, were declared a federal disaster area. I agree that homeowners need to do their part, but with the high winds and dry conditions, huge pine trees were igniting like matchsticks, one after another. I actually think that today's mountain homes are, for the most part, are built better to withstand fires. Steel roofs and stucco siding make a huge difference. But with the intensity of the fires of 2012, hardly any change to practical building code would have helped.

As far as the "hype". With a 1.9 deg F higher temperature, and the resulting extended wildfire season, it stands to reason that there is more risk today. I actually believe that financial damages would be a lot worse, if it weren't for better building practices, wildfire education, etc.
Click to expand...

Fires don't start because of higher temperatures. They start from lightning and man's activities, either accidental or arson. Financial damage is worse because people are building in fire prone areas.

Seattle today had a temperature rise from 60 deg F to 80 deg F yesterday.(20 deg F!). Wildfires didn't start because of that.
 
Into the Night said:
Fires don't start because of higher temperatures. They start from lightning and man's activities, either accidental or arson. Financial damage is worse because people are building in fire prone areas.

Seattle today had a temperature rise from 60 deg F to 80 deg F yesterday.(20 deg F!). Wildfires didn't start because of that.
Click to expand...

Who said they did? Whatever the reason for ignition of a wildfire, control is much more difficult if conditions are dry and arid. More heat equals more dryness. A longer season of heat makes matters worse. As I mentioned, numbers of wildfires in the US are actually down, but acreage burned is way up.
 
Media_Truth said:
Who said they did?
Click to expand...
You did.
Media_Truth said:
Whatever the reason for ignition of a wildfire, control is much more difficult if conditions are dry and arid.
Click to expand...
True. That's the hazard of living in dry and arid environments, such as California.
Media_Truth said:
More heat equals more dryness.
Click to expand...
WRONG. See the Amazon rain forest, the Gulf coast, the State of Hawaii, or any other tropical climate.
Media_Truth said:
A longer season of heat makes matters worse.
Click to expand...
WRONG. See the Amazon rain forest,...etc.
Media_Truth said:
As I mentioned, numbers of wildfires in the US are actually down, but acreage burned is way up.
Click to expand...
WRONG. You are talking about California, not the United States. California in particular has been burning more because they've had a cool wet spring, creating all that grass that dries out later. Compositional error fallacy.
 
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