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Global Cooling Is Under Way

Thankfully anthropogenic climate change is OVER! We've had a mild summer in a place.

QED.

Sarcasm aside, studies of the last inter glacial period, lack the temporal resolution to tell us much about the shift from warming to cooling.
 
Sarcasm aside, studies of the last inter glacial period, lack the temporal resolution to tell us much about the shift from warming to cooling.

They tell us enough. And we have a very good, high resolution view of the CURRENT warming so we know with a really high degree of confidence that is mostly due to human activities.

Well, at least the people who have spent the last several decades studying this and have extensive expertise in this area.
 
They tell us enough. And we have a very good, high resolution view of the CURRENT warming so we know with a really high degree of confidence that is mostly due to human activities.

Well, at least the people who have spent the last several decades studying this and have extensive expertise in this area.

But he did the math!
 
They tell us enough. And we have a very good, high resolution view of the CURRENT warming so we know with a really high degree of confidence that is mostly due to human activities.

Well, at least the people who have spent the last several decades studying this and have extensive expertise in this area.
I am not sure what you think you are arguing, since I did not say that the CURRENT warming was not due to Human activity?
What are you arguing!
 
They tell us enough. And we have a very good, high resolution view of the CURRENT warming so we know with a really high degree of confidence that is mostly due to human activities.

Well, at least the people who have spent the last several decades studying this and have extensive expertise in this area.

I am not sure what you think you are arguing, since I did not say that the CURRENT warming was not due to Human activity?
What are you arguing!

Longview has a valid point here. The proxies we have from that long ago, do indeed, lack a sufficient temporal resolution to compare with today's up to the minute readings, and even bi-daily readings of decades past.

Would you see a 300 year spike in a proxy that is sampled an average of every 600 years?
 
Longview has a valid point here. The proxies we have from that long ago, do indeed, lack a sufficient temporal resolution to compare with today's up to the minute readings, and even bi-daily readings of decades past.

Would you see a 300 year spike in a proxy that is sampled an average of every 600 years?

You guys really think that the current temps somehow will spike downward just as fast as up.

Much like people irrationally think COVID is just going to ‘go away’ and we need to get kids back to school and open up theaters, science tells us that AGW isn’t going away.

For centuries, if not millennia.
 
You guys really think that the current temps somehow will spike downward just as fast as up.

Much like people irrationally think COVID is just going to ‘go away’ and we need to get kids back to school and open up theaters, science tells us that AGW isn’t going away.

For centuries, if not millennia.

Who said that?
What I said was,
"studies of the last inter glacial period, lack the temporal resolution to tell us much about the shift from warming to cooling. "
I.E. we have no idea what the transition from warming to cooling will look like!
 
Who said that?
What I said was,
"studies of the last inter glacial period, lack the temporal resolution to tell us much about the shift from warming to cooling. "
I.E. we have no idea what the transition from warming to cooling will look like!

We actually have some really fine grained "annual" data in the form of varves, palynology, coral records, oxygen isotope data, ice core data, and nice 14-C dating techniques.

Even Emliani in 1972 suggested that anthropogenic global warming could offset the cycles of glaciation (Emiliani, Cesare (1972). "Quaternary Paleotemperatures and the Duration of High-Temperature Intervals." Science 178: 398-401.)

We also know from Broecker et al's work that the cycles (seen in the figure below with some significant degree of resolution) should have a slow "cooling". Doesn't look like we are on that right now and just looking at single cooler year will do you no good.

broecker70.jpg


(Source)

I found this bit of information interesting:

"The ice cores themselves gave convincing evidence of the threat, according to analyses published beginning in the early 1990s. The "climate sensitivity" — the long-term response of temperature to changes in carbon dioxide — could be measured for the last glacial maximum. The answer was in the same range that computer models were predicting for our future, namely, about 3°C of warming, give or take a degree or so, if the CO2 level doubled. It was just the same range that the models got. By 2012 this finding had been confirmed not only for recent ice ages but for many other geological epochs. Evidently the computer modelers had not missed anything important. When scientists arrive at the same numerical result using wholly different methods, it gives them confidence that they are somehow in touch with reality.(53b*)" (SOURCE)

You can read more about all this HERE, it's a pretty cool read.

And, of course, it is more nuanced than simply waving your hand at Vostok and saying "We can't know anything!" (implying that whatever your pet hypothesis is is on as firm a ground as the actual science).
 
We actually have some really fine grained "annual" data in the form of varves, palynology, coral records, oxygen isotope data, ice core data, and nice 14-C dating techniques.

Even Emliani in 1972 suggested that anthropogenic global warming could offset the cycles of glaciation (Emiliani, Cesare (1972). "Quaternary Paleotemperatures and the Duration of High-Temperature Intervals." Science 178: 398-401.)

We also know from Broecker et al's work that the cycles (seen in the figure below with some significant degree of resolution) should have a slow "cooling". Doesn't look like we are on that right now and just looking at single cooler year will do you no good.

broecker70.jpg


(Source)

I found this bit of information interesting:

"The ice cores themselves gave convincing evidence of the threat, according to analyses published beginning in the early 1990s. The "climate sensitivity" — the long-term response of temperature to changes in carbon dioxide — could be measured for the last glacial maximum. The answer was in the same range that computer models were predicting for our future, namely, about 3°C of warming, give or take a degree or so, if the CO2 level doubled. It was just the same range that the models got. By 2012 this finding had been confirmed not only for recent ice ages but for many other geological epochs. Evidently the computer modelers had not missed anything important. When scientists arrive at the same numerical result using wholly different methods, it gives them confidence that they are somehow in touch with reality.(53b*)" (SOURCE)

You can read more about all this HERE, it's a pretty cool read.

And, of course, it is more nuanced than simply waving your hand at Vostok and saying "We can't know anything!" (implying that whatever your pet hypothesis is is on as firm a ground as the actual science).

The problem with such assumptions is that there is a wide range of theories as to how much colder the last ice age was than the pre industrial
temperature. A sensitivity for CO2 would need both the CO2 level, as well as an accurate temperature change.
 
You guys really think that the current temps somehow will spike downward just as fast as up.

Think they will? Not necessarily. I have an open mind, unlike you, which your obvious assessment is that it is impossible.

Why do you have such a closed mind?

This has been explained to you before, buy once again, you don't let go. Like a child.

It isn't that we believe there was a spike that is unseen. It's the fact that if there was a spike, it would be unseen.

Can you comprehend the nuance?
 
Think they will? Not necessarily. I have an open mind, unlike you, which your obvious assessment is that it is impossible.

Why do you have such a closed mind?

This has been explained to you before, buy once again, you don't let go. Like a child.

It isn't that we believe there was a spike that is unseen. It's the fact that if there was a spike, it would be unseen.

Can you comprehend the nuance?

Maybe seeing that temperatures dont spike (I mean... you think the data just randomly happened NOT to pick up anomalous spikes?) is pretty good evidence that the dramatic spike we are seeing now is extremely unusual.
 
The problem with such assumptions is that there is a wide range of theories as to how much colder the last ice age was than the pre industrial
temperature. A sensitivity for CO2 would need both the CO2 level, as well as an accurate temperature change.

The climate sensitivity for CO2 is not solely based on paleoclimate data. There's studies in the follow on to modern volcanic eruptions. But even with paleoclimate data there's a large number of independent proxies all of which converge and relatively narrow value of climate sensitivity for CO2.

This is why science is so powerful: multiple independent lines of evidence converging on a narrow set of results is pretty strong evidence. Even if it is massively inconvenient for some folks today.
 
The climate sensitivity for CO2 is not solely based on paleoclimate data. There's studies in the follow on to modern volcanic eruptions. But even with paleoclimate data there's a large number of independent proxies all of which converge and relatively narrow value of climate sensitivity for CO2.

This is why science is so powerful: multiple independent lines of evidence converging on a narrow set of results is pretty strong evidence. Even if it is massively inconvenient for some folks today.
All the proxy evidence comes down to our ability to make predictions.
The basics are that a 2XCO2 forcing warming of 1.1C, will through climate feedbacks, be amplified to produce an ECS of between 1.5 and 4.5C, eventually.
The latency between temperature perturbation and equalization, ranges from as short as 10.6 years to several hundred years.
Hansen said 60% between 25 to 50 years, and later said 40% within 5 years.
The question is, can it be shown that such a feedback factor exists, within the instrument record?
There is also a question of how the climate system can tell the output of earlier feedbacks from inputs.
 

Carbon emissions are chilling the atmosphere 90km above Antarctica, at the edge of space

While greenhouse gases are warming Earth’s surface, they’re also causing rapid cooling far above us, at the edge of space. In fact, the upper atmosphere about 90km above Antarctica is cooling at a rate ten times faster than the average warming at the planet’s surface.
Continue reading →

While greenhouse gases are warming Earth’s surface, they’re also causing rapid cooling far above us, at the edge of space. In fact, the upper atmosphere about 90km above Antarctica is cooling at a rate ten times faster than the average warming at the planet’s surface.
Our new research has precisely measured this cooling rate, and revealed an important discovery: a new four-year temperature cycle in the polar atmosphere. The results, based on 24 years of continuous measurements by Australian scientists in Antarctica, were published in two papers this month. . . .

Our results show that in the high atmosphere above Antarctica, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases do not have the warming effect they do in the lower atmosphere (by colliding with other molecules). Instead the excess energy is radiated to space, causing a cooling effect.
Our new research more accurately determines this cooling rate. Over 24 years, the upper atmosphere temperature has cooled by about 3℃, or 1.2℃ per decade. That is about ten times greater than the average warming in the lower atmosphere – about 1.3℃ over the past century. . . .

 

Carbon emissions are chilling the atmosphere 90km above Antarctica, at the edge of space

While greenhouse gases are warming Earth’s surface, they’re also causing rapid cooling far above us, at the edge of space. In fact, the upper atmosphere about 90km above Antarctica is cooling at a rate ten times faster than the average warming at the planet’s surface.
Continue reading →

While greenhouse gases are warming Earth’s surface, they’re also causing rapid cooling far above us, at the edge of space. In fact, the upper atmosphere about 90km above Antarctica is cooling at a rate ten times faster than the average warming at the planet’s surface.
Our new research has precisely measured this cooling rate, and revealed an important discovery: a new four-year temperature cycle in the polar atmosphere. The results, based on 24 years of continuous measurements by Australian scientists in Antarctica, were published in two papers this month. . . .

Our results show that in the high atmosphere above Antarctica, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases do not have the warming effect they do in the lower atmosphere (by colliding with other molecules). Instead the excess energy is radiated to space, causing a cooling effect.
Our new research more accurately determines this cooling rate. Over 24 years, the upper atmosphere temperature has cooled by about 3℃, or 1.2℃ per decade. That is about ten times greater than the average warming in the lower atmosphere – about 1.3℃ over the past century. . . .


Ohlookablog
 
[FONT=&][/FONT]
Carbon emissions are chilling the atmosphere 90km above Antarctica, at the edge of space

[FONT=&]While greenhouse gases are warming Earth’s surface, they’re also causing rapid cooling far above us, at the edge of space. In fact, the upper atmosphere about 90km above Antarctica is cooling at a rate ten times faster than the average warming at the planet’s surface.
Continue reading →

[/FONT]
[FONT=&]While greenhouse gases are warming Earth’s surface, they’re also causing rapid cooling far above us, at the edge of space. In fact, the upper atmosphere about 90km above Antarctica is cooling at a rate ten times faster than the average warming at the planet’s surface.[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Our new research has precisely measured this cooling rate, and revealed an important discovery: a new four-year temperature cycle in the polar atmosphere. The results, based on 24 years of continuous measurements by Australian scientists in Antarctica, were published in two papers this month. . . .

[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Our results show that in the high atmosphere above Antarctica, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases do not have the warming effect they do in the lower atmosphere (by colliding with other molecules). Instead the excess energy is radiated to space, causing a cooling effect.[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Our new research more accurately determines this cooling rate. Over 24 years, the upper atmosphere temperature has cooled by about 3℃, or 1.2℃ per decade. That is about ten times greater than the average warming in the lower atmosphere – about 1.3℃ over the past century. . . . [/FONT]
[FONT=&]
[/FONT]

This is already a known fact. The two papers probably tried to get better estimates of the effect. However, the cooling of CO2 in the upper atmosphere is less than the warming effect in the lower atmosphere. Sure, the temperature change is greater, but atmospheric density is so much less, making the heat change so much less as well. The pressure at the base of the mesosphere is only 1/1000th that of the pressure at sea level. Hence, 1/1000th the heat change for the same temperature change.

The upper atmosphere has almost no H2O or CH4. CO2 however is almost as high in ppm levels in the upper atmosphere as it is in the lower. This makes CO2 dominate up there over H2O, and it effectively redirects a large portion of the suns longwave. More CO2, and more solar long wage directed outward. It also radiates from the atmospheric heat, changing the upper atmospheric emmisivity at the CO2 absorption bands.
 
[FONT=&quot]Solar[/FONT]
[h=1]Solar Plasma Temperature is plunging – should we worry?[/h][FONT=&quot]The solar plasma temperature has plunged to a new low for the instrument record. Coincidentally or not, the temperature of the southern hemisphere has also plunged over the last couple of weeks. When do we start worrying?
[/FONT]
 
[FONT="][URL="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/23/solar-plasma-temperature-is-plunging-should-we-worry/"]
image-54.png
[/URL]Solar[/FONT]

[h=1]Solar Plasma Temperature is plunging – should we worry?[/h][FONT="]The solar plasma temperature has plunged to a new low for the instrument record. Coincidentally or not, the temperature of the southern hemisphere has also plunged over the last couple of weeks. When do we start worrying?
[/FONT]

I think something else to point out is how many places has a sudden short weather shift after Thursday's CME the had a glancing blow to the earth. It was just a glancing blow, and only a level 1.
 
[h=2]Astrophysicist Asserts The Globe Will Cool ~1°C During 2020-2053 Due To An Oncoming Grand Solar Minimum[/h]By Kenneth Richard on 27. August 2020
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[h=4]During the last Grand Solar Minimum (17th century), global surface temperatures dipped to the coldest of the last 10,000 years – about 1.4°C colder than today. Dr. Zharkova, an astrophysicist, has determined another imminent drop in solar activity will lead to a 1°C cooling in the coming decades.[/h]From 1645 to 1710, the Sun went into a quiet phase referred to as the Maunder Minimum. During this period, the “surface temperature of the Earth was reduced all over the Globe” (Zharkova, 2020). Cold summers and winters ensued, with glaciers extending onto farmland, sea ice expanding beyond the Arctic, and “frost fairs” on frozen rivers in Europe.

The coldest temperatures and most expansive ice extent (glaciers, permafrost, sea ice) of the last 10,000 years occurred during both this period and the surrounding centuries – often referred to as the Little Ice Age (LIA) (Glazer et al., 2020, Geirsdottir et al., 2019). . . .
 
[h=2]Astrophysicist Asserts The Globe Will Cool ~1°C During 2020-2053 Due To An Oncoming Grand Solar Minimum[/h]By Kenneth Richard on 27. August 2020
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[h=4]During the last Grand Solar Minimum (17th century), global surface temperatures dipped to the coldest of the last 10,000 years – about 1.4°C colder than today. Dr. Zharkova, an astrophysicist, has determined another imminent drop in solar activity will lead to a 1°C cooling in the coming decades.[/h]From 1645 to 1710, the Sun went into a quiet phase referred to as the Maunder Minimum. During this period, the “surface temperature of the Earth was reduced all over the Globe” (Zharkova, 2020). Cold summers and winters ensued, with glaciers extending onto farmland, sea ice expanding beyond the Arctic, and “frost fairs” on frozen rivers in Europe.

The coldest temperatures and most expansive ice extent (glaciers, permafrost, sea ice) of the last 10,000 years occurred during both this period and the surrounding centuries – often referred to as the Little Ice Age (LIA) (Glazer et al., 2020, Geirsdottir et al., 2019). . . .

In my opinion... probably a cooling. I don't think that much, and don't hold your breath because it might not happen.

I would be surprised if the sun cools to Maunder Minima levels, and if it does, the lag will be longer than the three cycles it is predicted to drop to the minimum. It would be some time after 2050 I think if we do see a 1 C drop due to thermal inertia.
 
[h=2]Astrophysicist Asserts The Globe Will Cool ~1°C During 2020-2053 Due To An Oncoming Grand Solar Minimum[/h]By Kenneth Richard on 27. August 2020
Share this...


[h=4]During the last Grand Solar Minimum (17th century), global surface temperatures dipped to the coldest of the last 10,000 years – about 1.4°C colder than today. Dr. Zharkova, an astrophysicist, has determined another imminent drop in solar activity will lead to a 1°C cooling in the coming decades.[/h]From 1645 to 1710, the Sun went into a quiet phase referred to as the Maunder Minimum. During this period, the “surface temperature of the Earth was reduced all over the Globe” (Zharkova, 2020). Cold summers and winters ensued, with glaciers extending onto farmland, sea ice expanding beyond the Arctic, and “frost fairs” on frozen rivers in Europe.

The coldest temperatures and most expansive ice extent (glaciers, permafrost, sea ice) of the last 10,000 years occurred during both this period and the surrounding centuries – often referred to as the Little Ice Age (LIA) (Glazer et al., 2020, Geirsdottir et al., 2019). . . .

Meanwhile, in the real world...

According to the National Weather Service - Key West, July 1st marked the 46th daily warm minimum temperature record that was tied with or set during the first half of 2020. The same office also tweeted on July 2nd, “It also marks the 10th consecutive such record — with this morning's low (84°) on track to tie again.” On the same day, University of Miami meteorologist Brian McNoldy tweeted, “And we now have an 11th consecutive day with a 103°+ heat index in #Miami. #heatwave #flwx.” Much of the country will get to experience extreme heat during 4th of July weekend so be careful. The temperature records are certainly jaw-dropping, but another Tweet by McNoldy caught my eye. He pointed out that the water temperature at Virginia Key, Florida on July 2nd was the hottest recorded at that site (92.5 degrees F).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...e-fuelits-currently-high-octane/#2bc7bc236ea9

All that cooling. Quick! Somebody find me my parka.
 
Speaking of the world...you know, the real one--

2020 May Be Earth's Warmest Year On Record, Even Without an El Niño

Global temperatures in 2020 are on pace for one of the planet's top two warmest years in 141 years of temperature records, according to separate new analyses.

NOAA's State of the Climate report released Monday found that temperatures in the first six months of 2020 were second warmest of any January-June period, trailing only 2016...

What's impressive about the warm start to 2020 is the lack of warmth provided by an El Niño.

Brrr...it downright chilly hee-ah.
 
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