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Global Cooling Is Under Way

[FONT=&quot]Temperature[/FONT]
[h=1]Greenland Is Way Cool[/h][FONT=&quot]Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach As a result of a tweet by Steve McIntyre, I was made aware of an interesting dataset. This is a look by Vinther et al. at the last ~12,000 years of temperatures on the Greenland ice cap. The dataset is available here. Figure 1 shows the full length of the data,…
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[FONT=&quot]Ocean Heat Content[/FONT]
[h=1]The ‘Little Ice Age’ hundreds of years ago is STILL cooling the bottom of Pacific, researchers find[/h][FONT=&quot]From The Daily Mail The Little Ice Age brought colder-than-average temps around the 17th century Researchers say temperatures in deep Pacific lag behind those at the surface As a result, parts of the deep Pacific is now cooling from long ago Little Ice Age By Cheyenne Macdonald For Dailymail.com As much of the ocean responds…
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[h=2]Science: The Deep Ocean Plays A ‘Leading Role’ In Global Warming. It’s Colder Now Than During The 1700s.[/h]By Kenneth Richard on 10. January 2019


[h=2]Authors of a new paper published in the journal Science (Gebbie and Huybers, 2019) insist “the deep ocean ultimately plays a leading role in the planetary heat budget.” The global deep ocean has much less heat today than it had during both the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.
Global-Ocean-Heat-Content-last-2000-years-Gebbie-and-Huybers-2019.jpg

[/h][h=6]Image Source: Gebbie and Huybers, 2019[/h]
 
[FONT=&quot]Temperature[/FONT]
[h=1]Update: The Global Warming Challenge[/h][FONT=&quot]Reposted from theclimatebet.com 2018 year ends on a low note, temperature wise The UAH global mean temperature anomaly data for December 2018 is out: the figure of 0.25°C. The average for the year was 0.23°C, with a maximum anomaly of 0.32°C and a minimum of 0.15°C. None of those figure is much different from the…
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[h=2]Regional Models: 3-10°C Warming In The Next 80 Years. Observations: No Warming In The Last 40-100 Years.[/h]By Kenneth Richard on 14. January 2019


[h=4]There are large regions of the globe where observations indicate there has been no warming (even cooling) during the last decades to century. Climate models rooted in the assumption that fossil fuel emissions drive dangerous warming dismiss these modeling failures and project temperature increases of 3° – 10°C by 2100 for these same regions anyway.[/h]
Hansen-predicts-20-C-hothouse-by-2130-due-to-fossil-fuel-burning.jpg
 
Jack Hays said:
[h=2]Regional Models: 3-10°C Warming In The Next 80 Years. Observations: No Warming In The Last 40-100 Years.[/h]By Kenneth Richard on 14. January 2019


[h=4]There are large regions of the globe where observations indicate there has been no warming (even cooling) during the last decades to century. Climate models rooted in the assumption that fossil fuel emissions drive dangerous warming dismiss these modeling failures and project temperature increases of 3° – 10°C by 2100 for these same regions anyway.[/h]
Hansen-predicts-20-C-hothouse-by-2130-due-to-fossil-fuel-burning.jpg
Click to expand...
Hansen's paper is indeed off the deep end.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3785813/
Burning all fossil fuels would produce a different, practically uninhabitable, planet. Let us first consider a 12 W m−2 greenhouse forcing, which we simulated with 8×CO2.
Click to expand...
He uses the word practically, but is it even practically possible for us to hit 8XCO2?
The increase in CO2 from 280 ppm to 408 ppm (128 ppm) has taken roughly 170 years,
to hit 46% of the first doubling to 560 ppm.
Completing the first doubling (152 ppm) will take roughly 50 years at the peek growth rate so far recorded.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html
The second doubling to 1120 ppm, and additional 560 ppm or 712 ppm above the current level,
would take 237 years at the peek growth rate recorded so far.
To get to the crazy number of 8XCO2 (2240 ppm) by year 2130 is pushing the bounds of possibilities.
The growth rate would have to average over 16 ppm per year, for the next 111 years.
This is against the backdrop that the peek we have seen is a growth rate of 3 ppm per year.
 
[h=4]Four decades of Southern Ocean cooling[/h]After warming from the 1940s to the mid-1970s, the Southern Ocean has been cooling since the late-1970s, which has consequently resulted in an increase in sea ice extent (Fan et al., 2014; Purich et al., 2018; Latif et al., 2017; Turney et al., 2017 ).
In their paper entitled “Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends”, Zhang et al. (2019) suggest that the Southern Ocean cooling was driven by natural processes.
Zhang et al., 2019
[h=6]“Observed Southern Ocean surface cooling and sea-ice expansion over the past several decades are inconsistent with many historical simulations from climate models. Here we show that natural multidecadal variability involving Southern Ocean convection may have contributed strongly to the observed temperature and sea-ice trends.”[/h]
Southern-Ocean-cooling-and-sea-ice-growing-since-1979-Zhang-2019.jpg

Climate models, in contrast, had projected a rapid warming and significant decreases in sea ice extent during the last few decades.
Southern-Ocean-temp-and-sea-ice-modeling-failures-Zhang-2019.jpg

[h=6]Image(s) Source: Zhang et al., 2019[/h]
 
[h=4]The East-Central U.S. has been cooling (about -0.6°C) since the 1950s[/h]Partridge et al., 2018
[h=6]“We present a novel approach to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of regional cooling across the eastern U.S. (commonly called the U.S. warming hole), by defining a spatially explicit boundary around the region of most persistent cooling. The warming hole emerges after a regime shift in 1958 where annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures decreased by 0.46°C and 0.83°C respectively.”[/h]
Holocene-Cooling-Eastern-US-Partridge-2018.jpg

[h=6]Image Source: Partridge et al., 2018[/h]Alter et al., 2017
[h=6]“From 1910- 1949 (pre-agricultural development, pre-DEV) to 1970-2009 (full agricultural development, full-DEV), the central United States experienced large-scale increases in rainfall of up to 35% and decreases in surface air temperature of up to 1°C during the boreal summer months of July and August …which conflicts with expectations from climate change projections for the end of the 21st century (i.e., warming and decreasing rainfall) (Melillo et al., 2014).”[/h]
Holocene-Cooling-United-States-Central-Alter-2017.jpg

[h=6]Image Source: Alter et al., 2017[/h]
 
Jack Hays said:
[h=4]The East-Central U.S. has been cooling (about -0.6°C) since the 1950s[/h]Partridge et al., 2018
[h=6]“We present a novel approach to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of regional cooling across the eastern U.S. (commonly called the U.S. warming hole), by defining a spatially explicit boundary around the region of most persistent cooling. The warming hole emerges after a regime shift in 1958 where annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures decreased by 0.46°C and 0.83°C respectively.”[/h]
Holocene-Cooling-Eastern-US-Partridge-2018.jpg

[h=6]Image Source: Partridge et al., 2018[/h]Alter et al., 2017
[h=6]“From 1910- 1949 (pre-agricultural development, pre-DEV) to 1970-2009 (full agricultural development, full-DEV), the central United States experienced large-scale increases in rainfall of up to 35% and decreases in surface air temperature of up to 1°C during the boreal summer months of July and August …which conflicts with expectations from climate change projections for the end of the 21st century (i.e., warming and decreasing rainfall) (Melillo et al., 2014).”[/h]
Holocene-Cooling-United-States-Central-Alter-2017.jpg

[h=6]Image Source: Alter et al., 2017[/h]
Click to expand...

Ah. So 10% of the 3% of the worlds landmass isn’t holding the pattern that the rest of the globe generally is.

Guess it’s all a Chinese hoax.
 
He loves plying with strawmen.
 
Disempower far-right climate change deniers. Don’t debate with them
Molly Scott Cato
A Ukip MEP has written a shamefully ignorant climate change report for the EU – it should never have happened
Mon 3 Sep 2018 04.00 EDT Last modified on Mon 3 Sep 2018 08.43 EDT

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Ukip agriculture spokesman Stuart Agnew MEP.

After a long, hot summer beset by record temperatures, drought and deadly fires, imagine my shock, on returning to the European parliament, to be confronted with a report that denies the reality of climate change. Given it could influence the allocation of the next round of environment funding under the EU’s Life programme, it is deeply disturbing to see such a report, based on wholly discredited science, wending its way down the corridors of Brussels.

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Some of the claims made by the report’s author, the Ukip MEP Stuart Agnew, are, frankly, pretty hair-raising. For instance, he claims that the effect of CO2 levels on our climate is “negligible”, and that it is “one of agriculture’s greatest friends”. Agnew claims there is a lack of concentration of CO2 and as a result there is no problem for the EU to solve.
 
Threegoofs said:
Disempower far-right climate change deniers. Don’t debate with them
Molly Scott Cato
A Ukip MEP has written a shamefully ignorant climate change report for the EU – it should never have happened
Mon 3 Sep 2018 04.00 EDT Last modified on Mon 3 Sep 2018 08.43 EDT

Shares
1,384
Comments
1,260
Ukip agriculture spokesman Stuart Agnew MEP.

After a long, hot summer beset by record temperatures, drought and deadly fires, imagine my shock, on returning to the European parliament, to be confronted with a report that denies the reality of climate change. Given it could influence the allocation of the next round of environment funding under the EU’s Life programme, it is deeply disturbing to see such a report, based on wholly discredited science, wending its way down the corridors of Brussels.

Advertisement

Some of the claims made by the report’s author, the Ukip MEP Stuart Agnew, are, frankly, pretty hair-raising. For instance, he claims that the effect of CO2 levels on our climate is “negligible”, and that it is “one of agriculture’s greatest friends”. Agnew claims there is a lack of concentration of CO2 and as a result there is no problem for the EU to solve.
Click to expand...

No link. Maybe just made-up stuff.
 
[FONT=&quot]Natural Warming[/FONT]
[h=1]Mao et al 2019 Show an Upcoming 1-Deg C + Decline in Global Land Surface Temperatures by the Early 2100s[/h][FONT=&quot]This is a quick introduction to the 2019 paper The “Ocean Stabilization Machine” May Represent a Primary Factor Underlying the Effect of Global Warming on Climate Change by Mao et al. (pdf here). I believe many visitors here would find interest in their projected decrease (yup, decrease) in global land surface temperatures by the early…
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Warmest year on record in the oceans

Last year was the warmest on record for the heat content of the world’s oceans. Ocean heat content (OHC) has increased by around 370 zettajoules – a billion trillion joules – since 1955. The heat increase in 2018 alone compared to 2017 – about 9 zettajoules – is around 18 times more than the total energy used by everyone on Earth in 2018.

Human-emitted greenhouse gases trap extra heat in the atmosphere. While some of this warms the Earth’s surface, the vast majority – around of 93% – goes into the oceans. About two thirds of this accumulates in the top 700 metres, but some also ends up in the deep oceans. Annual OHC estimates between 1955 and present for both the upper 700m and 700m-2000m depths of the ocean are shown in the figure below.

State of the climate: How the world warmed in 2018 | Carbon Brief
 
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, VOL. 36, MARCH 2019, 249–252

2018 Continues Record Global Ocean Warming


Lijing CHENG∗1, Jiang ZHU1, John ABRAHAM2, Kevin E. TRENBERTH3, John T. FASULLO3, Bin ZHANG4,5, Fujiang YU6, Liying WAN6, Xingrong CHEN6, and Xiangzhou SONG

Adv. Atmos. Sci., 36(3), 249–252,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-8276-x.

The increasing heat-trapping gases emitted by human activities into the atmosphere produce an energy imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation that leads to global heating (Rhein et al., 2013; Trenberth et al., 2014; von Schuckmann et al., 2016). The vast majority of global warming heat ends up deposited in the world’s oceans, and ocean heat content (OHC) change is one of the best—if not the best—metric for climate change (Cheng et al., 2019). In 2018, continued record heat was measured in the Earth’s climate system. In fact, 2018 has set a new record of ocean heating, surpassing 2017, which was the previous warmest year ever recorded (Cheng et al., 2018) (Fig. 1).
Based on the new update of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) ocean analysis (see “Data and methods” section), the total ocean heat anomaly in 2018, relative to a 1981–2010 baseline, and for the upper 2000 m of the world’s oceans, is (19.67 ± 0.83) × 1022 J. This level of thermal energy places 2018 as the hottest year ever recorded. Figure 1 shows the progression of upper 2000 m OHC since the late 1950s. The ranking of the five warmest years (Table 1) makes the past five years the warmest years on record. This supports the provisional announcement by the World Meteorological Organization in November 2018 that “the ocean heat content was the highest or 2nd highest on record”. And the new record in 2018 confirms the perspective (Cheng et al., 2019) that ocean warming continues and has been accelerating since the 1990s (compared with 1960 to the 1980s).

http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00376-019-8276-x.pdf
 
Threegoofs said:
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, VOL. 36, MARCH 2019, 249–252

2018 Continues Record Global Ocean Warming


Lijing CHENG∗1, Jiang ZHU1, John ABRAHAM2, Kevin E. TRENBERTH3, John T. FASULLO3, Bin ZHANG4,5, Fujiang YU6, Liying WAN6, Xingrong CHEN6, and Xiangzhou SONG

Adv. Atmos. Sci., 36(3), 249–252,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-8276-x.

The increasing heat-trapping gases emitted by human activities into the atmosphere produce an energy imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation that leads to global heating (Rhein et al., 2013; Trenberth et al., 2014; von Schuckmann et al., 2016). The vast majority of global warming heat ends up deposited in the world’s oceans, and ocean heat content (OHC) change is one of the best—if not the best—metric for climate change (Cheng et al., 2019). In 2018, continued record heat was measured in the Earth’s climate system. In fact, 2018 has set a new record of ocean heating, surpassing 2017, which was the previous warmest year ever recorded (Cheng et al., 2018) (Fig. 1).
Based on the new update of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) ocean analysis (see “Data and methods” section), the total ocean heat anomaly in 2018, relative to a 1981–2010 baseline, and for the upper 2000 m of the world’s oceans, is (19.67 ± 0.83) × 1022 J. This level of thermal energy places 2018 as the hottest year ever recorded. Figure 1 shows the progression of upper 2000 m OHC since the late 1950s. The ranking of the five warmest years (Table 1) makes the past five years the warmest years on record. This supports the provisional announcement by the World Meteorological Organization in November 2018 that “the ocean heat content was the highest or 2nd highest on record”. And the new record in 2018 confirms the perspective (Cheng et al., 2019) that ocean warming continues and has been accelerating since the 1990s (compared with 1960 to the 1980s).

http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00376-019-8276-x.pdf
Click to expand...

Nic Lewis thinks they screwed up. I wonder whether we're in for a replay of the Resplandy et al debacle?


[h=2]Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?[/h][FONT=&quot]Posted on January 21, 2019 by niclewis | 34 comments[/FONT]
by Nic Lewis
*** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended
There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. My analysis of these issues is followed by a reply from the paper’s authors.
Contrary to what the paper indicates:

  • Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 1971–2010 are closely in line with that assessed in the IPCC AR5 report five years ago
  • Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 2005–2017 are significantly (> 95% probability) smaller than the mean CMIP5 model simulation trend.

Continue reading →
 
Jack Hays said:
Nic Lewis thinks they screwed up. I wonder whether we're in for a replay of the Resplandy et al debacle?


[h=2]Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?[/h][FONT=&quot]Posted on January 21, 2019 by niclewis | 34 comments[/FONT]
by Nic Lewis
*** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended
There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. My analysis of these issues is followed by a reply from the paper’s authors.
Contrary to what the paper indicates:

  • Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 1971–2010 are closely in line with that assessed in the IPCC AR5 report five years ago
  • Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 2005–2017 are significantly (> 95% probability) smaller than the mean CMIP5 model simulation trend.

Continue reading →
Click to expand...

LOL.

A debacle in denier minds only.
 
Threegoofs said:
Warmest year on record in the oceans

Last year was the warmest on record for the heat content of the world’s oceans. Ocean heat content (OHC) has increased by around 370 zettajoules – a billion trillion joules – since 1955. The heat increase in 2018 alone compared to 2017 – about 9 zettajoules – is around 18 times more than the total energy used by everyone on Earth in 2018.

Human-emitted greenhouse gases trap extra heat in the atmosphere. While some of this warms the Earth’s surface, the vast majority – around of 93% – goes into the oceans. About two thirds of this accumulates in the top 700 metres, but some also ends up in the deep oceans. Annual OHC estimates between 1955 and present for both the upper 700m and 700m-2000m depths of the ocean are shown in the figure below.

State of the climate: How the world warmed in 2018 | Carbon Brief
Click to expand...

Building on and confirming the work of Nir Shaviv. Ironically undermining the case for GHG causation.

[h=3]Using the oceans as a calorimeter to quantify ... - Wiley Online Library[/h]
[url]https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007JA012989
[/URL]
by NJ Shaviv - ‎2008 - ‎Cited by 40 - ‎Related articles
Nov 4, 2008 - With this in mind, we use the oceans as a calorimeter to measure the radiative forcing variations associated with the solar cycle. This is ...
 
Jack Hays said:
Building on and confirming the work of Nir Shaviv. Ironically undermining the case for GHG causation.

[h=3]Using the oceans as a calorimeter to quantify ... - Wiley Online Library[/h]
[url]https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007JA012989
[/URL]
by NJ Shaviv - ‎2008 - ‎Cited by 40 - ‎Related articles
Nov 4, 2008 - With this in mind, we use the oceans as a calorimeter to measure the radiative forcing variations associated with the solar cycle. This is ...
Click to expand...

LOL, no.
 
Threegoofs said:
a82aa41d61b940753b00f48a51076f17.jpg
Click to expand...

Building on and confirming the work of Nir Shaviv. Ironically undermining the case for GHG causation.

[h=3]Using the oceans as a calorimeter to quantify ... - Wiley Online Library[/h]
[url]https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007JA012989
[/URL]
by NJ Shaviv - ‎2008 - ‎Cited by 40 - ‎Related articles
Nov 4, 2008 - With this in mind, we use the oceans as a calorimeter to measure the radiative forcing variations associated with the solar cycle. This is ...
 
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