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Thread: Global Cooling Is Under Way

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    Re: Global Cooling Is Under Way

    Temperature
    Greenland Is Way Cool

    Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach As a result of a tweet by Steve McIntyre, I was made aware of an interesting dataset. This is a look by Vinther et al. at the last ~12,000 years of temperatures on the Greenland ice cap. The dataset is available here. Figure 1 shows the full length of the data,…
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    Re: Global Cooling Is Under Way

    Ocean Heat Content
    The ‘Little Ice Age’ hundreds of years ago is STILL cooling the bottom of Pacific, researchers find

    From The Daily Mail The Little Ice Age brought colder-than-average temps around the 17th century Researchers say temperatures in deep Pacific lag behind those at the surface As a result, parts of the deep Pacific is now cooling from long ago Little Ice Age By Cheyenne Macdonald For Dailymail.com As much of the ocean responds…
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    Re: Global Cooling Is Under Way

    Science: The Deep Ocean Plays A ‘Leading Role’ In Global Warming. It’s Colder Now Than During The 1700s.

    By Kenneth Richard on 10. January 2019


    Authors of a new paper published in the journal Science (Gebbie and Huybers, 2019) insist the deep ocean ultimately plays a leading role in the planetary heat budget.” The global deep ocean has much less heat today than it had during both the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.



    Image Source: Gebbie and Huybers, 2019

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    Re: Global Cooling Is Under Way

    Temperature
    Update: The Global Warming Challenge

    Reposted from theclimatebet.com 2018 year ends on a low note, temperature wise The UAH global mean temperature anomaly data for December 2018 is out: the figure of 0.25°C. The average for the year was 0.23°C, with a maximum anomaly of 0.32°C and a minimum of 0.15°C. None of those figure is much different from the…
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    Re: Global Cooling Is Under Way

    Regional Models: 3-10°C Warming In The Next 80 Years. Observations: No Warming In The Last 40-100 Years.

    By Kenneth Richard on 14. January 2019


    There are large regions of the globe where observations indicate there has been no warming (even cooling) during the last decades to century. Climate models rooted in the assumption that fossil fuel emissions drive dangerous warming dismiss these modeling failures and project temperature increases of 3° – 10°C by 2100 for these same regions anyway.


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    Re: Global Cooling Is Under Way

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    Regional Models: 3-10°C Warming In The Next 80 Years. Observations: No Warming In The Last 40-100 Years.

    By Kenneth Richard on 14. January 2019


    There are large regions of the globe where observations indicate there has been no warming (even cooling) during the last decades to century. Climate models rooted in the assumption that fossil fuel emissions drive dangerous warming dismiss these modeling failures and project temperature increases of 3° – 10°C by 2100 for these same regions anyway.


    Hansen's paper is indeed off the deep end.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3785813/
    Burning all fossil fuels would produce a different, practically uninhabitable, planet. Let us first consider a 12 W m−2 greenhouse forcing, which we simulated with 8×CO2.
    He uses the word practically, but is it even practically possible for us to hit 8XCO2?
    The increase in CO2 from 280 ppm to 408 ppm (128 ppm) has taken roughly 170 years,
    to hit 46% of the first doubling to 560 ppm.
    Completing the first doubling (152 ppm) will take roughly 50 years at the peek growth rate so far recorded.
    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html
    The second doubling to 1120 ppm, and additional 560 ppm or 712 ppm above the current level,
    would take 237 years at the peek growth rate recorded so far.
    To get to the crazy number of 8XCO2 (2240 ppm) by year 2130 is pushing the bounds of possibilities.
    The growth rate would have to average over 16 ppm per year, for the next 111 years.
    This is against the backdrop that the peek we have seen is a growth rate of 3 ppm per year.

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    Re: Global Cooling Is Under Way

    Four decades of Southern Ocean cooling

    After warming from the 1940s to the mid-1970s, the Southern Ocean has been cooling since the late-1970s, which has consequently resulted in an increase in sea ice extent (Fan et al., 2014; Purich et al., 2018; Latif et al., 2017; Turney et al., 2017 ).
    In their paper entitled “Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends”, Zhang et al. (2019) suggest that the Southern Ocean cooling was driven by natural processes.
    Zhang et al., 2019
    Observed Southern Ocean surface cooling and sea-ice expansion over the past several decades are inconsistent with many historical simulations from climate models. Here we show that natural multidecadal variability involving Southern Ocean convection may have contributed strongly to the observed temperature and sea-ice trends.”


    Climate models, in contrast, had projected a rapid warming and significant decreases in sea ice extent during the last few decades.

    Image(s) Source: Zhang et al., 2019

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    Re: Global Cooling Is Under Way

    The East-Central U.S. has been cooling (about -0.6°C) since the 1950s

    Partridge et al., 2018
    “We present a novel approach to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of regional cooling across the eastern U.S. (commonly called the U.S. warming hole), by defining a spatially explicit boundary around the region of most persistent cooling. The warming hole emerges after a regime shift in 1958 where annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures decreased by 0.46°C and 0.83°C respectively.”


    Image Source: Partridge et al., 2018

    Alter et al., 2017
    From 1910- 1949 (pre-agricultural development, pre-DEV) to 1970-2009 (full agricultural development, full-DEV), the central United States experienced large-scale increases in rainfall of up to 35% and decreases in surface air temperature of up to 1°C during the boreal summer months of July and August …which conflicts with expectations from climate change projections for the end of the 21st century (i.e., warming and decreasing rainfall) (Melillo et al., 2014).”


    Image Source: Alter et al., 2017

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    Re: Global Cooling Is Under Way

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    The East-Central U.S. has been cooling (about -0.6°C) since the 1950s

    Partridge et al., 2018
    “We present a novel approach to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of regional cooling across the eastern U.S. (commonly called the U.S. warming hole), by defining a spatially explicit boundary around the region of most persistent cooling. The warming hole emerges after a regime shift in 1958 where annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures decreased by 0.46°C and 0.83°C respectively.”


    Image Source: Partridge et al., 2018

    Alter et al., 2017
    From 1910- 1949 (pre-agricultural development, pre-DEV) to 1970-2009 (full agricultural development, full-DEV), the central United States experienced large-scale increases in rainfall of up to 35% and decreases in surface air temperature of up to 1°C during the boreal summer months of July and August …which conflicts with expectations from climate change projections for the end of the 21st century (i.e., warming and decreasing rainfall) (Melillo et al., 2014).”


    Image Source: Alter et al., 2017
    Ah. So 10% of the 3% of the worlds landmass isn’t holding the pattern that the rest of the globe generally is.

    Guess it’s all a Chinese hoax.
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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