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Russia's Warmest Winter Ever

Media_Truth said:
The US is experiencing a fairly cool Spring. The East Coast had a colder-than-average Winter, and the West, after a warm start to the Winter, is now experiencing some colder-than-normal weather. Deniers love to point to this information, and state that we're now cooling. However, one needs to look around the world. According to the NOAA, worldwide, 2018 was the 5th warmest 1st quarter ever. Asia has been very warm, and Russia just experienced it's warmest recorded winter ever.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2016/03/warmest-winter-russian-history

The two lasts winters have been record warm in Russia. Last winter saw many heat records, but this winter have broken them all and is taking its place as the warmest in the history of Russian weather observations.
Click to expand...
If global warming is real, Russia benefits both from the sale of oil causing the crisis, and from the resulting change of temperature. If some of the more extreme maps of world temperature in 2100 are to be believed, Russia will be one of the few habitable areas of the globe left.

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net...nge_map.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20141119150310
 
Steve Case said:
No it's the average Maximum for the month.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the correction. It doesn't help you, though.

So averages are misleading, but... an average maximum for a month is fine?

It isn't misleading to show average temperature maximums from May to October only? Seriously?

Oh, and what do we see when we plot the monthly maximum and minimum for the United States, with trend lines, for the full year? Surprise! We see that both measures show... wait for it... decades of rising temperatures. Looks to me like whoever made that map missed something. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say they missed November, December, January, February, March and April.

us_maximum.jpg

us_minimum.jpg

What about increased precipitation? Surprise! Yep, that's a result of warming. More heat = more moisture in the atmosphere = more precipitation. Ironically, it can also cause or exacerbate droughts in other areas, as the higher temperatures result in less moisture staying on or in the ground, and due to a reduction in mountain snow and ice caps (which typically store water in the winter, and release it to lower elevations in other months).

And yes, this is in fact discussed by the media.
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...2/global-warming-is-increasing-rainfall-rates
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/climate/hurricane-harvey-climate-change.html

Thanks for pointing us to more evidence of warming.
 
Visbek said:
Thanks for the correction. It doesn't help you, though.

So averages are misleading, but... an average maximum for a month is fine?

It isn't misleading to show average temperature maximums from May to October only? Seriously?

Oh, and what do we see when we plot the monthly maximum and minimum for the United States, with trend lines, for the full year? Surprise! We see that both measures show... wait for it... decades of rising temperatures. Looks to me like whoever made that map missed something. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say they missed November, December, January, February, March and April.





What about increased precipitation? Surprise! Yep, that's a result of warming. More heat = more moisture in the atmosphere = more precipitation. Ironically, it can also cause or exacerbate droughts in other areas, as the higher temperatures result in less moisture staying on or in the ground, and due to a reduction in mountain snow and ice caps (which typically store water in the winter, and release it to lower elevations in other months).

And yes, this is in fact discussed by the media.
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...2/global-warming-is-increasing-rainfall-rates
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/climate/hurricane-harvey-climate-change.html

Thanks for pointing us to more evidence of warming.
Click to expand...
Data is always interesting.
Like if we look at the summer months May through Oct for the same period,
We see the warming trend is reduced to only .07F per decade.
US_MAX1901_2017.jpg
And if we look at only the period after 1934, for the warmer months, the trend is zero.
US_Max May-Oct.jpg
What does this mean? Well for one, the observed increases in maximum temperatures was mostly in the winter months,
and mostly before 1934.
The average increase in the warmer months was almost completely from an increase in the minimum temperature.
 
Threegoofs said:
Do you know the average person has one testicle?

Oh, wait.
Click to expand...



Visbek said:
Thanks for the correction. It doesn't help you, though.

So averages are misleading, but... an average maximum for a month is fine?

It isn't misleading to show average temperature maximums from May to October only? Seriously?

...
Click to expand...


How cold it got and how hot it got are what you want to know.
Averaging up the high and low for the day erases that
information. By the same token averaging summer and winter
temperatures is also counterproductive. The 1930s in the
United States saw scorching summers and bitter cold winters
but a comparison of yearly averages shows the '30s not much
warmer than recent decades if at all. And when you look at
the minimums and maximums, it becomes apparent that the
warming is due to warmer winters. Summertime not so much or
not at all. Which is exactly what I've seen here in Wisconsin.
Bitter cold winters with cold snaps ten to twenty below for a
week or more just don't happen anymore. And summers with long
heat waves in the 90s seem to be a thing of the past.
 
Jack Hays said:
Globally, 2017 was cooler than 2016, and 2018 is well on track to be cooler than 2017. With the sun approaching minimum we are facing several years, perhaps decades, of cooling.
Click to expand...

Everyone in climate science was predicting 2018 to be cooler than 2015 and 2016.

1998 extremely warm year due to the amplification effects of a strong El Nino. 1999 cooler than 1998. Science deniers - "See AGW is a fraud, it was cooler this year than last year" (ignoring of course that 1999 was still an unusually warm year). Then for the next several years, those deniers would start any graph at 1998 and claim that it hasn't warmed since. 2015 and 2016, extremely warm years. Science deniers, just like a broken record: "See AGW is a fraud, it was cooler this year than last year" (ignoring of course that 2017 was still an unusually warm year). They will then start every graph with 2016 and claim no more warming. That is until we have another big spike, and their intellectually dishonest cycle will start again.

I actually predicted you would use this flawed argument way back in 2016 when we had our warmest year on record.

Let me let you in on a little secret. No one in science has ever claimed that AGW requires each and every year to be warmer than the previous year, but rather that if you look at it on a 30 year resolution - which is the resolution of most climate models, there will be an undeniable warming trend. Which is exactly what we see.
 
Last edited:
Steve Case said:





How cold it got and how hot it got are what you want to know.
Averaging up the high and low for the day erases that
information. By the same token averaging summer and winter
temperatures is also counterproductive. The 1930s in the
United States saw scorching summers and bitter cold winters
but a comparison of yearly averages shows the '30s not much
warmer than recent decades if at all. And when you look at
the minimums and maximums, it becomes apparent that the
warming is due to warmer winters. Summertime not so much or
not at all. Which is exactly what I've seen here in Wisconsin.
Bitter cold winters with cold snaps ten to twenty below for a
week or more just don't happen anymore. And summers with long
heat waves in the 90s seem to be a thing of the past.
Click to expand...

Most climate models have predicted that AGW would result in much greater warming during the Winter than during the Summer. This is due to a lot of reasons, but primarily it is due to warming leading to greater precipitation and humidity levels during the summer months, which reduces warming. This is also why most models have predicted greater warming at night than during the day, which is what has been happening as well.
 
SouthernDemocrat said:
Most climate models have predicted that AGW would result in much greater warming during the Winter than during the Summer. This is due to a lot of reasons, but primarily it is due to warming leading to greater precipitation and humidity levels during the summer months, which reduces warming. This is also why most models have predicted greater warming at night than during the day, which is what has been happening as well.
Click to expand...

And you know what? I agree with you 100%

So, since most of the warming is in winter, at night, and I might add in the higher latitudes,
why is global warming/climate change a catastrophic disaster in the making?
 
Steve Case said:
And you know what? I agree with you 100%

So, since most of the warming is in winter, at night, and I might add in the higher latitudes,
why is global warming/climate change a catastrophic disaster in the making?
Click to expand...

Once again... the consequences are explained in detail in the IPCC.


Seems like you would want to read it someday, rather than create elaborate arguments on how averages are deceiving and then using averages to prove your point. :roll:
 
Buzz said:
For the new people around here and the denialists that need a reminder... Lord's opinion that "nearly all" monitoring stations are biased warm due to land use changes is based on almost nothing but speculation.
Click to expand...

Have you ever seen the ratings of the stations used?
 
Steve Case said:
And you know what? I agree with you 100%

So, since most of the warming is in winter, at night, and I might add in the higher latitudes,
why is global warming/climate change a catastrophic disaster in the making?
Click to expand...

I see his wheels turning for a response... That he cant quickly think of...

probably pull something out of a blog like Skeptical Science.
 
SouthernDemocrat said:
Everyone in climate science was predicting 2018 to be cooler than 2015 and 2016.

1998 extremely warm year due to the amplification effects of a strong El Nino. 1999 cooler than 1998. Science deniers - "See AGW is a fraud, it was cooler this year than last year" (ignoring of course that 1999 was still an unusually warm year). Then for the next several years, those deniers would start any graph at 1998 and claim that it hasn't warmed since. 2015 and 2016, extremely warm years. Science deniers, just like a broken record: "See AGW is a fraud, it was cooler this year than last year" (ignoring of course that 2017 was still an unusually warm year). They will then start every graph with 2016 and claim no more warming. That is until we have another big spike, and their intellectually dishonest cycle will start again.

I actually predicted you would use this flawed argument way back in 2016 when we had our warmest year on record.

Let me let you in on a little secret. No one in science has ever claimed that AGW requires each and every year to be warmer than the previous year, but rather that if you look at it on a 30 year resolution - which is the resolution of most climate models, there will be an undeniable warming trend. Which is exactly what we see.
Click to expand...

Which is exactly what we have seen. That's over. The warming was misattributed to CO2 when the real driver was an active sun dampening the GCR flow to Earth. You're now looking at years, maybe decades, of cooling.
 
Threegoofs said:
Once again... the consequences are explained in detail in the IPCC.


Seems like you would want to read it someday, rather than create elaborate arguments on how averages are deceiving and then using averages to prove your point. :roll:
Click to expand...

Same question to you, if the warming is mostly at night,
in the winter and at the higher latitudes, why is this a
recipe for a catastrophic disaster requiring everyone to
fundamentally change their life style?
 
Steve Case said:
Same question to you, if the warming is mostly at night,
in the winter and at the higher latitudes, why is this a
recipe for a catastrophic disaster requiring everyone to
fundamentally change their life style?
Click to expand...

For one thing: melting ice and, consequently, rising sea level. Goodbye London, New York, Florida...
 

[h=1]GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index Vs GHCN[/h]Guest analysis by Mark Fife This is the state of the world’s surface temperatures according to NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies from 1880 through 2017. It is indeed a very bleak picture. As I see it, this is showing an exponential rise in temperatures starting at the beginning of the 20th century. Of course,…
Continue reading →
 
Surface Detail said:
For one thing: melting ice and, consequently, rising sea level. Goodbye London, New York, Florida...
Click to expand...

If you mean Greenland and Antarctica are melting, it's well below freezing in those
places nearly everywhere nearly all of the time. Whatever ice mass balance changes
occur they are a function of snowfall and calving ice bergs - those two events being
separated by years, decades & centuries, and has nothing to do with temperature.
 
Steve Case said:
If you mean Greenland and Antarctica are melting, it's well below freezing in those
places nearly everywhere nearly all of the time. Whatever ice mass balance changes
occur they are a function of snowfall and calving ice bergs - those two events being
separated by years, decades & centuries, and has nothing to do with temperature.
Click to expand...

The rate of ice loss from Antarctica and Greenland has nothing to to with temperature? That's beyond parody :roll:
 
Surface Detail said:
The rate of ice loss from Antarctica and Greenland has nothing to to with temperature? That's beyond parody :roll:
Click to expand...

OK, you look up the year round temperature in Antarctica and Greenland to see if it ever gets above freezing.

Here's what I find:

Wikipedia says:

On the coast Antarctic average temperatures are around -10°C (in the warmest parts of Antarctica) and in the elevated inland they average about -55°C in Vostok.[7][8][9]

The highest temperature ever recorded in Antarctica was 17.5 °C (63.5 °F) at Esperanza Base, on the Antarctic Peninsula, on 24 March 2015.[10] The mean annual temperature of the interior is −57 °C (−70.6 °F). The coast is warmer. Monthly means at McMurdo Station range from −26 °C (−14.8 °F) in August to −3 °C (26.6 °F) in January.[11] At the South Pole, the highest temperature ever recorded was −12.3 °C (9.9 °F) on 25 December 2011.[12] Along the Antarctic Peninsula, temperatures as high as 15 °C (59 °F) have been recorded,[clarification needed] though the summer temperature is below 0 °C (32 °F) most of the time. Severe low temperatures vary with latitude, elevation, and distance from the ocean. East Antarctica is colder than West Antarctica because of its higher elevation.[citation needed] The Antarctic Peninsula has the most moderate climate. Higher temperatures occur in January along the coast and average slightly below freezing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Antarctica​

Greenland doesn't have a nice wikipedia entry, so this statement from "World Weather and Climate Information" will have to do:

Greenland is one of the coldest countries in the world and is to a large extent (85%) always covered with ice or snow. The thickness of the ice is approximately 1500 meters (59 055 inch). The temperature is almost the whole year below 0 degrees Celsius (32° Fahrenheit). Only at the coast in the summer period, which is short-lived, temperatures sometimes rise above the freezing point.

https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-Rainfall-Temperature-Sunshine-in-Greenland

​

Here are the two take home statements from the above:

Antarctica:
The Antarctic Peninsula has the most moderate climate. Higher temperatures occur in January along the coast and
average slightly below freezing.

Greenland:
Only at the coast in the summer period, which is short-lived, temperatures sometimes rise above the freezing point.
Click to expand...

You can roll your eyes and claim what I've said it beyond parody but neither Greenland nor Antarctica is melting.
When you read in the popular press about those places melting, you are reading lies, it's just that simple.
 
Steve Case said:
OK, you look up the year round temperature in Antarctica and Greenland to see if it ever gets above freezing.

Here's what I find:

Wikipedia says:

On the coast Antarctic average temperatures are around -10°C (in the warmest parts of Antarctica) and in the elevated inland they average about -55°C in Vostok.[7][8][9]

The highest temperature ever recorded in Antarctica was 17.5 °C (63.5 °F) at Esperanza Base, on the Antarctic Peninsula, on 24 March 2015.[10] The mean annual temperature of the interior is −57 °C (−70.6 °F). The coast is warmer. Monthly means at McMurdo Station range from −26 °C (−14.8 °F) in August to −3 °C (26.6 °F) in January.[11] At the South Pole, the highest temperature ever recorded was −12.3 °C (9.9 °F) on 25 December 2011.[12] Along the Antarctic Peninsula, temperatures as high as 15 °C (59 °F) have been recorded,[clarification needed] though the summer temperature is below 0 °C (32 °F) most of the time. Severe low temperatures vary with latitude, elevation, and distance from the ocean. East Antarctica is colder than West Antarctica because of its higher elevation.[citation needed] The Antarctic Peninsula has the most moderate climate. Higher temperatures occur in January along the coast and average slightly below freezing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Antarctica​

Greenland doesn't have a nice wikipedia entry, so this statement from "World Weather and Climate Information" will have to do:

Greenland is one of the coldest countries in the world and is to a large extent (85%) always covered with ice or snow. The thickness of the ice is approximately 1500 meters (59 055 inch). The temperature is almost the whole year below 0 degrees Celsius (32° Fahrenheit). Only at the coast in the summer period, which is short-lived, temperatures sometimes rise above the freezing point.

https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-Rainfall-Temperature-Sunshine-in-Greenland

​

Here are the two take home statements from the above:



You can roll your eyes and claim what I've said it beyond parody but neither Greenland nor Antarctica is melting.
When you read in the popular press about those places melting, you are reading lies, it's just that simple.
Click to expand...

No, when you read on denier websites that places like Greenland are not melting, you are reading lies. Both the GRACE gravitometric data and satellite altimetry data have confirmed that Greenland is losing ice at a rate of around 280 billion tons per year, primarily from coastal regions.

See, for example: Greenland ice loss 2002-2016

"The mass of the Greenland ice sheet has rapidly declined in the last several years due to surface melting and iceberg calving. Research based on observations from the NASA/German Aerospace Center’s twin Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites indicates that between 2002 and 2016, Greenland shed approximately 280 gigatons of ice per year, causing global sea level to rise by 0.03 inches (0.8 millimeters) per year."
 
Steve Case said:
And you know what? I agree with you 100%

So, since most of the warming is in winter, at night, and I might add in the higher latitudes,
why is global warming/climate change a catastrophic disaster in the making?
Click to expand...

Well I would say that is not as big of a disaster as the big doom and gloom predictors think it will be - the bunch that claims its going to be an apocalyptic event. However, its a bigger problem than many of the skeptics think it is too. I think it will primarily be an environmental issue that drives a massive loss of biodiversity. We humans will ultimately be all right, but most climate sensitive species will not be.
 
Surface Detail said:
No, when you read on denier websites that places like Greenland are not melting, you are reading lies.
Click to expand...
Says you

Surface Detail said:
Both the GRACE gravitometric data and satellite altimetry data have confirmed that Greenland is losing ice at a rate of around 280 billion tons per year, primarily from coastal regions.
Click to expand...
Yes ice bergs calve into the sea at the sea coast and when the
sun goes down it gets dark.

Surface Detail said:
See, for example: Greenland ice loss 2002-2016
Click to expand...
Your link claims melting and says nothing about temperature.

Surface Detail said:
"The mass of the Greenland ice sheet has rapidly declined in the last several years due to surface melting and iceberg calving.
Click to expand...

Probably very close to 100% for iceberg calving and 0% for melting.
Your link didn't provide the ratio - use your imagination to figure out
why that is.

Surface Detail said:
Research based on observations from the NASA/German Aerospace Center’s twin Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites indicates that between 2002 and 2016, Greenland shed approximately 280 gigatons of ice per year, causing global sea level to rise by 0.03 inches (0.8 millimeters) per year."
Click to expand...
I have no way of knowing the truthfulness of that statement
other than to compare it with other issues where it can be
shown that climatologists fudge the numbers. Case in point
would be the thousands of changes GISS has made to the world
temperature index or what NOAA has recently done to the sea
level satellite record or what Dr. Josh Willis did to the ocean
temperatures from the ARGO floats.
 
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