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Are we undergoing global cooling?

Visbek said:
Y'know, I've seen a lot of inane and poorly devised arguments here. This has got to rank with the worst of them.

The United States is not the entire planet. In fact, the surface area of the continental United States is 1.58% of the planet. Temperatures in the US are not in lock step with the entire planet. And when you look at the raw data, there is STILL a clear trend of rising temperatures.

This is a chart of both raw and adjusted GLOBAL temperatures. We are, after all, talking about GLOBAL warming:

noaa_world_rawadj_annual-1280x931.png


Back in the real world: Every dataset of global averages makes adjustments these days. Scientists have done this for decades. It's all public. Anyone with a basic familiarity with the science knows about them, and why they're made. Note the adjustments overall are quite small, particularly after 1940; and of course, the adjustments before 1940 actually revised temperatures up. This is no different than calibrating a telescope or mass spectrometer.

In a move that is equal parts hilarious and sad, the deniers will complain when the data is adjusted -- and complain when it ISN'T adjusted. If it's adjusted to compensate for urban encroachment on measuring stations, then it's a fix! If it isn't adjusted, then they're allowing an artificial bias and... it's fixed!

I mean, really. Your idea of a "scam" is scientists who publish the raw data, the adjusted data, and the actual scripts you can use to adjust the data yourself? Whose adjustments show less warming in the past, and almost no adjustments now?

Those types of arguments are not rational, they're not scientific. That's just straight-up denial.
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Please see the link in #12.
 
Deuce said:
What does this have to do with the alleged cooling in the OP?
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Was replying your post only,

Originally Posted by Deuce
"Substantially lower temperatures of the last many months?"

2017 was the 2nd warmest year in this instrumental record. What lower temperatures are you referencing?

A few months ago it was winter, dude. That's why it got colder.
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expat_panama said:
The statement sounds an awful lot like those political rants we been hearing from partisan political factions in the news lately. Like we all know that a "year" can neither be cold nor warm, it's just a unit of time.

What you're probably thinking of is something like say, the earth's biosphere? Could you please share w/ us any records you have of temperature measurements along w/ info on what part of the biosphere got measured? A link to actual raw temp measurements would be great. Let's please understand that so called "anomalies" or "deviations from averages" can easily be fudged by political hacks after ignoring and deleting the original readings, that's why the original numbers are so important.

If you can do that then we could compare the readings to older readings to see how far off we've gone.
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The highest temperatures in a non-urban and non-suburban area is still from the 30's. I will still contend modern temperature readings are skewed by meteorological stations being close to and in developed areas.
 
SirGareth said:
"Math? What Math? I don' see no friggin math"

How much did my mother weigh at birth?

You can consult all the mathematicians you need and I'll tell you how close they got
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To further the analogy, you're suggesting the weight printed on her birth certificate is suspect?
 
expat_panama said:
The statement sounds an awful lot like those political rants we been hearing from partisan political factions in the news lately. Like we all know that a "year" can neither be cold nor warm, it's just a unit of time.

What you're probably thinking of is something like say, the earth's biosphere? Could you please share w/ us any records you have of temperature measurements along w/ info on what part of the biosphere got measured? A link to actual raw temp measurements would be great. Let's please understand that so called "anomalies" or "deviations from averages" can easily be fudged by political hacks after ignoring and deleting the original readings, that's why the original numbers are so important.

If you can do that then we could compare the readings to older readings to see how far off we've gone.
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I see you've bought the propaganda regarding temperature data. Since you believe the temperature data to be useless, exactly what did you base your temperature claim on?
 
Lord of Planar said:
The highest temperatures in a non-urban and non-suburban area is still from the 30's. I will still contend modern temperature readings are skewed by meteorological stations being close to and in developed areas.
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The urban heat island effect has been discussed to death. It's a non-issue.
 
Fraggle Rock said:
if 97% of the scientist agree.that is good enough for me. If you went to a surgeon and they said they could remove your appendix with a small hole in your abdomen and that surgery method was accepted by 97% of the surgeons you would think that was a consensus. Now 3% said they could remove it by going up your arse......which method would you choose. Lets be clear I am realistic the people who have been studying this their whole lives I will defer to them. Not a bunch of guys in their underpants in their basement offering the world their opinions on a website. Again what are their credentials for even implying they know diddlie squat on the subject
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99% of psychic surgeons say no incisions are necessary, watch:

 
Deuce said:
The urban heat island effect has been discussed to death. It's a non-issue.
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Your opinion is not fact.

At least I have an open mind to things. Keep yourselves in a box if you like.

I don't know how you can claim it is a non-issue, and complain about heat related deaths.
 
Fraggle Rock said:
if 97% of the scientist agree.that is good enough for me. If you went to a surgeon and they said they could remove your appendix with a small hole in your abdomen and that surgery method was accepted by 97% of the surgeons you would think that was a consensus. Now 3% said they could remove it by going up your arse......which method would you choose. Lets be clear I am realistic the people who have been studying this their whole lives I will defer to them. Not a bunch of guys in their underpants in their basement offering the world their opinions on a website. Again what are their credentials for even implying they know diddlie squat on the subject
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Apparently you don't have anything substantive for me to reply with.

:2wave:
 
Visbek said:
This is a chart of both raw and adjusted GLOBAL temperatures. We are, after all, talking about GLOBAL warming:
noaa_world_rawadj_annual-1280x931.png
.
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Usually when we talk about raw data we're talking about the original readings as recorded --and the readings are packed into data sets for everyone to see (kind of like what we got here). Now, the guy at NOAA who said his "anomaly" numbers were "raw" was fudging --and yes, sometimes it's possible for guys working w/ the gov't can fudge numbers even while wearing a white coat.

What's important right here and now is that you sound like you're trying to tell me that the earth is in some kind of climate danger that involves like, "heat". If you're saying the "globe" is "warming" I'd be super grateful if you could take the time to say what part of the globe is heating and just why this heating is worse than the heating we've had before.
 
Lord of Planar said:
The highest temperatures in a non-urban and non-suburban area is still from the 30's. I will still contend modern temperature readings are skewed by meteorological stations being close to and in developed areas.
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My own experiance is that even if we took the climatechange numbers for temps to date as fact, we still don't have any kind of change more severe than what we've had in the past few millenia.

Like, humankind's been doing pretty good for what, a few hundred thousand years? During that time we've had temp swings way out of scale of even the worse rants we're hearing about the past century or so.
 
Deuce said:
...exactly what did you base your temperature claim on?
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That's just it, I'm not making a claim. I'm not saying the globe's warming, cooling, or staying the same. I'm trying to find out what you're saying about climate --and hey, if all you want to talk about is that the climate's bad and it's all my fault because I'm a bad guy then go ahead and enjoy believing what you want. I'm just interested in this climate thing folks are upset about.
 
Am I experiencing cooling? In my neck of the woods Central Ohio, I have to say yes for a few years now. Of course Winter is suppose to be cold in these parts but it keeps starting earlier and lasting longer. We are 2/3 through March and we are still experiencing low averages in the 20's.
 
vesper said:
Am I experiencing cooling? In my neck of the woods Central Ohio, I have to say yes for a few years now. Of course Winter is suppose to be cold in these parts but it keeps starting earlier and lasting longer. We are 2/3 through March and we are still experiencing low averages in the 20's.
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Greetings, Vesper. :2wave:

:agree: In addition to actually living with longer cool periods here in NE Ohio, I have 25 years of gardening records that prove it, and I tend to believe my own records in spite of what the IPCC says! :thumbs: I didn't start out keeping climate records for any particular reason back then, but I'm glad I did because gardening is hard work, and I started seeing that some veggies that I grew previously did not have time to mature with the shorter growing season that became the norm. :shrug:
 
polgara said:
Greetings, Vesper. :2wave:

:agree: In addition to actually living with longer cool periods here in NE Ohio, I have 25 years of gardening records that prove it, and I tend to believe my own records in spite of what the IPCC says! :thumbs: I didn't start out keeping climate records for any particular reason back then, but I'm glad I did because gardening is hard work, and I started seeing that some veggies that I grew previously did not have time to mature with the shorter growing season that became the norm. :shrug:
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Not only do some not have an opportunity to mature in the Fall months, those early veggies in the Spring like leaf lettuce, peas, spinach get seeded so late because of the ground is either too wet or too cold covered in snow. You can forget about a double crop because you had to wait so long to seed that the temps become too hot for a second crop to mature.
The last few years the corn has not been knee high by July 4th and the long anticipated tomatoes are taking longer to ripen on the vine. And things like Summer squashes are not ripe in Summer but rather early Fall.

Yeah gardening is a lot of work but dang I love digging in the dirt. ;)
 
vesper said:
Not only do some not have an opportunity to mature in the Fall months, those early veggies in the Spring like leaf lettuce, peas, spinach get seeded so late because of the ground is either too wet or too cold covered in snow. You can forget about a double crop because you had to wait so long to seed that the temps become too hot for a second crop to mature.
The last few years the corn has not been knee high by July 4th and the long anticipated tomatoes are taking longer to ripen on the vine. And things like Summer squashes are not ripe in Summer but rather early Fall.

Yeah gardening is a lot of work but dang I love digging in the dirt. ;)
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If you really think about what has been said on both sides...

Do you think the''re because of natural variations, or changes from man.

If you think this is mostly changes by man, is it because of CO2 , or land use changes?
 
Lord of Planar said:
If you really think about what has been said on both sides...

Do you think the''re because of natural variations, or changes from man.

If you think this is mostly changes by man, is it because of CO2 , or land use changes?
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Alex, I'll take natural variations for $100.
 
vesper said:
Not only do some not have an opportunity to mature in the Fall months, those early veggies in the Spring like leaf lettuce, peas, spinach get seeded so late because of the ground is either too wet or too cold covered in snow. You can forget about a double crop because you had to wait so long to seed that the temps become too hot for a second crop to mature.
The last few years the corn has not been knee high by July 4th and the long anticipated tomatoes are taking longer to ripen on the vine. And things like Summer squashes are not ripe in Summer but rather early Fall.

Yeah gardening is a lot of work but dang I love digging in the dirt. ;)
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I stopped trying to grow sweet corn - we've had snow the third week of May, for crying out loud! These days I go to the Amish farmer's market South of me because they farm organically - without chemicals. It's kind of a long drive from where I live, but worth the time for peace of mind. Since the sun is supposedly going into its "resting phase," according to climate scientists, it's not going to change for years, so why bother? :shrug:
 
Lord of Planar said:
Your opinion is not fact.

At least I have an open mind to things. Keep yourselves in a box if you like.

I don't know how you can claim it is a non-issue, and complain about heat related deaths.
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Uhh, because they're two different issues?

The UHI effect is just a potential problem with measuring global temperatures. You're not the first to think this up, it has been researched.

Heat related deaths are a result of actual temperatures.

I did have an open mind about the UHI effect, which is why I looked up the research into the subject during one of the 8000 past threads on the subject.
 
Lord of Planar said:
If you really think about what has been said on both sides...

Do you think the''re because of natural variations, or changes from man.

If you think this is mostly changes by man, is it because of CO2 , or land use changes?
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Congratulations, you're the 10 millionth poster to present this issue as if it has to be one or the other.
 
expat_panama said:
Usually when we talk about raw data we're talking about the original readings as recorded --and the readings are packed into data sets for everyone to see (kind of like what we got here). Now, the guy at NOAA who said his "anomaly" numbers were "raw" was fudging --and yes, sometimes it's possible for guys working w/ the gov't can fudge numbers even while wearing a white coat.

What's important right here and now is that you sound like you're trying to tell me that the earth is in some kind of climate danger that involves like, "heat". If you're saying the "globe" is "warming" I'd be super grateful if you could take the time to say what part of the globe is heating and just why this heating is worse than the heating we've had before.
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There are no "raw" global temperatures.

"Global temperature" is a concocted mish-mosh cocktail made only of "raw" sewage.

Global surface temperature cannot be measured. You therefore cannot "correct" the measure of things that cannot be measured.

I'm a teetotaler when it comes to sewage cocktai
 
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expat_panama said:
go ahead & change it if you want, just copy & paste it into Windows Paint & have at it. Graphs are super easy to fudge, political hacks do it all day long. That's why I like actual temp measurements --in this wonderful info age of ours getting the numbers has been easier by the day and w/ hard numbers we can graph/excel our brains out!

do let me know how it goes or if you want to put it together right here on this thread.
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I like temperature measurements too. I have a device that tells me the temperature of my backyard. it's called a "thermometer."

What kind of device measures the temperature of the world?

 
SirGareth said:
I like temperature measurements too. I have a device that tells me the temperature of my backyard. it's called a "thermometer."

What kind of device measures the temperature of the world?

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Whole crapload of thermometers.

More recently, satellites.
 
expat_panama said:
Usually when we talk about raw data we're talking about the original readings as recorded....
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Yes, that's what we are talking about with the instrumental records.

Raw data is directly from the stations
Adjusted data has modifications, all of which are public

See how that works?


Now, the guy at NOAA who said his "anomaly" numbers were "raw" was fudging --and yes, sometimes it's possible for guys working w/ the gov't can fudge numbers even while wearing a white coat.
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What's with the scare quotes? Temperature anomalies are a basic concept in climate science.

NOAA: The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php

Anomalies are all based on absolute numbers, and are used to show how much temperatures have changed compared to a specific period in time.

I also have no patience for baseless claims about "ooh the numbers are wrong!" The numbers are solid. The problem is that you don't like what they mean.


What's important right here and now is that you sound like you're trying to tell me that the earth is in some kind of climate danger that involves like, "heat". If you're saying the "globe" is "warming" I'd be super grateful if you could take the time to say what part of the globe is heating and just why this heating is worse than the heating we've had before.
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Egads.

Are you really saying that you don't understand the concept of a GLOBAL AVERAGE?

Do you really need me to give you a 4th grade level explainer on climate change?

Do you really think that wingnut publications like "American Thinker" have any credibility, including on this topic? And how that ludicrous article is an example of why they lack credibility?
 
Deuce said:
Whole crapload of thermometers.

More recently, satellites.
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A "crapload" of thermometers will give you the temperature at a crap load of places provided you are looking at them at the time. Some of these places are a few feet from each other and sometimes they are thousands of miles apart from each other. I'm not so sure how this gives us the "worlds temperature" reading, but I'm sure you can tell us.

The satellites are another story, they at least sample the "spots" they monitor evenly without fear or favor and that's something.

I'm still not convinced they can accurately assess a "world temperature" there are just too many spots to read and the fluids that they monitor are in constant motion up and down and back and forth. Radiosonde weather balloons can calibrate them very well and that's kinda neat

What they do admirably well is illustrate that all of the climate cult's climate models and "world surface temperature" is bogus, so they are worthwhile for that, but we don't really need satellites to conclude anything else do we?
 
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