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New Research Finds Polar Bear Numbers Up 42% Since 2004 – Survival Rates Unaffected By Sea Ice Avail

Sunsettommy

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Interesting that the Inuits who live in the region thinks Polar Bears are doing good and even too many in some places.

No Tricks Zone

New Research Finds Polar Bear Numbers Up 42% Since 2004 – Survival Rates Unaffected By Sea Ice Availability

By Kenneth Richard on 12. March 2018

SELECTED EXCERPT:

The native Inuit peoples who have lived in the Arctic and observed polar bear hunting practices for generations are apparently deserving of the “climate-change denier” moniker.
For that matter, the audacious scientists who risk the ire of the AGW gatekeepers to interview these community leaders and then publish their results in scientific journals apparently must be classified as “climate-change deniers” too.

Why? Because there appears to be widespread agreement among Inuit observers that polar bears are skilled swimmers who can catch seals in open water (and not just from sea ice surfaces). This observation wholly contradicts the “well established” and “overwhelming” scientific evidence identified in Harvey et al. (2017) that says polar bears can only catch seals from a sea ice platform.
“The [native populations’] view of polar bears as effective open-water hunters is not consistent with the Western scientific understanding that bears rely on the sea ice platform for catching prey (Stirling and McEwan, 1975; Smith, 1980). The implications of this disagreement are paramount, given that scientists suggest that the greatest threat to polar bears associated with a decrease in sea ice is a significant decrease in access to marine mammal prey (Stirling and Derocher, 1993; Derocher et al., 2004).” — Laforest et al., 2018

‘There’s Too Many Polar Bears Now’
Not only do the generational observations indicate that polar bears’ hunting practices are not duly harmed by sea ice reduction, but community participants consistently report thriving and growing polar bear populations — especially in recent years.

An extensive analysis by York et al. (2016), relying heavily on native reports, concluded that 12 of 13 Canadian Arctic sub-populations have been stable or growing in recent decades. Wong et al. (2017) recorded Inuit community members reporting “there’s too many polar bears now.”

Even aerial analysis has revealed stable to growing polar bear populations across wide swaths of the Arctic. Aars et al. (2017), for example, report that there is “no evidence” that reduced sea ice has led to a reduction in polar bear population size. To the contrary, these scientists found that polar bears living near the Barents Sea increased in number by 42% — from 685 to 973 — between 2004 and 2015.

LINK
 
Interesting that the Inuits who live in the region thinks Polar Bears are doing good and even too many in some places.

No Tricks Zone

New Research Finds Polar Bear Numbers Up 42% Since 2004 – Survival Rates Unaffected By Sea Ice Availability

By Kenneth Richard on 12. March 2018

SELECTED EXCERPT:

The native Inuit peoples who have lived in the Arctic and observed polar bear hunting practices for generations are apparently deserving of the “climate-change denier” moniker.
For that matter, the audacious scientists who risk the ire of the AGW gatekeepers to interview these community leaders and then publish their results in scientific journals apparently must be classified as “climate-change deniers” too.

Why? Because there appears to be widespread agreement among Inuit observers that polar bears are skilled swimmers who can catch seals in open water (and not just from sea ice surfaces). This observation wholly contradicts the “well established” and “overwhelming” scientific evidence identified in Harvey et al. (2017) that says polar bears can only catch seals from a sea ice platform.
“The [native populations’] view of polar bears as effective open-water hunters is not consistent with the Western scientific understanding that bears rely on the sea ice platform for catching prey (Stirling and McEwan, 1975; Smith, 1980). The implications of this disagreement are paramount, given that scientists suggest that the greatest threat to polar bears associated with a decrease in sea ice is a significant decrease in access to marine mammal prey (Stirling and Derocher, 1993; Derocher et al., 2004).” — Laforest et al., 2018

‘There’s Too Many Polar Bears Now’
Not only do the generational observations indicate that polar bears’ hunting practices are not duly harmed by sea ice reduction, but community participants consistently report thriving and growing polar bear populations — especially in recent years.

An extensive analysis by York et al. (2016), relying heavily on native reports, concluded that 12 of 13 Canadian Arctic sub-populations have been stable or growing in recent decades. Wong et al. (2017) recorded Inuit community members reporting “there’s too many polar bears now.”

Even aerial analysis has revealed stable to growing polar bear populations across wide swaths of the Arctic. Aars et al. (2017), for example, report that there is “no evidence” that reduced sea ice has led to a reduction in polar bear population size. To the contrary, these scientists found that polar bears living near the Barents Sea increased in number by 42% — from 685 to 973 — between 2004 and 2015.

LINK

Obviously big oil has been paying Eskimos to dress up like polar bears and fool researchers. This is more proof Global Warming is REAL.
 
Penguins too!

Antarctic
[h=1]The Penguins Smoking Hockey Schtick[/h]Guest essay by James Wanliss It is a tough life in Antarctica. Average winter temperature at the South Pole is about -49°C. The coldest temperature ever recorded by a thermometer in Antarctica was -89.2°C at Vostok station in 1983. (This is the same as -128.6°F.) Satellite measurements have found temperatures as low as a frigid…
 
Obviously big oil has been paying Eskimos to dress up like polar bears and fool researchers. This is more proof Global Warming is REAL.

Well, thanks a bunch. What am I supposed to do with this polar bear outfit now? Huh?
 
Interesting that the Inuits who live in the region thinks Polar Bears are doing good and even too many in some places.

No Tricks Zone

New Research Finds Polar Bear Numbers Up 42% Since 2004 – Survival Rates Unaffected By Sea Ice Availability

By Kenneth Richard on 12. March 2018

SELECTED EXCERPT:

The native Inuit peoples who have lived in the Arctic and observed polar bear hunting practices for generations are apparently deserving of the “climate-change denier” moniker.
For that matter, the audacious scientists who risk the ire of the AGW gatekeepers to interview these community leaders and then publish their results in scientific journals apparently must be classified as “climate-change deniers” too.

Why? Because there appears to be widespread agreement among Inuit observers that polar bears are skilled swimmers who can catch seals in open water (and not just from sea ice surfaces). This observation wholly contradicts the “well established” and “overwhelming” scientific evidence identified in Harvey et al. (2017) that says polar bears can only catch seals from a sea ice platform.
“The [native populations’] view of polar bears as effective open-water hunters is not consistent with the Western scientific understanding that bears rely on the sea ice platform for catching prey (Stirling and McEwan, 1975; Smith, 1980). The implications of this disagreement are paramount, given that scientists suggest that the greatest threat to polar bears associated with a decrease in sea ice is a significant decrease in access to marine mammal prey (Stirling and Derocher, 1993; Derocher et al., 2004).” — Laforest et al., 2018

‘There’s Too Many Polar Bears Now’
Not only do the generational observations indicate that polar bears’ hunting practices are not duly harmed by sea ice reduction, but community participants consistently report thriving and growing polar bear populations — especially in recent years.

An extensive analysis by York et al. (2016), relying heavily on native reports, concluded that 12 of 13 Canadian Arctic sub-populations have been stable or growing in recent decades. Wong et al. (2017) recorded Inuit community members reporting “there’s too many polar bears now.”

Even aerial analysis has revealed stable to growing polar bear populations across wide swaths of the Arctic. Aars et al. (2017), for example, report that there is “no evidence” that reduced sea ice has led to a reduction in polar bear population size. To the contrary, these scientists found that polar bears living near the Barents Sea increased in number by 42% — from 685 to 973 — between 2004 and 2015.

LINK

LOL.

The Inuit, who have a heavily vested interest in keeping their legal ability to hunt polar bears active, publicly say that bear populations are doing great.

This is like citing Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump as the source for a study that says exporting elephant ivory from Africa is a totally benign policy.
 
Apparently SIX published papers showing Polar Bear populations stable or increasing was too much for warmists to handle, they avoid this thread totally.

Snicker........
 
Apparently SIX published papers showing Polar Bear populations stable or increasing was too much for warmists to handle, they avoid this thread totally.

Snicker........

Except for Threegoofs. Did you put him on your ignore list? I guess it is just easier to ignore people than to actually address their counter-arguments.


Interesting that the Inuits who live in the region thinks Polar Bears are doing good and even too many in some places.

No Tricks Zone

New Research Finds Polar Bear Numbers Up 42% Since 2004 – Survival Rates Unaffected By Sea Ice Availability

By Kenneth Richard on 12. March 2018

SELECTED EXCERPT:

The native Inuit peoples who have lived in the Arctic and observed polar bear hunting practices for generations....

snip

Well... that is one hell of a collection of cherry-picked studies, cherry-picked quotes, and mischaracterizations.

I went and read one of these studies in its entirety(Wong_et_al_2017.pdf) and its purpose was not to assess population numbers at all. It was about better communicating with the natives to improve research. Here is a good example of AllTricksZone's cherry-picking:

“All [Inuit] participants reported having more bear encounters in recent years than in the past. Some participants indicated that the bears they have encountered are healthy.”
Inuit observations: “Last year he said that there’s more bears that are more fat … they rarely see unhealthy bears … the only time they would see one is when it’s pretty old … it won’t hunt—hunt as much … and it’s skinny. (AB9)

And the full quote:

All participants reported having more bear encounters in recent years than in the past. Some participants indicated that the bears they have encountered are healthy."...Last year he said that there’s more bears that are more fat ... they rarely see unhealthy bears ... the only time they would see one is when it’s pretty old ... it won’t hunt—hunt as much ... and it’s skinny." (AB9)
Others indicated the opposite. "Since they’re getting hungry, the polar bears ... they seems to be declining in fatness. So they’re skinnier one ... lack of uh, food ... the year before one that he caught seems skinnier than the one that he caught last year ... due to lack of food." (K7)

And then I looked over several more of these studies and saw numerous examples of this kind of cherry picking. And as a matter of fact, AllTricksZone is ignoring numerous points that these studies make that refute many of their arguments.

This article and its source are both a joke.
 
Thank you for the reply Buzz, unfortunately you didn't understand main point of the paper you complained over. If you had read down the paper, you would find out that Inuits have been witnessed large Polar Bear population swings in the last 100 years, examples at page 5:

Inuit observations of polar bear ecology All participants reported having more bear encounters in recent years than in the past. Some participants indicated that the bears they have encountered are healthy. …Last year he said that there’s more bears that are more fat…they rarely see unhealthy bears…the only time they would see one is when it’s pretty old … it won’t hunt—hunt as much … and it’s skinny. (AB9) Others indicated the opposite. Since they’re getting hungry, the polar bears … they seems to be declining in fatness. So they’re skinnier one … lack of uh, food … the year before one that he caught seems skinnier than the one that he caught last year … due to lack of food. (K7)

Some participants attributed interactions with bears to cyclical changes in polar bear distribution. Back then there used to hardly be any bears…1920s, the father-in-law said they used to go miles and miles by dog team, or by walking to go hunt polar bears … butafter1980s,tonowthere’salotofbears…1920s, his father-in-law was saying that there were a lot of bears back then … few years later they were all gone …and now they’re all back…I think it goes like that, back and forth. (AB12) Our elders, they say, they migrate, into other area … for years, and then they come back … that’s what we’re experiencing now…backinearly80s,andmid 90s, there were hardly any bears … there’s too many polar bears now. (AR16)

This what YOU said about the paper you didn't understand,

I went and read one of these studies in its entirety(Wong_et_al_2017.pdf) and its purpose was not to assess population numbers at all. It was about better communicating with the natives to improve research. Here is a good example of AllTricksZone's cherry-picking:

There was some discussions about assessing bears after all, how did you miss it Buzz? You quotes some of it but incredibly failed to understand the significance of it.

You complain about "cherrypicking" while ABSTRACTS doesn't agree with you, they were FULLY quoted straight from the papers. Example from Polar Research Journal:

Aars et al., 2017

ABSTRACT
Polar bears have experienced a rapid loss of sea-ice habitat in the Barents Sea. Monitoring this subpopulation focuses on the effects on polar bear demography. In August 2015, we conducted a survey in the Norwegian Arctic to estimate polar bear numbers and reveal population substructure. DNA profiles from biopsy samples and ear tags identified on photographs revealed that about half of the bears in Svalbard, compared to only 4.5% in the pack ice north of the archipelago, were recognized recaptures. The recaptured bears had originally been marked in Svalbard, mostly in spring. The existence of a local Svalbard stock, and another ecotype of bears using the pack ice in autumn with low likelihood of visiting Svalbard, support separate population size estimation for the two areas. Mainly by aerial survey line transect distance sampling methods, we estimated that 264 (95% CI = 199 – 363) bears were in Svalbard, close to 241 bears estimated for August 2004. The pack ice area had an estimated 709 bears (95% CI = 334 – 1026). The pack ice and the total (Svalbard + pack ice, 973 bears, 95% CI = 334 – 1026) both had higher estimates compared to August 2004 (444 and 685 bears, respectively), but the increase was not significant. There is no evidence that the fast reduction of sea-ice habitat in the area has yet led to a reduction in population size. The carrying capacity is likely reduced significantly, but recovery from earlier depletion up to 1973 may still be ongoing.

At No Tricks Zone,

Aars et al., 2017

The number and distribution of polar

bears in the western Barents Sea

“In August 2015, we conducted a survey in the Norwegian Arctic to estimate polar bear numbers and reveal population substructure. … Mainly by aerial survey line transect distance sampling methods, we estimated that 264 (95% CI = 199 – 363) bears were in Svalbard, close to 241 bears estimated for August 2004. The pack ice area had an estimated 709 bears (95% CI = 334 – 1026). The pack ice and the total (Svalbard + pack ice, 973 bears [in 2015], 95% CI = 334 – 1026) both had higher estimates compared to August 2004 (444 and 685 bears [in 2004], respectively), but the increase was not significant.”

“There is no evidence that the fast reduction of sea-ice habitat in the area has yet led to a reduction in population size.”
 
Thank you for the reply Buzz, unfortunately you didn't understand main point of the paper you complained over. If you had read down the paper, you would find out that Inuits have been witnessed large Polar Bear population swings in the last 100 years, examples at page 5:

There was some discussions about assessing bears after all, how did you miss it Buzz? You quotes some of it but incredibly failed to understand the significance of it.

This study is not a discussion of Polar Bear numbers. Please... read the abstract again and see what it was really about. And the part you are quoting is just a mention of what a couple of natives say anecdotally of their impressions of bear numbers. It certainly isn't a legitimate scientific method for ascertaining numbers of anything. Face the facts Sunset... this argument of yours in no way what so ever refutes the fact that this study is not about Polar Bear populations.

Sunsettommy said:
You complain about "cherrypicking" while ABSTRACTS doesn't agree with you, they were FULLY quoted straight from the papers. Example from Polar Research Journal:

Wow!! You claim AllTricksZone fully quotes the abstracts then provide proof that they didn't fully quote the abstract of the paper you brought up.
 
This study is not a discussion of Polar Bear numbers. Please... read the abstract again and see what it was really about. And the part you are quoting is just a mention of what a couple of natives say anecdotally of their impressions of bear numbers. It certainly isn't a legitimate scientific method for ascertaining numbers of anything. Face the facts Sunset... this argument of yours in no way what so ever refutes the fact that this study is not about Polar Bear populations.



Wow!! You claim AllTricksZone fully quotes the abstracts then provide proof that they didn't fully quote the abstract of the paper you brought up.

But his denier blog SAID it’s about Polar Bear populations!

Whaaa!
 
Anyone notice that in almost all of the abstracts, there was mention of lengthier ice-free time? Then there is the problem of increased interactions with polar bears which just might be a result of the bears coming to town garbage dumps because they can't get to their normal prey - owing to less sea ice.
 
This study is not a discussion of Polar Bear numbers. Please... read the abstract again and see what it was really about. And the part you are quoting is just a mention of what a couple of natives say anecdotally of their impressions of bear numbers. It certainly isn't a legitimate scientific method for ascertaining numbers of anything. Face the facts Sunset... this argument of yours in no way what so ever refutes the fact that this study is not about Polar Bear populations.



Wow!! You claim AllTricksZone fully quotes the abstracts then provide proof that they didn't fully quote the abstract of the paper you brought up.

You were claiming cherrypicking when they were not since what they quoted didn't dispute the full abstract conclusions. That is what you amazingly missed.
 
Anyone notice that in almost all of the abstracts, there was mention of lengthier ice-free time? Then there is the problem of increased interactions with polar bears which just might be a result of the bears coming to town garbage dumps because they can't get to their normal prey - owing to less sea ice.

Warmists never seem to understand that low to zero summer ice has little impact on the Polar Bears diet because they get most of the food for the year in just 3 1/2 months time (April-July).

From the WFF

Polar bear diet

Excerpt:

Food can be hard to come by for polar bears for much of the year. The bear puts on most of its yearly fat reserves between late April and mid-July to maintain its weight in the lean seasons.

LINK
 
Last edited:
Warmists never seem to understand that low to zero summer ice has little impact on the Polar Bears diet because they get most of the food for the year in just 3 1/2 months time (April-July).

From the WFF

Polar bear diet

Excerpt:

Food can be hard to come by for polar bears for much of the year. The bear puts on most of its yearly fat reserves between late April and mid-July to maintain its weight in the lean seasons.

LINK

Gosh.

You’d think scientists would know this stuff by now.

Thanks for all your dedicated work on studying Polar Bears, you really must have invested decades of your life to know this better than the experts.

Polar Bears Are Starving Because of Global Warming, Melting Sea Ice, Study Shows
 
Just turning up the volume and repeating the propaganda.

Yeah he is deflecting, as usual.

The Sun

By Will Stewart
29th September 2017, 2:46 pm

WHALE OF A TIME Incredible moment more than 230 polar bears descend on a Russian beach to feast on a giant whale carcass

EXCERPT:

AMAZING pictures from the Arctic show an army of more than 230 polar bears feasting on a washed up whale carcass.
The animals descended on the beach for an unexpected lunch after a bowhead whale became stranded and died on Russia’s remote Wrangel Island.

9 revealing photos in the LINK
 
Of course. The herd huddles together for protection. Crockford has shown the emperor is naked; now they have to stand around him so no one can see.

Yes. You trust the ‘polar bear expert’ who has never done any polar bear population or ecology research over both Scientific American and National Geographic.

Even YOU have to recognize how ludicrous your position is.
 
Yes. You trust the ‘polar bear expert’ who has never done any polar bear population or ecology research over both Scientific American and National Geographic.

Even YOU have to recognize how ludicrous your position is.

Your problem is that in the real world she has been proved right and the doomsayers have been proved wrong.
 
Your problem is that in the real world she has been proved right and the doomsayers have been proved wrong.

When will the scientific world catch up to her vast knowledge?

Imagine how impressive her knowledge would be if she actually had a real academic appointment and actually did some research on Polar Bears!

She’s the auto-didact of biology.
 
When will the scientific world catch up to her vast knowledge?

Imagine how impressive her knowledge would be if she actually had a real academic appointment and actually did some research on Polar Bears!

She’s the auto-didact of biology.

And your lack of evidence has now reduced you to empty insults.
 
Your problem is that in the real world she has been proved right and the doomsayers have been proved wrong.

For him its simply the politics of envy hiding behind a thin green veil of faux environmental concern on this or any other aspect of this agenda. This time its polar bears that are the guilt trip for extracting the filthy lucre from the evil rich whatever the reality of their situation may be. He is the quintessential alarmist cliche and the best advert for our skepticism we could ever wish for :)
 
Your problem is that in the real world she has been proved right and the doomsayers have been proved wrong.

He keeps ignoring this over and over since it make clear she is well aware of the science and have been involved in research in the Polar region for many years.

From her website Polar Bears Science

My name is Susan Crockford and I am a zoologist with more than 35 years experience, including published work on the Holocene history of Arctic animals. I am currently an adjunct professor at the University of Victoria, British Columbia and work full time for a private consulting company I co-own with two colleagues, Pacific Identifications Inc.

Like Ian Stirling, grand-daddy of all polar bear biologists, I earned my undergraduate degree in zoology at the University of British Columbia. Polar bear evolution is one of my professional interests, which I discuss in my 2006 book, Rhythms of Life: Thyroid Hormone and the Origin of Species (based on my Ph.D. dissertation earned in 2004 at the University of Victoria, B.C. Canada), see Rhythms Of Life Susan Crockford.

You’ll find a list of my publications (with a brief introduction) further down, after the list of my most popular posts (with links). At the bottom of this page is a brief bio for posting elsewhere.
35 years of Experience- Check
PHD in Zoology- Check
adjunct professor at the University of Victoria, British Columbia- Check
Published a number of research papers, articles and book- Check

In her link is the list of research she has published.

It is clear that she is QUALIFIED in Polar Bear research and debate.
 
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