Sea ice extent falls to new record low

Surface Detail · Feb 13, 2018

The polar ice caps just keep on shrinking, and global polar sea ice extent has reached a new satellite-era record low. This would appear to contradict repeated AGW-denier claims that a new ice age is beginning. Strange that there has been no mention of this on WUWT.

"January of 2018 began and ended with satellite-era record lows in Arctic sea ice extent, resulting in a new record low for the month. Combined with low ice extent in the Antarctic, global sea ice extent is also at a record low."

Sea ice tracking low in both hemispheres

Jack Hays · Feb 13, 2018

Surface Detail said:
The polar ice caps just keep on shrinking, and global polar sea ice extent has reached a new satellite-era record low. This would appear to contradict repeated AGW-denier claims that a new ice age is beginning. Strange that there has been no mention of this on WUWT.

"January of 2018 began and ended with satellite-era record lows in Arctic sea ice extent, resulting in a new record low for the month. Combined with low ice extent in the Antarctic, global sea ice extent is also at a record low."

Sea ice tracking low in both hemispheres

Here you go.

Study: Weather anomalies accelerate the melting of sea ice

From ETH ZURICH comes this study with a “never before been seen on this scale” claim. The problem is, we’ve really got only a few decades of observations to compare with, plus 2015/16 was the year of the “monster” El Niño, and there were all sorts of resultant weather anomalies. We don’t have enough weather data…

January 16, 2018 in Arctic.

The paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-017-0041-0
Role of polar anticyclones and mid-latitude cyclones for Arctic summertime sea-ice melting
Abstract
Annual minima in Arctic sea-ice extent and volume have been decreasing rapidly since the late 1970s, with substantial interannual variability. Summers with a particularly strong reduction of Arctic sea-ice extent are characterized by anticyclonic circulation anomalies from the surface to the upper troposphere. Here, we investigate the origin of these seasonal circulation anomalies by identifying individual Arctic anticyclones (with a lifetime of typically ten days) and analysing the air mass transport into these systems. We reveal that these episodic upper-level induced Arctic anticyclones are relevant for generating seasonal circulation anomalies. Sea-ice reduction is systematically enhanced during the transient episodes with Arctic anticyclones and the seasonal reduction of sea-ice volume correlates with the area-averaged frequency of Arctic anticyclones poleward of 70° N (correlation coefficient of 0.57). A trajectory analysis shows that these anticyclones result from extratropical cyclones injecting extratropical air masses with low potential vorticity into the Arctic upper troposphere. Our results emphasize the fundamental role of extratropical cyclones and associated diabatic processes in establishing Arctic anticyclones and, in turn, seasonal circulation anomalies, which are of key importance for understanding the variability of summertime Arctic sea-ice melting.

Jack Hays · Feb 13, 2018

Bad Science: NSIDC disappears Arctic sea ice extent going back years

From the “Arctic is screaming louder thanks to Mark Serreze and his adjustment shenanigans” department, I don’t think this is going to fly. Some of the adjustments are as much as 1.2 million square kilometers of sea ice, which is as much as some yearly variations. -Anthony Guest essay Tom Wiita I came across this…

January 5, 2018 in Arctic, Sea ice.

From the “Arctic is screaming louder thanks to Mark Serreze and his adjustment shenanigans” department, I don’t think this is going to fly. Some of the adjustments are as much as 1.2 million square kilometers of sea ice, which is as much as some yearly variations. -Anthony
Guest essay Tom Wiita
I came across this month’s page posted at the NSIDC web site detailing the sea ice findings for the current month. It mentioned a revision to the way NSIDC calculates the sea ice area which was made last month. Curious, I went to last month’s page to check it out.
As a veteran NSIDC-watcher, before reading the page I made a falsifiable prediction bet with myself. I bet that this change in computation method increased the rate of decline of arctic sea ice compared to the rate of decline calculated under the old method. If the rate was greater, I win. If the rate of decline was lower, I lose and my prediction is falsified. You know, like in real science. This time I’m applying it to a social science study, of the behavior of NSIDC.
Would you believe it, I won my bet!
Here’s the link to the page:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/11/freezing-in-the-dark/
And here’s the relevant section describing the change copied straight off their public web site:
[h=4]“Revised computation of the monthly mean extent[/h]

Figure 6. This chart compares the monthly October Arctic sea ice extents generated from the old (black dashed line) and the new (solid black line) averaging method. Sea Ice Indexdata. About the data Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center High-resolution image . . .

Surface Detail · Feb 13, 2018

Jack Hays said:
Here you go.

Study: Weather anomalies accelerate the melting of sea ice

From ETH ZURICH comes this study with a “never before been seen on this scale” claim. The problem is, we’ve really got only a few decades of observations to compare with, plus 2015/16 was the year of the “monster” El Niño, and there were all sorts of resultant weather anomalies. We don’t have enough weather data…

January 16, 2018 in Arctic.

The paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-017-0041-0
Role of polar anticyclones and mid-latitude cyclones for Arctic summertime sea-ice melting
Abstract
Annual minima in Arctic sea-ice extent and volume have been decreasing rapidly since the late 1970s, with substantial interannual variability. Summers with a particularly strong reduction of Arctic sea-ice extent are characterized by anticyclonic circulation anomalies from the surface to the upper troposphere. Here, we investigate the origin of these seasonal circulation anomalies by identifying individual Arctic anticyclones (with a lifetime of typically ten days) and analysing the air mass transport into these systems. We reveal that these episodic upper-level induced Arctic anticyclones are relevant for generating seasonal circulation anomalies. Sea-ice reduction is systematically enhanced during the transient episodes with Arctic anticyclones and the seasonal reduction of sea-ice volume correlates with the area-averaged frequency of Arctic anticyclones poleward of 70° N (correlation coefficient of 0.57). A trajectory analysis shows that these anticyclones result from extratropical cyclones injecting extratropical air masses with low potential vorticity into the Arctic upper troposphere. Our results emphasize the fundamental role of extratropical cyclones and associated diabatic processes in establishing Arctic anticyclones and, in turn, seasonal circulation anomalies, which are of key importance for understanding the variability of summertime Arctic sea-ice melting.

What is your point?

It is a simple fact that global ice extent just hit the lowest value ever measured, while Arctic ice extent is currently at the lowest value ever measured at this time of year.

Jack Hays · Feb 13, 2018

Surface Detail said:
What is your point?

It is a simple fact that global ice extent just hit the lowest value ever measured, while Arctic ice extent is currently at the lowest value ever measured at this time of year.

You said the issue was ignored at WUWT. You were wrong.

Jack Hays · Feb 13, 2018

Surface Detail said:
What is your point?

It is a simple fact that global ice extent just hit the lowest value ever measured, while Arctic ice extent is currently at the lowest value ever measured at this time of year.

The link in #3 suggests "lowest value ever measured" should perhaps be "lowest value ever adjusted."

Surface Detail · Feb 13, 2018

Jack Hays said:
You said the issue was ignored at WUWT. You were wrong.

Don't be silly. I was referring to that fact that the global sea ice extent has reached the lowest level ever measured, not the issue of sea ice in general. I'd have thought that was obvious!

Surface Detail · Feb 13, 2018

Jack Hays said:
The link in #3 suggests "lowest value ever measured" should perhaps be "lowest value ever adjusted."

No, your link discusses changes to the way in which monthly means are calculated. This makes no difference whatsoever to the daily values, which just hit an absolute record low for measured global ice extent as well as a record low for Arctic ice at this time of year.

bubbabgone · Feb 13, 2018

Surface Detail said:
What is your point?

It is a simple fact that global ice extent just hit the lowest value ever measured, while Arctic ice extent is currently at the lowest value ever measured at this time of year.

And prior to 1979?

“The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway.
“Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm.
“Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts, which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.”
Washington Post - 1922

And the arctic ocean has been ice-free or nearly ice-free periodically over the centuries.

Jack Hays · Feb 13, 2018

Surface Detail said:
No, your link discusses changes to the way in which monthly means are calculated. This makes no difference whatsoever to the daily values, which just hit an absolute record low for measured global ice extent as well as a record low for Arctic ice at this time of year.

Hmmm. And yet your link says:

The new year was heralded by a week of record low daily ice extents, with the January average beating out 2017 for a new record low. Ice grew through the month at near-average rates, and in the middle of the month daily extents were higher than for 2017. However, by the end of January, extent was again tracking below 2017. The monthly average extent of 13.06 million square kilometers (5.04 million square miles) was 1.36 million square kilometers (525,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average, and 110,000 square kilometers (42,500 square miles) below the previous record low monthly average in 2017.

So it ties daily extent to monthly averages.

Jack Hays · Feb 13, 2018

Surface Detail said:
Don't be silly. I was referring to that fact that the global sea ice extent has reached the lowest level ever measured, not the issue of sea ice in general. I'd have thought that was obvious!

No. It was not obvious.

Jack Hays · Feb 13, 2018

Surface Detail said:
Don't be silly. I was referring to that fact that the global sea ice extent has reached the lowest level ever measured, not the issue of sea ice in general. I'd have thought that was obvious!

WUWT maintains an extensive, updated Sea Ice reference page.

bubbabgone · Feb 13, 2018

Surface Detail said:
Don't be silly. I was referring to that fact that the global sea ice extent has reached the lowest level ever measured, not the issue of sea ice in general. I'd have thought that was obvious!

Like with surface temperature, as noted in #9 the degree of importance of "ever measured" depends entirely on the period of "measured" chosen and that it's different than "ever".
I'd have thought that was obvious too.

Surface Detail · Feb 14, 2018

bubbabgone said:
Like with surface temperature, as noted in #9 the degree of importance of "ever measured" depends entirely on the period of "measured" chosen and that it's different than "ever".
I'd have thought that was obvious too.

Nope, Jack's waffling has confused you.

It is a simple fact that the extent of global sea ice cover on February 10, 2018 was 16.00 million square kilometres. This is a daily figure, obtain from satellite imaging and unaffected by monthly averaging. It is the lowest extent of global sea ice cover ever measured, period.

Edit: Data from here.

Lord of Planar · Feb 14, 2018

Surface Detail said:
The polar ice caps just keep on shrinking, and global polar sea ice extent has reached a new satellite-era record low. This would appear to contradict repeated AGW-denier claims that a new ice age is beginning. Strange that there has been no mention of this on WUWT.

"January of 2018 began and ended with satellite-era record lows in Arctic sea ice extent, resulting in a new record low for the month. Combined with low ice extent in the Antarctic, global sea ice extent is also at a record low."

Sea ice tracking low in both hemispheres

LOL...

Who says a new ice age is beginning?

LOL...

The writer of this article obviously has no integrity.

Threegoofs · Feb 19, 2018

Here’s a really impressive look at sea ice data.

We?re witnessing the fastest decline in Arctic sea ice in at least 1,500 years - Vox

Data from:

Report Card

Jack Hays · Feb 23, 2018

[h=1]Science debunks the “Arctic sea ice extent at its lowest for at least 1500 years” meme[/h]These headlines have been recently making the rounds, such as this article at vox.com which describes “sudden scary ice melt in the Arctic, in three charts One of the charts is below, along with some peer reviewed science that says otherwise. By Paul Homewood h/t Andyg55 In December, NOAA released its latest annual Arctic Report Card,…

1 day ago February 22, 2018 in Alarmism, Arctic.

Threegoofs · Feb 24, 2018

This seems bad.

Jack Hays · Feb 24, 2018

Threegoofs said:
This seems bad.

Not really.

1. Like Stein et al. (2017), Yamamoto et al., 2017 largely attribute Holocene sea ice concentration variations to solar forcing, and they assemble a reconstruction of sea ice trends for the region that once again clearly shows sea ice coverage is greater now than it has been for almost all of the Holocene.
[h=6]“Millennial to multi-centennial variability in the quartz / feldspar ratio (the BG [Beaufort Gyre] circulation) is consistent with fluctuations in solar irradiance, suggesting that solar activity affected the BG [Beaufort Gyre] strength on these timescales. … The intensified BSI [Bering Strait in-flow] was associated with decrease in sea-ice concentrations and increase in marine production, as indicated by biomarker concentrations, suggesting a major influence of the BSI on sea-ice and biological conditions in the Chukchi Sea. Multi-century to millennial fluctuations, presumably controlled by solar activity, were also identified in a proxy-based BSI record characterized by the highest age resolution. … Proxy records consistent with solar forcing were reported from a number of paleoclimatic archives, such as Chinese stalagmites (Hu et al., 2008), Yukon lake sediments (Anderson et al., 2005), and ice cores (Fisher et al., 2008), as well as marine sediments in the northwestern Pacific (Sagawa et al., 2014) and the Chukchi Sea (Stein et al., 2017).”[/h]

Threegoofs · Feb 24, 2018

Jack Hays said:
Not really.

1. Like Stein et al. (2017), Yamamoto et al., 2017 largely attribute Holocene sea ice concentration variations to solar forcing, and they assemble a reconstruction of sea ice trends for the region that once again clearly shows sea ice coverage is greater now than it has been for almost all of the Holocene.
[h=6]“Millennial to multi-centennial variability in the quartz / feldspar ratio (the BG [Beaufort Gyre] circulation) is consistent with fluctuations in solar irradiance, suggesting that solar activity affected the BG [Beaufort Gyre] strength on these timescales. … The intensified BSI [Bering Strait in-flow] was associated with decrease in sea-ice concentrations and increase in marine production, as indicated by biomarker concentrations, suggesting a major influence of the BSI on sea-ice and biological conditions in the Chukchi Sea. Multi-century to millennial fluctuations, presumably controlled by solar activity, were also identified in a proxy-based BSI record characterized by the highest age resolution. … Proxy records consistent with solar forcing were reported from a number of paleoclimatic archives, such as Chinese stalagmites (Hu et al., 2008), Yukon lake sediments (Anderson et al., 2005), and ice cores (Fisher et al., 2008), as well as marine sediments in the northwestern Pacific (Sagawa et al., 2014) and the Chukchi Sea (Stein et al., 2017).”[/h]

Well, that’s... irrelevant.

I sure hope someone is paying you to spam denier blog posts, because otherwise...it would be pretty sad.

Jack Hays · Feb 24, 2018

Threegoofs said:
Well, that’s... irrelevant.

I sure hope someone is paying you to spam denier blog posts, because otherwise...it would be pretty sad.

I suggest you look at a map.

Jack Hays · Feb 25, 2018

[h=1]Ross Ice Shelf Freezing, Not Melting: “It blew our minds.”[/h]Guest post by David Middleton Deep Bore Into Antarctica Finds Freezing Ice, Not Melting as Expected Scientists will leave sensors in the hole to better understand the long-term changes in the ice, which may have big implications for global sea level. By Douglas Fox PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 16, 2018 Scientists have peered into one of the…
Continue reading →

Threegoofs · Feb 25, 2018

Jack Hays said:
I suggest you look at a map.

I suggest you explain your spam and what you think it means, rather than just vomiting it up here continually and repetitively.

Tim the plumber · Feb 25, 2018

Jack Hays said:
[h=1]Ross Ice Shelf Freezing, Not Melting: “It blew our minds.”[/h]Guest post by David Middleton Deep Bore Into Antarctica Finds Freezing Ice, Not Melting as Expected Scientists will leave sensors in the hole to better understand the long-term changes in the ice, which may have big implications for global sea level. By Douglas Fox PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 16, 2018 Scientists have peered into one of the…
Continue reading →

The undersides of ice shelves are usually smooth due to gradual melting. But as the camera passed through the bottom of the hole, it showed the underside of the ice adorned with a glittering layer of flat ice crystals—like a jumble of snowflakes—evidence that in this particular place, sea water is actually freezing onto the base of the ice instead of melting it.

Not only not melting but getting thicker from below as well as from any snowfall that lands on it.

Jack Hays · Feb 25, 2018

Threegoofs said:
I suggest you explain your spam and what you think it means, rather than just vomiting it up here continually and repetitively.

The Chukchi Sea abuts the Bering Sea via the Bering Strait. The Chukchi is not irrelevant to the Bering.

Sea ice extent falls to new record low

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