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Hurricane season has officially ended for 2017. Time now to assess and begin the process to forecast 2018.
[h=2]Causes and predictability of the exceptionally active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season[/h][FONT="]Posted on November 30, 2017 | 5 comments[/FONT]
by Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry
The good news: the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is over. The bad news: it was an extremely active season, with substantial damage in the U.S. and the Caribbean islands. What caused this extremely active hurricane season, and was it foreseeable?
Continue reading →
Download full report [Hurricane_review_2017 final]
The 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season was unusually active, attaining twice the normal levels of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and US hurricane landfalls. The 2017 season ranks 7th in overall activity among all years since 1920 (Fig. 1A), reaching an ACE total of 226 that far exceeds the mean level of 105 from 1980 to 2016. Over the same period, 1.5 hurricanes, on average, reached the US coastline each year, while three (Harvey, Irma and Nate) made landfall in 2017 (Fig. 1B).
Figure 1. Historical North Atlantic hurricane variability, 1920-2017. A. North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). B. United States hurricane landfalls. . . .
Conclusions
Evidence from the ocean and atmosphere suggests that North Atlantic and US hurricanes vary in response to the combined influences of ENSO, the Atlantic and Pacific and Meridional Modes, and less-understood, but important extratropical processes. CFAN is presently considering these factors and others in our ongoing assessment of the upcoming 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season. Recent history shows that highly active years have occurred consecutively (1998-99, 2003-05), warranting particular attention to developing changes in late 2017 and early 2018.
[h=2]Causes and predictability of the exceptionally active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season[/h][FONT="]Posted on November 30, 2017 | 5 comments[/FONT]
by Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry
The good news: the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is over. The bad news: it was an extremely active season, with substantial damage in the U.S. and the Caribbean islands. What caused this extremely active hurricane season, and was it foreseeable?
Continue reading →
Download full report [Hurricane_review_2017 final]
The 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season was unusually active, attaining twice the normal levels of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and US hurricane landfalls. The 2017 season ranks 7th in overall activity among all years since 1920 (Fig. 1A), reaching an ACE total of 226 that far exceeds the mean level of 105 from 1980 to 2016. Over the same period, 1.5 hurricanes, on average, reached the US coastline each year, while three (Harvey, Irma and Nate) made landfall in 2017 (Fig. 1B).
Figure 1. Historical North Atlantic hurricane variability, 1920-2017. A. North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). B. United States hurricane landfalls. . . . Conclusions
Evidence from the ocean and atmosphere suggests that North Atlantic and US hurricanes vary in response to the combined influences of ENSO, the Atlantic and Pacific and Meridional Modes, and less-understood, but important extratropical processes. CFAN is presently considering these factors and others in our ongoing assessment of the upcoming 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season. Recent history shows that highly active years have occurred consecutively (1998-99, 2003-05), warranting particular attention to developing changes in late 2017 and early 2018.
