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Alarmism / Climate sensitivity
[h=1]Another ‘worse than we thought’ study: Warming to be 15% worse than worst case scenario[/h]From the ‘scare tactical modeling’ department comes this press release today, which has been circulating to news media until the embargo lifted this morning. You’ll see all sorts of caterwauling from the usual media outlets about how global warming is even worse now, and the future looks grim. Of course, the back story is pretty…
I saw that story and had to laugh a bit.
People do not comprehend how unrealistic RCP8.5 actually is.
RCP8.5 places the year 2100 CO2 level at 936 ppm.
Let's consider for a moment what that really means.
In the last 160 years finding and burning every hydrocarbon we could,
we have raised CO2 levels by 120 ppm,
RCP8.5 would have us believe, we can find, extract and burn more than 4 times that amount
in the next 82 years, and at the same cost structure.
Reality must enter the picture at some point, we have found and extracted the cheap easy oil.
What remains is expensive and difficult to extract, think the risks of deep water horizon.
Fracking is a symptom of oil running out, not an endless supply.
In simple economic terms, if the demand is so high, the price will be high as well.
If the price is high, the possible alternatives will become economically viable, and we will not
need the oil any more.
Climate ect had a good article about the how unlikely RCP8.5 actually is.
https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/13/a-closer-look-at-scenario-rcp8-5/