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Indirect Effects of the Sun on Earth's Climate[W:376]

bubbabgone said:
That's the down side. On the plus side it does save time and effort that would normally be spent learning about a subject before drawing a conclusion.
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Well, I guess I could just get my science from the Bible. You seem to respect that.
 
[h=3]New skeptical film: 'The Cloud Mystery' challenges claims of CO2 as ...[/h]www.climatedepot.com/2018/.../new-skeptical-film-the-cloud-mystery-challenges-clai...



5 days ago - It's provocative because Dr Svensmark's revelations challenge the belief of most climate theorists that carbon dioxide has been the main driver of global warming. As a result he has faced never-ending opposition. But strong support for the cosmic view of climate change comes from astronomer Nir Shaviv ...
 
[h=3]Commentary: Climate change rhetoric ignores natural forces ...[/h]www.northernminer.com/environment/commentary-climate.../1003781394/



According to distinguished astrophysicists Nir Shaviv, Henryk Svensmark and their colleagues, who are modern-day Galileos (both for their intellect and persecution by the powers that be), a most critical force causing climate change is highly energized cosmic rays originating from outside our solar system, which ionize the ...
 
Jack Hays said:
[h=3]Commentary: Climate change rhetoric ignores natural forces ...[/h]www.northernminer.com/environment/commentary-climate.../1003781394/



According to distinguished astrophysicists Nir Shaviv, Henryk Svensmark and their colleagues, who are modern-day Galileos (both for their intellect and persecution by the powers that be), a most critical force causing climate change is highly energized cosmic rays originating from outside our solar system, which ionize the ...
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I am beginning to wonder if the vast majority of the warming seen in the instrument record has Anthropogenic origins.
The error arising from the different sampling techniques, could easily allow the recorded warming within it's very subjective range.
If the warming were purely the result of subjective selections, that to would be Anthropogenic Global warming!
 
Preemptive excuse making.


[h=1]Study: Reduced Energy from the Sun Might Occur by Mid-century – cooling the climate[/h]From UCD/Scripps: Reduced Energy from the Sun Might Occur by Mid-century; Now Scientists Know by How Much UC San Diego scientists review satellite observations of nearby Sun-like stars to estimate the strength of the next “grand minimum” period of diminished UV radiation The Sun might emit less radiation by mid-century, giving planet Earth a chance…
Continue reading →
 
Solar
[h=1]Forecast for Solar Cycle 25[/h]James A. Marusek I. Introduction The sun is the natural source of heat and light for our planet. Without our sun, the earth would be a cold dead planet adrift in space. But the sun is not constant. It changes and these subtle changes affect the Earth’s climate and weather. At the end of solar…
 
“grand minimum” could overtake the sun perhaps as soon as 2020 & lasting thru 2070, resulting in diminished magnetism, infrequent sunspot production… — all bringing a cooler period to the planet that may span 50 years [link]
 
solar flare
[h=1]SUNSPOT EXPLODES, HURLS GIANT SOLAR FLARE AT EARTH[/h]We first reported on this possibility a few days ago. On Feb. 12th, the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2699 exploded–for more than 6 hours. The slow-motion blast produced a C1-class solar flare and hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. This movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observtory (SOHO) shows the CME leaving the sun: The…
 
Jack Hays said:
solar flare
[h=1]SUNSPOT EXPLODES, HURLS GIANT SOLAR FLARE AT EARTH[/h]We first reported on this possibility a few days ago. On Feb. 12th, the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2699 exploded–for more than 6 hours. The slow-motion blast produced a C1-class solar flare and hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. This movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observtory (SOHO) shows the CME leaving the sun: The…
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A little perspective, before anyone starts to panic:

"The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has devised categories for the flares and various storms. The biggest flares are known as "X-class flares" based on a classification system that divides solar flares according to their strength. The smallest ones are A-class (near background levels), followed by B, C, M, and X. Similar to the Richter scale for earthquakes, each letter represents a 10-fold increase in energy output. So an X is ten times an M and 100 times a C. Within each letter class there is a finer scale from 1 to 9.

C-class and smaller flares are too weak to noticeably affect Earth. M-class flares can cause brief radio blackouts at the poles and minor radiation storms that might endanger astronauts."

Classifying Solar Eruptions
 
Surface Detail said:
A little perspective, before anyone starts to panic:

"The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has devised categories for the flares and various storms. The biggest flares are known as "X-class flares" based on a classification system that divides solar flares according to their strength. The smallest ones are A-class (near background levels), followed by B, C, M, and X. Similar to the Richter scale for earthquakes, each letter represents a 10-fold increase in energy output. So an X is ten times an M and 100 times a C. Within each letter class there is a finer scale from 1 to 9.

C-class and smaller flares are too weak to noticeably affect Earth. M-class flares can cause brief radio blackouts at the poles and minor radiation storms that might endanger astronauts."

Classifying Solar Eruptions
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No need for panic. WUWT has been following this for a while.
 
Jack Hays said:
Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle [link]
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When they start considering solar lags in the years and decades, rather than days or months, things start to make sense! The most apparent lag is fast responding, the day night cycle. It is a few hours from the noon peak to the highest temperatures. The lag of the seasons outside of equatorial regions is around 2 months. The fastest sea surface lag is probably around the 2 to 4 years they speak of. The ECS for solar to global ocean temperatures is probably around 100 years for 70% equalization, but well over 1,000 years to approach 90%+ equalization. But the long cycles of the sun are probably around 500 years.
 
[h=3]Cosmic Rays, Magnetic Fields and Climate Change | Energy Matters[/h]euanmearns.com/cosmic-rays-magnetic-fields-and-climate-change/



Jan 29, 2018 - In my recent post on The Cosmogenic Isotope Record and the Role of The Sun in Shaping Earth's Climate an interesting discussion developed in comments where there was a fair amount of disagreement among my sceptical colleagues. A few days later, retired Apollo astronaut Phil Chapman sent me this ...
 
Deuce said:
Because forecasting climate is actually easier than forecasting weather. They're predicting general averages over the planet, as opposed to specific days and specific weather in specific locations.
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I agree that predicting future climate is every bit as as easy as predicting our future lifelines through palmistry.
 
SirGareth said:
I agree that predicting future climate is every bit as as easy as predicting our future lifelines through palmistry.
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ce594954be83357350494c872a8b9a7a.jpg
 
Solar
[h=1]Cool science: NASA Satellites Recreate Solar Eruption in 3-D[/h]The more solar observatories, the merrier: Scientists have developed new models to see how shocks associated with coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, propagate from the Sun — an effort made possible only by combining data from three NASA satellites to produce a much more robust mapping of a CME than any one could do alone.…
 
Threegoofs said:
Oh, look.

Same graph, now it’s global instead of tropical.

Funny that.
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Not remarkable at all.

Climate models versus climate reality

Posted on December 17, 2015 | 244 comments
by Pat Michaels and Chip Knappenberger Perhaps the most frank example of the growing disconnection between forecast and observed climate change was presented by University of Alabama’s John Christy to the Senate Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness Committee of … Continue reading →

. . . It isn’t the usual comparison between global average surface temperature and the current family of general circulation climate models. Instead, it’s the forecast and observed temperatures for the middle troposphere.
The troposphere is the earth’s active weather zone, and it extends from the surface to around 40,000 feet. It’s deeper where the atmosphere is warm, as in the tropics, and shallower at higher latitudes. All significant storms, from massive winter cyclones to gullywashing summer thunderstorms are in the troposphere.
All of the data in this plot are smoothed out by using five-year running means, which filters out year-to-year variability and emphasizes more systematic, long-term behavior.
Twice a day, weather balloons are launched simultaneously around the planet in order to get a snapshot of the physical properties of today’s atmosphere. The temperature, humidity, barometric pressure and wind data provide the basis for the next iteration of global weather forecasting models. The instrumentation is largely standardized and calibrated for accuracy.
There are four different analyses of these datasets, and the blue dots are their running mean average.
The temperature of the mid-troposphere can also be sensed from above, by orbiting satellites that measure the vibration of diatomic oxygen, which turns out to be a much more accurate thermometer than, say, a standard mercury-in-glass instrument. There are two global analyses of these data, one by Christy’s crew and another from Remote Sensing Systems, a California consultancy. The green squares are the average of these two datasets.
Note that the satellite and balloon-sensed temperatures are independent measurments.
The red line is the five-year running mean of the 102 computer models that can generate temperatures in this layer, found in the latest (2013) scientific assessment of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
All of the data have been scaled the same in the vertical dimension, with a maximum weighting around 12,000 feet above the surface. The sensing technique in the satellite picks off a bit of data above the troposphere, in the placid stratosphere, and the balloon and computer model data were scaled in the same fashion. So this is a true apples-to-apples-to-apples test. . . .

 
Jack Hays said:
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His chart are mostly based on GROUND based temperature data, which are known to be treated with repeated adjustments.

Your chart are based on Atmospheric readings which are appropriate as the AGW conjecture are based on the atmosphere, NOT the ground.
 
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