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Some Failed Climate Predictions

[...Guest essay by Eric Worrall A NASA Scientist is claiming that if Mount Agung in Bali erupts, it could plunge the world into a cold period for several years. Bali volcano REVERSE global warming: NASA say Mount Agung could plunge earth into ice age BALI’S volcano eruption could plunge the earth into a prolonged cold…[/FONT]
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Sounds pretty prescient.
Or to put it another way ... better line up excuses now before cooling begins in earnest.
Otherwise people may talk.
Or to put it another way ... they may become suspicious.
 
Another "scientific" thread with a link to the High-School educated Watts. Surprising? NO. Predictable? YES.
 
Opinion
[h=1]Some Thoughts on Climate: Difficult Not to be Skeptical[/h]Guest essay by Michael Greer I was surprised, pleasantly surprised, UCLA allowed the Chemistry & Biochemistry Department to have Professor William Happer speak skeptically about Climate Change at a Physical Chemistry Seminar, until I learned two Conservative Chemistry professors had to do it under the radar. Nevertheless, in a room that could hold under 100…
 
Opinion
[h=1]Some Thoughts on Climate: Difficult Not to be Skeptical[/h]Guest essay by Michael Greer I was surprised, pleasantly surprised, UCLA allowed the Chemistry & Biochemistry Department to have Professor William Happer speak skeptically about Climate Change at a Physical Chemistry Seminar, until I learned two Conservative Chemistry professors had to do it under the radar. Nevertheless, in a room that could hold under 100…

I learn a few things in High School, so I suppose Watts might have something to say. Maybe he has a jacket with letter on it, that he can show off.
 
Who predicted otherwise?

Kevin Trenberth

[h=3]What Role Does Climate Change Play in Tornadoes? - Scientific ...[/h]https://www.scientificamerican.com/.../kevin-trenberth-on-climate-change-and-tornad...



May 21, 2013 - In a July 2007 story for Scientific American, Trenberth predicted that climate changecould lead to more intense hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. Advertisement. [An edited transcript of the interview follows.] I know this kind of extreme weather is part of the territory in the middle of the country, but is climate ...
 
Kevin Trenberth

[h=3]What Role Does Climate Change Play in Tornadoes? - Scientific ...[/h]https://www.scientificamerican.com/.../kevin-trenberth-on-climate-change-and-tornad...



May 21, 2013 - In a July 2007 story for Scientific American, Trenberth predicted that climate changecould lead to more intense hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. Advertisement. [An edited transcript of the interview follows.] I know this kind of extreme weather is part of the territory in the middle of the country, but is climate ...

Hurricanes are not tornados :slapme:
 
Hurricanes are not tornados :slapme:

I know this kind of extreme weather is part of the territory in the middle of the country, but is climate change going to make such extreme weather more likely or more powerful?
Of course, tornadoes are very much a weather phenomenon. They come from certain thunderstorms, usually supercell thunderstorms that are in a wind shear environment that promotes rotation. That environment is most common in spring across the U.S. when the storm track is just the right distance from the Gulf [of Mexico] and other sources of moisture.
The main climate change connection is via the basic instability of the low-level air that creates the convection and thunderstorms in the first place. Warmer and moister conditions are the key for unstable air. The oceans are warmer because of climate change.
The climate change effect is probably only a 5 to 10 percent effect in terms of the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for 10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of three = 1.33.) So there is a chain of events, and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a supercell storm and one with a tornado is largely chance weather.

How does such a little global warming input translate into such a big effect in terms of damage?
There is a large level of natural variability, but it is when the natural variability is going in the same direction as climate change effects that we suddenly break records. We cross thresholds and record new extremes. A small effect can translate into a large impact under those conditions. It's the straw that breaks the camel's back.
 
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I know this kind of extreme weather is part of the territory in the middle of the country, but is climate change going to make such extreme weather more likely or more powerful?
Of course, tornadoes are very much a weather phenomenon. They come from certain thunderstorms, usually supercell thunderstorms that are in a wind shear environment that promotes rotation. That environment is most common in spring across the U.S. when the storm track is just the right distance from the Gulf [of Mexico] and other sources of moisture.
The main climate change connection is via the basic instability of the low-level air that creates the convection and thunderstorms in the first place. Warmer and moister conditions are the key for unstable air. The oceans are warmer because of climate change.
The climate change effect is probably only a 5 to 10 percent effect in terms of the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for 10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of three = 1.33.) So there is a chain of events, and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a supercell storm and one with a tornado is largely chance weather.

How does such a little global warming input translate into such a big effect in terms of damage?
There is a large level of natural variability, but it is when the natural variability is going in the same direction as climate change effects that we suddenly break records. We cross thresholds and record new extremes. A small effect can translate into a large impact under those conditions. It's the straw that breaks the camel's back.

I don't see any prediction about the frequency of tornados there.
 
It's there.

No, it isn't. Read the text again, and try to understand the words. Trenberth says nothing at all about the frequency of tornados here. He says that climate change and the resulting additional ocean heating will give rise to conditions more conducive to stormy weather, but leaves the question open as to whether that would translate specifically into more frequent tornados or not.

Why are you so desperate to see predictions proven wrong that you are inventing predictions that people never made?
 
No, it isn't. Read the text again, and try to understand the words. Trenberth says nothing at all about the frequency of tornados here. He says that climate change and the resulting additional ocean heating will give rise to conditions more conducive to stormy weather, but leaves the question open as to whether that would translate specifically into more frequent tornados or not.

Why are you so desperate to see predictions proven wrong that you are inventing predictions that people never made?

So when he says that the intensity of tornadoes will increase that does not translate to more of them.

OK, so why a twister does not get to the ground and become a tornado that is normal weather.

If more twisters turn into tornadoes that is global warming.

Heads you win, tails I lose. OK
 
Tim is correct.

The same dynamics that would cause increased intensities, should also cause increased numbers. Making events that wouldn't count, large enough to count.

Why can't you alarmists wrap your heads around the actual sciences?
 
No, it isn't. Read the text again, and try to understand the words. Trenberth says nothing at all about the frequency of tornados here. He says that climate change and the resulting additional ocean heating will give rise to conditions more conducive to stormy weather, but leaves the question open as to whether that would translate specifically into more frequent tornados or not.

Why are you so desperate to see predictions proven wrong that you are inventing predictions that people never made?

Trenberth was careful but his meaning was clear. Think of it as "dog whistle" climate alarmism.
 

Greetings, Jack. :2wave:

While the article was certainly accurate about failed predictions, the tongue-in-cheek comments on this link were just what I needed to laugh out loud as a counter-balance to a very cold, very "snow-squally" day here! Great, just great! :mrgreen: Thanks for posting it! :thumbs:
 
Greetings, Jack. :2wave:

While the article was certainly accurate about failed predictions, the tongue-in-cheek comments on this link were just what I needed to laugh out loud as a counter-balance to a very cold, very "snow-squally" day here! Great, just great! :mrgreen: Thanks for posting it! :thumbs:

Greetings, Polgara.:2wave:

Glad you liked it. After a high in the 70's yesterday our temperature is diving again today. Maybe more snow next week.:mrgreen:
 
Greetings, Polgara.:2wave:

Glad you liked it. After a high in the 70's yesterday our temperature is diving again today. Maybe more snow next week.:mrgreen:

Yesterday our highs were in the 30s, but currently it's 14 degrees here! :blah: My driveway was plowed this morning, but now you can hardly tell... :2mad: I wasn't planning on going anywhere since we've sure had ample warning about what was heading our way, but still......
 
Yesterday our highs were in the 30s, but currently it's 14 degrees here! :blah: My driveway was plowed this morning, but now you can hardly tell... :2mad: I wasn't planning on going anywhere since we've sure had ample warning about what was heading our way, but still......

Good luck.
 
Yesterday our highs were in the 30s, but currently it's 14 degrees here! :blah: My driveway was plowed this morning, but now you can hardly tell... :2mad: I wasn't planning on going anywhere since we've sure had ample warning about what was heading our way, but still......

Hi Pol, I know I am about 100 miles South of you and Wednesday was gorgeous. Sunshine and highs in the 40's. I made hubby go to the market with me because we needed so much stuff after two weeks of hideous lows, below zero temps. It wasn't bad Thursday in the morning and got a lot of errands done but then it started to rain and by afternoon temps started falling again. The rain turned to ice. People who left their cars out found them by Thursday evening encapsulated in ice. Friday it started to snow. We got between 5-6 inches with drifts close to 3 ft.. Hubby went out this morning and fired up his snowblower cleaned our driveway and 350 feet of sidewalk then cleaned the neighbor's driveway and their sidewalk and then the ole guy who is in poor health across the street cleaned his driveway and sidewalks. That heavy duty snow blower the kids got him one Christmas sure has been a blessing for us and others.

But you know it is JANUARY! To get a couple of days in the upper 30's and 40's is a real treat. Now it looks like we are going to have some really cold temps for the next 5 days but after that we will have a week of temps in the high 30's and low 40's. In January? That's sweeeeeeet.
 
Hi Pol, I know I am about 100 miles South of you and Wednesday was gorgeous. Sunshine and highs in the 40's. I made hubby go to the market with me because we needed so much stuff after two weeks of hideous lows, below zero temps. It wasn't bad Thursday in the morning and got a lot of errands done but then it started to rain and by afternoon temps started falling again. The rain turned to ice. People who left their cars out found them by Thursday evening encapsulated in ice. Friday it started to snow. We got between 5-6 inches with drifts close to 3 ft.. Hubby went out this morning and fired up his snowblower cleaned our driveway and 350 feet of sidewalk then cleaned the neighbor's driveway and their sidewalk and then the ole guy who is in poor health across the street cleaned his driveway and sidewalks. That heavy duty snow blower the kids got him one Christmas sure has been a blessing for us and others.

But you know it is JANUARY! To get a couple of days in the upper 30's and 40's is a real treat. Now it looks like we are going to have some really cold temps for the next 5 days but after that we will have a week of temps in the high 30's and low 40's. In January? That's sweeeeeeet.

My daughter who has lived in Texas for the past 14 years was promoted and transferred back here by her employer about a year and a half ago. She called yesterday to tell me that she thought it was raining - until she saw that the "raindrops were bouncing" when they hit the ground! She then asked me to remind her again why she ever left Texas! :lamo :lamo
 
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