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Irma evacuation nightmare: Next time some may not leave

Models have certainly improved but still have a long way to go. Until that time comes, it makes sense to err on the side of caution. However, cable news seems to take things to a whole 'nuther level. I was very thankful of our local station meterologists who tended to bring things back down to earth and provide much more realistic assessments to temper expectations.
 
Taylor said:
Models have certainly improved but still have a long way to go. Until that time comes, it makes sense to err on the side of caution. However, cable news seems to take things to a whole 'nuther level. I was very thankful of our local station meterologists who tended to bring things back down to earth and provide much more realistic assessments to temper expectations.
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So you are siding with those of us who are calling on the experts and public officials to do better work then...

If the media is spreading fear because maybe fear sells and maybe that's all they care about then those who know better need to be front and center calling them out.
 
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Hawkeye10 said:
So you are siding with those of us who are calling on the experts and public officials to do better work then...
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The models need to improve, but a lot of that is limited by resources (data they're able to collect) and technology (e.g. sizeable approximation error is introduced because we don't yet have the computing power to process some of the more complex equations involved). It will get better but it will take time.

What's silly is stuff like putting any stock in landfall predictions when the storm's still 4-5 days out.
 
Taylor said:
The models need to improve, but a lot of that is limited by resources (data they're able to collect) and technology (e.g. sizeable approximation error is introduced because we don't yet have the computing power to process some of the more complex equations involved). It will get better but it will take time.

What's silly is stuff like putting any stock in landfall predictions when the storm's still 4-5 days out.
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What do you make of the quote in post #29?
 
PirateMk1 said:
Same **** different day. People complain about stuff all the time, and sometimes the government cant win no matter what they do. I think the coverage was overblown, (pun intended). That said the government was right to put out the call to evacuate, despite the storm not being as strong as they thought. Better safe than sorry.
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Absolutely better safe than sorry - even a structure build to CAT5 code is useless if it is underwater. Being protected from wind and flying debris is great until a flood/storm surge is added to the picture.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Evacuations are costly traumatic and dangerous....they should only be called when necessary.

Those making the call need to be right more often than occasionally.
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The problem is that a better SWAG is still a SWAG - if you don't evacuate then only occasionally you will get killed is not a very good natural disaster plan.
 
Renae said:
News from The Associated Press

Gee... didn't I talk about this problem and got mocked for it? I did.
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There's a cat 5 monster headed for you. You are free to decide what to do. "mandatory" evacuations aren't really mandatory.

I don't listen much to the gubment, but the satellite and aircraft photos of storms - yeah. Maybe they'll be "fake news" by November, but those are the main sources I base decisions on. I have little time for TV anyway.

I rode this one out with a couple of pets I couldn't evacuate. I could have left up until 9pm last Sat. and headed (sans pets) to a place we reserved in Atlanta, but I chose not to.

If a cat 5 storm is headed your way and you think it's all B.S by "alarmists" and "fake news", hang out and bow before it - laugh in its face. Darwin... Did he invent trailer parks???
 
ttwtt78640 said:
The problem is that a better SWAG is still a SWAG - if you don't evacuate then only occasionally you will get killed is not a very good natural disaster plan.
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You evacuate only when it is the right thing to do, not along the Victim Culture Motif "In an abundance of caution", a very basic cold fact that people at the top of the food chain seem to have trouble understanding.....that and that they need to stay honest so that they can retain some credibility in case there ever comes a time when it is important that they be believed when they sound the alarms.
 
If you drive drunk, you could be killed. It is imperative that you not drive drunk.

"But Deuce! Last time I drove drunk nothing bad happened. STOP OVERHYPING THE DANGERS OF DRIVING DRUNK YOU LIBERAL MEDIA FIEND!"
 
This could leave over five million people without power.

YOU ****IN DUMB WEATHER PEOPLE ONLY FOUR MILLION ARE WITHOUT POWER WHATS WRONG WITH YOU
 
Taylor said:
Models have certainly improved but still have a long way to go. Until that time comes, it makes sense to err on the side of caution. However, cable news seems to take things to a whole 'nuther level. I was very thankful of our local station meterologists who tended to bring things back down to earth and provide much more realistic assessments to temper expectations.
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^^ This. My mother lives in North Alabama and was about to swallow her tongue, she was so worried. She was watching the Weather Channel, MSNBC and the rest, and she was just certain that we were all going to die in a pile. Even when I told her that our local meteorologist wasn't blowing everything out of proportion, she still could not be calmed. I listen to the local guys. They know our climate, they know our topography, they know a lot more about our situation than the doomsayers on the Weather Channel. The Weather Channel, to me, is like WebMD. You don't go to ask about a mole on WebMD, you don't go to the Weather Channel for local weather.
 
I look at it this way(having been through quite a few hurricanes),
If You are not in a storm surge area, and have a reasonable well built home,
you should be safe up to about a Cat3. A Cat4 and Cat5 is a different story.
One of the better local weather men in Houston says "run from the water, shelter from the wind".
 
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