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The West is on fire [W:86]

It is one of a series of ten rebuttals. Please see the thread:

[h=3]Rebuttals to Ten Common AGW Advocacy Talking Points[/h]

OK, so I looked at the one about wildfires. Mostly, it's opinion, but there are some graphs which can't be expanded to the point of being able to read the labels. One has to take this part at face value, then:

The number of fires and acreage affected since 1985 show the number of fires is
actually down slightly though the acreage burned had increased before leveling off
the last 20 years. The NWS tracks the number of days where conditions are conducive
to wildfires when they issue red-flag warnings. It is little changed.

I'm not sure down slightly from when. In the not so distant past, there was no provision for fighting wildfires, no smoke bombers, no fire crews, so fires in California would typically burn from the foothills to tree line, then go out. They would leave behind an area that would not burn again soon, as there would be no fuel. Currently, the Forest Service spends more than half of its budget fighting fires. Partly, that is because of past fire suppression and resultant fuel loads. Partly it is because the climate is drier and hotter. The biggest fire in history of the state, for example, happened not during fire season, but last December. That's an example of extremes of weather.
 
Oh, I don't think we're going to die, either. Ravens, coyotes, and humans are survivors, after all. Some species have already died out as climate is changing faster than they can adapt or evolve, but those three are not endangered by any means.

But winter nights becoming a bit warmer isn't really the major effect, or even necessarily one effect People back in the 19th. century didn't have a chance to read what the world's scientific organizations had to say about global warming, nor did they have online access to blogs like WUWT that attempt to disprove science with opinion and cherry picked data.
And yet diurnal and seasonal asymmetry is the primary effect of the added CO2.
This is what was found in 2016,
Diurnal asymmetry to the observed global warming - Davy - 2016 - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library
Here, we review the observed diurnal asymmetry in the global warming trend:
the night-time temperatures have increased more rapidly than day-time temperatures.
and,
There is a consistent pattern such that, as the world warms, it is the diurnal minimum temperature which increases more rapidly than the maximum temperature, leading to a decrease in the diurnal temperature range.
Not a lot different that the opening paragraph of Arrhenius, et al 1896,
A great deal has been written on the influence of the absorption of the
atmosphere upon the climate. Tyndail in particular has pointed out the enormous importance of this question.
To him it was chiefly the diurnal and annual variations of the temperature that were
lessoned by the circumstance.
You may believe as you like, but the data does not support catastrophic global warming.
What the data does show, is that the added CO2 appears to be causing an increase in the minimum temperatures.
 
OK, so I looked at the one about wildfires. Mostly, it's opinion, but there are some graphs which can't be expanded to the point of being able to read the labels. One has to take this part at face value, then:



I'm not sure down slightly from when. In the not so distant past, there was no provision for fighting wildfires, no smoke bombers, no fire crews, so fires in California would typically burn from the foothills to tree line, then go out. They would leave behind an area that would not burn again soon, as there would be no fuel. Currently, the Forest Service spends more than half of its budget fighting fires. Partly, that is because of past fire suppression and resultant fuel loads. Partly it is because the climate is drier and hotter. The biggest fire in history of the state, for example, happened not during fire season, but last December. That's an example of extremes of weather.

"Fire season" is a human construct to which nature is indifferent.
 
Oh, I don't think we're going to die, either. Ravens, coyotes, and humans are survivors, after all. Some species have already died out as climate is changing faster than they can adapt or evolve, but those three are not endangered by any means.

What species has died out as a result of global warming?
 
And yet diurnal and seasonal asymmetry is the primary effect of the added CO2.
This is what was found in 2016,
Diurnal asymmetry to the observed global warming - Davy - 2016 - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library

and,

Not a lot different that the opening paragraph of Arrhenius, et al 1896,

You may believe as you like, but the data does not support catastrophic global warming.
What the data does show, is that the added CO2 appears to be causing an increase in the minimum temperatures.

Exactly what I've said all along, and what the scientific community says: added CO2 is causing an increase in minimum temperatures.
It' also more pronounced at high elevations and at high and low latitudes, i.e., the arctic and antarctic, and the high mountains.

And the warming is also changing global weather patterns by altering the course of the jet stream.

So, no, let's not panic. It's not the end of civilization as we know it. It's just anthropogenic global warming.
 
"Fire season" is a human construct to which nature is indifferent.

Quite the opposite. It is nature that decides when fires happen If we were in charge, then there would be no wildfire season at all.
 
What species has died out as a result of global warming?

I copied and pasted your question in the google window, and came up with:

7 Species Hit Hard by Climate Change—Including One That's Already Extinct

and Global Warming Killing some Species

WASHINGTON — Animal and plant species have begun dying off or changing sooner than predicted because of global warming, a review of hundreds of research studies contends.

These fast-moving adaptations come as a surprise even to biologists and ecologists because they are occurring so rapidly.

Not sure if WUWT is in agreement though.

BTW, are you on board with Jack Hays, who says that global warming is real but not caused by humans, or are you now arguing that it's not happening at all? Just wondering where you're coming from on the issue.
 
Exactly what I've said all along, and what the scientific community says: added CO2 is causing an increase in minimum temperatures.
It' also more pronounced at high elevations and at high and low latitudes, i.e., the arctic and antarctic, and the high mountains.

And the warming is also changing global weather patterns by altering the course of the jet stream.

So, no, let's not panic. It's not the end of civilization as we know it. It's just anthropogenic global warming.
Actually the scientific based results of the added CO2 are minimal, with an expected direct response,
or forcing warming from doubling the CO2 level at about 1.1C.
This means that AGW is both real, and not of much concern.
The amount and location of the warming,and it's result are much more speculative.
If the effect, is more pronounced at the high and low latitudes, (that means everywhere), perhaps,
you meant the high latitudes, then why has there been almost no warming of the atmosphere in the Antarctic?
Is AGW altering the jet stream? maybe, but can you cite a source that has definitive proof?
 
"Fire season" is a human construct to which nature is indifferent.

Fire season is a human construct?

I do not recall a forest fire in Alberta starting in the period of time from Dec-early March in my lifetime
 
Actually the scientific based results of the added CO2 are minimal, with an expected direct response,
or forcing warming from doubling the CO2 level at about 1.1C.
This means that AGW is both real, and not of much concern.
The amount and location of the warming,and it's result are much more speculative.
If the effect, is more pronounced at the high and low latitudes, (that means everywhere), perhaps,
you meant the high latitudes, then why has there been almost no warming of the atmosphere in the Antarctic?
Is AGW altering the jet stream? maybe, but can you cite a source that has definitive proof?

High latitudes: Arctic
Low latitudes: Antarctic


Perhaps I should have said the polar regions.


The polar regions are particularly sensitive to small rises in the annual average temperature, they are sometimes referred to as "the canary in the coalmine" in that they show changes long before they can be seen elsewhere in the world. The mean annual air temperature of the Antarctic Peninsula has increased by nearly 3°C in the region in the last 50 years, the only comparable regions are in the Arctic. The temperature of the rest of Antarctica shows indications of rising at a slower rate.

link
 
From your first link:

Our use of fossil fuels to power our civilization is not causing droughts or floods.
If global warming is natural, then the use of fossil fuels has nothing to do with it.

It was Jack Hayes who said that human activities, i.e., burning fossil fuels, was not the issue, and that global warming was natural.

And then you said that!
 
High latitudes: Arctic
Low latitudes: Antarctic


Perhaps I should have said the polar regions.




link
Last time I checked they were both high latitudes 90 degrees North, 90 degrees South, low latitudes are tropics.
but ether way, CO2 is not affecting the Antarctic and the Arctic the same, perhaps some thing besides CO2 warming is occurring.
 
I copied and pasted your question in the google window, and came up with:

7 Species Hit Hard by Climate Change—Including One That's Already Extinct

and Global Warming Killing some Species



Not sure if WUWT is in agreement though.

BTW, are you on board with Jack Hays, who says that global warming is real but not caused by humans, or are you now arguing that it's not happening at all? Just wondering where you're coming from on the issue.

EXTINCT: Golden toad (Bufo periglenes). Along with the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus varius), also of Central America, the golden toad is among the very small number of species whose recent extinction has been attributed with medium confidence to climate change, according to Scholes and Pörtner. Last seen in 1989, the golden frog lived in mountaintop cloud forests that have disappeared due to drought and other climatic changes. Other confounding factors are involved, such as the deadly chytrid fungus, which has killed off many amphibians worldwide. (See: "Photos: Ten Most Wanted 'Extinct' Amphibians.")

Yeah, couldn't be the fungus that has killed of several other species at all.
 
The fires are happening because the people in California allow the wilderness to grow out of control in wet years and then all that growth is burned away in dry years.

The solution is to burn the growth a little bit at a time so that it doesn't cascade during the dry years. Even if we somehow ended Global warming. Ended every fossil fuel plant in every country in the world including the third world, California will still have dry years. The scientific consensus is we are past the climatologist point of no return anyways.
 
The fires are happening because the people in California allow the wilderness to grow out of control in wet years and then all that growth is burned away in dry years.

The solution is to burn the growth a little bit at a time so that it doesn't cascade during the dry years. Even if we somehow ended Global warming. Ended every fossil fuel plant in every country in the world including the third world, California will still have dry years. The scientific consensus is we are past the climatologist point of no return anyways.

Way to simplistic of a solution. What you are suggesting may work in the fine fuels (grass areas) and in Ponderosa Pine forest to reduce the duff layer. It would be useless in the chaparral areas (brush fields). Chaparral either burns or it doesn't. When it does it burns hot.

We also have the problem of exotic (non native plant species) like cheatgrass or red brome that are invader species that can come in after fires. In many cases they can choke out the native species resulting in type conversion of the area.

Part of the problem are houses built in high fire prone areas without taking any mitigating measures to reduce the risk of a wildfire taking the home out. It has been shown that the ember wash (fire brand carried by the wind) is the biggest cause of homes catching on fire from fires.
How to prevent your house from burning during a wildfire - Wildfire Today

Many of our forest are overgrown with way to many trees per acre. There are many reasons for why our forest have gotten unhealthy. Bottom line, nature will do resets. When it happens there is not a lot humans are going to do about it.

(for what it is worth, I spent 30 years in wildland fire management for a federal agency. My education is in Forestry and Wildland Fire).
 
You choose to say that the NASA/GRACE data is better than you having a look at the map of Greenland and looking to see if there could possibly be more water and ice coming out of it in high summer than the flow rate of the Mississippi.

Yes, I choose to say that NASA/GRACE data is better than eyeballing Greenland using Google Earth. NASA's numbers are actually based on GRACE measurements that give scientists data that can then be analyzed to actually come up an estimation of changes in ice mass. Your method is pretty much nothing more than a guess. You do understand the scientific method, do you not? Part of that method requires actual measurements. Your eyeballing doesn't count as a legitimate measurement.

If so is there more than twice that amount?

You will need to account for a total of 18 Mississippi months worth of flow out of Greenland to break even on ice mass.

I fully agree that there are thousands of streams flowing out of Greenland. Some are as big as 0.1% of the Mississippi.

Actually, there are many streams that are closer to 1%. And some rivers are about 25% or more based on width. Sure... most are probably not as deep as the Mississippi but their flow rates could be similar due to elevation drop. You certainly can't tell with your methodology.

I guess I could use your method and eyeball some stats. Let's say for the sake of argument that I find 100 rivers that have an average width of 10% of the Mississippi. And then add 500 smaller rivers and larger streams that are 1% and 1000 streams that are 0.1%. Do the math... that's 16 times the Mississippi. Then when you figure that the melt season is actually about 3 months long and not 1 I would double that 16 to 32. Then add ice loss due to evaporation and the caving of glaciers directly into the ocean it is entirely possible that Greenland is, in fact, losing ice. Lots of ice.

Not that I would present this kind of guess as any kind of real science but it is no worse than your wild guess that completely ignores many facts.

That you will deny your own observations in preferance to your chosen high priests is a very sad situation.

I'm not the one denying real science in favor of wild speculation.
 
And yet diurnal and seasonal asymmetry is the primary effect of the added CO2.
This is what was found in 2016,
Diurnal asymmetry to the observed global warming - Davy - 2016 - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library
Here, we review the observed diurnal asymmetry in the global warming trend:
the night-time temperatures have increased more rapidly than day-time temperatures.
and,
There is a consistent pattern such that, as the world warms, it is the diurnal minimum temperature which increases more rapidly than the maximum temperature, leading to a decrease in the diurnal temperature range.

Sorry, longview but you are, yet again, mischaracterizing the conclusion of a study. Nowhere in the study do they claim that diurnal and seasonal asymmetry is the primary effect of adding CO2 to the atmosphere. What they do show is that the warming trend of minimum temps is greater than the warming trend of max temps but they are both increasing. And the difference between the two is significantly less than the warming trend of both of them. What this study is really looking at is why we see these differences. From the conclusion:

While there are many factors which may asymmetrically affect the radiative forcing on the diurnal extreme temperatures, here, we demonstrate that the night-time temperatures are inherently more sensitive to perturbations to the radiation balance and will warm more rapidly on a uniform forcing (such as that from the build-up of greenhouse-gases).


longview said:
Not a lot different that the opening paragraph of Arrhenius, et al 1896,
A great deal has been written on the influence of the absorption of the
atmosphere upon the climate. Tyndail in particular has pointed out the enormous importance of this question.
To him it was chiefly the diurnal and annual variations of the temperature that were
lessoned by the circumstance.

And here you are mischaracterizing yet another study. Arrhenius is just saying what Tyndail believed at the time and nowhere that I can find does he support or confirm Tyndail's theory.
http://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf

longview said:
You may believe as you like, but the data does not support catastrophic global warming.
What the data does show, is that the added CO2 appears to be causing an increase in the minimum temperatures.

Actually, what the data shows is that CO2 is increasing both minimum and maximum temperatures. And if the feedbacks continue to increase like most serious scientists believe then climate change could become catastrophic. I know... you think that either the known feedbacks are suddenly going to stop getting worse or that some mysterious negative feedback is going to come out of no-where and limit AGW to levels that are no big deal. You go ahead and believe as you like but I and most scientists chose to believe otherwise.
 
Sorry, longview but you are, yet again, mischaracterizing the conclusion of a study. Nowhere in the study do they claim that diurnal and seasonal asymmetry is the primary effect of adding CO2 to the atmosphere. What they do show is that the warming trend of minimum temps is greater than the warming trend of max temps but they are both increasing. And the difference between the two is significantly less than the warming trend of both of them. What this study is really looking at is why we see these differences. From the conclusion:






And here you are mischaracterizing yet another study. Arrhenius is just saying what Tyndail believed at the time and nowhere that I can find does he support or confirm Tyndail's theory.
http://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf



Actually, what the data shows is that CO2 is increasing both minimum and maximum temperatures. And if the feedbacks continue to increase like most serious scientists believe then climate change could become catastrophic. I know... you think that either the known feedbacks are suddenly going to stop getting worse or that some mysterious negative feedback is going to come out of no-where and limit AGW to levels that are no big deal. You go ahead and believe as you like but I and most scientists chose to believe otherwise.

No mischaracterization, The Davy study was looking at diurnal asymmetry within the observed warming.
if the observed warming is mostly from the added CO2, then the CO2 is what is causing the asymmetrical warming.
Arrhenius opened his paper with why Tyndail was not concerned with CO2, it's effects were mostly lessening
the diurnal and seasonal temperature range, by increasing the minimum temperatures.
While the data shows increases in both T-Min, and T-Max, the increases in T-Min are roughly 3 times greater
than increases in T-Max, This is best evidenced by Davy fig-1
Davy_fig_1.webp
Davy, points out that the conclusion of Karl, et al 1993 was,
DTR is significantly reduced largely because of strong increase in
Tmin in wintertime (December through May) and in high latitudes
As to the feedbacks, There are feedbacks, but the size and even the sign are in question.
The empirical support for the aggregate of the many types of feedbacks, is that they are minimal, and possibly slightly positive.
Consider that IF the ECS from 2XCO2 were 3 C, that would mean that the magic sky amplifier,
took all input warming, and amplified it by, 3C/1.1C=2.72 times, then output of that amplified response
itself would then be amplified by another 2.72 times, and so on , and so on, with each cycle limited by the
ECS latency time. The problem with that concept is that The .6C of warming from the bottom of the little ice age,
would have seen roughly 2 cycles, so lets play it out.
1850, the little ice age is over, it has warmed .6C since the low end, over the next 70 years the climate amplifier will
reach roughly 70% of equilibrium, so (.6 X 2.72)X .7=1.14 C.
1920 to 1990, another cycle and completion of the first cycle,
(1.14 X 2.72)X.7=2.17C +.48 C(from the first cycle)=2.65C.
Now since we have only warmed roughly 1.1 C since 1850, and roughly .64C of that is attributed to added CO2,
then the amplified feedback must be lower than that which would cause an ECS of 3 C.
 
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