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Irma About Owns the Record Book

Media_Truth said:
You've quoted the NOAA in the past. It's my turn to quote them: "Tropical cyclones will have substantially higher rainfall rates."
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.

There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the occurrence of very intense tropical cyclone in some basins–an increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm intensity. This increase in intense storm occurrence is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical cyclones.

Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones to have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day ones, with a model-projected increase of about 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm center.
Click to expand...
I have to wonder if they update their page often, since the IPCC A1B scenario is from 2001.
 
longview said:
Good morning Russell, there was a discussion a few years ago about if AGW would in fact cause more or stronger hurricanes.
One general idea was that global warming reduced the temperature difference between the equator and the poles,
and that the storms were driven by temperature differences.
The reality is that Tropical cyclones are complex and our understanding of them and any relationship
to AGW is minimal at best, and incorrect at worst.
Click to expand...

That applies to extra-tropical cyclones, or storms which originate outside the tropics such as the typical winter storm. You can see the difference on a weather map. Extra-tropical cyclones have warm, cold and occluded fronts involved in their circulation. They do feed off the temperature difference of the involved air masses and are happy over either land or water. In meteorological terms this is termed baroclinicity.

Tropical cyclones have no fronts involved in their circulation. They are purely convective in nature and form in atmospheric regions we call barotropic where there is no variation in air mass from one region to another. These storms feed exclusively from the heat derived from the warm water (79 -80F at a minimum) they travel over. When they lose that source of heat and evaporated moisture they weaken and die.
 
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Jack Hays said:
My common sense is that counterintuitive outcomes are common.
Click to expand...

If you are to have an informed opinion then you must have some knowledge of what you speak. Tropical cyclones result from a set of physical factors, the main ones we are well aware of. Some of the less well understood factors confound our understanding. Given what we do know, the physics dictates that a warmer world will result in greater potential for more powerful tropical cyclones. You can play the denial game all you want...that's what deniers of scientific understanding do. You overplay the uncertainties in rebuking the well known major players.
 
Russell797 said:
If you are to have an informed opinion then you must have some knowledge of what you speak. Tropical cyclones result from a set of physical factors, the main ones we are well aware of. Some of the less well understood factors confound our understanding. Given what we do know, the physics dictates that a warmer world will result in greater potential for more powerful tropical cyclones. You can play the denial game all you want...that's what deniers of scientific understanding do. You overplay the uncertainties in rebuking the well known major players.
Click to expand...

The simple fact is that despite warming in recent decades there has been no increase in frequency or intensity of hurricanes. The data are the data.
 
Jack Hays said:
The simple fact is that despite warming in recent decades there has been no increase in frequency or intensity of hurricanes. The data are the data.
Click to expand...

That's because a small sample size will not indicate the long term trend. It's the same as saying in 2011 that the world had not warmed since 1998.
 
Russell797 said:
That applies to extra-tropical cyclones, or storms which originate outside the tropics such as the typical winter storm. You can see the difference on a weather map. Extra-tropical cyclones have warm, cold and occluded fronts involved in their circulation. They do feed off the temperature difference of the involved air masses and are happy over either land or water. In meteorological terms this is termed baroclinicity.

Tropical cyclones have no fronts involved in their circulation. They are purely convective in nature and form in atmospheric regions we call barotropic where there is no variation in air mass from one region to another. These storms feed exclusively from the heat derived from the warm water (79 -80F at a minimum) they travel over. When they lose that source of heat and evaporated moisture they weaken and die.
Click to expand...

They are still heat engine, and one of the core tenants of AGW was the tropical heating
at 30,000 feet, reducing the difference between a warm ocean and a cold sky.
https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1997/1997_Hansen_ha01900k.pdf
Plate 2.
Last time I checked heat engines loose efficiency and the difference between temperatures reduces.
 
Russell797 said:
That's because a small sample size will not indicate the long term trend. It's the same as saying in 2011 that the world had not warmed since 1998.
Click to expand...

How about almost 50 years?

Now almost 50-years of global hurricane data. No trends in frequency in number of named storms or those that reach hurricane-force

DJn5VB7U8AAkdeG.jpg





11:13 AM - 13 Sep 2017

5 Hurricane Charts Climate Alarmists Don't Want You to See as They ...

www.climatedepot.com/.../5-hurricane-charts-climate-alarmists-dont-want-you-to-see-...


Sep 5, 2017 - Dr. Ryan Maue, a Phd.-credentialed meteorologist and hurricane expert, ... showing no discernible uptick in the frequency of global hurricanes.

[h=3]Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy[/h]
global_running_acejpg.jpg




 
longview said:
They are still heat engine, and one of the core tenants of AGW was the tropical heating
at 30,000 feet, reducing the difference between a warm ocean and a cold sky.
https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1997/1997_Hansen_ha01900k.pdf
Plate 2.
Last time I checked heat engines loose efficiency and the difference between temperatures reduces.
Click to expand...

Nevertheless, lapse rate is dwarfed by the latent heat of evaporation regarding CAPE or convective available potential energy. You are correct that if warming occurs aloft at a rate greater than warming at the surface then that reduction in difference would result in a reduction in atmospheric instability. I know of no reason for that to be the case however because sea surface temperature is warming as well.

At 1C degree of warming a saturated parcel of air will contain 7% more water vapor. That's potential energy to be dissipated in powering the storm and that additional moisture must be rung out and returned to the surface. Little or no change in lapse rate, yet greater latent heat yields what?
 
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Russell797 said:
That applies to extra-tropical cyclones, or storms which originate outside the tropics such as the typical winter storm. You can see the difference on a weather map. Extra-tropical cyclones have warm, cold and occluded fronts involved in their circulation. They do feed off the temperature difference of the involved air masses and are happy over either land or water. In meteorological terms this is termed baroclinicity.

Tropical cyclones have no fronts involved in their circulation. They are purely convective in nature and form in atmospheric regions we call barotropic where there is no variation in air mass from one region to another. These storms feed exclusively from the heat derived from the warm water (79 -80F at a minimum) they travel over. When they lose that source of heat and evaporated moisture they weaken and die.
Click to expand...

The temperature differential that these tropical storms are working over is that between the warm area they are in and the cooler zone 40 degrees North or South where the air drops down again.

Up at the tropics, especially the equator, and down at 40 degrees N/S.
 
Jack Hays said:
How about almost 50 years?

[FONT=&][/FONT][FONT=&]Now almost 50-years of global hurricane data. No trends in frequency in number of named storms or those that reach hurricane-force
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]
DJn5VB7U8AAkdeG.jpg




[/FONT]
[FONT=&]11:13 AM - 13 Sep 2017

5 Hurricane Charts Climate Alarmists Don't Want You to See as They ...

www.climatedepot.com/.../5-hurricane-charts-climate-alarmists-dont-want-you-to-see-...


Sep 5, 2017 - Dr. Ryan Maue, a Phd.-credentialed meteorologist and hurricane expert, ... showing no discernible uptick in the frequency of global hurricanes.

[/FONT][h=3]Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy[/h]
global_running_acejpg.jpg



[FONT=&]
[/FONT]
Click to expand...

Like i said earlier, the expectation is a theoretical one based on rather concrete physics..It will require some real head scratching if tropical cyclone energy dissipation does not increase as the available energy increases.

There are very concrete physical reasons tropical cyclones can form only in the tropics. There are real physical reasons precipitation is heavier within warm air masses than in cooler ones. The warmer the conditions the more water will be cycled from the oceans to the atmosphere and back again....it's that simple. In doing so energy is dissipated....we call concentrated areas of dissipation storms.
 
Russell797 said:
Like i said earlier, the expectation is a theoretical one based on rather concrete physics..It will require some real head scratching if tropical cyclone energy dissipation does not increase as the available energy increases.

There are very concrete physical reasons tropical cyclones can form only in the tropics. There are real physical reasons precipitation is heavier within warm air masses than in cooler ones. The warmer the conditions the more water will be cycled from the oceans to the atmosphere and back again....it's that simple. In doing so energy is dissipated....we call concentrated areas of dissipation storms.
Click to expand...

And yet . . .
 
Tim the plumber said:

The temperature differential that these tropical storms are working over is that between the warm area they are in and the cooler zone 40 degrees North or South where the air drops down again.

Up at the tropics, especially the equator, and down at 40 degrees N/S.
Click to expand...

You are speaking of the general atmospheric circulation on the largest of scale. That is NOT what powers tropical cyclones.

The relevance of what you suggest is this:
A region near the equator which shifts north and south with the seasons is called the Intertropical Convergence Zone or ITZ. Air is generally rising within that zone providing the "lift" needed to develop areas of convection above the ocean surface. Most tropical cyclones develop near that region for that reason. At the ITZ converging air from the north and south has nowhere to go but up.

The sinking air (high pressure) at 30 - 40 degrees steers the tropical cyclone in it path, but does not feed the storm. The warm ocean surface feeds the storm.
 
Russell797 said:
You are speaking of the general atmospheric circulation on the largest of scale. That is NOT what powers tropical cyclones.

The relevance of what you suggest is this:
A region near the equator which shifts north and south with the seasons is called the Intertropical Convergence Zone or ITZ. Air is generally rising within that zone providing the "lift" needed to develop areas of convection above the ocean surface. Most tropical cyclones develop near that region for that reason. At the ITZ converging air from the north and south has nowhere to go but up.

The sinking air (high pressure) at 30 - 40 degrees steers the tropical cyclone in it path, but does not feed the storm. The warm ocean surface feeds the storm.
Click to expand...

The bit where they are rising is due to the fact that the air above them has decended at 40 degrees.

That is the temperature differntial that is powering the system.

With out this difference in temperature there would be no such rising of air and no such storm.
 
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