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IRMA Worst Case: It misses FL entirely.

ecofarm said:
This storm has been standard routine for FL and it will remain the same. Texas gets storms once every few decades, FL gets them, it seems, every year.

Regarding volcanoes, after St. Helens I doubt anyone is taking chances. Maybe you saw that in a movie?

Me keeping power and enjoying life as usual, instead of days or weeks of no AC or internet, is definitely not the worst case scenario, thank you.

I hope the storm goes to you.
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There is always active monitoring on the volcanoes here in the northwest. Mt Hood is expected to go next.
 
Beaudreaux said:
I apologize for this, but on this particular issue my friend, I'll rely on my professional experience in emergency management and the facts on the ground, rather than extrapolations of unrelated studies (a huge difference between participating in a drill, and a failed response which makes you question the knowledge, capabilities, and authority of the officials, which is the subject of this thread) that skew the truth.
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But really, if Irma misses Florida completely, that's the worst case? That would actually be a good thing, wouldn't it?
 
Renae said:
THANK YOU! Someone that get's it, understands my point. Forecasters work with emergency management as a rule, normally it's just the local or regional officials, but we all worry about false alarms. About scaring people when there is no need. When I saw the models generate that hard right turn into Florida my first thought was "Oh ****... they are gonna panic that state, I hope it actually comes to pass..."

It is the ultimate catch 22, ignore the models and wait too long or pull the trigger on getting people out of potential harm's way that ends up being seen as needless.
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Here's the latest aircraft recon. It shows it wobbling, like I said above, but the last fix shows a more west of west northwest movement than a northerly trend.

Whatever graphics you want, I got them. I have them all up on a number of large screens watching for trends as I make phone calls coordinate resources, and type posts to you guys.

recon_AF307-2611A-IRMA.png
 
X Factor said:
But really, if Irma misses Florida completely, that's the worst case? That would actually be a good thing, wouldn't it?
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That's not what he's saying. He's saying it from a point of view regarding the long term safety of citizens regarding their trust in the weather service, and their trust in the government officials when they are told to evacuate.

Not that a hurricane NOT hitting is preferable to a hurricane hitting.
 
Look at it this way:

For every hit we have 3 near misses. FL evacuates, etc the same every time. And it always will. There's no "boy who cried wolf" when 1/4 hit. It's more like "due for".
 
Anyone who says they don't hope the storm makes landfall somewhere else is either stupid, or lying.
 
Beaudreaux said:
As someone that works in emergency management, I completely understand the point you're making. And trust me when I say, there are hundreds of officials in Florida that are thinking the same thing.

Ignore the people in this thread that are trying to spin what you said into some sick form of a sadomasochistic wish for death and destruction, because you, and I, and the emergency management and weather officials in Florida know better.

Edit: Also, the center has already gone west past due south of Miami and it's not started a serious turn yet, it's wobbling, but not a true turn.

eyw_None_anim.gif
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I like this better:

Hurricane Irma | Google Crisis Map
 
ecofarm said:
SE Florida and hurricanes is not your experience. We will do the same, every time. Always have. We know the path changes. Here it's simply not worth the risk because it hits often enough. The more experience, the better.
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You can speak for you, but not the entire population of Miami-Dade. And yes, south Florida is a huge part of my experience. From Andrew, to the year of Katrina and Wilma, then Charley, Francis, and so on. Without giving specifics, I have been in the Miami-Dade EOC, the Monroe County EOC, the AT&T building (what used as an EOC) in Key West (Georges) numerous times, and will be down there again tomorrow, if Irma does what looks now like a miraculous hard right turn.

I tell you what, if she turns, and ends up making landfall there, I'll meet you in Florida City, at city hall, and I'll pop the top on a beer with you from the cooler in the back of my truck.

Deal?
 
Beaudreaux said:
That's not what he's saying. He's saying it from a point of view regarding the long term safety of citizens regarding their trust in the weather service, and their trust in the government officials when they are told to evacuate.

Not that a hurricane NOT hitting is preferable to a hurricane hitting.
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It doesn't really seem all that reasonable to me though. It would better better to have Irma hit Florida so people know to take their weather service seriously? Personally, I think it would be much better if all that prep turned out to be for nothing.
 
Beaudreaux said:
You can speak for you, but not the entire population of Miami-Dade. And yes, south Florida is a huge part of my experience. From Andrew, to the year of Katrina and Wilma, then Charley, Francis, and so on. Without giving specifics, I have been in the Miami-Dade EOC, the Monroe County EOC, the AT&T building (what used as an EOC) in Key West (Georges) numerous times, and will be down there again tomorrow, if Irma does what looks now like a miraculous hard right turn.

I tell you what, if she turns, and ends up making landfall there, I'll meet you in Florida City, at city hall, and I'll pop the top on a beer with you from the cooler in the back of my truck.

Deal?
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I grew up here. Been through a few hurricanes and countless near misses. I've seen the stats and studies on the effect of a near miss on evacuation and preparation. Evac and prep is always better after a near miss or hit. It's worse when there hasn't been a storm for a while, as people get lazy.

Deal.
 
X Factor said:
It doesn't really seem all that reasonable to me though. It would better better to have Irma hit Florida so people know to take their weather service seriously? Personally, I think it would be much better if all that prep turned out to be for nothing.
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There's no really good way to put it. It's like saying an explosion is better than a slow conflagration if you're going to die anyway. I've just seen too many examples of where the government has called for an evacuation and no one listened because of the "it isn't really going to come here, they're always wrong with their forecasts" mentality.

I wouldn't have started a thread with that title, because too many are focusing on that single point, and not the larger picture here, but I fully understand why she did.
 
X Factor said:
It doesn't really seem all that reasonable to me though. It would better better to have Irma hit Florida so people know to take their weather service seriously? Personally, I think it would be much better if all that prep turned out to be for nothing.
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A lot of my time in Corpus was doing Hurricane management, and we had it drilled in our heads the the "Big picture" danger of getting the forecast wrong. If people feel they are fleeing for no reason, they are less likely to the next time. Would it be great if Irma missed FL? Sure. But then it enters the Gulf of Mexico and there are few places that storm could go without causing massive problems for someone. There really isn't anything in the forecast that could break it up. Hell it makes the crossing in everywhere from the FL Panhandle to Mexico have to be on alert.
 
Renae said:
A lot of my time in Corpus was doing Hurricane management, and we had it drilled in our heads the the "Big picture" danger of getting the forecast wrong. If people feel they are fleeing for no reason, they are less likely to the next time. Would it be great if Irma missed FL? Sure. But then it enters the Gulf of Mexico and there are few places that storm could go without causing massive problems for someone. There really isn't anything in the forecast that could break it up. Hell it makes the crossing in everywhere from the FL Panhandle to Mexico have to be on alert.
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That's not at all what you said though. You said it would be bad juju (or something like that) if it didn't hit Florida. Your thread title is how it would be the worst case for it to miss Florida. Did you feel the same way about Harvey?
 
ecofarm said:
Hurricane preparedness in FL is routine. We're not changing anything because of wherever this storm goes. We'll do things the same as this and the last dozen times.
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stay safe, eco. i hope that it misses you and yours.
 
X Factor said:
That's not at all what you said though. You said it would be bad juju (or something like that) if it didn't hit Florida. Your thread title is how it would be the worst case for it to miss Florida. Did you feel the same way about Harvey?
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I forgot to add, "For Florida, short term in regards to avoiding the damage, yes" Sorry got ahead of my fingers.
 
Renae said:
I haven't liked the model runs. At all. One of my old shipmates, a now retired AGC who works for NOAA as a forecaster and I have been talking about this. I do not trust 90 degree turns in weather. Don't care what the models say, I get why they are saying, I can see the "yeah it should turn" but... the more powerful a system is the more likely it is to create it's own steering currents.

Anyway, if that thing misses FL entirely, that's bad, bad juju.

Why? Look at the mass panic and evacuation.

What is the likelihood those folks evacuate next time a "BIG STORM" is "GONNA HIT FL!!!" They will stay pat, and the death toll will be way higher than if they evac'd. Volcanologist have that same dilemma, raise a false alarm and next time they thing the mountain is gonna blow people ignore them, the boy who cried wolf syndrome.

Best thing now is that thing turns in a hurry, if it punches through... it could go anywhere. The entire gulf coast will be at risk and the conditions out there well.. Irma will spin up again cause the Gulf is ripe as we recently seen.
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We obviously have a better picture of the path than when you started this thread yesterday.

I think there will be a fair bit of skepticism regardless...consider the complete shift in primary concern from the east coast to the west...

regardless of where Irma were to head, it is massive enough that the damage in Florida and elsewhere will get the attention of most

there will always be those among us willing to take chances, make a stand...I can relate

recall Harvey...people evacuating Corpus Christi...I remember one lady being interviewed who considered going to Houston to stay with family...the reason they decided to stay was because of two bridges that might suffer damage...might make it hard to get home and back to work...course change...good thing they decided to hunker down...and not move into the path of worse damage...that may result in people being less skeptical regarding the magnitude even though they question the accuracy of the predicted landfall and path

When we are finding ourselves with weather on the planet that can be claimed normal, common, nothing new to see here folks...accurate only by people over one hundred years old...most should conclude otherwise...and we go on making some adjustments...break out the solar panels, we're out of gas.
 
AYSM said:
We obviously have a better picture of the path than when you started this thread yesterday.

I think there will be a fair bit of skepticism regardless...consider the complete shift in primary concern from the east coast to the west...

regardless of where Irma were to head, it is massive enough that the damage in Florida and elsewhere will get the attention of most

there will always be those among us willing to take chances, make a stand...I can relate

recall Harvey...people evacuating Corpus Christi...I remember one lady being interviewed who considered going to Houston to stay with family...the reason they decided to stay was because of two bridges that might suffer damage...might make it hard to get home and back to work...course change...good thing they decided to hunker down...and not move into the path of worse damage...that may result in people being less skeptical regarding the magnitude even though they question the accuracy of the predicted landfall and path

When we are finding ourselves with weather on the planet that can be claimed normal, common, nothing new to see here folks...accurate only by people over one hundred years old...most should conclude otherwise...and we go on making some adjustments...break out the solar panels, we're out of gas.
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I'm happy it finally turned. Took it long enough. Wish it would have turned farther east and gone harmlessly out into the N atlantic to die.
 
IRMA Worst Case: It misses TX entirely.
 
Renae said:
I'm happy it finally turned. Took it long enough. Wish it would have turned farther east and gone harmlessly out into the N atlantic to die.
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But wouldn't that have been worst case scenario according to you?
 
ecofarm said:
IRMA Worst Case: It misses TX entirely.
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Well thank goodness she hit you ****ers and could teach you all a lesson about taking storm warnings seriously.


Srsly, how are doing?
 
X Factor said:
But wouldn't that have been worst case scenario according to you?
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X... are you trolling at this point?
I think you are. You're a pretty smart guy, normally. You're taking my statement completely out of context, and frankly I don't want to believe you're doing so from a position of stupidity.

It was explained to you WHY I made that statement.

Because they did a mass evacuation, if the Hurricane misses people will be less likely to flee the next hurricane. THAT is a big problem because that could lead to a lot of dead people.

Are you saying you want to see people die? Do you relish the thought of tens of thousands of people ignoring an evacuation order and being drowned in a storm surge?
 
Renae said:
X... are you trolling at this point?
I think you are. You're a pretty smart guy, normally. You're taking my statement completely out of context, and frankly I don't want to believe you're doing so from a position of stupidity.

It was explained to you WHY I made that statement.

Because they did a mass evacuation, if the Hurricane misses people will be less likely to flee the next hurricane. THAT is a big problem because that could lead to a lot of dead people.

Are you saying you want to see people die? Do you relish the thought of tens of thousands of people ignoring an evacuation order and being drowned in a storm surge?
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I just understand how Eco's reading this. I can just imagine if someone said to me that they really hope Harvey nails Texas because it would be for Texas' own good. Your explanation falls flat to me. Do I want people to die? I'm not the one saying I want Irma to rough Florida up some and here you are, in this thread, saying thank goodness it did. At the very least, you could have phrased all this far better.
 
X Factor said:
I just understand how Eco's reading this. I can just imagine if someone said to me that they really hope Harvey nails Texas because it would be for Texas' own good. Your explanation falls flat to me. Do I want people to die? I'm not the one saying I want Irma to rough Florida up some and here you are, in this thread, saying thank goodness it did. At the very least, you could have phrased all this far better.
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One person on the forum took Renae's post that way. I'm pretty sure it's an intentional misinterpretation.
 
apdst said:
One person on the forum took Renae's post that way. I'm pretty sure it's an intentional misinterpretation.
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Personally, I cannot fathom any way I would be ok with someone saying it's a good thing Harvey hit Texas.
 
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