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Most of The World Could Be 100% Powered With Renewables by 2050


[h=1]Ruling Climate Fanatics Obliterated in Aussie State Election[/h]Guest essay by Eric Worrall h/t JoNova – South Australians have finally tired of economic misery and expensive, unreliable green electricity; the government which created the mess has just been crushed at the ballot box, 25 seats to 18. Jay Weatherill quits as leader after losing South Australian election Outgoing premier says he will stay…
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Bergslagstroll said:
I linked to the report from Stanford that show the possibility of 100 percent renewables by 2050 in most of the world. While you linked to an earlier study that showed that it was possible with 100 percent renewables in the continental USA bewteen 2050 and 2055. According the study you linked to the cost of energy by then will be roughly the same with 100 percent renewables as with conventional sources. That if you exclude social costs, if you include social cost the cost of renewables energy will be much less.



Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Lord of Planar said:
The study I linked is the one they footnoted for your reference.
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They only talked cost of the electricity, while ignoring transportation costs and saying hydrogen would be used. I'm pretty sure delivery costs are not retail rates with all the taxes and fees attached. I'm pretty sure it ignored the transmission and distribution costs also.

Class...

Hydrogen is expensive, and will more than double transportation costs!
 
Australian elections: Left-Green lose — Weatherill’s revolutionary battery powered state runs out of power


The government running the renewables crash-test-dummy state of the world has lost

In South Australia, Jay Weatherill is gone. Resigned. Tally so far: Libs win 24 seats, Labor 18. Though according to commenters SA voters were choosing between Lite-Left and Hopeless-Left. The new premier will likely be less-bad. Xenophon (small alternate non-establishment player) was crushed. He didn’t side with either Labor or Libs, so voters probably felt they couldn’t afford to sit on the fence and risk more years of Weatherill’s reckless industry-destroying state government.
The Greens are down from 8.7% to 6.6%, a fall of 25% in their popularity. (Not that I could find any news headlines to that effect).

The message for the soft left:
Chris Kenny: [A Lib win] … will flash a warning to Labor in Victoria, Queensland and Canberra about the perils of ambitious renewable energy targets prioritising climate gestures over electricity affordability and reliability.
The Libs appear to have made the most of hi-tech analytic campaigning. The Kochs and others in the US have set up i360:
Through i360 the SA Liberals believe they have progressed to a new level of targeted campaigning… the MP called up a marginal seat, much like finding a suburb on Google Maps, then zoomed in to a street where pins identified addresses deemed to house swinging voters. Deeper dives on households contained genders, ages, voting intentions or lack thereof as well as policy interests. The information is collated from the party’s existing Feedback system, updates from doorknocking and calls, responses to surveys conducted via email, online or phone calls plus census data and the harvesting of social media data. This is Big Brother meets grassroots campaigning. Neither the data nor the technology is much use without quality information fed in and strong analysis leading to the right strategies, along with diligent personalised attention in follow-up visits and communications.
Billionaire US Republican sponsors Charles and David Koch are major investors in the firm, which openly canvasses only for “free-market” candidates. The SA Liberals purchased a product licence and have worked with i360 to modify systems for compulsory and preferential voting. Motivated by the frustration of 2014 where, despite a huge popular vote win, just a few hundred votes in the right seats would have made all the difference,…
–The Australian​
Commenter RickWill on SA

The Libs are offering only 40,000 household batteries compared with Labor 50,000. They are also planning a stronger link to NSW. That will enable the good people of NSW to share the pain of high power prices experienced first in SA and now in Victoria due to the way intermittent generators destroy grid economics.
An interconnector to NSW will “spread the misery” – as both RickWill and Graeme No 3 point out. SA will be able to milk the national RET subsidies longer, and avoid paying for its own stable base. In NSW, increasing the access to subsidized solar and wind power will hurt the cheap providers there, destroying the profits of the cheapest generators.
In Victoria, in one seat, Greens lose to Labor, blame internal bickering . . .


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Good news to see that Green Socialists are losing ground. They lost some in Germany too as their insane 100% Renewable Plan causing huge price increases and generating instability in the grid distribution system.
 
Lord of Planar said:
They only talked cost of the electricity, while ignoring transportation costs and saying hydrogen would be used. I'm pretty sure delivery costs are not retail rates with all the taxes and fees attached. I'm pretty sure it ignored the transmission and distribution costs also.

Class...

Hydrogen is expensive, and will more than double transportation costs!
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The study you linked to have an estimated cost for all energy sectors while also including long-distance transmission, storage and H2.

The 2050 delivered social (business plus health and climate) cost of all WWS including grid integration (electricity and heat generation, long-distance transmission, storage, and H2) to power all energy sectors of CONUS is ∼11.37 (8.5–15.4) ¢/kWh in 2013 dollars (Table 2).
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Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

While at the same time renewable energy have drastically outperformed projected growth. While the cost continues to drop.

One chart shows how solar energy growth is skyrocketing compared to predictions - Business Insider Nordic

http://fs-unep-centre.org/publications/global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-2017

That at the same you will likely will see an increase in new energy sources during the next decades, for example in wave and tidal energy. So, the projection from the study in the OP and the projection you linked to are probably too conservative. That you will see a both faster and cheaper transition to renewable energy. Thereby further increasing the economical benefits with renewable energy.

That this is very good, just think of the social cost of fossil fuel that is trillion of dollars each year globally according to the IMF.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sonew070215a

Or the costly and devasting wars western countries have though in the middle east there USA continue to have military bases in brutal and fundamentalist dictatorships. There for example Saudi Arabia have under many decades used their western oil money to found fundamentalism and terrorism all around the world.
 
Sunsettommy said:
Good news to see that Green Socialists are losing ground. They lost some in Germany too as their insane 100% Renewable Plan causing huge price increases and generating instability in the grid distribution system.
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Renewable energy is more and more becoming a bipartisan issue. For example, Denmark where wind turbines delivered 43.6 percent of total electricity consumption in 2017 under their right-wing government.

https://www.dailyscandinavian.com/2017-new-wind-energy-record-denmark/

https://www.thelocal.dk/20171206/denmarks-green-energy-grows-faster-than-expected

While India under their conservative BJP government plan to have 57 percent of their electricity from non fossil fuel sources by 2027.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/21/india-renewable-energy-paris-climate-summit-target
 
Bergslagstroll said:
Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Exposed for the nonsense it is.

[h=3]Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100 - PNAS[/h]www.pnas.org/content/114/26/6722
by CTM Clack - ‎2017 - ‎Cited by 28 - ‎Related articles
Jun 19, 2017 - Christopher T. M. Clack, Staffan A. Qvist, Jay Apt, Morgan Bazilian, Adam R. Brandt, Ken Caldeira, Steven J. Davis, Victor Diakov, Mark A. Handschy, .... Jacobson et al. (11) along with additional colleagues in a companion article (12) attempt to show the feasibility of supplying all energy end uses (in the ...
 
Jack Hays said:
Exposed for the nonsense it is.

[h=3]Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100 - PNAS[/h]www.pnas.org/content/114/26/6722
by CTM Clack - ‎2017 - ‎Cited by 28 - ‎Related articles
Jun 19, 2017 - Christopher T. M. Clack, Staffan A. Qvist, Jay Apt, Morgan Bazilian, Adam R. Brandt, Ken Caldeira, Steven J. Davis, Victor Diakov, Mark A. Handschy, .... Jacobson et al. (11) along with additional colleagues in a companion article (12) attempt to show the feasibility of supplying all energy end uses (in the ...
Click to expand...
Without some form of large scale viable energy storage, the current renewable energy sources,
Wind and solar, lack the full time duty cycle required of a baseline grid source.
 
Bergslagstroll said:
The study you linked to have an estimated cost for all energy sectors while also including long-distance transmission, storage and H2.

<snip>
Click to expand...

It does not compare it to today's costs. It might be relatively low cost for renewable energy, but it is not low cost compared to what we spend today. It will be at least 50% greater

No way in hell hydrogen will be cheaper than fuels today.
 
Bergslagstroll said:
Renewable energy is more and more becoming a bipartisan issue. For example, Denmark where wind turbines delivered 43.6 percent of total electricity consumption in 2017 under their right-wing government.

https://www.dailyscandinavian.com/2017-new-wind-energy-record-denmark/

https://www.thelocal.dk/20171206/denmarks-green-energy-grows-faster-than-expected

While India under their conservative BJP government plan to have 57 percent of their electricity from non fossil fuel sources by 2027.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/21/india-renewable-energy-paris-climate-summit-target
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In the first half of 2016, the electricity price for households was 30.88 euro cents per kWh. This decreased the following year to 30.49 euro cents.
​

https://www.statista.com/statistics/418075/electricity-prices-for-households-in-denmark/

That is 38 cents per kWh.

Do you wish to triple our electricity prices?
 
Tim the plumber said:
Yes, taxes justified on the basis of CAGW.
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My point is, numbers can only be compared if you take out taxes and fees. Case in point.. Denmark has some of the cheapest new cars on the planet.. before taxes. After that, well lets just say.. WE ARE NR 1!!!! on the list of most expensive nation when it comes to cars.
 
PeteEU said:
My point is, numbers can only be compared if you take out taxes and fees. Case in point.. Denmark has some of the cheapest new cars on the planet.. before taxes. After that, well lets just say.. WE ARE NR 1!!!! on the list of most expensive nation when it comes to cars.
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Rationalize all you want. We don't care about your excuses.
 
Jack Hays said:
Exposed for the nonsense it is.

[h=3]Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100 - PNAS[/h]www.pnas.org/content/114/26/6722
by CTM Clack - ‎2017 - ‎Cited by 28 - ‎Related articles
Jun 19, 2017 - Christopher T. M. Clack, Staffan A. Qvist, Jay Apt, Morgan Bazilian, Adam R. Brandt, Ken Caldeira, Steven J. Davis, Victor Diakov, Mark A. Handschy, .... Jacobson et al. (11) along with additional colleagues in a companion article (12) attempt to show the feasibility of supplying all energy end uses (in the ...
Click to expand...

According to your study it is possible with 80% decarbonization of the US electric grid.

While I believe the possibilities are higher than that, especially if you look several decades ahead. Because so much is happening right know.

For example, that UK opened its first subsidized free solar power plans thanks to the combination with battery storage. While you also have a new UK wind farm that have much lower government guaranteed price than the guaranteed price for the new Hinkley Point C nuclear power station. That at the same the British government's financial support to renewable energy is much lower than the goverment's support to fossil fuel.

https://www.independent.co.uk/envir...ubsidy-renewable-energy-britain-a7967736.html

While concentrated solar power plants with thermal energy storage, that can produce electricity on demand is already becoming a viable solution.

This CSP project, based on the Independent Power Producer (IPP) model, will generate 700MW of clean energy at a single site. The project, which features the world's tallest solar tower measuring 260 metres and the world's largest thermal energy storage capacity, will provide clean energy to over 270,000 residences in Dubai, reducing 1.4 million tonnes of carbon emissions a year. The CSP project will use two technologies for the production of clean energy: the 600MW parabolic basin complex and the 100MW solar tower over a total area of 43 square kilometres. This project, which features an investment of AED14.2 billion, has achieved the world's lowest Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of USD 7.3 cents per kilowatt hour (kW/h). This is a new global achievement for the UAE.
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https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...ncentrated-solar-power-project-300617349.html

Here in Sweden we have a trial with a house a far north as southern Alaska that will entirely be powered by solar power. That the house will have batteries for short term storage and produce hydrogen for long term storage.

https://translate.google.se/transla...vna-hus-anpassat-for-kallt-klimat/&edit-text=

In Sweden we also have electrified roads now being tested in real traffic at E-road Arlanda and Elväg Gävle.

https://www.vti.se/en/news/electric-roads-now-being-tested-in-real-traffic/

While I think the study, you link to are right about that you shouldn’t discount biofuels. That not all form of biofuels is bad, and biofuels can make the transition to renewable energy cheaper and faster. For example, district heating in Sweden that is mostly powered with biofuels and waste heat from industries. There the biofuels come from residual products from plants such as sawmills and from unused branches and treetops in forestry.

http://www.energimyndigheten.se/en/sustainability/households/heating-your-home/district-heating/
 
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PeteEU said:
The numbers look like they include taxes...which are very high.

Sendt fra min SM-N9005 med Tapatalk
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The interesting thing about Lord of Planar’s link is that the drastic increase of renewable energy during the last decade in Denmark haven’t led to significantly higher cost of electricity for households. Instead the cost have been roughly the same between 2010 and 2017.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/418075/electricity-prices-for-households-in-denmark/

Also, as you wrote taxes can be a reason for the higher prices while also that non-household consumers pay a lot cheaper rate of only EUR 0.082.

Electricity price statistics - Statistics Explained

While also Denmark have invested a lot in energy efficiency and now have an energy consumption per capita is only around half of USA’s energy consumption. Thereby lowering the total cost of energy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_per_capita

Also the continental part of USA is farther south than Denmark and have deserts and other very sunny areas so there are more opportunities for cheap solar power. USA is also less densely populated than Denmark so there are more opportunities for on shore windfarms that produce electricity at a cheaper rate than of shore windfarms. USA also have cheap hydropower.
 
Lord of Planar said:
It does not compare it to today's costs. It might be relatively low cost for renewable energy, but it is not low cost compared to what we spend today. It will be at least 50% greater

No way in hell hydrogen will be cheaper than fuels today.
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The study you linked to compared the cost of 100 percent renewable energy with conventional energy in continental USA and came to this conclusion.

Thus, whereas the 2050 business costs of WWS and conventional electricity are similar, the social (overall) cost of WWS is 40% that of conventional electricity. Because WWS requires zero fuel cost, whereas conventional fuel costs rise over time, long-term WWS costs should stay less than conventional fuel costs.
Click to expand...

Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
 
Bergslagstroll said:
The interesting thing about Lord of Planar’s link is that the drastic increase of renewable energy during the last decade in Denmark haven’t led to significantly higher cost of electricity for households. Instead the cost have been roughly the same between 2010 and 2017.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/418075/electricity-prices-for-households-in-denmark/

Also, as you wrote taxes can be a reason for the higher prices while also that non-household consumers pay a lot cheaper rate of only EUR 0.082.

Electricity price statistics - Statistics Explained

While also Denmark have invested a lot in energy efficiency and now have an energy consumption per capita is only around half of USA’s energy consumption. Thereby lowering the total cost of energy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_per_capita

Also the continental part of USA is farther south than Denmark and have deserts and other very sunny areas so there are more opportunities for cheap solar power. USA is also less densely populated than Denmark so there are more opportunities for on shore windfarms that produce electricity at a cheaper rate than of shore windfarms. USA also have cheap hydropower.
Click to expand...

On the subject of Denmark there is a good article in Forbes
https://www.forbes.com/sites/justin...its-red-hot-solar-energy-market/#2380de8f2cbe
Denmark has a net metering plan, as opposed to a feed in tariff, both are actually toxic to solar growth in my opinion, and will end up limiting solar power.
In net metering, the utility is expected to buy surplus power, at their own retail rate, this increases the cost of goods sold and requires the utility to raise the general rate.
Here is the problem, when the utility raises the general rate to cover the new cost of solar net metering customers, the cost from those customers go up,
because they are "net metered" to the new rate.
 
Bergslagstroll said:
According to your study it is possible with 80% decarbonization of the US electric grid.

While I believe the possibilities are higher than that, especially if you look several decades ahead. Because so much is happening right know.
Click to expand...

From the abstract:

[FONT=&quot]". . . . Jacobson et al. [Jacobson MZ, Delucchi MA, Cameron MA, Frew BA (2015) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(49):15060–15065] argue that it is feasible to provide “low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of WWS [wind, water and solar power] across all energy sectors in the continental United States between 2050 and 2055”, with only electricity and hydrogen as energy carriers. In this paper, we evaluate that study and find significant shortcomings in the analysis. In particular, we point out that this work used invalid modeling tools, contained modeling errors, and made implausible and inadequately supported assumptions. Policy makers should treat with caution any visions of a rapid, reliable, and low-cost transition to entire energy systems that relies almost exclusively on wind, solar, and hydroelectric power."[/FONT]
 
[h=2]Fight the forces of darkness, celebrate PowerHour Tonight![/h]
Remember EarthHour? Tonight is the night to rejoice in electricity from 8.30-9:30pm.
HAH_300px.jpg

Some of those fossil fuels have been waiting for 100 million years to return to the sky.
Things you can do:
  1. Turn on all the lights you can find — Put on the party lights, the patio light, the pool light, the mozzie zappers, unpack those Christmas decorations. Get out your torches. Switch the movement detector spotlights to continuous operation. (Involve the kids — they love to help).Keep reading →

 
Bergslagstroll said:
The interesting thing about Lord of Planar’s link is that the drastic increase of renewable energy during the last decade in Denmark haven’t led to significantly higher cost of electricity for households. Instead the cost have been roughly the same between 2010 and 2017.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/418075/electricity-prices-for-households-in-denmark/

Also, as you wrote taxes can be a reason for the higher prices while also that non-household consumers pay a lot cheaper rate of only EUR 0.082.

Electricity price statistics - Statistics Explained

While also Denmark have invested a lot in energy efficiency and now have an energy consumption per capita is only around half of USA’s energy consumption. Thereby lowering the total cost of energy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_per_capita

Also the continental part of USA is farther south than Denmark and have deserts and other very sunny areas so there are more opportunities for cheap solar power. USA is also less densely populated than Denmark so there are more opportunities for on shore windfarms that produce electricity at a cheaper rate than of shore windfarms. USA also have cheap hydropower.
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Yep on all.
 
PeteEU said:
Yep on all.
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Good luck with the trebling of your green energy tariffs then pete ..... and for what ? :thumbs:

Germany now pays nearly 4 times as much per KwH as the US does due to its over committment to useless renewables. Here in the UK I've seen our energy bills mushroom by 86% in real terms since 2010 on the altar of this politically motivated nonsense. You want to voluntarily impoverish yourself off the back of this AGW garbage then be my guest. Its when you try and volunteer the rest of us of into this overpoliticised green guilt I have problems .... because it has never been even remotely based on any empirically established science
 
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flogger said:
Good luck with the trebling of your green energy tariffs then pete ..... and for what ? :thumbs:

Germany now pays nearly 4 times as much per KwH as the US does due to its over committment to useless renewables. Here in the UK I've seen our energy bills mushroom by 86% in real terms since 2010 on the altar of this politically motivated nonsense. You want to voluntarily impoverish yourself off the back of this AGW garbage then be my guest. Its when you try and volunteer the rest of us of into this overpoliticised green guilt I have problems .... because it has never been even remotely based on any empirically established science
Click to expand...

Taxes account for a large part of the difference.. which is my point. I have yet to find the price of power without all the taxes.

As for renewables.. they are the future, and the earlier you invest in them, the better. A good example was car efficiency. The US had until Obama not changed the minimum requirement for how far a car should go per gallon. The EU has pushed more and more efficient cars for decades. The Americans have always laughed at us over this, until oil hit 150 dollars a barrel. Then suddenly the impact on Europeans was relatively way less than on the gas guzzling Americans... ups!
 
Bergslagstroll said:
By 2050 most of the world could be 100% powered with renewable energy while at the same lead to a net increase of 24 million new jobs, according to a new 2050 roadmap.
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"Roadmap" or 30 year plan?

The deceptive use of language is sublime, overheard in the conspirators headquarters:

"Someone quick, we need a warm fuzzy synonym for 'plan' since everyone is onto us with that one"

"How about 'roadmap' that sounds a lot less ominous, and everyone loves a road trip don't they?"

"By Jove give that man a Marxist red star medal for his lapel, he nailed it"


We have a conclusive case that economic planning leads directly to genocidal nightmares every time it's implemented, The scope of its failures has been nothing less than spectacular.

Do we really want to revisit Mao's cultural revolution, Pol Pot's killing fields, Stalin's iron fisted 5 year plans or Germany's National Socialist's 1000 year Reich that badly?

With respect to 24 million new jobs to provide less energy than we have today, didn't we also have more agricultural jobs before tractors and mechanization wrecked things?

Of course back then life was brutal and short for all but the elite and isn't that just what the green elite are "planning?"

Isn't that what our kids are being brainwashed with in their schools?


 
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